Friday July 21 2023 Forecast (7:18AM)

121 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 21-25)

A more “typical” mid summer pattern is now ours. While in general, the large scale pattern hasn’t shifted in a major way, it’s relaxed enough to end the more persistent humid and unsettled weather and open the door for a dry air intrusion from Canada and more rain-free days than rain-threat days. But we do have some unsettled weather to get through before that marked shot of drier air. First, we have low pressure passing to our northwest today and tonight before it exits via southeastern Canada. Its warm front will edge north and northeast, with our region still north of it for much of today. A batch of thunderstorms that occurred to our west last night entered western New England in the early morning hours, and will continue its decay / dissipation process as it moves eastward, with no more than light showers surviving into the WHW forecast area west to east this morning and midday. Other showers and storms that generate during the day to our west can reach southwestern NH, central MA, and CT by later in the day as the warm front finally pushes through and a cold front approaches from the west. This front will move into the region tonight when most of our shower and thunderstorm activity will occur. Due to lack of heating for storms based on the evening / night timing, I don’t expect the storms to be all that strong, but a few isolated downpours and lightning displays are possible, so keep that in mind if you do have evening plans. Activity will settle down overnight, leaving only a few showers possible near the coast, especially Cape Cod, by morning, before the front moves offshore into the Atlantic waters. An offshore low pressure wave may keep cloudiness moving across the region at times during the day Saturday, so despite the disappearing rain chances, it will be slow to completely clear out, sky-wise. But you will notice a reduction in humidity during the day. This will set us up for a fabulous summer day on Sunday with abundant sun, seasonable warmth, and lower humidity with dew points falling to under 60 for the first time in quite a while across most of the region. And you get to enjoy this for an extra day Monday as high pressure hangs on. Tuesday’s weather will feature a bit more humidity and a later-day thunderstorm chance as a disturbance approaches from the west again.

TODAY: Most sun early. Clouds dominate. A shower possible mid morning to noon southwestern NH, central MA, CT, possibly as far east as the I-95 belt. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms later afternoon mostly I-95 belt westward. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially before midnight. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A few showers possible morning eastern areas, favoring Cape Cod. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in lower elevation locations. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point near to slightly below 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s to near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm by late day. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 26-30)

A slightly more established west to northwest flow with less trough in the region allows for very warm weather and limited shower/thunderstorm chances, with July 28 being a more likely day to see unsettled weather surrounded by rain-free days. May see a few more 90+ high temp days for portions of the region but not an indication of sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Large scale pattern features high pressure in the central US and a weak trough between the Great Lakes and Canadian Maritime region. For our area this means a couple shower/thunderstorm chances but a less pronounced unsettled pattern than previously, and no sustained major heat.

121 thoughts on “Friday July 21 2023 Forecast (7:18AM)”

  3. Thanks TK.

    It seems a day or two of Canadian intrusion but followed by several days of “humid/hot”intrusion. Typical dog days I suppose. 🙁

    Even during these Canadian intrusions, my house is just as stuffy as ever, even at night.

    2. Curious. Thank you SClarke. I may be mistaken but seem to recall hearing that wild boars can be quite dangerous. I wonder if they are a whole lot more common in Berlin than a lion.

  10. Thanks, TK.

    Unfortunately, besides at WHW for which I’m grateful, there was practically no interest in the heat- versus cold-related deaths article. I wasted a day writing that. Discouraging.

  11. Here is the wording from the SPC
    As much as 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kt effective shear
    could support some supercells this afternoon, with the potential for wind damage, some hail, and possibly some tornado risk.

  13. We lost a true great. Tony Bennett is singing among the angels today. He was 96. The first word that always came to my mind when I heard him sing was euphonious. My mom used it always when listening to him.

    2. Thanks Vicki for passing that on. Unfortunately, he had Alzheimer’s towards the end if I’m not mistaken. 96 is a good age though.

      He’s probably one of if not the very last of the old time performers.

    1. Based on damage/radar, it looks like there was a tornado on Pikes Peak (peak: 14,115’) this afternoon.

      Wonder if this ends up as the highest tornado on record in US history….maybe @USTornadoes would know?

      Honestly hard to see how it wouldn’t be, if it was near the peak.

  15. Vicki, you mentioned wild boars. They can indeed be dangerous. Some boars live in the Ardennes in Belgium where I’ve done quite a bit of hiking. I never encountered a boar, but was told to steer clear.

    1. Boars have two horns sticking out of their snouts and attack humans on instinct. Yes, they are extremely dangerous much like a shark or an alligator.

      1. Went on a hiking date in the Ardennes in the mid 80s. Just before heading into the woods, in one of the villages a cafe owner warned us about the boars. So the whole time while walking in the forest I was thinking about boars when I should have been conversing. Needless to say, there wasn’t a second date.

