Friday May 16 2025 Forecast (7:00AM)

30 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 16-20)

Weakening low pressure to our southwest drifts northward today into Saturday, merging with a more organized by maturing low pressure area moving eastward through the Great Lakes. The result here is a general southeast to south wind and humid conditions. Shower activity will be mostly nil during the day today as we have a lack of mid and high level moisture, and the lower clouds are thinning and breaking. In fact many areas away from the coast break out into a fair amount of sun at times. We’ll see a spring-typical temperature contrast from coast to inland too. Clouds become more dominant tonight and Saturday – though some breaks of sun are still possible Saturday. As the Great Lakes low, which will now have overtaken the weakening one, passes by to our north, a couple troughs and a cold front bring shower and thunderstorm opportunities to our region. The chance will be limited in the morning, better in the afternoon, and best in the evening. The low center, in response to the upper pattern, will then drift more to the east southeast across Maine and into the Atlantic to our northeast during Sunday, settling slowly and steadily to the east of our region by Monday, and finally away by Tuesday, when high pressure builds in. Sunday and early next week are less humid, cooler, and I’d love to say dry, but I cannot rule out additional scattered showers Sunday and isolated showers Monday as we’re still under the upper low’s influence.

TODAY: Areas of fog early. Clouds break for sun at times. Remote chance of a brief shower. Highs range from near 60 Cape Cod to near 80 interior valleys. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds dominate. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower. Lows 56-63. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring a couple hours between late morning and mid afternoon west to east. Highs 62-69 South Coast, 69-76 elsewhere. Wind S up to 10 MPH becoming variable then SW late-day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Additional showers / thunderstorms likely. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Highs 62-69. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 21-25)

Hybrid blocking / progressive pattern. Watching the evolution of low pressure with a decent chance to bring wet weather in the May 21-23 time frame, but the exact details are currently uncertain. Improvement follows but upper level low pressure may keep it cool with at least some shower threat into the Memorial Day Weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 26-30)

Expected large scale pattern features a trough of low pressure in the eastern US with a couple wet weather chances and overall temperatures running below normal, but the pattern may relax toward the end of the period with a milder westerly flow.

30 thoughts on “Friday May 16 2025 Forecast (7:00AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Is it time to start including expected dew points in your forecasts? Loved seeing those in the warmer months. Thanks.

      1. Discussion from Norton NWS

        the better potential for severe weather mainly for interior
        Southern New England near/west of Worcester. With this second
        round, low and midlevel flow increases to the point where
        forecast hodographs become pretty curved in a low-LCL setting,
        As indicated in the machine-learning progs, potential for
        locally strong winds and/or a tornado could develop in western
        MA/CT if storms can root themselves at the surface. That leads
        to the next source of uncertainty, in that we may still be
        dealing with quite a bit of stratus and low clouds from the
        overnight lingering even into the afternoon. The longer those
        low clouds stick around, the less likely we`ll destabilize
        enough.

  9. If I recall correctly after peaking at them earlier, the short range models (12z HRRR and 3Km NAM) didnt simulate much rain or convection tomorrow. Not that they are correct.

  10. How remote is the shower chance this afternoon/evening? Do I need to schlep the raincoats to Fenway?

  14. Thanks, TK.

    Is that “Great Lakes low” what was responsible for the tornado warning in western Michigan last night?

    1. I am happy right here in the northeast. Yes we have faults and he’s we have tornadoes, but not yet on the level of other areas.

  18. Boil Water Order (before drinking / general use is OK)..

    Abington
    Rockland
    Pembroke
    Whitman
    Hanson
    Hingham

    …until further notice.

    E. coli & total coliform bacteria levels exceed the accepted limit for safety.

  19. I am so done with Mazzula and his inability to adjust throughout the game. Just keep throwing 3’s up and nothing.

    And don’t get me going with the refs, just awful

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