Arctic Chill

562 Comments

12:42AM

Here it is – the well-advertised arctic cold outbreak that it seems like took longer to get here than an excited 6-year-old’s birthday party. Some number of days ago, before the “Case Of The Mysterious Norlun” distracted us, I had mentioned that this cold outbreak, though significant, would not be memorable. We’re not going to set any temperature records in this one, but nevertheless it will be the coldest it has been around here in 2 years from today through Friday morning, along with some bitterly cold wind chills. Use caution if you will be outside for any length of time. There will be a sneaky disturbance sliding across the sky just south of us early Thursday, responsible for some clouds, but nothing more.

Looking ahead a little to the storm threat for the end of the week, there is still some uncertainty as to how it will play out. A look at most guidance will show that the type of pattern we’re in will push the developing storm more east than north, lessening its impact potential in southern New England. But it would not take that much of a slightly more amplified jet stream than what these models indicate to bring that storm a little closer and increase the snow threat, and there are, in fact, a few models that indicate this possibility. With this uncertainty in place, I’ll play the cheap-way-out  middle of the road generic forecast wording for now, until I start to get a better feel for what will happen.

Beyond that event, which in whatever form it comes will be late Friday to early Saturday, expect a return to fair but cold weather Sunday, and then a moderation for the beginning of next week as the jet stream relaxes and lifts northward into southeastern Canada above a flat ridge of high pressure building across the east central United States. This will probably be a fairly short-lived moderation as there are already signs of another cold outbreak around the start of February.

Detailing the next 7 days for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 14-19. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 10.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-5. Wind W 10-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH. Wind chill -5 to -10, briefly colder at times.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny.  Highs 12-17. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH. Wind chill near to often below zero.

FRIDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Snow at night. Low 0. High 25.

SATURDAY: Clearing. Snow early morning. Low 15. High 26.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 27.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 20. High 35.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 39.

562 thoughts on “Arctic Chill”

  1. Thanks TK. 0z Euro doesn’t look a whole lot different than the prior 12z run with a sideswipe for SNE. It doesn’t need to shift a ton though to bring more significant precip in here. We’ll see what today brings…should have a better handle on this by tonight’s runs.

  2. Apart from euro which to be honest is a glancing blow this is not looking good. Again still not sure what Matt N is going with but clearly he sees something most don’t. Lets are what guidance shows us today.

  3. Thanks TK !

    Mt Washington current ob :

    -33.5F, wind NW @ 73.2 mph, windchill : -84.6F.

    It first, with Logan being 11F this morning and seeing a fairly sunny day coming, I was thinking 20F is attainable. But, after seeing this ob, maybe the temps barely budge today.

  5. Well, I’ve seen enough now to pack it up on this one.

    This stinks!

    What, are we going to have to wait till March to get one close only to have to factor in b.l. temps, high sun angle etc…

    Ugggghhhh!

    Nice stats Tom this morning. That’s brutal stuff.

  7. Thanks TK.
    This next system tracking furhter south although could still bring a light snowfall to parts of SNE. Any shift northward in the track could make a big difference. Clearly this will not be a blockbuster but I would not rule out snow completely yet.

    1. I mentioned yesterday to expect a liquid precip event near month’s end, during the temporary moderation.

      1. Are the models still showing a short, but noticeable cold blast for the beginning of February or is BUST going to be the theme for this winter? If so, maybe some snow chances then.

  12. Really have to hear all that Charlie ? We know your excited its gonna rain and not snow. And we know your excited winter is over in your opinion.

    Anyway read Matt N thoughts and he bring up some interesting stuff.

    1. It’s kind of funny how the short wave at 500 mb on most guidance is stronger for the disturbance that is going to bring us a few clouds tonight than it is for the late week threat. 😉

      Have a great day everyone! Stay warm!

  13. this storm is a bust. the nest storm looks warm. of course when Neww mentioned the storm it went poof.

