Sunday July 20 2025 Forecast (7:59AM)

143 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 20-24)

Yesterday was the pick of the weekend for the vast majority of people. Today is the pick of the weekend if you like higher humidity, less sun, and at least the chance of a thunderstorm. (And not that this next statement is relevant to the forecast, but I pick both days – haha!) … But writing in favor of the likings of the “weather majority”, the high pressure area that brought us very nice weather yesterday has departed and today we’ll be dealing with an area of low pressure passing to our northwest, bringing us higher humidity and some unsettled weather. Our wet weather / storm chances will be limited though, and for any given location most of today will be rain-free. A warm front passing by this morning brings the best chance of showers to the South Coast and Cape Cod, but a lot of this will stay over water just to the south, and the last of it should exit that region by noon. Otherwise, a cloud canopy covers much of the region to start the day, but later this morning into this afternoon a clearing trend will allow for a fair amount of sunshine – with that sun also reaching southeastern areas later. This means that your Sunday turns quite nice, despite the higher humidity, because a ventilating breeze will accompany the increase in sunshine too. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the northwest later in the day, and across NY and northern New England we’ll see showers and thunderstorms pop up and eventually organize into a broken line (perhaps 2 lines as some short range guidance has hinted at that). For the majority of the WHW forecast area though I am expecting the impact to be from one broken line of showers and storms passing through from northwest to southeast generally from 3:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. Note! That 6-hour window does not mean you see rain and thunder for 6 hours. It means that during that 6 hour window, the front and its accompanying convective activity move from northwest to southeast across the region. Pick any given location and a shower or thunderstorm would visit for 30 to 90 minutes, in general – with a tendency to be more to the shorter duration of that range. Additional, a broken line of convection can have gaps in it which means that some areas can be grazed or even entirely missed – seeing little or nothing. This is the nature of convective activity, so monitor radar if you have plans in the time window of concern. For areas that do see the stronger storms, expect brief torrential rain, potentially frequent lightning, possible small hail, and the biggest threat being strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. All of this ends by late evening as the front clears the coast. Then cue the Canadian air mass which moves in for Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds southeastward into our region. Temperatures fall below normal during this time with very dry air as well. Heading to midweek, Wednesday and Thursday will feature fair weather and a warming trend as high pressure slides offshore.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy this morning with scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket. Sun / cloud mix this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms becoming more likely from northwest to southeast mid afternoon on. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, some higher gusts, especially afternoon. Thunderstorms can contain strong, gusty winds.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 54-61. Dew point drops below 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 73-80. Dew point in 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Dew point in 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point in 40s Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SSW under 10 MPH.,

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 25-29)

Brief heat / humidity spike July 25 with late-day t-storm potential from approaching cold front. Early look at the July 26-27 weekend shows fair weather July 26 and unsettled weather with a disturbance on July 27, but this far in advance timing is not super-certain. Fair, dry weather would follow that later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

West to northwest air flow east of a central US ridge, with trough in Atlantic Canada. This pattern is dry much of the time, brief shower / t-storm chances from passing disturbances, and features variable temperatures with no sustained heat.

143 thoughts on “Sunday July 20 2025 Forecast (7:59AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    This next Canadian airmass is even cooler than the last. I see your temp forecast for under 80F Tuesday with 40s dps.

    They are saying Tuesday up here with sunshine struggles to get to 70F. 🙂

    1. Yes. And we probably see several more of these types of Canadian surges heading from late July into August as well. Originally, I felt this could be a hotter pattern with the ridge slightly further east and a less amplified eastern Canadian trough. But medium range guidance misfired on both of those. While we can see brief spikes of heat – like we may see next Friday, for example, the predominant pattern is the lack of sustained heat.

    1. It’s actually been quite a nice summer in much of the region. Mainstream media has tried to convince you otherwise. 😉

  4. One disturbance buried BELOW 10S in the Atlantic – 10% chance of development through the next 7 days.

    MJO & Atlantic Nina continue to keep the Atlantic tropical season shut down for now – but it’s early yet.

  5. Vicki, I bike pretty much everywhere, often with a group and sometimes for research or charity. I’ve done numerous rides for multiple sclerosis all over the state.

    The situation for bikers is much better than it was in, say, 1980. Some parts now look a tiny bit like the Netherlands, though in Holland there are dedicated bike lanes and paths just for bicycles everywhere.

  6. Thank you, TK

    I also like both types of weather. Sadly, as I get older, both don’t seem to like me

    1. One of my coworkers is dealing with increasingly aggravating results from both dry air and high humidity – that doesn’t leave much room for a happy medium!

