Thursday May 15 2025 Forecast (7:04AM)

58 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19)

Slow pattern shift continues … broadening / weakening low pressure at upper levels and resultant surface low drifts northeastward and the southeasterly air flow we’re in now becomes more southerly Friday and Saturday. Another low pressure area moves eastward through the Great Lakes. This results in a modest warm-up and more humid spell of weather. We’ll have bouts of showers all 3 days, the most concentrated showers with embedded thunder coming through from south to north this morning, then a more scattered to isolated shower pattern much of the time – with lots of rain-free hours – until one more disturbance / cold front comes through from the west around the middle of the day Saturday with another batch of showers and storms. Once we get by that, low pressure shifts to our east but upper level low pressure still has to cross the region on Sunday. That day will be drier, a little cooler, but can still have a few passing showers around. Even on Monday, a fair, cool, dry day, we’ll see some clouds in the sky as a result of lingering cold air aloft with the upper level low pressure area just to our east.

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms into mid morning then scattered to isolated showers thereafter. Any showers can contain downpours with some localized flooding issues. Patchy fog early. Highs 59-66 coast, 66-73 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 62-69 South Coast, 69-76 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog, Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring a couple hours between late morning and mid afternoon west to east. Highs 62-69 South Coast, 69-76 elsewhere. Wind S up to 10 MPH becoming variable then SW late-day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 62-69. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 20-24)

Hybid blocking / progressive pattern. The first couple days bring us fair weather with high pressure in control. This is followed by a period of unsettled weather with low pressure impacting the region – details TBD. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 25-29)

Expected large scale pattern features a trough of low pressure in the eastern US with a couple wet weather chances and overall temperatures running below normal.

58 thoughts on “Thursday May 15 2025 Forecast (7:04AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    On the eastern edge of the rain blob, still got a brief but heavy shower.

  4. A lot more rain than I anticipated. That blob wasn’t moving much. Up to .51 QPF

  9. Thanks, TK!

    64 degrees with 0.55″ of rain. Had a rumble or two of thunder around 7:45 here in Taunton. There seems to be a sold cell heading through Providence to our west.

    I am on the DL for a while. I had successful, scheduled, day-surgery yesterday at Mass Eye and Ear to remove one of my four parathyroid glands (not my thyroid.) The “bad boy” was abnormal and producing too much hormone which had been causing me to have too much calcium in blood. That had been causing me great fatigue, kidney stones, bone and body aches, etc. for the past two years or so.

    As soon as the surgeon removed the abnormal PT gland, my hormone level dropped from 239 to 17! I feel sore from the procedure, but I feel like a new person this morning! The fatigue and aches have pretty much gone away!

    I am out of school till the Tuesday after Memorial Day!

    We are so blessed to have hospitals like MEEI in our area! 🙂

    1. Happy all went well. You have officially joined the
      “IT SUCKS TO GET OLD” club. Welcome!!

      Best of luck.

    2. I’m glad the procedure went well Captain and that some of the previous symptoms are already subsiding.

      Get some rest and continue to feel better !!

    4. Very happy all went well and you are already seeing results. So very sorry that you have struggled. Prayers for a continued, very positive recovery. ❤️

  11. Not a big basketball fan, but I want to acknowledge the depth on the Celtics roster. Tatum’s injury is a huge loss. But from what I can see this team has a lot more than just Tatum. We’ll see how the series goes. The Knicks still have the upper hand. But I wouldn’t count out the Celtics.

    The Sox, on the other hand, look utterly lost in any close game. That, my friends, is never a good sign for any team. We’re early in the season. But the returns thus far suggest another rather mediocre team. Pinning the blame on any one element – front office, manager, players – is a mistake. BUT it’s a generally poorly constructed pitching roster with visible holes in the starting staff (makes one wonder why every year the Sox unload good starting pitchers who wind up doing quite elsewhere) and, frankly, a miserable bullpen with the exception of Chapman. I’d argue that putting together a reasonable or good bullpen is a relatively easy task and it’s one this front office has neglected for many years.

    2. The Porzingis viral illness, by the way, is a mystery. He’s had it since February. I worry about what’s happened to him. He says it has zapped his energy at times and he has trouble breathing.

      1. Doesn’t bode well for a basketball player.

        Wonder if he might have fibromyalgia? of course, that
        is pure conjecture on my par.

    1. I expected more than that. Oh Well. Does NOT seem dry around my area, that’s for sure.

      1. Agreed! All the ponds and rivers in our area seem look higher than usual. The Nashua River was at flood warning earlier this week.