    1. Oh it’s not their fault. 🙂

      I have lived through many, many frustrating snow winters. In fact, they tend to come in pairs. 😉

    1. Came out of my neighborhood onto Rt 139 at the point where the Police Station is straight ahead of me and there were all the trucks for 4, 5, 7 and 25.

  15. Thanks, TK. And thank you for that awesome thunderstorm video! It put a big smile on my face and a great tool for teaching kids too. I guess I’m a kid too ’cause I LOVED it!! 🙂

    This coming wknd. looks interesting – one that has to be nowcasted rather than forecasted.

    It is 8 degrees in Sudbury now.

  16. Bundle the little ones up this morning! Even us hearty folks are going to need a few extra layers today 🙂

    1. WBZ showed a group of young skiers warming up for a competition early this morning. Those kids had a layer of ice on their faces!

  18. This is not over folks regarding the late week storm. I’m giving it till tomorrow. I still feel we get significant snow in here Fri nite-Saturday. Stay tuned!

      1. This particular storm is progged to pick up some moisture from the gulf and then head to the atlantic for further development. If this storm strenghthens faster than advertised AND/OR shifts a bit to the northwest, we’re in for it. There are telling signs that the PV will be retreating some, thereby allowing the jet to amplify a bit more and allowing the storm to trend closer. Models will pick up on this feature.

  19. I did see o Monday night on TWC their temp outlook for the next three months. They had us below normal for Feb and above normal for March and April and much above was not that far away.

    1. I’m in the middle of a bunch of computer runs. Can only bop in
      for brief moments. Perhaps Hadi can post. If not, I’ll try shortly. 😀

  22. Good Morning All.

    Pretty chilly this AM. House therm and car therm both were reading 10F.
    Below average, yet Perfectly normal. We even saw it this cold in last year’s
    pathetic Winter. 😀

    Took a quick look at the 0Z guidance and the two 06Z Models.
    This weekend still looks OTS to me. I just do NOT understand what
    Matt Noyes and NEWW are seeing or thinking? I’d love to know.
    Is it a gut response on their part? Do they just think the upper winds will
    amplify? I don’t get it at all.

    We’ll see what the 12Z Euro and Canadian have to say. 😀

  23. The shortwave is coming into the west today so let’s see what the 12Z data says as it should have much better sampling involved.

    1. Euro at 72 hours:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013012300&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=072

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013012300&region=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=072

      Euro at 96 Hours:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013012300&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=096

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013012300&region=USA&var=HGT_500mb&hour=096

  34. HPC write up, they are waiting for more sampling

    OTHERWISE…SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE REGARDING THE
    WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
    APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC DAYS 2 AND 3/THROUGH 12Z
    SATURDAY. SOLUTION POSSIBILITIES RANGE FROM THE STRONGER/HEAVIER
    UKMET…TO THE INTERMEDIATE ECMWF…TO THE WEAKER/FLATTER
    GFS…WHILE THE NAM MOVES TOWARD THE OUTER EDGES OF THE GUIDANCE
    IN MULTIPLE AREAS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND THUS IS CONSIDERED
    LESS RELIABLE THAN MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS.

    THE FORECAST APPROACH IS CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR ISSUANCES…WHICH
    IS FAVORING AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION INVOLVING THE STRONGER ECMWF
    AND WEAKER GFS…WHILE EXCLUDING THE SOLUTIONS FURTHEST FROM THE
    CONSENSUS…I.E. THE NAM/UKMET…UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
    QUESTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES INLAND AND CAN
    BECOME MORE THOROUGHLY SAMPLED FOR IMPROVED MODEL INITIALIZATION.
    THEREFORE…UNTIL THIS OCCURS CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULAR DETAILS
    IS LESS THAN IDEAL. THE LATEST PROBABILITIES REFLECT THIS
    INTERMEDIATE APPROACH THAT PRODUCES TWO MAIN AREAS OF SNOW…ONE
    OVER THE APPALACHIANS WITH A WEAKENING LOW…AND ANOTHER NEAR THE
    MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHERE THE LOW POSSIBLY REFORMS. A MINIMA IN
    SNOW MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE LOWS…WHILE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
    THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT…AN AXIS OF FREEZING
    RAIN APPEARS LIKELY. MODEL AMOUNTS WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN 0.25
    INCHES AND DISAGREED ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT. HOWEVER…THE
    POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION
    VERIFIES. THEREFORE…A 10 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 0.25
    INCHES WAS ADDED TO THIS REGION AND ATTEMPTS TO CAPTURE THE
    CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREA.

