Friday May 23 2025 Forecast (6:52AM)

97 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 23-27)

An impressive late May storm system delivered a healthy rainfall to the region yesterday into early today including some potent thunderstorms for portions of southeastern MA. While wind gusts were strong at times, the rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches (even a few higher amounts) were the more notable aspect of the system, and while some minor flooding occurred, this rainfall should be what finishes off any moderate drought that still existed in our region, putting us in a much better place heading toward summer regarding that. But that’s something to monitor longer-term. In the shorter-term, the low pressure area that brought us these conditions will still have an impact on the region going into the long weekend. We’ll be under the influence of its circulation, even though it weakens and lifts into Maine and eventually Atlantic Canada. Because we are talking about a “vertically stacked” (mature surface low pressure aligned with its upper level counterpart), and no powerful jet stream moving it along, the entire process of ridding ourselves of it is slow. However, with time, it aids in improving the weather, helping to draw drier air into our region. At first though, this will be less apparent with some drizzle and a few showers around today, and a tongue of moisture even increasing the rainfall coverage for several hours this evening / tonight. Saturday we’ll keep a lot of cloud cover around, but the shower coverage will be less again. Although some of the scattered ones that do occur can be a little heavier than what’s around today, favoring midday to mid afternoon. Behind these we see an attempt at some clearing and may see some sun before the day’s over Saturday, but additional cloudiness still associated with the storm’s circulation will not allow for complete clearing, even Sunday, which will be a nicer day overall. Chilly air still lingering aloft means that I can’t rule out pop up isolated showers Sunday, but I would not alter any outdoor plans because of that forecast other than being aware of the slight chance. Memorial Day itself, Monday, will feature fair weather as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. I’ve been skeptical of this being the start of a fair weather stretch, but the trend on reliable guidance has been to build that high into New England and keep fair weather going on Tuesday next week, so I’ll lean into this trend for now.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Chance of passing showers. Highs 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy through mid afternoon with isolated to scattered showers. Partly sunny late-day. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing shower. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

This is not a high confidence forecast at this time. Leaning toward high pressure dominating with fair weather May 28 and a little increase in moisture with a pop up shower chance from a more southerly flow May 29. Somewhat unsettled with a low pressure trough and frontal system traversing the region May 30-31, but does not like a big storm system. June would begin with fair weather if this scenario played out as prognosticated. That’s already more specific than I’d like to be for a 6 to 10 day forecast, so keep track of updates for some changes / adjustments to this outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 2-6)

A hint of a weaker block (high pressure to north / low pressure to south) leaves this longer range forecast period very uncertain at this point. Leaning toward the cooler side of average with enough high pressure for mostly dry weather, but with very low confidence.

97 thoughts on “Friday May 23 2025 Forecast (6:52AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    From meso west, I see 3.45 inches 24 hour rainfall for Logan.
    Pretty impressive.

    Wind, not so much. I think I saw a gust to 44 mph at Logan,, but that was about it.

    Here even less. Never “heard” the wind, whic h we can when really windy.

    We had a few rumbles of Thunder here, but missed out on the good stuff to the South.

    Just lovely May weather, lovely!

  3. Thanks TK !

    I know I totaled more than 4 inches for the nearby small airport but I forget the exact amount.

    The stream coming into town center is as high as I have seen it in a long time.

  4. This comment’s aim is at observation, not cause.

    Again, I did not see any flash flood advisories or warnings last night in SE Mass. And this morning, I can’t find posted on the main page rainfall amounts. This close to the end of the storm, the list may not be long, but I have found there usually is one by morning.

    Against there own exceptionally high standard, I feel in this event, I can see some impact on the NWS office on what they can produce compared to what I feel they have produced in the past. Still excellence, but a difference in extreme detail and timeliness.

      1. Yes. We correctly point out the models imperfections and inaccuracies, but in the short term, some of them are really good.

  7. 4.94 here for the event. The rain really added up from 4 PM through the evening into overnight. Heading to sleep last night the thunder was heard for sure.

  8. With such impressive totals across the region, imagine if this was SNOW. ❄️

    But why doesn’t the 10:1 rule apply here?

    1. We’d need to know all the variables to determine the ratio.

      Is the boundary layer 32 or 35?

      How much below 0C is it at 700, 850 and 925 mb ?

      I do agree the comparison was assuming a winter or early spring dynamic storm generating its own cold air from above, but the differences above in that scenario would affect the ratios. Also, is it a daytime or nighttime event?

    2. If it were cold enough for snow, there would not be as much moisture available. None-the-less, it still would have been
      a healthy snow event.

      2. The air at 32 degrees can only hold about half as much moisture as the air at 45-50 degrees. So right off the top you cut the precip totals in half. Then there are plenty of other variables to take into account, as Tom mentioned above.

