Sunday July 23 2023 Forecast (7:44AM)

89 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 23-27)

A brief discussion for today’s update so I can kick you out to enjoy the very nice weather! A ribbon of high clouds behind an offshore frontal boundary filters and limits the sun a little for a portion of the morning, and some lower clouds / fog sit over Nantucket, but that will improve and the high clouds will shift eastward with the area overall enjoying abundant sun and lower humidity with seasonable temperatures – warmest inland, coolest at the beaches where light sea breezes will develop. Dew point temperatures today will range from about 55 to 62 by this afternoon after being a little higher than that to start the day, and will be highest along the coast where the temperature will be the coolest. High pressure hangs on Monday and even a sliver of it remains over the region between two disturbances through Tuesday. One low pressure area, small and weak, will track south of our area later Monday into Tuesday, spreading some of its high level clouds in. Another disturbance approaching from the northwest later Tuesday will be slow enough that its diurnal showers will never reach the region. They should dissipate and just remnant clouds should cross the area Tuesday night, based on current timing. Dew points creep up a tiny bit on Tuesday, but it’ll still be relatively comfortable. Even Wednesday, which is going to be a warmer to borderline hot day, even at the coast, with a westerly wind, the dew point will not sky rocket, held in check by the down sloping action of the westerly breeze off the hills / mountains to our west. For the best combo of warmth without uncomfortable humidity, Wednesday is the day. High pressure off the US East Coast will help intensify the heat a little more and bump up the humidity by Thursday, but I’m not expecting any thunderstorms that day due to it being too warm aloft and therefore too stable, also lacking any surface mechanism to trigger them, so just expect a hot summer day with fair weather.

TODAY: Early clouds eastern areas, then sunny. Highs 81-88 except cooling back to the 70s coastal areas. Dew point middle 50s to lower 60s, highest along the shoreline. Wind NW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind variable up to SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches may form in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds, then sun dominates. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Heat, humidity, and thunderstorm chances July 28 as a cold front approaches and high pressure sits offshore. A shot of Canadian air brings warm weather and lower humidity for the final few days of July before humidity and unsettled weather returns to greet the arrival of August.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)

Indications are trending toward weak troughing, higher humidity, and some shower / thunderstorm chances – a weaker version of a pattern we’ve seen much of the summer.

89 thoughts on “Sunday July 23 2023 Forecast (7:44AM)”

  3. Thanks TK !

    We encountered moderate rainshowers Friday driving westward along the northern third of Nova Scotia.

    Unfortunately, reading that down around Halifax, Nova Scotia and surrounding areas, they rec’d 7-10 inches of rain in hours.

    Tragically, 4 people are missing and seeing photos of tremendous flooding and road washouts.

    1. Welcome home.

      7-10. Dear heavens it seems as if every time you turn around there is a tragic weather event.

      I’m very happy you are home safely and that you had a special vacation.

      1. Thanks Vicki, it was awesome !

        Yes, they just dealt with Fiona, which everyone in Nova Scotia and Cape Breton mentioned.

  4. Thank you, TK. As I read, I wondered about how long it takes you to prepare the write up and forecast each day

    1. I’ve wondered that, too.

      It’s a lot of work. TK writes and explains well, and of course he’s got to base that write-up on analysis of models and interpretations of the data as well as a good bit of historical referencing.

      1. Yep, not to mention the monitoring of comments and adjustments he makes mid-day when there’s sensible weather forming. I’ll let him confirm but I think it takes him about 1/2 an hour to do the actual write up? At least, that’s what I remember him saying when I suggested he start a Northern California branch of the blog and he wisely declined 🙂

  5. Thank you, TK.

    This could be the hottest week of the year. Not surprising. Typically the hottest days of the year do occur in the last 10 days of July. We’re also reaching our highest (historical) average maximum temperature this week.

    Tom, welcome home. BBC posted an article on the four people missing in Nova Scotia. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66281055?

    1. Thanks Joshua !

      The system that gave those thunderstorms here Friday, I think it was, it grabbed a big chunk of moisture and humidity from the Atlantic and just focused it into Halifax. Kind of like a west coast atmospheric river.

    2. Even though I know the reasons why, it always fascinated me that
      our highest temperature of the year follow around a month or
      so after the Solstice where the sun is at the highest angle.

      1. Now that’s a curious thought. Thanks. I know it is not close to this simple but.., Is it in part because it takes about a month for the higher angel to warm the earth.

        2. In a sense.
          There was just a long cold winter with snow cover and frozen ground to our North. It takes time for all of the snow to melt and the ground to unfreeze. Until that happens, it generally prevents higher temperature here on average. (Of course there can always be a hot day depending upon air mass and wind direction etc.)

          I believe that is the reader’s digest version of the reason. I am sure TK can chime in with a more technical explanation. 🙂

    2. Sure do remember that.
      Friends of ours were staying in Harwich and got an alert on
      their phone. The ignored it and slept through it. When we called them, they still had no idea until we told them to open the door and take a look around. They saw trees down all over the place.

      The fact that they were safe, made their reaction pretty funny. 🙂

  8. Logan is about to go to a sea breeze as the wind is calm.

    Temp 77 and a wonderfully DRY dew point of 64!!!!

    1. 64 dp is nice compared to what we have been experiencing, but
      let me tell you, that is NOT dry. 🙂

  11. Thanks TK.

    According to Jacob, high heat arrives this week with Boston’s first heat wave. Did I hear correctly upper 90s? YIKES!!

