Saturday May 17 2025 Forecast (8:48AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)

In a “wet” pattern dominated by low pressure, you have your nice times. Yesterday afternoon, for example, was one of those times. While the higher humidity you could feel in the air may have been a little uncomfortable for some, you can’t deny the feel of early summer was with us – sun and clouds, and no showers and thunderstorms to track (they stayed well west and north). Now we reach the weekend and a weather transition will take place as low pressure drifts eastward through the Northeast and southeastern Canada. A large surface low pressure circulation will pass to our north today and tonight, and then shift a bit east southeastward into the Gulf of Maine and the southern portion of Atlantic Canada through Sunday into Monday as well. During this time, upper level low pressure also drifts into and then across the region from west to east – in no really hurry during the trip. The weather outlook in general hasn’t changed since my last update. The aim of this update is to pinpoint the weekend shower threats in more detail. The windows-of-opportunity are somewhat limited, so we’re going to salvage the majority of hours at any given location rain-free versus wet on both days. Today’s best shower threat comes in a west-to-east sweep from late morning to mid afternoon, but any given location would rain for a relatively short period of time. Additionally, another passing shower or thunderstorm can take place from around sunset to late evening, again west to east, and again being of short duration where they would occur. The difference between today and Sunday will be the “feel” of the air. Today’s higher dew points in the warm sector will give the muggy feel, while tomorrow, cooler air and much lower dew points, along with a breeze, will add a bit of chill to the air. As we find ourselves in the northwesterly flow Sunday on the back side of low pressure, any sun that we see will simply help to ignite more clouds, and some of these clouds will produce showers. Our best shot at showers Sunday comes during the second half of the afternoon into the evening. Getting to Monday, the upper low’s impacts are still apparent, with more clouds wheeling around its back side, and still the threat of a few passing showers during the day, although it looks like the greatest threat comes early in the day – will refine that timing. High pressure provides fair weather Tuesday. Enjoy it, because another storm system is on the way, and the rain threat returns during Wednesday. I’ll get more into that threat on tomorrow’s update.

TODAY: Cloudy through midday with a passing shower possible west to east. Clouds break for sun after with a shower or thunderstorm possible mainly west of I-95 toward evening. Highs 62-69 South Coast, 69-76 elsewhere. Wind S up to 10 MPH becoming variable then SW 5-15 MPH late-day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible until late evening. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 55-62. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers, mainly late afternoon to early evening. Highs 62-69. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind W under 10 MPH becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain arriving southwest to northeast. Highs 52-59. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 22-26)

Eyeing a coastal storm with wind/rain into May 22 along with well below normal temperatures. Improvement May 23. Memorial Day Weekend (May 24-26) early outlook: Upper level low pressure can produce diurnal scattered showers Saturday and Sunday before high pressure brings fair weather Monday. Obviously lower confidence that far in advance, but that’s an early call and will be updated and detailed as we get closer to it.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 27-31)

Large scale pattern for the last 5 days of May starts out on the cool side followed by some moderation. We may have to watch yet another storm system just to the south early in the period, but unclear on how big a threat that would be for additional rainfall. Stay tuned…

82 thoughts on “Saturday May 17 2025 Forecast (8:48AM)”

    1. Thank you JimmyJames. Glad to see tornado threat is gone for this area anyway. Hope it diminishes for all areas

      I’m not in any way comparing this to June 1, 2011. I have forgotten the tornado percentage threat for that day. I seem to think you may remember

  6. Most media has proclaimed Sunday the pick of the weekend.

    I wholeheartedly disagree.

    By the standards most people use, TODAY is the pick.

    1. That’s the approach. Alarm everybody – trigger fear, and then have the people miss the actual details. I am very unhappy with media, very very unhappy. These directors don’t get it at all. Gotta be the most frustrating time to be a TV met.

      1. Agree, Agree, Agree!!!!

        They can’t be doing that. It is so WRONG!!!!

        Sure, there may be a severe storm in VT and a “possible” isolated tornado, but NO WHERE NEAR the ch 10 viewing area.

        This practice has to STOP!!!!!

        1. I have a feeling the practice is going nowhere … media’s drive to be “first” and “best” has completely overshadowed the reason it was created to begin with, to inform. Yes it’s great to want to be timely, but be timely, not dramatic, not fear-invoking. Be truthful. People will trust you more, learn more, and have less crap to weed through before they actually get what they need.

          1. Again, agree totally. So sad.

            Btw, just go another alert:
            FIRST ALERT:
            Strong storms could produce tornadoes, damaging winds

    2. It may surprise everyone to know that I am a huge fan of nbc 10s chief met. I did set up alerts from its app. For about three days. I was getting alerts that made no sense to me. My heart aches for our Mets. Maybe if we all write to corporate, it’ll sink in.

  10. I agree, I would add it’s regional and by threat, which I know you all know too.

    At least 16 people are dead from tornadoes yesterday.

    But yes, in the northeast, you can’t treat today’s scenario with actions that are in line with a high threat and a 30% tornado contour over all of New England.

    1. As our tech advances to the point of having better information going to the correct people nearly immediately, our practice evolves away from all of it.

  12. A couple pieces of medium range guidance are trending a little further south with the midweek storm threat – nearly to the point of a graze or a miss. More reliable guidance hasn’t done that yet.

    1. I have a follow-up appointment with my knee surgeon on Thursday. Would like as “dry” a day as possible. I certainly like that trend.