  13. SClarke, that was a terrific play and such an unusual one. It’s one of the reasons I love baseball. It seems like there are endless possibilities in the sport of things that can and will happen at some point.

  14. Captain get well soon
    As a Knicks fan I said yesterday talking to another Knicks fan don’t count the Celtics out. If the Knicks lose tomorrow night then I feel the Celtics will win game seven at home Monday night.

    1. I think the Knicks have a good chance at winning game 6.

      Losing your superstar shows up in the 4th qtr of a close game, on the road. If its real close, can JB or D White or PP hit big 4th qtr shots on the road.

      If the Celts somehow win game 6, they are not a guarantee to win gm 7 because they rely so much on the 3, and if they don’t shoot them well in potentially both games, it wouldn’t matter that they would be home.

  16. I think the Knicks have a good chance at winning game 6.

    Losing your superstar shows up in the 4th qtr of a close game, on the road. If its real close, can JB or D White or PP hit big 4th qtr shots on the road.

    If the Celts somehow win game 6, they are not a guarantee to win gm 7 because they rely so much on the 3, and if they don’t shoot them well in potentially both games, it wouldn’t matter that they would be home.

  17. I have not had much to cheer about with the Knicks this century until the last three years. They have not made a conference final since 2000.

  20. The airport is ridiculous!!!

    Only 60 there while it is 68 here and low 70’s a bit more inland.

    1. Or it’s just “typical” because they are on the water, and it’s spring. 🙂

      1. They go to EAST wind easier than any place on Earth. It’s uncanny! It just really gets to me at times. Glad I’m about 6 miles inland from them. humungous
        difference most of the time, unless there is a strong wind blowing in.

  23. I was just going to bring this up, but notice SAK has included the latest Drought Monitor map on his weekend update blog. Please see that – click the link he just posted above.

    You’ll remember I said it won’t be a “clean” map, but it will be much less coverage of moderate drought.

    “Abnormally dry” still covers a fair amount of the WHW forecast area, and that’s a result of a longer-term dry issue. A wet first half of May doesn’t just take all that away.

    “Moderate Drought” has shrunk, but still covers Nantucket, Cape Cod, and a strip from central Essex County to central Middlesex County. (Again, see the map in SAK’s link.)

  24. The Celtics need to hit their free throws. They have been missing way too many at the “charity stripe”. They might have pulled off game 4. Even last night’s game they missed a bunch.

    Still in a world of pain. Night sleep pretty much nonexistent.

  25. It is absolutely monsooning right now at 3:00 PM in Auburn, Ma. It was so bad I had to pull over and sit some of it out. Flooding was insane. Branches down from crazy wind and then dead calm. The weather is so much fun to watch. Came home to a flooded basement. I surrender!! Lololol

    1. The air is a bit tropical (relatively) and there was a little convergence zone to wring out the moisture right on that area. We had a couple patches of drizzle here this afternoon – ground is dry where I am. Close miss to the west at my location per radar.

  26. I wish today’s weather was what we would have on Memorial Day weekend.

    Some humidity, some storms, mild to warm away from Logan, this feels like the unofficial start to summer.

    1. Low pressure trough ends up 200 miles further west than currently depicted (ECMWF) and it’s exactly the type of weekend we’ll end up with.

  27. As the data updates come in today / this evening, a couple things to note…

    1) SAK first noted this on his update today, as it’s showing up more prominently on the short-range guidance, and that is the potential for a back-door cold front to slide down from the Gulf of Maine to impact Saturday’s temp forecast for a portion of the region.

    2) I may need to add isolated or scattered diurnal showers to Monday’s forecast based on a trend for the upper low to be a little stronger and a little slower to depart the region. Will re-review (haha) early tomorrow before my update. My fellow forecaster SAK also noted this with his mention of a possible shower Monday, but I had not included it in my morning update based on the guidance I had and my opinion that the upper low would be a bit more hasty in its departure.

    1. I know it’s not popular opinion, but personally I love the air today. 🙂

  29. The GFS is so, so bad…

    It is interested in measurable snow as close by as northern Worcester County on May 22. 😉

    When the data is lacking, the model biases are magnified.

  30. Well, no Stanley Cup for Ovi. The Capitals have been eliminated by the Hurricanes, who closed out the series (4 games to 1) with a 3-1 win in Washington a short bit ago.

    My short term hockey prediction for tonight, both road teams win. One down, one to go. The Stars are in Winnipeg and can end the Jets season (and I think they will).

    In my pre-playoff prediction, I had the Caps & Jets making the finals. Haha!

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