Wednesday July 16 2025 Forecast (8:24AM)

69 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)

The heat / humidity combo peaks today under high pressure aloft with surface high pressure offshore. While we keep the humidity into Thursday, the heat gets knocked back a peg as we have more clouds along with shower and thunderstorm chances as a disturbance and cold front approach. There will probably be 2 our 3 rounds of shower and storm chances through evening, and the potential does exist for a few severe storms. The cold front that I was eyeing for late week passes by more quickly than originally anticipated, and this allows me to forecast the heat easing and the humidity dropping noticeably on Friday, with the showers and storms out of the forecast for that day. Even cooler and drier air will arrive for Saturday via Canada as high pressure builds into the region. Quick-moving systems means that next disturbance arrives Sunday bringing the chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the region – though it looks like more time will be rain-free than wet on that day. Timing may even be quick enough that most of the wet weather threat is the first half of the day, but that is TBD, so check updates in the next few days for Sunday’s forecast fine-tune!

TODAY: Plenty of sun & a few popcorn clouds. Highs 87-94, 79-86 South Coast. Dew point 68-75. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog in low elevations. Lows 69-76. Dew point 67-73. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers / thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 68-75. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, otherwise partly cloudy. Fog patches especially in areas that saw rainfall Lows 68-75 with similar dew points. Wind SW to W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 83-90. Dew point falls through 60s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 59-66. Dew point falls to upper 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point sub-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds arrive overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point rises to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 80-87. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

Large scale pattern features a ridge in the middle of the US and our area in a northwest flow to its east. During this 5-day period a couple passing disturbances / fronts can bring a shower or thunderstorm, otherwise dry weather dominates with variable temperatures averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

Strongest indications are that the pattern changes very little heading through late July – northwest flow, limited shower / t-storm chances, variable temperatures averaging not too far from normal overall.

69 thoughts on “Wednesday July 16 2025 Forecast (8:24AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Made 90 here yesterday with DP high of 75

    73 overnight.
    Currently 83, dp 73 Temperature is climbing steadily.
    Sure looks like a STINKER!!!

    1. Those dp’s are more typical for that area during our humid stretches. Won’t get that high up here. 68-75 across the region today, similar to yesterday.

      Pay attention to the major stations. Most home weather stations misfire on dew point calculations and they come out 2 to 5 degrees too high.

    1. I’m not convinced severe storms don’t occur further east tomorrow. Not widespread, more isolated, but the chance is there.

  7. The outlook yesterday had the marginal risk further east. Will see if that changes with the update coming out around 1:30 this afternoon.

  8. Current Logan dp 73 with Norwood at 75

    85 here with dp 73.

    I’d say my dp sensor is right in line. (actually it is not a sensor,
    it takes the temperature and the relative humidity and calculates the dew point. So to be more accurate, my humidity sensor is in line.) 🙂

    1. Your #’s tend to look decent, but many home stations are crap for DP’s. You can usually tell by looking at surrounding official stations.

      2. I do that with the two Nws stations nearby. I am not sure I trust one of those Either so lean toward the second.

        I don’t trust my not expensive accurite. When I’m not lazy, I put the kestrels out and absolutely trust them.

  9. After a mix of sun and high clouds most of yesterday, the high cloud veil shifted southeast leaving a sunny sky for sunset with a wind that went calm. It was a much milder/warmer evening than the previous night.

    This morning, the SW wind is back with haze/smoke and the humidity is up, along with a quickly climbing temp. The humidex forecast today is 35C inland, 30C at the shore with air temps 30C inland and 27C at the shore.

    We are off to a nearby peninsula that has a few sandy beaches. Pretty noticeable tide rise/fall of 5ft, I like the different looking beach every several hours.

  10. Thank you, TK. Glad to see Friday is clear. I’m meeting friends for an outdoor coffee and visit.

  12. Four again for Wordle.

    A friend of Mac’s and mine has come up with a new way to have fun with Wordle. I use the same two words to start but switched to two new ones a bit ago. He set up a spreadsheet and is trying to guess what my words are.

      1. It is another odd word.

        I really admire your determination. Remember, the rest of us have been playing for a very long time so have some form of a system. I’m not convinced there is any system that really works.

      2. 🙁 I haven’t been able to play since last Friday with the slow signal. That’s ok !!

        I try to start with a word that has 3 vowels, but based on my vocab, I’m running out of those words and eventually get tired using the same ones each time 🙂

        1. You’ll catch up. Much more fun(dy)to enjoy the spectacular area you are in

          I try to get all vowels in first two words. The two word I’m using now do not include a sometimes vowel although they have done better for me than the two I’ve used since the start.

          Seriously, that was a really lame play on words.

        2. Me as well. I almost always try a new starting word and then I’ll use a tried and true word for the next try.
          I have even been practicing playing older past wordle games. i was doing better, till today. I drew a BLANK
          for today and It appears I do that often.

          My mind just can’t figure out what word will fit the conditions. It just refuses me!!! then when I see the word it is like SHIT! I should have gotten that!!! Very frustrating.

