Tuesday July 25 2023 Forecast (7:23AM)

96 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 25-29)

Some summer heat is on the way, but it will be a fairly short-lived bout of it as the pattern does not support long stretches of hot weather. We’ll be quite warm and more humid today and a shower and thunderstorm threat exists from mid afternoon to early evening as a trough approaches and passes. Any storms can be strong to locally severe but not expecting widespread activity. While high pressure builds over the region aloft and a surface high settles just to the south of our region Wednesday we’ll have a very warm but rain-free day with moderate humidity, then a more classic hot stretch is ours for Thursday and Friday along with high humidity. Contrary to my previous outlook, I’m shifting the higher thunderstorm threat forecast to Thursday as a pre-frontal trough seems to want to be a vigorous player. Timing looks late afternoon / early evening for the highest threat across the region, generally west to east, and will tweak this over the next 2 updates. High temps will reach or slightly exceed 90 in many areas on Thursday, and along with high humidity the heat indices can climb well into the 90s. This will be the case again Friday, so plan accordingly if you are to be outside. Friday’s thunderstorm threat will be more limited than Thursday’s between the pre-frontal trough and an approaching cold front, the timing of which is slow enough that it looks like a passage sometime on Saturday. Still have to nail down the timing of that front and the resultant shower and thunderstorm threat, which also has a diurnal heating component to it. Expect a shower and thunderstorm chance at any time on Saturday and I’ll also fine-tune the timing on this in upcoming updates. I do not think Saturday will be as hot as the 2 days that precede it due to more cloudiness, but the high humidity is likely to be still be here ahead of the front.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms mid afternoon to early evening. Highs 82-89, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Showers and thunderstorms likely by mid to late afternoon into evening, and some can be quite strong. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms diminishing evening. Partly cloudy with patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible. Highs 89-96, hottest interior valleys, except cooler portions of South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Canadian air mass brings dry weather and lower humidity July 30-31. Higher humidity and a shower chance returns the first few days of August as a trough of low pressure moves into the region, but no significant heat.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)

Overall pattern dominated by a weak trough. A shot of drier air from Canada at some point, preceded by shower and thunderstorm chances.

96 thoughts on “Tuesday July 25 2023 Forecast (7:23AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK
    Looks like Thursday’s threat may include chance of tornadoes. Your early thoughts on that? Some model sou dings look pretty ominous, but at 60 hours, how valid is it ?

    Thanks

  3. Thanks TK
    Waking up this morning I see the SPC already has SNE in a slight risk for Thursday. A marginal risk down in Virginia where I am vacationing.

  5. Thanks TK.

    A noisy afternoon coming? I am in the minority here in that I don’t like thunderstorms. Would like to get home before they arrive.

      1. Will first it has to be one, and the locations that have an official heatwave may be limited.

        Later frontal timing would allow Saturday to be hotter. Not sure if this is the case.

  8. Thanks SAK for that Red Sox-Yankees comic relief yesterday. I remember watching that day as it unfolded. 🙂

    I wish the Celtics and Bruins could get a spark like that going. I still maintain that those two teams have had too many opportunities to win since their last respective championships (2008, 2011) and at HOME no less.

    1. Btw, as well as I remember that fight, who eventually won the game. I want to say the Red Sox. Or was it those Yanks?

      1. When I said that game was the spark that turned the season around, it wasn’t just the fight. The Sox came back from 9-4 down to win 11-10 on a Bill Mueller walk-off home run off of Mariano Rivera in the 9th.

        1. I was privileged to be at that game and was sitting in the bleachers behind the visitors bullpen. What a memory and as you mentioned a turning point.

  12. 12Z Nams are coming out now. It will be interesting
    to see if they have backed off from the tornado parameters
    for Thursday or not.

  13. As I mentioned, I hope the Celtics and Bruins get some kind of “turning point” soon. I am in my early 60s and not getting any younger.

  14. Thank you, TK. And if there is a chance of afternoon / early evening boomers, it is Tuesday. 6:00 riding lesson for my granddaughter again. Although last week, the lesson managed to make it just after the storms.

      1. No. You are so nice to ask. Daughter teaches in Millis. But granddaughter has lessons in Sutton. Moms teaching daughters tends not to be a good mix 😉

        Granddaughter also goes to facility in Millis on the days her mom teaches.

        1. Oh, well that may increase the chances. You’ll have to watch the radar. The models are useless in predicting exact locations of convection.

          1. Thanks, JPD. Lesson is only 10 minutes from my home. I will stick around if the radar looks dicey.

    1. Indeed. Pretty SCARY actually.

      Interesting that on the SREF, NOTHING shows on the
      Significant Tornado Ingredients chart. 🙂 : ) 🙂

  17. 12Z NAM continues the theme of possible tornadic
    activity on Thursday.