  9. Thanks TK
    On our NBC station here in CT they showed a graphic yesterday saying only 2% percent of Nor’easter’s occur during the month of May.

  11. Thanks, TK.

    Presidential Range and other mountains, too, throughout Northern New England, got a healthy dose of snow and sleet. Snow isn’t done there, either. In fact, looking at the Mt. Washington Observatory forecast several additional inches each day are possible in the higher summits through Sunday. What’s remarkable is just how far down the mountain the “freezing line” went and will go this weekend.

    Ryan Knapp’s description:

    The freezing line dropped to 2000 feet overnight but is expected to slowly retreat upslope to 4000 feet during the day. This will cause the wintry mix to transition to rain for the lower mountain, while mid-mountain will see cold rain work in with the lingering wintry mix. Friday night, wrap-around moisture will provide continued snow showers that will pick up again on Saturday as a trailing upper-level low approaches from the west. The passing low will provide another round of a wintry mix. Overnight, the freezing line drops to 2500 feet and then rebounds to 4500 feet during the day on Saturday. Showers will wind down on Saturday night as the lows slowly shift northeast. Lingering showers on Saturday night will fall as snow as cold air aloft returns. The freezing line will drop to 2000 feet, but with snowfall waning, totals in the lower elevations will be less than the higher terrain. In addition to the snow, sleet, and freezing rain, rime and glaze ice will continue to coat surfaces for summits that remain in the clouds.

    Temperatures are expected to bounce around in the 20s over the forecast period. While these colder temperatures are unlikely to take a swing at Friday and Saturday’s daily record lows of 11°F and 6°F, they are still well below normal for this late in May.

  13. Thanks TK! We had 4 inches on the dot here in Padnaram Village. I was impressed at the length of the thunderstorms. We have had nearly 8 inches of rain in May in this area so I hope not to here the word drought for awhile.

  17. Thanks, TK!

    3.06″ here.

    Hope your cellar is dry and problem-free, North and others.

  19. WoW!!

    We’re all the way to 50 here as we approach the Noon Hour.
    a HEAT WAVE!!!!

    1. I’m guessing the cam rotates and if one can wait enough, you do get a view of some pine trees in the background and its obvious how hard its snowing.

    2. Wish my older brother were here to see this. But then perhaps he has the best view of all.

  21. NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Prediction

    Named Storms: 13-19
    Hurricanes: 6-10
    Major Hurricanes: 3-5

    They usually update this in August.

      3. I listened to the rationale behind their prediction. The rationale was somewhat weak. Stuff like warm ocean surface temperatures, ENSO-neutral, weak wind shear, and climatology… sort of. Didn’t get the feeling the prediction was all that well supported, but they are predicting “above normal.”

      4. I would tend to agree with this.

        The StormHQ annual start of hurricane season blog is nearly done, and will be posted at some point in the coming days.

  22. Thanks TK.

    1.9″ total here in Coventry for the event and 7.51″ now on the month of May.

    We just cracked 50F here as well after getting down to 40F last night. House temp reached a low of 60F and is now inching up 🙂
    Terrible day today for my son’s senior picnic but at least it isnt raining.

  23. Congrats Tom on the storm jackpot!

    7″+ in Marshfield and Kingston on the NWS link Longshot posted above!

  31. What’s the weather prognosis for the Red Sox game tonight? Is it going to be wet?

    1. While we’re not talking about last night’s rainfall rate, I suspect that it should be raining by 6:00PM at Fenway, and continue lightly through most of the evening, so the 2nd game today is “questionable” IMO.

      1. Is this rain the remains of the parent low that spawned
        yesterday’s storm?

  33. SClarke posted the Mt. Washington Observatory webcam earlier today. As he said, it looks like mid-winter. In fact, I’d go a bit further, at least compared to what it looked like this mid-winter. It looks more wintry than it did at any point this January. I look at that cam frequently. And though it got very cold in January, there were previous few snowy days this year in January.

    The snow continues to fall at the summit of Wildcat – 4,000 feet. There’s plenty of snow up there right now.

    Wildcat is a tough mountain to climb, by the way. Don’t be deceived by its height of just 4,000 feet. So many places where you have to grab a hold of tree roots and rocks and kind of crawl up narrow, steep parts of the trail. I’ve done it quite a number of times.

    1. once had an easy climb of Wildcat….
      I simply rode the chairlift to the top. 🙂
      And skiied down….

  34. Actually, today was a pretty nice day. Felt quite mild compared to yesterday. I had to make a run to a couple of stores and
    did NOT requite a jacket or sweatshirt. Perfectly comfortable
    in a long sleeve jersey. 🙂

    Current temperature here is 58, but feels milder than that, at least to me.

