Wednesday May 28 2025 Forecast (7:04AM)

48 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

Dry air aloft thinned out a veil of high clouds overnight that had spread into the area late yesterday, but while offshore high pressure keeps us dry today, upper level moisture will increase again and a sunny start will lead to a cloudy finish to the day. Tonight into Thursday, a warm front moves into and partially across the region, slowed by a developing wave of low pressure on it. That results in a period of showery weather, and a slow diminishing of them on Thursday as the low saunters away and low level moisture hangs on. Finally a stronger low, albeit further away, moving through the Great Lakes will put us into a warmer southwesterly flow for Friday – a day that looks largely rain-free except for the slight chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm as a moisture-starved cold front approaches. This front won’t stay moisture-starved for too long though. As it settles through the region Friday night and hangs around for a little while, a wave of low pressure forms and moves up along it Friday night into Saturday with more widespread rainfall. This system should be moving along enough that we get some improvement for a while for part of Saturday, but another disturbance can cause another round of showers later on, probably at night (timing / coverage to be fine-tuned). Finally, we clear out behind all of that on Sunday to start June with a nicer day.

TODAY: Sunny start / mainly cloudy finish. Highs 65-72 coast, 73-80 inland. Wind SW to SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers arrive and continue. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Showers diminish, slowly. Drizzle and patchy fog. Highs 62-69. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH early, becoming variable to S later.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 73-80, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain late evening / overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain early, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs 61-68. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers then overnight clearing. Lows 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 2-6)

A stretch of fair weather next week. Coolest early in the week, then a warm-up, but end-of-week may see a back-door cold front (maybe accompanied by a few showers) and a cool-down with the arrival of a maritime air mass.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 7-11)

Maritime air may dominate the June 7-8 weekend but optimistic that it’s controlled by high pressure with fair weather. A transition out of that and a hint at some weak blocking may mean some unsettled weather thereafter, but it’s far in the future and no clear, strong signals to what happens yet.

48 thoughts on “Wednesday May 28 2025 Forecast (7:04AM)”

  4. I like the signals for next Wednesday !

    Time to make up for the wet, then cloudy, really cool weather of last Thursday thru Sunday.

    Yes, the last 2 days have been great, but mathematically, 88F makes up for 52F. 🙂 That gets to a mean of 70F which is about right for late May. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I do.

      For a long about 18 months, I participated in a “contest” on a woodworking site that I use. We would post our results and then they were tallied in a monthly spreadsheet. We counted a total miss as 7.

      Finally, I was tired of trying so hard and stopped competing. Now I have fun using crazy first guesses – sometimes with surprising results.

      For example, I learned yesterday that the choice of words for guessing is very generous. Try using your favorite four-letter vulgarity, add an ‘s’ to the end, it’ll probably be accepted as a guess.

      🙂

      2. Oh my. I had not thought of that. I’ll try.

        I have used same two words since the start. Nyt is getting good at providing few in first two guesses tho

  10. Good news JpDave, the 12z GFS tempered next week’s warmup.

    Well, it is the GFS, so that could mean 100F is in play. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  11. At 76F so I am one degree over where I thought I would be. probably hit 77F before day is out.

  12. My annual starts of hurricane season blog is now up, and includes some updated stats that show how extremely overdue we are for a direct hit up here:

    https://stormhq.blog/2025/05/28/hurricane-season-starts-sunday/

    One thing to note that was not mentioned in the blog. We’re at 34 years since Bob, and the longest we’ve gone without a landfall is 38 years (1896 to 1934), so this is our 2nd longest drought on record. In the middle of that “drought”, we had a minimal hurricane pass extremely close to Nantucket in 1924. It produced hurricane conditions on Nantucket and parts of Cape Cod. It is listed as a storm that “hit” New England, but did NOT make landfall. I asked a friend that I consider the “expert” on hurricanes in the Northeast, and he agreed with me. Since my stats specifically say landfall, and that storm did not make landfall, the 38 years is in fact the longest we’ve gone without landfall.

  16. Made it to 78

    Today and yesterday were 2 of the nicest May days one could ever expect! nearly perfect!!!!!

