Wednesday May 14 2025 Forecast (7:11AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (MAY 14-18)

The process of migrating / breaking down of a Rex Block continues, with slow-motion weather changes the result. Low pressure to our southwest very slowly weakens, broadens, and drifts northeastward over the next several days. Yesterday, high clouds in the sky were battled by drier air and you saw that they had trouble thickening up. Mid level clouds were held off mostly to our southwest. By late-day, if you were sky watching you noticed an increase in clouds, but this morning you notice that hasn’t changed too much – with just some thicker high to mid level cloud cover across our southern areas while to the north the clouds are thin enough to allow some sun. This was my expectation when making yesterday’s forecast, leading to the wording that I used for today (Wednesday) of “limited sunshine / lots of clouds” while other forecasts you may have seen just called for “cloudy”. The latter is now becoming true for southern areas and eventually this will become the case for the region in general as the day goes on, but it’s still a slow process, with intervals of filtered sun still possible into midday at least across areas north of I-90. This may seem like a lot of explanation for one deck of clouds, but my aim is to give people an understanding of how this particular pattern is working on making our changes such a slow process. Anyway, once we get the clouds in, the atmosphere will moisten up enough to allow the chance of showers to increase as we get to this evening and tonight, and in pulses Thursday into Friday as we see our wind flow go from easterly to southerly. The surface humidity will be increasing, and you’ll feel that in the air quite noticeably by Friday, as well as Saturday. Those two days are when we’ll have an air flow out of the south. Saturday also continues the shower chance – although not a “washed-out” day, as there may only be a few hours total where any one area is impacted by rainfall. We do have to get a disturbance through here from west to east at some point Saturday when we can have a heaver bout of shower and thunderstorm activity. I’m still working on tweaking the expecting timing of that and won’t really be certain of it until Friday, but yesterday’s leaning was late-day / evening and today’s is just a little bit earlier (Saturday midday / afternoon). Stay tuned for more about that. Sunday, we’re into a drier western air flow, but upper level low pressure crossing the region can still allow a few showers to pop up with the aid of the sun’s heating, so I can’t leave that as a completely rain-free forecast either at this point.

TODAY: Filtered / limited sun favoring northern MA / southern NH morning, otherwise becoming mostly cloudy. A shower possible South Coast late-day. Highs 60-67 coast, 67-74 inland. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Shower chance increases. Lows 52-59. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers most likely through mid morning, then a lower shower chance thereafter. Highs 59-66 coast, 66-73 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 62-69 South Coast, 69-76 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog, Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, favoring midday & part of afternoon. Highs 62-69 South Coast, 69-76 elsewhere. Wind S up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 52-59. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 62-69. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 19-23)

This is the period of time where we’ll be in the much-mentioned hybrid block / progressive pattern. The upper pattern will attempt an omega (trough west central North America / ridge Great Lakes and eastern Canada / trough east of New England), with us on the fair weather eastern side of high pressure early next week – dry and seasonable / slightly cool weather. After this we see a progression of features as the pattern begins a transition to ridge western US / trough eastern US. This may cause some unsettled weather in our region by the middle to latter portion of next week, but I’m uncertain of details this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 24-28)

Strongest indications are for a trough of low pressure dominating the eastern US, including New England, including the WHW forecast area. This pattern would feature a couple opportunities for wet weather, but not an excessively wet pattern. Temperatures near to below normal. May 24-26 is the Memorial Day Weekend, where much scrutinizing of the weather expectations is done. I’ll be focusing on this period in detail as it nears.

40 thoughts on “Wednesday May 14 2025 Forecast (7:11AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I agree that long range doesn’t look excessively wet, but as you have described it well, with a trof in eastern North America, it looks below average temp wise and maybe well below.

    Insert JpDave frustation typing here šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚

  2. Thank you for the information. Looking forward to being outside today.

  9. Hey TK!!!

    I watch and hear a lot of media and yesterday yours was the only forecast giving us any sun of all I saw and heard, and you explained why in your discussion. All the others I saw just said cloudy, overcast, etc

    Nicely done my friend! This is why I read this blog every day.