  35. Clearly dating will become more defining once the disturbance reaches land. This is not even close to being set in stone. I will continue to place more emphasis on the EURO and discount the NAM. The GFS should still strongly be considered with more credence to the EURO.

  36. I have a question. Back in the days of Don Kent – say thirty five years ago, how long in advance were the signs of a “storm?” It seems we turn ourselves inside out over computer model runs of simulated weather that doesn’t yet exist? I’m not a snow fan but it doesn’t seem kind of silly to get all bent out of shape over what can essentially be looked at as a video game?

    2. I’m completely on board with you arod, is that name ok as your name is long to spell out. Again I’ll say it. The models have been continually showing one thing and doing another.people here should put that into consideration before buying into the ots version. Going on gut instinct for this one. We get it. It’s a Friday night storm and done by mid Saturday morning. South of Boston sees the most, Plymouth county more in it this time than the last one. Maybe six for Boston. This is just guessing. Take care.

  37. Beautiful morning. Ran early to get in as much cold as possible. Will do the same tomorrow. Only disappointment is that the cold spell isn’t lasting very long. I see 40s several days next week. It appears some cooler air follows, but could what we’re currently experiencing be the last true cold wave of the year? Gosh, I hope not. I live for this stuff. The flipside of this weather – HHH in July – feels gross to me.

    With the brisk wind the Charles will not freeze over. I had predicted back in October that it would. And if it doesn’t freeze now, it won’t freeze later on no matter how cold it gets. The reason is the number of sunlight hours is increasing which reduces the possibility of ice formation considerably, regardless of the surface temperature.

  44. OS. Not one of the METS are crediting the NAM. It has already been discarded. The glancing blow from the GFS is what is at play while the EC is even closer. It’s a blend between the EC/GFS that is being the most strongly considered. Similarly, the UKMET, which is giving us a direct hit is also being discounted. In summary, both the NAM and UKMET are the extreme outliers, especially since the storm hasn’t hit land yet. It’s foolish to base your OTS solution upon the NAM.

      1. It would be foolish of me if I was calling for a blockbuster like the UKMET and apparently the JMA 🙂 And for the record, I never called you foolish.

        1. I understand what you are saying.

          This is what I am basing it on:

          GFS – Miss
          NAM – Miss
          CMC – Miss
          Euro – grazing/light event

          Ukmet is useless as is the JMA. Not looking at those at all. Not looking at Nogaps either.

          So with the 4 reasonable players in this game, 3 out 4 are a miss and 1 is a close call.

          We shall see.

          1. Believe me. You plenty of support. However, the NAM is also useless concerning this storm until the storm emerges on land. It has been thrown out. So it really is 2 out of 3. I think models will begin to trend toward the EC and the EC will trend further northwest. I could be dead wrong but oh well.

  45. Amazing how so many of our met bloggers are quiet out there. Near total silence. I wonder who will flinch first.

    Even Bastardi has been quiet for like three hours. I didn’t think that was possible.

  46. I’m sorry. Bastardi hasn’t tweeted for ten hours!

    Someone must have finally put him in a straight jacket and stuffed him in a closet.

  48. Well…they let him out.

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

    If all you had was the JMA or UKMET you would say, wow what a storm. Sure enough GFS at 12z starting to “come back” with snow. HI RATIO!