        1. It’s one thing to not have a second date as a result of thinking about boars. It would have been a whole different story if there was no second date as a result of meeting boars. 😉

  16. I just went outside and the STICKORAMA is back. Waiting to see if any thunderstorms develop later on today.

  17. A local mayor explains in German the similarities and differences between a boar and a lion. Even if you don’t understand German the images he shows are interesting. By the way, I can’t imagine ANY mayor in the U.S. being able to explain scientifically the differences between a boar and a lion. The German guy does it like animal classification and biology are his day job: https://nos.nl/video/2483643-duitse-burgemeester-toont-vergelijking-leeuwin-is-vrijwel-zeker-wild-zwijn

  19. A first date should not have involved hiking anyway. First dates should be nice, quiet dinners getting to know one another face to face. The hiking should have been the “second” date or even later than that.

    2. Interestingly or maybe curiously, I would have thought of a hike or anything unusual as an out of the box adventure type first date.

  20. Severe thunderstorm watch for Worcester cty and it looks as if a good portion of western MA until 8 pm.

      1. Thanks. For some reason (I’m sure caused by me) the box didn’t show up on my RadarScope. I did receive a few notifications for Worcester cty

        1. And I just checked RadarScope. Box is there now. Apparently they were having a slow Friday 😉

        2. And even with warnings, I am on the outside line of the box. Well darn. Not only are storms not making it to you, OS , they have not been making it to me either. What is that white crud in the area that spreads west from the coast? And can someone get it out of here

  21. Torrential downpour right now where I am. Second one of the day. The other just before 11am.

  23. It helps that these areas of rain are not sitting over the same area for long periods of time. Last Sunday a lot of rain in a short amount of time.

  26. Slow moving storms over saturated ground – yes there will be flooding issues. That’s the recipe.

    I for one am thankful the warm front has not made it through my area, the sun is limited, the temp is in the 70s, the wind is off the water, and the storms are not an immediate threat at my location. I’m about to mow the lawn and I gotta get it done NOWWWW.

  28. Torrential rain, frequent thunder and lightning here in Coventry, CT now with this cell moving thru. Flash flood warnings are up.

    Looks like we are well on our way to the wettest July on record here. Pretty amazing considering we have done it without a landfalling tropical system.

    2. Rain is getting even harder and now getting windy as well with frequent lightning. Absolute deluge. Too bad my rain gauge is currently not functioning.

      1. Which way is this storm headed? My wife is playing golf and I want to give her a heads up if necessary. She is in Holliston or Hopkinson.

        1. Not near either of those locations.
          Could be in line for the storms in Mark’s area IF they hold together and keep moving in that direction, but that would be perhaps an hour to 2 or more.

  30. Thunderous cracks of lightning all around, very close to the house. Dog is in a panic!

    Torrents of sideways rain and wind now. Wow!

    1. No warning on this storm and probably the right call as there is no hail and the winds arent strong enough. One of the more impressive storms though we have had in awhile though, just an incredible amount of rain, lightning and thunder. And it is not letting up.

  31. I got an alert on my phone from my NBC 10 app saying a tornado warning is in place. When I click for the details I don’t get them.
    I see a few storms with some signs of rotation, But I don’t see one
    with really tight rotation, but perhaps I am missing something????

    1. Enjoy.

      I expect nothing but leftovers. I’d even be surprised if we
      hear thunder later. 🙂

  33. The tornado warning on our area (Lunenburg) has expired. l But, right now we have a tremendous downpour and frequent lightening.

    I just saw this a bit further west:
    At 408 PM EDT, the Orange fire dept reported flash flooding occurring in Orange and across the warned area. Between 2 and 3.5 inches of rain have fallen. Excessive, torrential rains have eased although moderate to heavy rains continue to fall. The expected rainfall rate is 0.5 to 1 inch in 1 hour. Flash flooding is already occurring and additional moderate to at times heavy rains may exacerbate or trigger new areas of flooding.

  34. Storms not likely to make it to Boston or the coast as they are moving more NNE then straight east. That seems to be the general theme much of the summer so far.

    2. It you say it is showing rotation, I know there was. You have been on the mark (no pun intended) every time

  38. If that system over Windham ct drifts east and maintains strength, it may end up close to here and then maybe Holliston

    Lots of ifs and maybes

    1. Guess Nws saw the IFs too. Warned his here. We are just outside of east part. Holliston not in the box

  39. Rattlesnake is no match for a bobcat. See video below. Lightning fast reflexes. Wow! It’s like watching Ali in his prime. Quick left jabs, couple of right leads (which was something Ali did and was considered a no-no because it exposes you to your opponent, but Ali’s reflexes were so good), and a flurry combination. Game over. https://twitter.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1682430208337485824

  40. Now driving through Abington CT and getting crushed by a severe storm. Hailing like crazy, torrential rain lightning and wind. I am a storm magnet today. I am pulled over on the side of Rte 44. Hoping the car has no damage.

