Friday May 30 2025 Forecast (7:22AM)

53 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

Unsettled weather prevails for the final 2 days of May as a kind of summary to the month we just went through. Drought Monitor update yesterday did indeed show the drought is gone with the exception of a very small area on Cape Cod and Nantucket. In the short term, there’s additional drought reduction / elimination potential for those final areas as well. Today, a frontal boundary sitting in the region triggers a few early-day showers, and a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring the I-95 belt region. Coverage should be fairly low overall, but any area that does see one or two pass through can experience brief downpours. Tonight, a wave of low pressure rides up the boundary and delivers widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms from late evening through overnight generally from south to north. This main area will depart by mid morning with a dry slot delivering some sun, but the trailing trough can trigger additional showers and thunderstorms any time from midday on, and an additional disturbance will bring another batch of showers and storms in the evening. This reflects faster timing than what I indicated on yesterday’s update, as the disturbance will take on more of a trough form, connected to the low pressure area that just went by, instead of developing into its own low center. This is good news for Sunday, with a drier westerly air flow dominate all day. The fact that we still have a trough overhead though means that chilly air associated with it aloft will allow the development of a fair amount of cumulus clouds on Sunday, so it’ll be a “limited sun” situation. I don’t think any of these clouds will grow capable of producing showers, so it should be a rain-free day and a bit cooler than Saturday. Monday and Tuesday feature a westerly air flow, dry weather, and a warming trend.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning including an early-day shower north of Boston. Partly sunny afternoon but isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring the I-95 belt. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 73-80 elsewhere. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Late evening and overnight widespread showers and possible thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers / thunderstorms end south to north by mid morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible any time midday on. Highs 66-73. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly mid evening to 3:00AM. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, may be cooler at the coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH but potential coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 4-8)

Watching a weak but broad area of low pressure to the south of New England which may thwart the midweek warm-up at least for a day June 4 with more clouds and a broad scale onshore air flow. Warmer weather returns after that, but watch a cold front from the north late next week (later June 6 current estimating timing) for a shower/thunderstorm threat. Early optimism for rain-free but slightly cooler weather June 7-8 weekend with influence from Canadian high pressure.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 9-13)

Still some hints of weak blocking and a round or two of unsettled weather, but details remain very fuzzy out this far.

53 thoughts on “Friday May 30 2025 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  4. Thanks TK! With graduation season upon us many will be watching these forecasts closely.

    1. Supports TK’s thinking of system tracking West of us. 🙂
      Looks like plenty of lightning potential tomorrow AM.

    2. Sfc has E or ESE winds and aloft at 850 mb, the winds do veer just a bit with height. Modestly high dewpoints, convective elements. Looking at severe wx parameters, they are non existent, but there is some instability. Is there a 1-2% chance of a very weak spinup in far SE Mass tomorrow morning ????

  11. Also, it should go without saying, but ignore what the GFS does in the Gulf 10 days from now. It’s up to its old tricks once again.

  15. I realize it is not hot. Nor is it especially humid. But, after a 10-mile run just now, I feel totally depleted with very low blood pressure. As mentioned last year, I discussed this with several doctors. They said humidity intolerance is real in some people. Some bodies can’t handle it, especially as they age. It’s why I kind of dread summer now. It’s sad. I used to love it as a kid.

    1. Sorry to hear of the effects of the warm/humid season on you.

      I think today qualifies as a very, very humid day as, for about 7-8 months now, we are aclimated largely to dps under 40F. So, a dp of 60F is almost a shock to the system.

      Maybe in mid August, today’s dp is much easier to take, because we’ll have likely been exposed to some or many days with 70F dps.

    2. I don’t run but I sure have trouble handling the humidity. And also didn’t mind it when younger

    3. I feel for you. My wife suffers the same. She is affected by
      today’s humidity and it is no where near as bad as it can get.
      Take it easy for sure.

  19. All the 12z models thus far have squashed a potential upper low further south in the Atlantic and have high pressure in control with SW flow and temps at least in the 80s next Wednesday.

    Lets see if the Euro agrees.

        1. Thanks, Tom. I don’t doubt it. I was just looking for his forecast so I would know details.

    2. I’d stop short of terming that “big heat”. It’s “warm weather” though. Problem we may face is with a low pressure area to our south around midweek, and high pressure in eastern Canada after that. Model guidance struggles to see this stuff and will often paint a much warmer picture here than we end up seeing.

      That said, there will likely be at least a couple much warmer days tucked in there.

  21. Thanks for the feedback on the humidity issue.

    Tom, you make a good point about acclimating. One of the reasons I do run on a day like today is to try and get used to it. After all, we’ve got several months ahead with sometimes higher humidity. I have a shortened season this year: About 2 months to go, as I’ll be away in late July through August, and in a place with lower dewpoints than here and cooler temps.

  25. my son is in Philadelphia and flying home tomorrow evening. new mesoscale discussion for likely tornado watch, ends at Delaware/Pennsylvania border a little south of Philly. Hoping all he has to contend with is a crapload of rain overnight.

    1. thanks JJ Still no meso discission for Philly. Fingers crossed. New spc outlook soon.

      1. I think a number of people did.

        In 1972 my mom and I stayed with Rudy Vallee at his home in the hollywood hills.

        I wanted to meet Ben Murphy for alias smith and jones. Rudy had guest starred in the show. We did visit the set But I also asked to visit the set of mod squad. I had a crush on Michael cole.

        We walked through another set on our way to mod squad. Rudy said it was the indoor set of a new series to premiere that fall called MASH

        I sure wish I’d hung around to watch some of its filming.

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