DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)
Low pressure areas will be dominating our weather for the next 5 days. Today, we find ourselves on the back side of a large low pressure circulation (both surface and aloft) over southern Atlantic Canada and the adjacent North Atlantic waters. This cool pool will keep us cool and breezy with a sun/cloud mix, clouds eventually dominating, maybe with a passing shower today. The shower threat goes away but some clouds remain on Tuesday as a narrow extension of a larger high pressure area to our north tries to nose into our region. But this miniscule high pressure intrusion will be brief. The evolution of a new omega block will put its eastern low pressure member into our region from mid to late week, and surface low pressure associated with it will head from the Ohio Valley toward the Great Lakes, redeveloping near the Mid Atlantic Coast, taking a track that will bring us a chilly rain later Wednesday through Thursday, tapering off Friday – a spell of weather that will remind you of March or early April rather than late May. But there you have it…
TODAY: Sun/cloud mix with clouds becoming dominant. Chance of a passing rain shower, mainly southern NH / northeastern MA. Highs 59-66. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts as high as 30 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: More sun than clouds morning / more clouds than sun afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving southwest to northeast by late-day. Highs 53-60, coolest coastal areas. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Temperatures fall to 45-52 then steady. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain / drizzle. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Additional showers / drizzle, tapering off with time. Highs 52-59. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)
Upper level low pressure weakens but hangs around during the May 24-26 Memorial Day Weekend time period with a daily chance of diurnal showers. However much of the time will be rain-free, but cooler than normal. Yet another low pressure area brings the chance of rain May 27-28 with continued below normal temperatures.
DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29 β JUNE 2)
A slow transition from blocking to zonal flow is expected to take place. Episodes of passing showers but drier overall. Temperatures near to below normal. Day-to-day details TBD.
https://stormhq.blog/2025/05/19/weekly-outlook-may-19-26-2025/
Thanks TK
Good morning and thank you TK.
53 earlier this morning.
Touched 70 briefly yesterday.
Won’t see that for awhile.
Thanks . Cool out leaving the house at 5am this morning
Thanks TK !
Good school weather π
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=eus&band=09&length=24
That low is really exiting fast! NOT!
Thank you, TK!
Up to 52 from overnight low of 49. DP is 43
Thank you TK!
Over / under is 60F
Thanks, TK.
All the way up to 59 here. It’s a HEAT WAVE!!!
We added four for 56. I may be in the minority, but I love this weather.
I do too!
π
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif
Big wind and hail threats too near that 10 and 15% tornado contour area.
Yikes. Thanks Tom
Thanks, TK.
Cancer is awful. My thoughts are with former President Biden and his family. He has suffered a tremendous amount in his life.
Cindy McCain, wife of John McCain, put it well: https://x.com/cindymccain/status/1924332520054616457
Beautifully said. My heart aches for President Biden and his family.
Thanks, TK!
Hope you are continuing to recover and feel better, Captain.
Me too β€οΈ
I echo these well wishes. I just caught up on the blog and truly hope you are recovering well.
Thanks TK
I’m sure its stick with the ensembles for Thursday.
The gradient for light vs soaking rains is nearby.
In winter, we’d be looking at these runs and debating 2-4 vs 8-10.
The guarantee Thursday is a breezy, very chilly, well below avg temp day. Still a question on soaking vs light/borderline moderate rain event.
I think a SOAKING
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2025051912&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
10 ft high tide Thursday evening at 8pm.
Slightly above avg high tide. Large area though of 35kt winds. This might have 2 to maybe 2.5ft surge, which would make the tide essentially a King tide at 12 – 12.5 ft with waves. I could see minor coastal flooding Thursday evening. Keep watching trends.
The silver lining in our upcoming cooler than average weather is central Canada and Hudson Bay are going to be warming up, maybe in a big way, to melt a lot of snow cover and some ice.
So, once we unlock from this pattern, whenever that might be, the whole country should have a chance to warm up as the cold source region will have been greatly modified.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-met&rh=2025051912&fh=129&r=na&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-met&rh=2025051912&fh=153&r=na&dpdt=&mc=
Look at that dark red color in central Canada up to western Hudson Bay.
Again, if we’re going to be cool, it will make it easier to take knowing were getting rid of snow/ice in Canada so we can get warmer starting in early June.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2025051912&fh=150&r=na&dpdt=&mc=
This idea has support from the ICON and the GDPS
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=850t_anom&rh=2025051912&fh=150&r=na&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=850t_anom&rh=2025051912&fh=150&r=na&dpdt=&mc=
Tom, Vicki and friends:
Thanks for your kind wishes. Stealing words from Chicago, I’m “Feelin’ Stronger Every Day!” I am trying to take it easy and behave myself. I can’t believe how much energy surgery zaps from you!
I am out of school this week and go back for a half-day next Tuesday, May 27, the day after Memorial Day.
Beautiful, deep blue sky today!
Here’s some live Chicago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-wHixgp2RE
Good to know, CF. Take care.
Remembering the year 1977 with The Steve Miller Band: https://x.com/MusicJim2/status/1924249035398947095
Thanks, Joshua, for your words and The Steve Miller Band.
Great version of “Jet Airliner”!
Here’s an outstanding version of “The Joker” from “The King Biscuit Flower Hour.” I remember hearing this version many times on WBCN.
This one’s on my playlist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=geMc4fG-KlA
Love the Steve miller band. Did a bit of dancing around the room as I listened.
Big fan of Steve Miller Band.
Steve did a “solo” album in 1988 which was a cover of some old blues-based standards. “Born 2 B Blue” … If you have not heard it, I recommend it!!
Indeed. Blues are Steve Miller’s roots, if I recall correctly.
And CF, thanks for sharing “The Joker.”
I liked space cowboy
Ohhh me too. And it now is stuck in my head.
Down to 59 from 62. 44 Dp
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KMKC&hours=72
Happy PM commute to the folks in Kansas City.
1.47 inches of rain in the past hr, Tstorm with a sustained wind of 41, gusting to 61. Good times.
Wind whipping. Into the teens with gusts to high 20s/low 30s
Sultans of Swing was released on May 19th, 1978. Here, the Dire Straits perform the song 3 days before its release. https://x.com/MusicJim2/status/1924421728870011200
Sending prayers Captain Fantastic! Certainly a good week to recover from a procedure.
Oh brrr, the house temp is down to 64.3. I canβt believe I have to turn the heat on to take the chill out of the house for a few minutes at the end of May.
New post…