    1. Oh my. You sure are a storm magnet. Please be safe. And would you have time to drive to Sutton 🙂

  41. I was enjoying sushi on the deck and listening to a n audiobook when it dawned on me the rumbling I was hearing was thunder. I’m now sitting by south facing window And as if on cue, it is starting to weaken. Arghhh

  42. We’re driving east on the pike approaching Auburn, and I got a warning on my phone a few minutes ago.

  43. Not bad. Nothing on the scale of Mark or SClarke and others. And did not warrant a warning. But still good. 0.47 more rain

    We had a more severe t storm in Newton 43 years ago tonight ….around 11-12.

    1. It looks like the final round won’t be as intense. I know that other areas have had even more rain than we have. But still, we are at 11″ so far in July. That is an average of 1/2″ a day!

  45. Very ominous sky for about the past two hours now but no rumbles of thunder or even drops of rain so far, eerily quiet in the neighborhood. Not even the occasional dreaded motor bike.

    Tomorrow evening at this time, I bet lots of neighborhood activity with many loud parties going on.

    1. Tomorrow is my oldest’s 43rd birthday but I don’t expect they are celebrating statewide for her. Although if you ask her, they should be 🙂 🙂 What is tomorrow night?

  46. It has been thundering almost constantly for about an hour in Sudbury w/lots of lightning. It is raining but not really pouring. Some of the thunder is really loud. It’s trying to move off a little but it looks like there is more to the west unless it weakens. I can’t remember a thunderstorm that has continuous thunder in a long time. Rain is starting to get a little heavier. Wish all this stuff would bring in some refreshing and much drier and cooler air. Maybe it will.

    1. I saw the cell going over Framingham. It looked very strong. I wondered if it was over you. Yay.

      We seem to have some here from a small arm of a nearby cell.

  47. Made it to our destination in Swansea fine and the car looks ok. Dry as a bone here. Softball tournament tomorrow in case you didn’t guess!

    We got about 2” of rain today in Coventry including an inch in 45 min. Up to 11”on the month of June!

    1. I am so glad your travels were safe.

      11 for you a s 11 for SClarke. There is a story there. A bit teary now but will share maybe tomorrow.

  49. I am amazed that we have had a constant thunderstorm for about an hour and a half and it’s still going . Plenty of lightning!!!!

    so much for just leftovers.

  50. That was probably Boston’s biggest thunderstorm so far this summer. I was surprised the storms survived.

  52. Working on the new post now. Just wanted to check in first to say I survived. Long evening of storm chasing and I never got back here to update. Storms were expected west, and I figured they’d weaken coming east as HRRR initially indicated. That model caught on very late – at the last minute. The rest of the guidance blew it. Definitely over-performing thunderstorm event. I enjoyed the chase aspect for sure. An exclamation point of sorts on our wet summer stretch. Now, we get a break…

    (New blog post soon.)

  53. In meteorology guidance is just that. Based on modeled projections it points to what could happen or is likely to occur.

    In government talk, guidance is anything but that. FDA guidance, or CMS (Medicare and Medicaid) guidance documents or memoranda detail precisely how some policy will be implemented. To me it’s an improper use of the term. Perhaps handguide or manual might be a better way to describe it. But it’s not guidance in the way that I see it.

    Of course, government talk is really a separate language, and one I do not fully understand. CMS, for example, uses a term called “sub regulatory guidance” or “sub-regs” in Medicare parlance. To this day, I don’t really understand what it means. And I believe government officials want it to remain as obscure and opaque as possible.

    1. First time I encountered the term “sub-regs” was when I was speaking with a CMS lifer, a great guy, by the way. I said something to him, and he said “oh, you mean a sub.” First thing that came to mind with me was an Italian sub. I love those. But I knew he didn’t mean a sandwich. I said, “Jeff, what is a sub?” He said, “oh it’s just a sub-reg, you know, a sub regulatory guidance.” Of course this confused me even more. To this day he and I laugh about my first encounter with CMS-ese.

    2. It all kinds of ties in in its own way.

      I often remind people “guidance not gospel” but even I can get lulled by an HRRR that has been performing well. I think it got me a bit yesterday.

      In meteorology, sometimes having guidance that has been performing well can be not-so-good, because you tend to trust it too much, then get burned big time.

Comments are closed.