      1. I’d feel better about it if it was showing up in more reliable guidance. Long way to go though.

  14. In 90+ minutes the weather is going to change and remind many of yesterday.

    1. Shhhhh

      I saw that a warm front was draped over our area. I presume MORE HUMID and WARMER. BOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
      NOT A FAN!

  17. Hi All!
    I know…I’ve been AWOL for quite some time. We moved (a mile away, but still the same logistics) to a place with just one floor.
    My wife can’t do the stairs in the townhouse.
    At the same time my stepdaughter et al moved to Bulverde, Texas. We had to fly to Mississippi to drive one of their cars to Texas. Belverde is about 30 miles north of San Antonio.
    Now for the weather component of this post.
    I smiled the last couple of days reading TK’s dailies with all the moving parts. Here…different story. Over 100 degrees last 3 days. Cold front passage last night drops today’s highs to about 96 and tomorrow, 93. No rain….no coastal storms….just sun and heat.
    Tomorrow, we drive to south of Houston (Missouri City) for a week with my daughter, et al. She promised cooler (90 or less).
    Maybe even a shower or 2.
    Not sure what my vote is….hot and boring or cool, somewhat raining and definitely not boring.
    Feel free to vote.
    Hope all is well with everyone.
    Regards, Weatherbee2

    2. Wonderful to see you WBee. I wish you many happy years in your new home. As well as cooler days.

    1. Maybe a few right around 3:30PM, unless it misses you to the north, or dissipates………

      1. MISSED me! NOT A drop here today, so far anyway and frankly, I don’t think I see a drop either. 🙂

        1. There are 2 more triggers…

          1) Pre-frontal trough. That gives you the shot of a shower early this evening.

          2) Cold front. That gives you the shot of a shower or t-storm mid to late evening.

          Your overall chance of seeing anything from either of those where you are is under 50%. Today is a good example of why, whenever possible, things should not be cancelled or postponed due to weather app icons.

          1. 🙂 🙂 Ok, we’ll see. 🙂 🙂
            Doesn’t matter one way or the other to me at least not today.

  19. Thanks TK. Sunny and pushing 80 here in West Hartford. Quite the change from this morning at my daughter’s softball game where it was cloudy chilly and damp and I needed a jacket. Had a rain shower around lunchtime right before the skies parted.

  20. As of May 16 2025, there have been zero tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere. This has happened only five times previously since 1950 for six times total. We will see how 2025 turns out.

    The years…
    1973
    1983
    1984
    1998
    2024
    2025

    All but one of the previous 5 years ended up below normal in the hemisphere for the season.

  21. The most reliable medium range model (at this time), the ECMWF, has not changed its tune about the storm threat. No “southward trend” there at this point.

    If this system comes to be, we may very well have daytime temps in the 40s on Thursday.

    1. So I assume Thursday will be quite wet? Oh well. I have to keep my appointment regardless.

      Of course if this was winter, the southward trend would indeed be reality by now. 😉

  23. Thanks, TK.
    Some snow possible this week in the Presidential Range, White Mountains of NH.

    1. There was a time skiing Tuckerman went into June. I checked the webcam but fog covered everything so not sure if the snow cover

  24. JP Dave, you’ll hate this one too…

    Channel 5 just posted an online update 2 hours ago (2:30PM) that I guarantee you was not written by anyone in the weather office.

    “StormTeam 5 is tracking a powerful storm system, which could bring downpours, gusty winds, lightning and hail to parts of Mass. Saturday afternoon.”

    Ok, so technically, this is sort of correct. But the “storm system” is not really all that powerful. It’s a typical springtime low pressure area. So that part is highly exaggerated. The rest of the headline is not wrong in its defined meaning, there can be storms that deliver heavy rain, gusty wind, lightning, and even small hail, but you can see the wording is such to make it sound like it’s a really big deal for the entire area. It’s not.

  25. To TK,

    I got about 12 drops at 3:30. I think it has rained a trace or more 7 Saturdays in a row. Or more?

    1. For Boston it’s at least a brief period of rain 8 out of 10 I think.

  26. Another 100% perfect call by Tk this morning letting me know to move forward with a big pembroke job this morning . We hit it hard from 7am – 10am . Tk is such an asset to my landscaping operation. Big thank you Tk !!!!

    1. I hope TK is on your board of directors. His vote should count twice. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. He probably thinks I’m a huge pain in the ass Tom . This is the truth I tell my customers I have a meteorologist on my team . Last week on Friday the customer said it’s going to rain . I said my meteorologist said I can get it in . When I showed up in the morning , she said boy your guy is good !!

    1. They got the support there – warm surface, unstable with colder air aloft, lift from trough & mountains. Rough day in the Green Mountain State.

  29. Cell out by Pittsfield is Severe warned and it appears to be moving straight Eastward. I don’t imagine it would survive
    to withing anywhere near the coast. Will watch in case.

    1. It’s warned now and just over Goshen. We have some whw family up that way that it might reach

      1. It’s holding together so far. Doesn’t seem to be moving too quickly.

        SClarke. May have sights on your area

  31. Sitting out in the deck and very comfortable out here but hearing thunder now off to the NW as the cold front approaches.

    2. Only place I’m seeing lightning is Manchester nh. They have quite a show going on up there.

    3. Got very windy and cooler so we came inside. Still waiting for the first drops though.

  34. The Red Sox actually “won” a one run game for a change. I believe most of their losses so far this season have been of that variety.

    1. The Red Sox are 5-12 in 1-run games. However, the MFY are 5-10 in 1-run games and it hasn’t impacted them as much.

      1. It was a much-needed lift for the team. Comeback victories like this can energize a club.

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