Friday May 19 2023 Forecast (7:35AM)

41 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)

Today will look a little more like summer again due to the smoky haze in the sky from the ongoing Canadian wildfires, and we’ll warm up a little more after our midweek cool spell as we get a southerly wind going too, but keep in mind that a southerly wind is a direct ocean breeze on the South Coast, so it will be cooler there than the remainder of the region. The weekend is kind of a split, with an unsettled Saturday and improvement Sunday. On Saturday we’ll be in the southerly air flow but this time with more moisture involved in the way of a mainly cloudy sky. One swath of moisture will approach from the south while a trough and cold front move our way from the west. My thoughts are similar to what I wrote yesterday in that I think the initial area of showers from southern moisture will peel off to the east, clipping Cape Cod mostly, and a hang back area being captured by the front from the west, helping to give most of the region its showery weather later in the day Saturday and Saturday evening/night, lingering into very early Sunday as the frontal boundary reaches the coast then pushes offshore. This sets up a drier day for Sunday, although it will be quite mild with a drying westerly wind behind the front and the cooler air lagging somewhat. High pressure should hang to the north Monday with more of an easterly wind setting up and that will end up a cooler day as a result. With high pressure more atop the region Tuesday we’ll be fair with light wind but coastal sea breeze can easily get going, keeping that area coolest.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun with patchy clouds. Highs 67-74 except 60-67 immediate South Coast / Cape Cod / Islands. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely Cape Cod region midday into afternoon. Showers arrive west to east late-day / evening. Highs 62-69, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Lows 52-59. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds at times, some sun at others. Chance of a shower early in the day favoring eastern coastal areas and especially Cape Cod. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)

Still watching low pressure to the south in case it comes further north than guidance says early in the period, otherwise looks like high pressure wants to dominate with one front sneaking down to cool the region off prior to next weekend before a warm-up begins.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

Current call is for fair weather to hold through Memorial Day (May 29) before a system from that west brings a shower threat to end the month. Fair, seasonable start to June.

41 thoughts on “Friday May 19 2023 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  3. That disturbed area off the Carolina coast.

    If it had more time to sit over the Gulf stream ….. looking at water vapor loops, it doesn’t look like its associated with any cold core mid latitude systems and the upper winds aren’t too hostile ….

    Lots of thunderstorms, but water temps still cool and surrounding airmass probably not hot and humid enough.

    In any case, hoping a lot of this tropical moisture is indeed New England bound.

  5. Thanks, TK.

    Panthers are a team of destiny. At least that’s what it looks like. They won last night against Carolina in the 4th overtime, just 12 seconds removed from going into the 5th overtime.

    Try to imagine how physically fit you’d have to be to skate and play the number of minutes that all the Panthers and Hurricanes had to last night.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    May I assume that the concord NH area will see rain hold off until mid-ish afternoon tomorrow?

  8. I was thinking a few days ago, the approaching cold front and this tropical moisture might not connect, with the tropical moisture missing mostly east.

    But the trend has been for a connection and for it to happen further and further west.

  10. (12z) 3 km NAM’s rain ribbon location seems to match with 12z HRRR

    regular NAM is a little more southeast across SE Mass

  11. What I take out of the 12z runs is, some towns may be susceptible to localized flash flooding.

    The ground is dry and if it really pours over a few hour period in the same area, some of that water may just roll off, as opposed to soak in.

  12. Good afternoon and thank you TK. Was off from work and out fishing. Plenty of fish, but nothing big. 🙂

      1. It was very peaceful, thank you. 🙂
        heard a crap load of different birds, but didn’t see any of them.

  15. TK, with your agricultural knowledge, do u foresee any lasting effects to crops like apples, pears, and peaches from freeze damage from the low temps this week? All these trees had full blossoms at the time

    1. While I think some of the flowers may have been damaged, most areas stayed above the real damage threshold of 28.2F, which needs to be reached or fallen lower than for 1 hour for significant issues. Where it was a radiational cooling event, the lowest elevations were coldest, and many apple and pear trees tend to be on slopes or hills which would probably have offered some protection. Peaches may have been slightly more vulnerable, but I don’t think we’ll see a major impact on those either, other than a few isolated locations.

        1. Looking forward to those peaches at the Farmers Market (Copley Square) come August. A few years ago, the spring peach crop around here was completely ruined. I want to say 2017?

          Last year, the strawberry crop was pitiful. Those Farmers Market berries were about the size of grapes. Not totally exaggerating. I really love strawberry shortcake so I ended up going to a major grocery chain for my strawberries from “elsewhere” (outside of New England).

            1. Snow is generally good for crops.

              1) Snow that covers early growth (unless there is damage from the weight) is insulating.

              2) Snowmelt provides needed moisture for development.

      2. TK, I sent you a Facebook PM with pics of the frost/freeze damage on apple trees of a friend of mines farm in NH. Doesn’t look good.

        1. Saw that. It was colder up there. They probably had a hard freeze or borderline one. This is one of those places that may have suffered more damage while many avoided it.

  16. Normally a hometown fan, but not anymore with respect to the Celtics. The Heat – practically the entire team is undrafted – play as a team, are well-coached, and have the best playoff player around in Jimmy Butler. On the other hand, the Celtics play an excruciatingly inconsistent brand of basketball. They have more talent than the Heat, but certainly don’t demonstrate it.

    1. I’ve seen a lot of people abandoning the teams (Bruins, Celtics, actually Sox and Pats too).

      Once you leave that door, you’re not allowed back without a t-shirt that reads “fair weather fan”. 🙂

      That’s how I feel on that subject. Always have. Always will. 🙂

      1. I see it differently. I believe a team has to earn fan loyalty.
        And for a number of different reasons, some of our teams
        do not deserve the fan loyalty.

        If a Team is going through a tough time, but are well coached and management has done all they can, they fans should remain loyal. However, when they are either not well coached (Patriots last year or mismanaged (current Red Sox) then they do not deserve the fan loyalty.

        Just m,y take. Call me a fair weather fan is you must, but I don;t see it that way. 🙂 🙂

        1. That is very fair and I think a lot of folks agree with you. Probably more than would agree with TK and me.

          Just playing the devil’s advocate here. I’m
          Not sure it is possible for any team or any single player to be perfect or to “gel” every game. Part of a sport…or life in general…is having good days and having not so good days. Doing your best doesn’t always mean you win. But doing your best and being faulted when your best isn’t enough I think in general only makes it harder to get past any difficulties.

          You gave a really good example. I agree that the Pats were mismanaged last year and frankly are showing signs of it this year. But a good deal of that, if not all, is due to the head coach. (We have the answer to was it Brady or BB. ) The players want to win. When a coach mismanages or shatters individual or team morale, the team cannot function well. To me at least, the team needs to know its fans get it. Actually the manager should get it. I’m definitely a pats fan but have no use for BB. I guess that makes me a BB fair weather fan.

          It’s a fine line, isn’t it?

      2. Absolutely agree. But you know that. Sad part is that a team needs its fans the most when it is struggling. Booing and turning a back only makes the sting worse for the players and the team as a whole.

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