Tuesday May 23 2023 Forecast (7:12AM)

43 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 23-27)

This update carries very little change in the thought process applied to yesterday’s. We’ll have mainly dry weather during the next 5 days, including the start of the Memorial Day Weekend. The only interruption will be a period of rain along a sharp cold front passing through late Wednesday. Before that, a continued easterly flow keeps eastern coastal areas coolest today, and while a southerly wind warms much of the region tomorrow, the South Coast will be coolest. After the front goes by, another Canadian high delivers a fresh cool air mass on a north wind Thursday. By Friday/Saturday, high pressure builds over the region, with a more variable wind leaving the coast vulnerable to sea breezes while it’s milder to warmer inland, but with nice weather heading into the holiday weekend! Backing up slightly, we’ll still be seeing mid to high altitude wildfire smoke from Canada filtering the sun that we have into Wednesday (before clouds arrive anyway). This smoke plume will get pushed to our south by Thursday, and we’ll have to watch to see if it sneaks back in late week.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 64-71, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then clouds advancing northwest to southeast. Showers crossing much of the region northwest to southeast late afternoon and evening, most coverage to the north and west, less to the southeast. Highs 68-75, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from northwest to southeast late afternoon on.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70, coolest coastal areas. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

A little more confident today that we see generally dry weather for the balance of Memorial Day Weekend (May 28-29) with low pressure staying well to our south, and upper level low pressure triggering diurnal showers over the mountains to our north. Will continue to watch these days closely. Prognosticating upper level low pressure to be in our area and a disturbance or two moving by with a couple shower threats May 30-31. High pressure builds in at the end of the period to start June fair and mild.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 2-6)

High pressure should be the main player at the the surface while a weak upper trough dominates. The mildest weather should occur early period, but watching Canadian high pressure yet again to possibly deliver a decent cool shot mid or late period. Not sure if a shower threat is involved in that transition quite yet, but not seeing any big rain events or early heat threats.

43 thoughts on “Tuesday May 23 2023 Forecast (7:12AM)”

  1. For the music fans here, sharing a gem of an album from long ago. Not as far back as the Tijuana Brass days, but the iconic “Rise” album, by Herb Alpert. Some of the tracks on this album were the soundtrack of my early teenage life – and continue to be today. Worth every moment of ear-time, especially if you like this style!

    The “hit” song from the album was the title track, but track 4 was also a single. If you watch the music video for track 4 and then track 2 in that order, it’s like a simple mini movie. 🙂

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zTQYmrPtic

  11. Question – the smoke affecting us and other areas are from northwestern Canada. I looked at the weather there and the whole area is under very hot temps. So, it is very hot and dry there and the brush fires are caused by that. Can just heat itself cause fires? I heard somewhere that lightning is happening there. So, are there a lot of thunderstorms there or people throwing matches, which seems weird. Anyone have any explanations why a sunny , hot and dry day would start a fire?

    1. Western Canada has had a very, very, very warm spring and very dry.

      The main area has received clouds and rain the last few days, so it will be interesting to see once the system moves away, how much it helped.

      Yes, there can be thunderstorms where the low levels are so dry that the rain evaporates before it hits the ground, but the lightning strikes still happen.

      Looking on-line, there’s nothing definitive that I could find for cause as far as from drought vs purposefully or unintentionally being started by people.

      1. Thanks, Tom for your reply! And especially regarding how rain can evaporate but the lightning strikes still happen. Makes a lot of sense.

      1. The last time a typhoon passed directly over the island was Pongsona in December of 2002. However, Typhoon Dolphin passed in between Guam and Rota in May of 2015, close enough to both that they were both in the eyewall. From the northern tip of Guam to the southern tip of Rota, the distance is only about 30 miles, so that storm threaded the needle for sure.

    1. yup ! Great end of the year school weather 🙂 🙂 🙂

      There’s a chance they are still focused on academics with it this chilly.

  18. The Carolinas or somewhere down along the SE US coast sure look like they have a rainy, somewhat windy Memorial Day weekend coming.

  19. Operational model forecast scorecard for 12z today, WHW forecast area for MDW…

    GFS…
    Saturday: Dry.
    Sunday: Dry.
    Monday: Dry.

    GEM…
    Saturday: Dry.
    Sunday: Dry.
    Monday: Dry.

    ECMWF…
    Saturday: Dry.
    Sunday: Dry.
    Monday: Isolated light showers south of I-90.

  20. CFS & CANSIPS monthly climate models really like trough in the eastern US pretty much for the next half year or longer. 😉

  22. 18z operational GFS continues the dry theme for the long weekend, only depicting a few remnant showers drifting down from the mountains Monday night.

  23. Looks like it will be dry and partly sunny in Amsterdam most of the time I’m there. They’re having an extended period of a northeasterly, which is analogous to our northwesterly. I leave tomorrow night. They have Monday off, but it’s obviously not for Memorial Day. It’s Whit Monday, a traditional Christian holiday which is a bank holiday there, just like all other traditional Christian holidays (includes day after Christmas, day after Easter, Ascension Day, which is always on a Thursday, and Good Friday). The Dutch are no longer particularly religious. In fact, they’re less religious than we are. But, their holiday calendar is still filled with traditional Christian holidays. Other than New Year’s and the King’s birthday there are no secular holidays in the Netherlands.

  24. Judah saying 20-25 over 90 with scorcher summer coming for Boston . Time will tell

    2. I think the opposite pattern will be predominant. J.C.’s got ridge W & E coasts, trough in the middle.

      I say ridge in the middle, trough E & W. Around 10 days of 90+ for a maximum for the city.

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