        1. Do ya think. Try just letting the models do what there going to do. Please just let things play out old salty.

        2. And just as I was writing back to OS stating the other models will trend further northwest, wa-la! Case in point.

  51. Am I missing something? Sarcasm? What are you seeing other than what I and many others have been saying all along. Possible a Cape and Islands storm…

  55. Tom suggested yesterday that Nantucket has gotten more snow than Boston this season. Unusual to say the least. Not so much the Cape (there have been seasons that the Cape has outdone Boston), but Nantucket really doesn’t get much snow and I can’t remember it ever exceeding Boston in the snow department. According to several models Nantucket may wind up with some more snow with this next storm and Boston may wind up with very little. Could we see a winter season in which Nantucket outscores Boston in terms of aggregate snowfall? I know it’s very early to say this will happen, but it’s an interesting scenario.

    1. There has been winters where the cape has done better than Boston. If that were to happen it would not be the first time. Not an every winter occurrence but does happen.

      1. Cape yes, as I mentioned in my post. Nantucket I’m not sure. The Cape and Nantucket share very similar weather, but there are some differences. Nantucket tends to be more moderate, both during the summer (cooler) and winter (milder).

    1. If the trend continues over the next several runs of the models he will have to buy into the shift. I can’t say I blame him
      for not buying the shift since its only one run of the model.

  59. Wow, temps not budging much !! Neither is the ocean temp, holding at 44F. The Gulf Stream must be flowing a bit more northerly this year or maybe has more warm eddies closer to the US Coastline than usual.

    1. Look for the ocean temperature to dip a little later this week. There’s always a lag factor. I think if you measured the temp in shallow waters you’d already see a difference between now and a few days ago, but the deeper the water the longer the lag.

  60. If it was the 18z GFS, I wouldn’t buy the shift. And, if the EC holds its ground and trends further east, I wouldn’t buy it either. However, I expect this trend to continue.

  61. Let’s see what the 12Z Euro has. That really should be interesting.
    If it, too, has shifted North, then we are in business. About 2 more hours
    to wait and see. 😀

    1. Correct but if the EC holds or shifts further east then the 12z GFS should be discarded. It could be getting interesting.

      1. And again, it’s a trend that I’m waiting to see. I can’t get TOO excited or disappointed based upon one shift of runs.

    1. Upper level winds appear much more amplified to steer storm up the coast. However, I cannot rely on the JMA. If the EC depicts this in future runs, we’re in trouble.

      1. I understand that. I did say FWIW. 😀
        Still I thought it was interesting to look at.

        Another model suggesting amplification. 😀

  64. Trend is the key the here and hopefully this is the start of a good trend for all us snowlovers. As I said earlier this could be our last chance to see snow this month.

        1. Actually, I like this run of the UKMET. It’s trying to line up with the EC and now the GFS. Models are trying to converge. The EURO will be very important.

  69. With 48 hrs to go before the big event Friday, i think most receive less than an inch them a big warmup to enter feb

    1. Where do you see big warm up? show me something that says big warm. It will get slightly above average for a couple days and then back to below average.

    1. Models are behaving exactly as I expected. I trend closer to the EURO. The GFS was first to do this and now the Canadian. The UKMET trended east but again closer to the EURO. If the EURO holds its ground or shifts futher west, the other models will latch on. Significant snow is still well within reach even if it’s not a blockbuster.

  74. Jeremy Reiner just called for a coating to an inch in Boston for the next storm. I take it he is not buying in to any of the changes.

    1. Or he is clearly not paying attention. OR he is afraid to once again change his mind and be wrong. Snow amounts should never be made by a MET 48-72 hours in advance of a potential storm. It always burns them and they never learn from that.

    2. I don’t know if it’s that. It’s just that the changes still aren’t far enough north. The models have to change significantly, no? Not saying they won’t but it’s still largely OTS at the moment.

      1. one more thing…

        The wounds are still fresh for them from Monday.