    1. Ditto for me, 4. Almost had it in 3. Just chose the wrong word out of several possibilities. Better than yesterday for me!

    1. SPC Discussion

      …Northeast…
      Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop across the
      Northeast today as temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in
      the upper 60s, and as mid-level temperatures gradually cool through
      the day. As the cold front advances east into this uncapped airmass,
      scattered thunderstorms should develop. Shear of 30 to 35 knots and
      relatively long/straight hodographs will support the potential for
      supercells. Weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting
      factor for large hail, but the overall favorable shear with strong
      venting aloft and potential supercells may support some isolated
      large hail.

      Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, both from initial
      cells and also from any clusters which develop. Any stronger
      clusters with bowing segments could support a better organized
      damaging wind swath. The greatest wind damage threat will likely
      exist from western Massachusetts to far southern Maine.

  11. Thanks TK
    Humidity is back and the sun is out. Now just wait and see what develops later on today. As JpDave posted SPC continues to have most of SNE in a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather today. After today three real nice summer days.

    1. I’ll eat any flavor of ice cream, but I must admit, vanilla remains my favorite. Had some last evening, so won’t have it today. NOT good for me as much as I love it.

      It’s my favorite food in the whole world!!!!

      1. I’m a vanilla fan too – I really enjoy Tillamook.

        Vanilla is especially good at this time of year when we have lots of fresh berries to mix in with it. Then I can even convince myself that it has some positive health benefits! 🙂

    2. Brighams vanilla with its chocolate sauce. Yum. But has to be at Brighams. Sadly, the grocery store option is just not the same.

      1. corn syrup instead of cane sugar. Most brands do that and it RUINS the ice cream!!!!

        Our fav brand in stores in Breyer’s All Natural Vanilla.
        Haagen Daz is next.

    3. I like several / many flavors but fave is and always will be vanilla … it’s just total childhood for me. But I do like coffee, black raspberry, a chocolate/vanilla combo. I’ve come to appreciate strawberry more.

      Last night I had coffee soft serve at Salisbury Beach. 🙂

      1. Son left Friday for the yearly HB vacation week until next Friday, looking like a good beach week there Tk . We may do a day trip midweek my wife & I .

      2. I’m also a vanilla person, but I really like Cake Batter as well. Just had some at Cold Stone a few nights ago.

  13. Tornado threat is minimal, north and west of WHW forecast area.

    Our main threat is straight line / downburst type winds from embedded stronger cells in a broken line (or two line segments) later on.

  14. What’s with this warm front.
    Seems to be taking forever to pass through. Any chance it doesn’t make it???

    2. Very easily. High pressure moved offshore and the wind shifted to a more southerly direction. Happens quite often, actually, especially during summer.

  17. Coffee ice cream, which is difficult to find in Canada.

    We were in a Sobie’s and with a smile, I looked at the ice cream section, not a one brand of coffee.

    Maple walnut though, which I really like and feel like it tastes like coffee ice cream with the walnuts.

  18. History does NOT always repeat itself, but it can be an indicator of what’s to come. The Sox record after 100 games:

    2023: 53-47
    2024: 53-47
    2025: 53-47

    The Red Sox have been a notoriously underperforming team post All Star break since 2022. There are many reasons. My number one reason – and this, I think, applies to this year’s team, too – is relative lack of talent up and down the roster. But a much rougher second half schedule, certainly in the weeks immediately following the All Star break, plays a role, too. This year’s schedule is even more difficult than last year.

    We’ll see how it plays out. I hope for the best but am prepared for disappointment.

    2. I like the realistic view point you have on this.

      They are right where I figured there would be. Meanwhile you have that big part of the fanbase that declares them as the Kings of Suckville and declare that they’ll never watch the team again (which is 99.9999999% always not the truth as they usually continue watching with the next game). This is why I always encourage the fair weather fans to please keep their word and stop watching. The team doesn’t need them. 🙂

      They need real fans, like you, me, SAK, and others here and elsewhere. 🙂

      Admittedly, I do NOT watch / listen to every game. There are many, and my schedule / lifestyle don’t allow it, but every night if they have played somewhere in there I find time to watch the entire game summary / highlights.

      The only teams that I really listen to / watch every game is Patriots and Bruins, even if it’s on a DVR-delay sometimes. 🙂

  19. Oh, we took $100 Canadian out and it cleared as $75 from our account and then a $64 dinner hit as $49. So, that’s a benefit until you need fuel, lol. $1.459 per liter. And with the conversion to gallons …… expensive. It’s nice being unhooked from the trailer cause then the truck goes back to 27 mpg, whereas it’s about 9 mpg when we are towing.