    1. Today felt like San Francisco on a cloudy day in July. SF is not a warm place, as you know. It’s also not a cold place. But some of its cooler weather often happens in mid-summer.

      1. Never been there, but do know of what you speak. 🙂
        closest I have been is Las Vegas. 🙂

      2. I remember taking a sweater in mid summer each time we visited. It is a beautiful city.

      3. I was there for the MLB All-Star Game in 2007. Quite the experience leaving Sonoma where it was 93 and sunny in the afternoon, then taking the ferry to AT&T Park, where it dropped into the upper 50s with drizzle early in the game.

  35. Sox up against Orioles, 11-3. 8th inning of game 1.

    Orioles really playing bad ball so far this year.

    1. I believe SAK is up high on the 3rd base side. I watched a game from that area a handful of years ago. Been a while since I’ve been to a game. Eventually I’ll get back to one.

      1. Yup, I need to go. I usually go in late June and early September.

        Sox up 17-3!!!

            1. Now we’ll see if upcoming rainfall interferes with the night game.

      2. Yes, I was in the State Street Pavillion – front row down the 3B line. Almost had a foul ball in the 9th inning.

    2. I just wanted to post what you said in your last sentence. If we think we have it bad with our Sox, well, we’re spoiled. The Orioles were the up-and-coming team, even made it to the playoffs a couple of years in a row. But now they look downright dreadful, the way they did throughout long stretches since 2000.

  36. I love Fenway Park. I’ve probably sat in every section. I went to so many games in the 70s. Stuffed a couple of dollars in my tube socks and off I want by T to the old ballyard: General admission or bleachers. If the former, I’d then move around the stadium to check out different vantage points. I’d go with friends, but also on my own. There was no other place I wanted to be. I even skipped school to go to weekday day games – I hated school – and got into a lot of trouble with my parents.

    1. I also hated school.

      We were blessed. Ted left us his tickets. When he managed the senators/rangers we had his box seats by visitor dugout.

  39. Heading toward the start of tropical season in the Atlantic, we currently see the SST’s significantly colder than last year at the same time – running below the long term average pretty much across the entire MDR. I’ll watch the trend here, but I don’t expect any reversal of the negative departures any time soon.

    Last year we had much warmer water there to start the season, but other factors that slowed the start of the season, which ended up more active than the long term average (while the entire northern hemisphere was quieter than average).

    1. Actually, the start of the season was extremely active, it was the mid-point, usually the most active part of the season, that was extraordinarily quiet.

      We had 3 storms in June, including the earliest Category 5 on record, 2 more in August, then absolutely nothing between when Ernesto dissipated on August 20 and Francine developed on September 9,

      1. That’s right. Had it mixed up with a previous one.

        Long freaking week haha….

    2. This is the part I do not get. NOAA has pointed out warm surface level ocean temps. (And yes I understand this is only 1 factor.) At the same time, they are not exactly saying warmer than past years or abnormally warm.

      It’s warm every year but how do they decide what level of warmth actually makes a difference.

      1. They don’t really pick a level.

        The SST’s in the tropics are warm by default, but there are still long term averages, and lately the MDR is cool.

        Even a negative anomaly can be warm enough to initiate or maintain a tropical cyclone, but regardless of departure, it’s still only one factor.

        You could have temperatures running a little below normal during the heart of the season and develop a monster hurricane if all of the other conditions were favorable.

        You could have a sea surface temperature, running way above the long-term average and get nothing to develop if you have strong wind, shear or too much dry air, etc.

        1. Agree. But I must admit a bias … wind shear. After something forms, I always believe that wind shear becomes a big determinant. Not the only determinant but big somehow. Just my bias.

          Rant: I cannot stand those references to “a developing pre-sub-tropical wave.” What do those words even mean?

          1. I can honestly say I have never heard someone use that phrase. Ever. Where are you seeing references to it?

            1. That’s one I have not heard or seen either.

              Though it could be a new social media creation. 😉

  40. Thanks goodness for timing. Camping in Myles Standish, like we have on Memorial Day weekend for I think 25 years now. A gentle light rain falling, but very manageable.

    Most Memorial Day weekends are on the chillier side based on our experiences without looking at data. But, it’s great to be out here, we have a fire cranking and I can even sense a little light left on a cloudy night past 8:30pm. I hope with good fortune, we are able to do this for years and years to come.

  41. According to ch5 pembroke received over 6 inches , I Believe it as it was insane

  43. Working on the update .. just wanted to mention I have a rainbow visible to the west (quasi-rare morning rainbow) that has been there for what is approaching 1 hour. As the sun rises, the rainbow gets shorter and shorter … I wish I had time-lapsed this. 🙂

      1. It distracted me all around Woburn to take pics of city landmarks with a rainbow in it. 😉 Now I’m back. The rainbow existed for nearly 75 min.

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