        This board has a pretty good handle on this stuff. Frankly, I haven’t watched a weather broadcast in…I can’t remember.

        1. Retrac,

          Respectfully, the GFS and Canadian models have trended MUCH further north. If they were to verify, those models, which were calling for 0-1 inches as of early this morning, would result in 3-6 inches Boston south.

      1. Come June there will be a three or four day heat wave on the way and Charlie will be calling for cold, drizzle and and NE wind….it’s his nature 🙂

  76. I think that everyone has the right to their opinion whether it is right or wrong. This is a discussion forum. Lets just chill and watch the weather. I’m making a nice beef stew on a coooooooooooold winter day. ENJOY!

      1. I really enjoy this blog. The knowledge base of this group of folks is amazing. Plus, I think you guys are a riot. Love the banter between everyone.

  77. As I had been saying last night, I am very much in the camp that this is a snow producer for SNE and expect the models to start a trend back closer to the coast today which it appears we are already seeing. How far remains to be seen but with the better sampling coming in, today will paint a clearer picture on this storm. Not so much the 12z runs, but more the 0z runs tonight.

    I have been very skeptical of the model output thus far as they have not been initializing with good data. The placement and strength of the shortwaves has been inconsistent as well and the American models seem to be underestimating the strength of the persistent high in the N Atlantic. The flat solutions of the NAM and GFS just aren’t going to happen. There will be some amplification and there will be a turn closer to the coast. We have seen this happen all winter. The question is how much. Still feel SNE is very much in the game for widespread 6″+. I’m with you on this one Arod.

  78. Would whoever is the Mark who responded to Lisa’s post above please modify your user name or add an initial at the end to differentiate between us? Thanks!

  79. Jeremy Reiner actually just showed a snowfall.map. He is calling for a coating to 2 inches in Boston. He is calling for 2 to 4 on the Cape. Nothing north of Boston. I am very surprised he would put out a map this soon.

      1. Haterain. Looks like JJ doubled his amounts because he forecasted 0-1 in Boston this morning, lol. He’s inching back up. Especially when models are in a transition and trying to converge, forecasting snow amounts on the air is plain silly.

  80. I screwed up above I meant to say cold for the next 4-5 days then I believe a rain event for mid week next week with temps in the 40’s

  83. Brief two day warm up next Tuesday/Wed with a storm passing to our west bringing some rain showers. However, watch for some coastal development along the trailing cold front which may stall out along the eastern seaboard in its wake, creating a possible snow threat in the 2/1-2/2 time frame. Long way off but something to watch.

    1. It may be a long way off but surely possible. I forecasted possible snow events for this week over three weeks ago and my forecast almost verified. Perhaps Friday will be different and I believe it will.

  88. Hadi. Can you post the 12z EURO showing precip and precip totals like OS does? That would be more helpful. The storm doesn’t look too far off.

  89. That still throws back at least a few inches of snow in eastern mass. Difficult to tell from that map.

    1. How can you tell from that link you displayed? Hmmmmmmm. The EC is trending east and the other models are trending west? Something is up.

      1. Someone on Accuweather can post the percip totals bc they have accuweather pro which gives you precip amounts

    1. The JMA goes from a blockbuster to OTS in one run. That’s how I feel about the JMA. Clearly this storm is trending further east but let’s give it one more run.

  96. It says about an inch in Boston,, 2 inches in Providence,, 3 inches on the cape and nothing from 128 north, a coating west of Boston, I think this is right unfortunately

  97. With 15:1 ratios, we could squeeze out a bit more than that. I’ll take 2-4 inches. It’s better than nothing!

    1. I think alot of models r on to a general coating to 4 inches, a sharp cutoff going north and west of boston

  98. I think we have a consensus, I’m not sure we get a sizable (3+) event before mid Feb, I’m just saying, stay warm, this bitterly cold crap with no snow to look at is for the birds, not a fan of 10 degrees and bare ground

    2. Not a total miss, but not better than the 0Z was. This is an inch or 2 at best,
      even with high ratios.

      So now what? Wait for the 0Z, I guess is all.