  20. I just visited TWC’s web page for the first time in a while.

    Back in the earlier days of the net, coinciding with when the channel / network was very good, they had an awesome web page – simple, but comprehensive, easy interaction, minimal bells and whistles, attractive, but not distracting. It gave you an easy pathway to what you wanted to see, while subtly advertising the rest of itself without shoving itself into your face.

    Today? Ouch. Not good. At all. Needs a retro-style redesign, badly. I’m hoping that becomes the new craze again at some point. Back to basics. People will be happier with sites like that.

    1. The activity starts to our north and west today. Outlined that in my discussion.

      I’m guessing you don’t really buy my forecast today. 🙂

      Also, to clarify, I did not say that everybody would be impacted later today. Broken line of convection expected. It starts as individual cells / clusters and than organizes to some degree.

      Timing / location … all the usual factors play in.

      There are going to be people that are upset that they didn’t get 3.75 inches of rain, 1 1/2 inch hail, and the tree in their back yard struck by lightning right before it was ripped out of the ground by a tornado. 😉

      Also, you’re looking at current radar, 10:45 a.m., which depicts much of the leftover from last night’s / yesterday’s convective activity, and where it is now. Probably a good idea to let the sun we get in a while go to work and help fire off today’s convection, which won’t happen until sometime this afternoon, as noted.

      1. Nah, not that.
        I’ve been looking at model simulations. and some, not all, have the main convection to the North.
        Of course, we’ll have to wait and see how it all shakes out.

        This is one set up where, we could get a nasty storm right here in the city, not to say it will happen, just that it could.

        1. HRRR & RRFS both depict things similarly to how I described them – although with slight differences between the 2 models.

  22. We now are into the sun / cloud mix stage west of the I-95 belt, while it remains mostly cloudy in most areas from the belt eastward, as expected (hence the wording on my forecast above). The sun / cloud mix area will drift eastward as we move through midday, and eventually we should see longer periods of sun. This will provide some of the fuel for t-storm chances later today. That activity has yet to develop, and will do so starting around 1:00 or 2:00 p.m. outside the WHW forecast area, and then begin its trek through the forecast area in the fashion I described in my discussion this morning. 🙂

  23. Hi JPD. I may have mentioned that My granddaughter is retraining a 19 year old large pony (Hope). Hope was rescued by the barn owner seven years ago from A kill auction. Hopes life before rescue was not a good one. Even after seven years of rescue, Hope was terrified of humans. She would literally throw herself into the back of her stall when anyone was near. Once out in the paddock for the day, it took under and hour to catch her to bring in. She was so afraid of what would happen when a human got near

    My granddaughter is full leasing Hope and has been working with her since November. They are bonded in such an amazing way.

    Kisses https://streamable.com/0nwy4g

    To lie down leaves a horse at its most vulnerable. https://streamable.com/3qnlol

    When Hope hears my granddaughter walk into the barn every day, she now greets her with a loud Winnie https://streamable.com/cnh23w

    1. Wow! Those are all special!!!

      You would really enjoy this movie if you haven’t seen it.

      WINDSTORM, available for free on Amazon Prime. (A German film dubbed in English)

      Here is a Trailer with English subtitles, but it is dubbed decently in English on Prime.

      https://www.google.com/search?q=windstorm+trailer+english&client=firefox-b-1-d&sca_esv=b76488d702878571&ei=wgd9aJObNYKhptQPr9mJWQ&oq=Windstorm+Trailer&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiEVdpbmRzdG9ybSBUcmFpbGVyKgIIADIKEAAYsAMY1gQYRzIKEAAYsAMY1gQYRzIKEAAYsAMY1gQYRzIKEAAYsAMY1gQYRzIKEAAYsAMY1gQYRzIKEAAYsAMY1gQYR0jxFFAAWABwAXgBkAEAmAEAoAEAqgEAuAEByAEAmAIBoAKJAZgDAIgGAZAGBpIHAzAuMaAHALIHALgHAMIHAzYtMcgHhAE&sclient=gws-wiz-serp#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:8606ea0d,vid:a4Rq2_V9kgo,st:0