          What really pisses me off is that I am NOT stupid by a long shot, but my brain just dioes not work that way at all. It just doesn’t. But funny thing is, every now and then the word just jumps out at me like a neon sign at night.

          1. You just described exactly what I hear from others and what I say myself. The holy shit is a common reaction when you see the word you missed. And the word jumping out is what I call midnight madness. All of a sudden it just occurs to me. I like to think Mac is playing too since there is no reasonable explanation why some of the words would just occur to me

            1. Well that may be confirmed. I just had 11 minutes left on the washer and the dryer. As I’ve said 11:11 is Mac’s number ❤️

  15. Logan is at it again with yet another sea breeze.
    They may be denied 90 again today, barring a 5PM wind shift
    that boasts the temperature to 90.

    1. I’m about to brave the elements. Need to do some errands. Probably about a 2 mile walk in total. I’m certainly not running in this weather.

  17. AP has a story out today about much of the country having a record breaking heat wave right now.

    Except, we’re not. Past 24 hours average temp departure for the lower 48…

    -3.6°F

    1. They’re just following the president’s lead. Just keep lying until everyine believes it.

      1. I don’t think AP. It has a center slightly left media bias rating. Although I can’t fine the comment.

        TK I am chuckling because I am sure my question doesn’t surprise you. Are you writing to corporate? I know you are pressed for time and sure understand why. I’m happy to get you email addresses. You can copy and paste from here.

        1. Actually I’m going to create a letter / email that I can send to multiple places. Just not putting a ton of time into it yet.

  18. Just went for a swim in the 76° ocean here in Narragansett on the RI. South coast. With the high dewpoints almost feels like being down at my favorite beach Siesta Key Beach in Sarasota.
    Have a great rest of your day everyone.

      1. So thankful for the ACs we have whirring!!!!!
        20,000 btus in total blasting away. Have them all on LOW
        and keeping the house cool. Amazing!!! It is keeping 3 large rooms, the bathroom and a large hallway all cool, The other rooms are a SAUNA!!!!

  21. Back home after doing errands in this wonderful heat. Oh, how I love it … not.

    There’s a breeze, except it feels like a lot of hot air blowing around.

    I’m now a washcloth.

    I’ll leave you with Robin Williams imitating Walter Cronkite on today’s “hot and shitty” weather:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhDIuVjbbWE

    1. Excellent in 4, not the poor goat.

      re: Wordle yesteryday’s word

      After 3 guesses, I had the last 4 letters in the correct order.
      I thought with absolute certainty that the word was
      MOIST! NOPE that was 4 guesses. Ok, must be JOIST!!!
      Nope!!! it was freaking FOIST, A word I use 100 times a day, NOT NOT NOT!!!!

      A freakishly frustrating game!!!!!!

  23. Another news headline…

    “Dexter, a possible tropical storm…”

    WAIT! STOP RIGHT THERE!

    What is wrong with that headline?

    1. Let’s see now…. since it still only had a 40% chance of EVER becoming a tropical storm, seem premature to call it a possible tropical storm. The Trumpification of America. Whoever did that might as well have used a sharpie and drawn the cone for it while they were at it.

      1. Actually, it’s only 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression, never mind Tropical Storm, which is when it would get named.

  26. Friday gets better
    Saturday fantastic! 🙂
    Sunday back to humidity (DPs 70) 🙁

    Oh well. Summer 2025 in a nutshell.

    1. Sunday’s dp will be below 70. And you’re talking about 2 out of 3 days there of very low humidity. That’s pretty darn good for a New England summer.

      Media seems to have made people think we never have humidity and having it unusual somehow. But, they do this every year now.

  27. A 7.3 magnitude earthquake was recorded off the Alaska Peninsula on Wednesday afternoon, July 16, prompting a tsunami advisory.

    The U.S. Geological Survey recorded the earthquake off Sand Point, Popof Island, which is located in the center of the Alaska Peninsula, at just after 12:30 p.m. local time.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) initially issued a tsunami warning for the majority of the Alaska Peninsula, spanning up into the southern-most part of Alaska’s mainland toward Anchorage. The alert was later downgraded to an advisory by 1:50 p.m. local time.

      1. Just googled. Turns out it was biggest. Yikes A neighbors teen nephew from Alaska spent the summer with her. I dated him for a bit.

        The biggest earthquake ever recorded in Alaska, and the second largest in the world, was the Great Alaska Earthquake of 1964, a magnitude 9.2 megathrust earthquake that occurred on March 27, 1964.

  28. My fan is just blowing stale warm air around. But luckily my apartment never gets hot. It’s just that during summer I mostly keep the windows shut. I love fresh air, but there is nothing fresh about the air right now. I keep my windows open for a couple of hours in the morning during fall, winter, and spring, but never during summer.

  30. 78/74 at 9:30. I will be in the poor house very soon Thanksto electric bills

    Anyone have a room to rent?? I’m very quiet

  32. Though there has been reports of Hammerhead sharks and Tiger Sharks as far north as Cape Cod in the past, the last 5 years, they have been seen bull sharks now expanding northward due to warmer temperatures ( now seen as far north as Long island.) This coming from some of my shark friends on the east coast.

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