Thursday July 17 2025 Forecast (7:09AM)

82 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21)

One more day in this current stretch of heat and humidity today, but we mark a coming transition with a chance of passing showers and thunderstorms from both a weakening disturbance (late morning to mid afternoon) and a cold front (late afternoon through early evening). Despite some parameters for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms, there exists several parameters limiting such activity, so a little atmospheric struggle ensues and my forecast reflects this by just keeping it as chance of showers and storms with a fairly low risk of isolated severe thunderstorms. Nevertheless, all it takes is one, so keep an eye on the radar through evening. After the cold front goes by, the chance is by the boards, and a cooler, drier air mass arrives overnight. Friday is going to be quite different than I was thinking just a few days ago, when my forecast was for slower timing. Instead of higher humidity and showers/thunderstorms around, it’s just going to be a day of sun and passing clouds, low humidity, and seasonably warm weather – maybe a bit reminiscent of what we saw July 4. High pressure builds in Friday night and Saturday with fair, pleasant weather. A quick-moving disturbance and cold front will bring a round or two of showers and thunderstorms to the region sometime during the first 12 hours of Sunday (but probably only lasting a couple to a few hours in any given location). Timing on this will be nailed down in the next couple updates. Another Canadian air mass arrives Sunday afternoon to be with us through Monday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers / thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 68-75. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, otherwise partly cloudy. Fog patches especially in areas that saw rainfall.Lows 68-75 with similar dew points early then falling dew points through the 60s overnight. Wind SW to W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 83-90. Dew point falls into / through 50s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH mainly morning-midday.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point near 50. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear followed by clouds evening. Cloudy overnight with showers/thunderstorms arriving west to east. Lows 62-69. Dew point rises to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH evening increasing to 10-20 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy – least sun early / more sun from midday onward. Showers/thunderstorms most likely very early, then just a chance of a passing shower. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point drops into 50s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)

Large scale pattern features a ridge in the middle of the US and our area in a northwest flow to its east. During this 5-day period a couple passing disturbances / fronts can bring a shower or thunderstorm, otherwise dry weather dominates with variable temperatures averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)

Indications continue that the pattern changes very little heading through the end of July – northwest flow, limited shower / t-storm chances, variable temperatures averaging not too far from normal overall.

82 thoughts on “Thursday July 17 2025 Forecast (7:09AM)”

    1. 93 yesterday
      76 overnight
      Currently 79, dp 73

      Last night Eric said dew points could be near 80 by this evening. He also had a graphic showing highest dew points ever for Boston which was 79.
      Will we approach or surpass 79????

      Likey NOT, but who knows.

      1. Ww briefly had a dp of 76 yesterday, but most of the day was 72 or 73. BAD enough.

  5. Thanks TK
    Looking forward to the break from the humidity Friday and Saturday and to save a few dollars on the electric bill.

  7. We experienced dew points up to 79 on the Outer Banks last month — and the electric bill was certainly factored into the rental amount!

  8. Last month when we had that heat wave the dew point where I am got up to 82 with a heat index of 113. So far that is the worst of the heat and humidity this summer. Let’s hope that remains the case the rest of this summer.

  9. Currently 81 / 77

    I checked two nearby weather stations, and both had 77 DP.

    I got Wordle in four today.

      1. Yay for you both. I’m still struggling. I have one guess left. Tons of choices on this one

        1. I meant 76 DP.

          “76 dB (decibels) is considered a loud sound level, similar to the noise of a passenger car at 65 mph at a distance of 25 feet or a vacuum cleaner.”

          🙂

        1. Thank you.
          Every time I think I am getting this game I get stumped by what seemed to be a relatively easy word. Oh well. 🙂

      2. There are oodles of words that fit the pattern in your third guess.

        Good job saving the day! 🙂

        1. Thank you. I sure exhausted most of them. I’m very impressed with your four and JPDs also.

  13. Thanks TK. Running three miles in 76 DP is an interesting experience – thankfully the misty for along the water provided slight relief

    1. Wow

      Reading TK’s forecast, 75F dewpoints will largely be taking a break thru month’s end once you get through today.

        1. In the shallow water, out to shoulder depth at the ocean, I’d guess 65F.

          Freshwater lakes, low 70s.

          Surprisingly mild, based on my own expectations.

          There is a steady onshore S wind today, so perhaps that offshore colder water will get sent into the beaches today ??

  17. Yesterday, we had haze and smoke and it was very warm and humid.

    Developed towering cumulus inland and I thought I could see a rain shaft or 2, but as they approached us at the coast, they would fall apart.

    Today, the smoke and haze is gone.

    The west-southwest wind of yesterday seems to be a due south wind today and we can see a lot further visibility wise.

    The last of the stratus is still managing to hang on in the southernmost sky and every once in a while, a stronger southerly wind gust sends air that feels like just came out of a freezer.

  18. My pool is up to 85! Record. Granted a solar cover but it’s a 50,000 gallon pool so it’s a heavy lift to get it that nice and warm

    Feels awesome

    2. And you are here and it is not Winter!!!

      Water temp of 85 is a bit much. 80 is perfect.

      I’m good with anything 68 or higher. Can tolerate down to low 60s. Have been in the ocean with temp as low as 53 !!!! YIKES!!! a real shock to the system!!!!

      ENJOY!!!