    DOH!!

    1. Thanks Pizza! There were colleagues of mine who had this pretty well nailed šŸ™‚

  10. From this far out, I wouldn’t start hoping Memorial Day weekend is going to offer even 1 day of summer like weather, even though its nick-named, the unofficial start of summer.

    At least today’s 12z EURO long range offers a little hope after the long weekend, when the majority of us are back inside !!!!!!!!!

    1. Sometimes when you have a ridge West / trough East pattern, enough cut-off occurs that if the low is far enough west and kind of mature / weakening, you end up with a variably cloudy set-up with just occasional shower chances and long periods of rain-free weather. If you end up in a southerly flow with low pressure to your west or northwest, it can be quite mild to warm. I would not rule this set-up out completely for around that time.

      HINT: Don’t pay attention to the GFS beyond a couple days, even more than “usual”. It’s taken a nose-dive in performance and is essentially in last place now among all medium range models.

  11. Below normal temps shown once again by the CPC for the 6-10 8-14 day outlooks. It looks like we might have to wait until June for that first 90 degree day.

    1. May is going to turn out just about completely opposite to their original 30-day outlook for it.

      Boston’s average first 90 degree day is June 1. Of course that’s a long term average. It does not mean that June 1 it hits 90 more often than not. In fact, it’s the opposite. šŸ˜‰

      Boston’s earliest recorded 90 degree day is April 7 2010.

      When you go south to a place like Washington DC, their average first date of 90 degrees is about May 15. Their earliest recorded 90 degree day was March 22 1907.

      Heading southwest to Pittsburgh PA, we find an average first date of June 15 for 90 degrees. Their earliest recorded 90 degree day was April 18 1896.

  13. FWIW: RRFS had the sky conditions today nailed from 48 hours out.

      1. Well, it’s a short range model, the HRRR’s replacement. So it’s only for a couple days ahead. But so far it looks pretty decent.

        1. I’ll take it. Do you know when it will formally replace HRRR? or will they keep both?

  14. Today’s one of those days when the forecast busts badly (away from the coast), and nobody complains. I certainly didn’t have this much sun in the forecast, and I definitely didn’t have temperatures this warm.

    1. haha
      you speak of
      inland I lknow. it is nice here but certainly not warm. 66 currently.

    2. The sun the 1st half of the day I was expecting. I figured by now we’d be overcast. Nope!

      I had 60-67 coast, 67-74 inland. They were a little low. Some 75+ inland areas! The spread is pretty dramatic from coast to inland. We’ve seen bigger ones though as you know!

      1. For the majority of my ride up to work the car thermometer was 80-83. Looking at the map, it seems as though everywhere outside of 128 and inside of 495 got to 75-82, thanks to the unexpected sunshine this afternoon.

        1. A very nice spring day! Like you said, this is the type of non-verifying forecast that people don’t mind!

  15. Im down in central Florida. Local TV exaggerating heat dome. It’s Florida it gets hot in May. Uper level high bridging across the state from the gulf and Atlantic Ocean. The cool will probably feel good when I go back up to Rhode Island next week.

    1. Media doing what media does. Hype. Exaggeration. You know. Ratings. Clicks. No records falling in Florida.

      Texas, on the other hand, has a small scale but scorching patter at the moment. That’s what happens in a blocking pattern when high pressure surface and aloft is stuck in one spot.

      1. Even Texas was exaggerated. Lots of cloud cover kept temperatures much cooler than expected across North Texas. Across central and southern Texas, it wasn’t nearly as hot as the models were predicting a few days ago. After days upon days of hearing how Austin was going to shatter monthly records with temperatures near 110 they briefly got to 100 for about 5 minutes this afternoon. Still hot enough for a daily record, but the monthly record of 104 from 1925 is still safe.

        1. Ah! I hadn’t even paid that much attention. I was still seeing headlines yesterday about unprecedented heat in Texas and ignoring them. Mainly because I was too busy, but also figured they were highly exaggerated. Guess I was right. šŸ™‚

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