    1. I SINCERELY HOPE NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      low 90s is bad enough

    2. GFS has

      Web 89 for boston
      Thurs 92 at 2PM for Boston.
      Fri 94

      Shows 97 just SW of the city.

      EURO

      Wed 88 for Boston
      Thurs 91 for Boston
      Fri 90 for Boston

      Guidance doesn’t necessarily support upper 90s.
      I guess we’ll have to wait and see. 🙂

  13. From an 850 mb temp perspective, Friday, depending on cloud cover and wind direction, has very high temp POTENTIAL.

    1. 12Z GFS shows about 95-96 potential for Fri while about 89-90 on Thurs. We shall see.

      95 calculated as follows:

      850 temp = 20 C or 68 F

      add 27.5 (dry adiabatic rate of 5.5 F per 1,000 feet)
      (5 * 5.5 = 27.5)

      68 + 27.5 = 95.5

      OF course this is approximate. 🙂

          1. Getting some agreement.

            The good news is that it looks like the jet stream buckles afterwards delivering what might be a nice push of cooler, drier air afterwards, unless the models are overdoing a SE Canada closed low northwest of the Maritimes.

  14. I usually don’t like beards at all, but it actually makes AJ Burnett very distinguished, just right.
    🙂
    On Jacob, not so much, although it does hide his “baby face” appearance. 😉

    2. Kind of due to El Niño.

      “ NOAA global analysis chief Russ Vose said the record hot June is because of two main reasons: long-term warming caused by heat-trapping gases spewed by the burning of coal, oil and natural gas that’s then boosted by a natural El Nino, which warms parts of the Pacific and changes weather worldwide adding extra heat to already rising global temperatures. He said it’s likely most of June’s warming is due to long-term human causes because so far this new El Nino is still considered weak to moderate. It’s forecast to peak in the winter, which is why NOAA and other forecasters predict 2024 to be even hotter than this year.”

      I believe July also set best records in 2019 and 2021. Not sure about others.

      1. dp 61 here!! BOOO

        And that is calculated so more accurate than what is reported
        on my equipment. Of course that is IF the Wet Bulb temp
        is close to accurate. 🙂

  17. Because it’s the GFS and it’s so long range, I won’t post maps.

    But, we’re finally getting a new roof, new siding, new everything on our house, which starts in a few days.

    We have to, it’s so long overdue.

    So, I know we’re certain to be hit by a tropical system this year.

    1. I hate that kind of work. Very expensive and disruptive!!

      Let’s keep tropicals AWAY!!!!!

  18. Thin, top layer of the ocean is warming nicely under the sunny, warm, light wind conditions.

    Boston Harbor buoy is 71F and Nantucket and south of block island buoys are 77F.

    I took these numbers off of the 1pm Obs, I’m thinking they are rounded, so may not be exact.

    1. Did you actually mean the Boston Harbor buoy? or did you mean
      Boston Buoy which is 16 NM due East of Boston? They are 2 different buoys. Thanks

      1. Good question, I’m not sure.

        On the hourly Obs report from Norton NWS, it’s the first one at the bottom of the buoy reports.

          1. Boston Harbor buoy is station: BHBM3
            located near entrance to Fort Point Channel

            Boston Buoy is station: 44018
            Located 16 NM East of Boston

    1. This is quite typical in summer. The abnormally dry and warm (even hot in places) June in the UK was atypical.

        1. With water temperatures all over the world (Fla. coast 90s) it’s a wonder though that there haven’t been a parade of storms by now in the Atlantic. Wouldn’t want to stick my toes into the GOM or the Caribbean right now. OUCH!!!

          I believe we are only up to D storms.

  23. I often don’t understand what these WBZ maps are showing:
    https://ibb.co/k0Q2V7D

    It looks to me that there is a marginal risk to the west that only includes the northwest part of MA. What does the lighter color indicate? I don’t see it on the key at the top of the screen.

    1. You got me. Doesn’t make sense to me either. I checked Sarah’s forecast on the WBZ site but the map wasn’t there. I notice she has mostly mid 70s thru the week. No 90s.

      1. That map is about two minutes into Sarah’s evening forecast.

        They’ve shown similar maps many other times too.

          1. No 🙂

            The darker shade of green is marginal.

            The lighter shade of green is tstorm. It’s a category below marginal if you will.

            Bz’s map is derived from the SPC map below.

            In weather terms, further north and west has a small chance of a tstorm with some severe quality, the a bit southeast of that, they believe there could be a tstorm that doesn’t have severe characteristics.

            1. Now I’m more confused. And I suspect it is me. Funky day. But I don’t see a light green in the key. I see a yellow. And I don’t see yellow on the map. I see light green.

              Did I succeed in confusing everyone now

              1. LOL 🙂

                VT and NY under marginal. Small chance of hail and wind damage per SPC discussion.

                NH under tstorm. SPC doesn’t believe this small zone has chance of seeing severe weather.

                2. Still confused. I thought SClarke was asking about the key so ran with that. I’m going to slowly back away now.

                  But not before saying it is very nice to have you home. 🙂

  24. Just 1 more thought above.

    The bz tstorm outlook map doesn’t have, in its key, the plain tstorm contour that the SPC does, which can cause confusion.

    There’s no slight in the spc outlook for the northeast tomorrow and thus, slight does not describe either of those 2 colors on the bz map.

    🙂 🙂

  25. It’s 66F in Barrow, AK. Warm, but it’s been warmer.

    I am a bit surprised by the dp of 57F. It was 60F at one point yesterday.

    These 2 readings are with an E wind.

    Per Obs, if their wind ever goes S, it’s 80F just south of Barrow.

    That would be something.

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