  17. Thanks, TK.

    The Red Sox are dismal and unraveling. Another 1-run loss in brutal fashion.

    They’re worse than last year’s squad.

    They could very well vie for a possible last place finish again (Orioles have an overall better roster; I think they can overtake the Sox to get out of the cellar).

    The Sox may be lucky to win 70 games (and lose 92) when all is said and done, in my opinion. They just have very limited talent (all facets of the game except speed). And why on earth did they sign players like Bello, Campbell, and Rafaela to long-term deals. They’ve invested $60 million in a kid, Campbell, who is NOT a major leaguer. He might never become a full-fledged major leaguer. I’m certainly not convinced. Rafaela is a major league utility man at best, and I believe he’s also got a $60 million contract. Bello is a mediocre major league pitcher. He’s never going to be good.

    1. What they do have are pieces that other teams might want before the trading deadline, like Chapman. Sell. Rebuild. DFA deadwood like Story. Cora’s probably not a good fit, either. I think Varitek could work out with a rebuilding team. I’m fine with spending a few years in the wilderness as the team rebuilds. I’m not fine with a chronically lifeless, mediocre team that’s composed of an ill-fitting roster that has no future as a competitive club.

      1. The season is young but they do have problems for sure. They have slipped from 2nd to 4th in the East. Their longest homestand is behind them. Players are not living up to their supposed capabilities. There has been dissension. I feel they should be above 500, not below.

        The B’s are down to 2-3 possibles for a new coach.

        The Pats might surprise many this year.

        Big questions about the Celtics. Who is staying and who is not.

        1. I’d like to be optimistic, but I don’t see evidence that suggests a turnaround for the Red Sox. In baseball especially it comes down to talent level over a 162-game marathon. This team lacks talent, particularly regarding pitching, but also some gaping holes in the lineup and on defense.

          Longshot, you make some astute observations.

          We’ve been spoiled in Boston since the Patriots’ Superbowl victory in 2002. We’ve not really had any year since that time in which none of the 4 major sports teams were competitive. I’m afraid we may be in that period now. I have little faith in the Patriots. Perhaps 7 wins, but that might be a stretch. Talent is deficient practically everywhere you look on the team, despite some improvements. Celtics have a bad injury to deal with and some roster decisions and an age issue with certain players. Probably looking at a middling team next year. Bruins are in rebuild mode, which I don’t mind. I actually think it’s healthy to do now and then. Red Sox are kind of in the worst spot of the 4: Mediocrity with little upside (well, a few exceptions here and there, like Crochet). I am a believer in a clean-out rebuild, including getting rid of young pieces who aren’t going to be core parts of a competitive team, like Rafaela and Hamilton, and replacing the entire coaching staff. It’s not working and hasn’t for several years. I like Cora as a person. But when you see a team that chronically does so poorly in fundamentals like baserunning and defense it’s telling you something about preparation.

    2. Right around or just over .500 at the final game of the season. 🙂

  18. The pessimism about the weekend is rampant, but it may actually not be that bad. More to come…

    Hint: Timing is everything.

  20. Active Saharan dust season underway. Also, cool temps in the MDR waters. These are negative factors for early tropical development.

    1. As mentioned in the blog, development in June is usually in the western Caribbean or the Gulf. Models hinting at something in that area around 10-15 days from more. With each passing run more and more ensemble members are picking up on it.

      Meanwhile, TD1E has formed south of Mexico. Likely to become Alvin in the next 24 hours, may not reach hurricane strength, and should dissipate before it could make landfall in western Mexico.

      1. Correct. MDR usually not a big deal early on.

        It’s kind of sad that the alphabet and current naming system can’t allow Alvin, Simon, and Theodore to be on the same list…

  21. A .500 record doesn’t make the postseason so I guess it’s now time to move on to the Patriots.
    🙂

    1. While not common, teams with .500 (or in a few cases lower) records can make the post season.

  22. At least the Red Sox won’t lose another 1-run game today. They’ll probably find a way though. 😉

  23. There’s a few hrs pre-sunrise through after sunrise Saturday morning that could be quite interesting. Torrential rains, tshowers ??

    Euro so consistent, I’m about ready to stop even looking at the GFS.

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