  28. Norton NWS Discussion concerning this afternoon and evenening:

    This afternoon and evening…

    The mid level shortwave moves to the east by late morning and expect
    showers and t-storms will be exiting the Cape/Islands by midday with
    subsidence leading to some clearing this afternoon. Warm and humid
    airmass will lead to increasing instability with CAPES 1000-2000
    J/kg ahead of an approaching cold front so expect scattered t-storms
    will develop and move southward into SNE. While mid level lapse
    rates are poor, favorable 0-6km shear 35-40 kt and modest forcing
    along the cold front will lead to storm organization and potential
    for scattered severe t-storms this afternoon, with best chance in
    the interior where updraft helicities are greatest. CSU ML probs and
    Nadocast both increased severe probs for this afternoon. Given
    linear forcing along the cold front and shear vectors mostly
    parallel to the cold front, expect mostly line segments and clusters
    with damaging wind the primary threat, but can`t rule out hail with
    with any mid level rotators. We think tornado risk is rather low as
    low level winds/shear are weak but any discrete storm early on will
    have to be monitored. Timing of strongest storms will be mostly 4-8
    pm, with weakening convection approaching the south coast this
    evening 8-10 pm.

    1. Way upstate NY at a music camp in the woods. We were allowed to watch all together on the one TV in the camp. What a stunning event!

  33. The extreme bulk of the warm frontal rain blob is a MISS. Staying offshore.

    This, for about the 35th and hopefully final time shows that…

    1) Futurecasts based on models for something detailed beyond 48 hours should never be shown on TV, at least not without education about it, emphasizing its limitations. (I stand by this opinion STRONGLY). Sadly, news directors are obsessed with animations of pretty colors.

    2) Yes, rain misses too, actually more often than snow, by default.

    Now turning attention to the late-day threat. Initial plan for me is to to the NH Seacoast. That may change depending on how things evolve in real time.

  34. In other news, everything is happening exactly as expected regarding the transition of the cloudier sky to the mixed one, and the influx of high humidity.

    1. They’ll probably issue one. The parameters are borderline but there.

      And given the definition of a WATCH, I’d say yes, issue it.

      1. That makes sense. Like you say, it is a watch and not a warning. A little less than 45 minutes to go.

        I thought for sure there would be a watch by now. Oh well.
        It will do what it will do.

        1. Given the history of this thing upstream (near PWM, and near the MA / NY border), the threat is there, and a watch should be coming momentarily. Either way, we need to watch for severe weather over the next several hours, from NW to SE.

  37. You know what I am not a fan of? Well, I’ll tell you…

    “There’s a 60% chance that SPC will issue a watch, etc. etc. blah blah blah” … Overkill. Superfluous. Either ISSUE the watch, or DON’T issue it. It’s that simple. Why does everything have to be prefaced and qualified? There was a simple way to do this without confusing people, and they’re moving further and further away from it.

    If conditions warrant a watch, issue a watch.

    If conditions don’t warrant a watch, don’t issue a watch.

    How is this difficult?

    Another thing to put in my complaint letters. 😉

    1. Great video. Thank you. I shared a short blurb about the history above. I had graduated both high school and Katharine Gibbs liberal arts program. We gathered as a family around the tv in my parents room. I still remember the goosebumps

      It was a testament to our being able to do hard things. But also to our ability to come together as a country and world even during the tumultuous 60s

  40. Mesoscale discussion was taken down. No watch issued.
    (Unless it is in the process since the MD was taken down)

  42. Thanks TK. Have your mom and whole family in my thoughts!

    We are truly getting towards “year without a summer” territory here in Southern California. Which, when you live somewhere it’s normally 90-100+ every day in the summer, and all we’ve been making is 80-90 with low humidity, means it’s been absolutely gorgeous. This week will be even cooler.

    I’m getting married in the MetroWest area on Saturday. Indoors but would certainly appreciate a nice weather day 🙂 weird to think I’d be the one unaccustomed to the heat but Friday is gonna be pretty rough on me I think…

    2. Congratulations WxW! Hopefully come Saturday a strong cold front comes through for you…DRY of course! 🙂

    3. My very best wishes to you and your bride for many decades of love and happiness , WxWatcher. Positive thoughts for your wedding day weather.

    4. A whole lot of the US has been cooler this summer than last but very few people actually know about that because of the media, which is highly disappointing.

      One of the reasons there have been so many flash flood events is due to COOLER air aloft in much of the Plains & Midwest due to lack of ridging. Cooler aloft, more unstable, more storms, more rain, more flooding. Science at work, eh?

      Most importantly, CONGRATULATIONS and ALL THE BEST!! Enjoy your special day! Hope you can still check in here. 🙂

  43. I love ice cream year round, even in the dead of winter, and my favorite is VANILLA! 🙂

  44. Vicki, wasn’t Katherine Gibbs mostly a secretarial school?

    Just curious, later on were men allowed? 😉

    1. It was an Exceptional secretarial school. Graduates were offered top jobs. Its base school was in nyc. It had a one year course or two year liberal arts. I opted for the two year. We had professors from BU and Harvard, etc.