    21Z significant tornado parameter

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=stp&rh=2023072512&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    0Z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=stp&rh=2023072512&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    3Z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=stp&rh=2023072512&fh=63&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Here is the 21Z sounding for SW MA. Pretty robust signal

    https://ibb.co/3zScw6s

    1. I must say that it delays activity by about 3 hours over
      the 6Z run and keeps most of the action to Western sections at least till later on.

        1. Still early, but CLEARLY something to be watched and threat right now “appears” to be more in the
          Western sections of the area.

          We shall see. Will be interesting to monitor.

    1. The dew points have overachieved all summer.

      Back to oppressive today or very close to it.

      Not surprised, a consequence of the Atlantic being so warm.

      Could add to Thursday’s potential, especially if dps get into the mid 70s.

      1. This time. My dew point sensor is wacky. Sometimes it is spot on and at other times it is way off. Especially when in the process of drying out, mine reads higher than it is.

        That is why I have reverted to calculating it based
        on air temp and wet bulb temp. For whatever reason,
        my wet bulb temp seems to be more accurate than
        the humidity sensor (Base station appears to calculate
        dew point based on air temp and humidity, thus I calculate
        using wet bulb.)

          1. 12Z NAM ONLY has 87 for Boston tomorrow, thus it is not assured. Could it still happen? Sure.
            Guarantee? Nope. 🙂

            HRRR ONLY has 82.

  19. More sports news: Jaylen Brown signs super max extension with Celtics. And LeBron James son went into cardiac arrest on court yesterday, but thankfully, they revived him.

      1. LeBron James son sounds like that Buffalo Bills player who collapsed on the field last December on MNF.

  20. I can see the Thursday disturbance on the current 12z GFS at hr 21 at 500 mb.

    It looks slightly stronger compared to its 00z run.

  26. SC thanks for sending your storm my way. Quite dark here and I’m hearing thunder. It is almost an identical repeat of last Tuesday so far.

  28. A severe t storm warning was just lifted for whitinsville. The whitinsville line is in my back yard. What seemed like the worst passed a while ago and at least here it was rain (0.43 in about 15 min) and very very minimal thunder

  29. It looks like Thursday is another day to keep an eye on for thunderstorms. It would not surprise me if parts of SNE get upgraded to an enhanced risk for Thursday. SPC currently has all of SNE in the slight risk for Thursday.
    Sunny and very warm here in Virginia.

    1. I heard that this was 98.1 several days ago. This reading is INSANE!!!! What does that do to the marine life? WOW!!

    2. BIG CRACK OF THUNDER!!!

      Now I’ll check how close it was.

      There it is. Lightning Strike Less than 1/2 mile from here.

  32. Lightning struck near my son’s work in East Boston
    and caused a power surge and took out one leg of power in his building.

  33. Raining very hard right now. And it’s been raining since 3:20pm. Varying degrees of intensity.

    Making a run at 1921. Don’t think Boston will make it. But today’s rain and the possibility of more between now and July 31st will make it interesting.

  34. This is a stones throw from our Framingham home. Here’s the damage in our neighborhood Brook St at Woodland and Elda/ Florita Framingham.

    Straight line winds? Tornado?

    Should be 11 photos here if it worked

    https://imgur.com/a/cQWIGGW

      1. Sorry. This is Framingham. Not Sutton where I am now. I was not clear. But you are sure right. Just awful mess

  35. It looks like straight line wind damage from the photos. It looks like Thursday is the next watcher for thunderstorms

    1. I wondered too and thank you, JJ. I song begin to know enough to tell the difference among the three

  37. Will the severe line that went through NYC and now crossing Long Island make it to the South Coast?

      1. Thanks TK – they all seem to fading – they were strong in NYC – chased my daughter off the beach there – lots of lightning bolts and a half cloud

  38. Sad story about a hiker who was killed by a bear. See below. I do wish stories like this wouldn’t say the person “died doing what the she loved best.” To me that’s such a weird statement. It’s certainly not consoling. If I die (get hit by a car) while biking out to Concord, I don’t want the write-up to be, “Joshua died doing what he loved best.” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66302586?x

  39. Neither the NAM nor the HRRR nor the GFS nor the ECMWF (most recent runs of each as of the time of this post) forecast a heatwave for Boston.

    Also, be ready for Friday to be a lot more comfortable (in terms of humidity) than the local media is touting. Exception may be South Coast but a lot of areas are going to see a significant dew point drop during the day Friday.

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