  22. Nice breeze today. Eliminates the stagnation. 🙂

    I’d sit outside all day today if I didn’t have to be inside for most of it. Haha!!

  23. 87, 73 here. got to 89 earlier, but NO 90, at least not yet. 🙂

    Mostly cloudy out.

  26. Yesterday was the only recent day that made 90 here.

    Today’s high DP (so far) caps the 7-day swamp wave:
    76, 76, 73, 76, 76, 75, 78

  28. Temps are under-performing today. Not cool by any stretch of the imagination, but not brutally hot either.

    TBH, today is kind of a typical breezy, very warm, muggy summer day, like the zillion we had when I was a kid and since then. Nothing extraordinary.

        1. We in Sutton aim to please.

          But since we tried so very hard, would you mind seeing that the overnight temps underachieve. 😀

  30. Thanks, TK!

    Jean, I, too, experienced a 79-degree dewpoint on the Outer Banks when we were there in 2007. I think the temp reached 100 degrees with that 79 DP. That’s a heat index of 120. That’s one of the hottest days I’ve experienced. I was in Onset on the day in 1975 when New Bedford hit 107, but I don’t think the dewpoint was 79.

    1. Our temperature only reached the high 80’s, and that felt hot enough! Happily the a/c kept up.

  31. I don’t think it’s 65F here with a busy S wind on the south side of Cape Breton Island. Fog has visibility under a 1/4 mile and it’s drizzly and I’m chilly 🙂

    Meanwhile, on the north side of this big island, there’s a ‘heat warning’ and it’s in the 80s with high humidity.

      1. I’ll try 🙂

        My folks had a second home in Eastham on the outer Cape. To this day, I love Cape Cod and the whole New England coast and all of New England !!

        Spending time up here in the summer is cheating !!

        As nice as Cape Cod and anywhere in New England is, it’s even prettier up here. It’s quiet, it’s peaceful, the vast majority of people up here are super friendly and kind. Nearly everyone walking by on the beach offers a greeting.

        Yeah, the gas by liter, and expensive to help pay towards their national health care is a bummer, but you get relief back in the currency exchange.

        There’s very little traffic. Yeah, we created a spot at a beach the other day that the locals knew about but the beach itself was nothing like the beaches at home.

        The music, with a lot of fiddle music gets the mind free and clear.

        Yes, it’s a 12-14 hr drive commitment, but it is so worth it. I guess in some selfish way, I guess I’m glad more people don’t know about it. But it really is cheating to vacation up in cape Breton, PEI, Nova Scotia or New Brunswick. I am so thankful my wife introduced me to it.

        1. I envy you both and love that you are able to return and soak it all in as often as you do.

          I suspect you remember we went as a family to Antigonish in maybe 2007? It’s a whole different world up that way. I’d love to head back

          One highlight….not a major one.,,,was waiting for dinner in a local restaurant and looking up at the TV to see Pete’s weather forecast.

    1. You are not far from my sons and I think the barn where my granddaughter leases her horse

    1. Still, many hours from “crashing”. Sunday is going to be downright AWFUL (73F) according to JR, not to mention frequent showers.

      Is it me, or is this summer much more YUCKIER than last? If you include the recent South Shore flooding, considerably “wetter” as well?

      Also, Eric expects 20+ days of 90. So far it’s been 12 days for Boston. Average is 15 days.

      1. It’s not many hours from crashing. The front has gone through a good portion of the region already and the fall is rather quick behind it. I literally just said it was underway. The dew point is already under 60 in the Berkshires. The dew point at Logan fell from 73 to 64 in UNDER ONE HOUR. So yeah, I think we can definitely see it’s underway.
        This summer is not wetter than last. It’s drier but a small amount if you take June to mid July and use Boston as a base of comparison.
        It’s been marginally more humid than last – but almost the same, so no big difference there. While true that there was a significant flooding event in parts of the region, it was fairly localized, and only bumps up the rain for the season in comparison to normal in a small area – which is actually VERY common. The summer features convective events. Convection is often localized.

        I am on the fence with Sunday’s DP. Maybe 70? Mostly 60s. And I also think, as stated in my discussion and to be repeated in my next update, Sunday will be rain-free the vast majority of the day.

        I also disagree with Eric’s thoughts on 90+ days. Yes we have a long way to go but there is no real heat in sight now through month’s end, and reliable long range guidance isn’t showing a whole lot of sustained heat for August.

        June was drier than average across the region. Boston had only about 1/3 of it’s normal rainfall.

        July has featured a fair amount of humid weather but has not been excessively hot, for Boston just a couple degrees above the average through mid month, with a departure of +/- 2 not unusual at all for half a month. Also using Boston as an example, through July 17 it’s only been wetter than average by about 0.30 inch. That’s entirely unimpressive. Now, even with that slightly wetter than average July so far, the reason I told you summer 2024 was wetter was because of the difference between June 2024, which was wet, and June 2025, which was quite dry.

  35. Atlantic tropics will remain quiet for the next 2 to 4 weeks due to MJO being in phases unfavorable for development, and the ongoing Atlantic Nina – large area of below normal SST’s.

    Might see shift to more favorable MDR conditions around mid August, but that may be quite a slow process.

    I don’t think the forecasts have been adjusted downward far enough.

    1. The weather that was hanging around yesterday to your west?? There was a lot of it.

    2. That is what moved across northern New England yesterday. Better dynamics up there.

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