      It didn’t keep up with “word processing” and other tech advances. I seem to remember it having a curriculum change and males did attend.

  46. On this date in 1969, my family was in a rental cottage on Cape Cod. The cottage had no TV. Earlier in the day, my dad slipped out and returned with a rented TV and rabbit-ear antenna. This was so out of character that my siblings and I still talk about it. It’s almost as if landing on the moon was secondary to my dad’s actions!

    🙂

  47. Sorry if this has been shared.

    Issued by National Weather Service
    Boston, MA
    4:09 PM EDT Sun, Jul 20, 2025

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 530 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

    IN CONNECTICUT THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

    IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT

    HARTFORD TOLLAND WINDHAM

    IN MASSACHUSETTS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

    IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS

    WORCESTER

    IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

    MIDDLESEX NORFOLK SUFFOLK

    IN NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

    ESSEX

    IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

    BRISTOL PLYMOUTH

    IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

    FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE

    IN RHODE ISLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

    IN NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND

    BRISTOL KENT PROVIDENCE

    IN SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND

    NEWPORT WASHINGTON

    THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BLOCK ISLAND, BOSTON, BRISTOL, BROCKTON, FALL RIVER, FITCHBURG, FOXBOROUGH, FRAMINGHAM, GLOUCESTER, GREENFIELD, HARTFORD, LAWRENCE, LOWELL, NEW BEDFORD, NEWPORT, NORTHAMPTON, PLYMOUTH, PROVIDENCE, PUTNAM, QUINCY, SPRINGFIELD, TAUNTON, UNION, VERNON, WARWICK, WESTERLY, WILLIMANTIC, AND WORCESTER.

    1. Avoiding the sweep was very important! 🙂

      Hope they can do better with the Phillies.

        1. Your ace is supposed to STOP losing streaks. Looks like Crochet fits the bill!!!

  50. IS the action going to split the uprights and send a batch North of Boston and another one South of Boston? Wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

  51. Big win for the Sox. Crochet may not have had his best stuff, but he had enough to win. Two homers for Abreu. He is a streaky hitter (as is Rafaela) and reminds me a little of Brian Daubach. When he’s on fire, he’s hard to stop. But he can also go stone cold. Let’s hope he’s into one of his hot grooves.

  53. I’ve always found the phrase “under the weather” a bit odd. I looked it up and here’s what it says about the origin:

    If someone is feeling sick or sad, they might describe themselves as being “under the weather.” Where did this common phrase come from? Its origin may have to do with sailing. Commenting on the origins of this phrase, the website The Phrase Finder mentions that in older times, when a sailor was feeling seasick, he would be sent below deck so he could get away from being under the harsh weather.

  55. My lightning pro thunder sound warning is impressive With iPods….especially with one in each ear. I thought a bomb had gone off inside

  56. Sky just opened up here. Clouds etc look VERY impressive south of here in CT and RI

        1. Did you split the uprights too??

          And curious folks would like to know what the splash was 😉

  59. Wondering if these will hold on all the ay to the South Coast. We do have a marine layer but it’s rather still and hardly a seabreeze – very high humidity

  63. Torrentially rained for about 10 mins and dropped over a half inch of rain. Rain rates were over 4 inches per hour at one point.

    1. Cape and Islands have been slow to recover. Also there seems to be a lag effect with these maps … we will see on Thursday whether things look better or not.

  66. I also had HOOD vanilla bean ice cream with leftover coconut cake for dessert during the storm.

    1. I was just looking at the radar. Looks as if several of our south shore folks were able to enjoy…..Sue??

      1. Wind swept , sideways rain & dark as hell . I could barely see the road

  68. There is a phenomenal light show to my SE. It has to be from the marshfield area.

    1. There was some lightning but I did not see anything crazy , minimal thunder

  69. Missed the storm come through Coventry earlier as we were driving back from a softball tournament in Swansea. Just hit some light rain showers on the way back in NW RI and NE CT. Brilliant pink sunset sky when we got home though. Had one branch down in the front yard. My son said it wasn’t too bad, brief heavy rain and non-severe wind gusts.

      1. It was a three day tournament and they had a great weekend. Went 6-1, the only loss being the championship game today vs the Hudson Demolition, 5-3. My daughter did have the game winning hit in extra innings in the semi-final game which was fun to watch.

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