      😀

      1. Looks like that’s all we can do. It appears the models have converged on a glancing blow. Now we just need models to begin it’s northwestward trend overnight and tomorrow. Let’s hope!

  101. my agh meter is up to 7 now we got the cold but storms staying further south until a storm moves to our west to give us rain showers. 🙁

  102. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB

    Friday Night snow threat update: Best chance of enough snow to shovel and possibly plow: Cape Cod and The Islands

  103. storm further out to sea.
    snow accumulations 1-3 inches. coastal ct,rd south coast of mass ,cape and islands.

      1. I did and still can’t open them. Looks like you used comcast. When you post the model runs using instantweathermaps.com, I am able to open the link. Can you post the 12Z EURO using instantweathermaps rather than home.comcast.net?

        1. I can, but you won’t see much AND I can’t get the smaller
          hourly increments. Only 48, 72 and 96. Shall I do so?

          😀

        1. Well, that sucks. Makes no sense to me. Your employer blocking Comcast???

          Sorry. Wish I could help.

              1. With Instant weather maps,
                that all you’re going to see.
                Can post 850MB and 500MB geopotential heights. That’s it.

                No snowmaps like GFS and NAM.
                No precipitation maps.

                Sorry

  106. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB

    As of now, Fri. Nt. snow threat looks similar to what happened this past Mon. Night..3-6 on Cape Cod, 0-2 N&W of BOS

    1. I’ll take a couple of inches but if it’s going to be less than that, it might as well go OTS. Frigid air and a coating of snow is frustrating.

      1. U can say that again, and not to be the bad man this may be the last snow event for a little while will c

  107. It wants to snow where it has been snowing, it gets locked into a pattern like that.

    Wonder what Matt N is thinking?

  109. I believe this was the forecast for this winter, storms just to our south. But these storm have been and south and east.

    1. This is the one i was talking about for end of next week. Coastal storm develops off of a stalled out cold front behind the warmer midweek storm which passes to our west. Something to watch.

      1. No. This is just a page of really cool weather links. Sorry you can’t open them. Check them out at home. It’s worth it. 😀

    2. I’d throw in the towel if we wake up in the morning and models are still locked in on this solution. There is not one model available to us predicting a hit for Fri-Sat. That has be concerned especially since the EURO trended east. The EC, UKMET, UKIE, NAM, GFS, Canadian and even the JMA all depict a glancing blow. Even though many of these models trended further north on that last run, to note, the EC trended east and now all solutions have converged unfavorably. That has me concerned but I’m willing to give it another 18 hours as the shortwave comes ashore the Pacific Northwest.

      1. I may be mistaken, but I am quite certain that UKIE is the
        name coined by Hadi for the UKMET. To my knowledge they
        are not 2 separate models.

        Hadi, is this correct? 😀

            1. Hadi’s face has eyebrows while OS’s face does not, but OS’s face has more teeth showing. How?!

    1. Yes, I think so. That’s why I posted it. I thought that we all could use at least some of it. I was pleased. 😀

  116. Ugh….I am so tired of waking up excited about a possible snow event only to be disappointed as soon as I log on here to see it has gone poof again. Maybe if I don’t check the blog every 10 minutes something will change. 🙂 However, you all bring me such enjoyment that I can’t stay away.

    1. Unpredictability, anticipation, learning and fun all are what makes meteorology so fun, and the people on this blog add to the positive experience.

      1. Without a doubt arod. My husband thinks I am a bit whacked with how obsessed I am with learning about weather and constant references to “my weather friends” from this blog.

        1. We need to find something that our significant others can blog about……….I think there are several who just don’t get the weather obsession 😉

          1. So true Vicki. I tell my husband we are going to get snow and he says “says who?” I tell him my weather friends and he looks at me like I have 8 heads. 🙂

            1. You are one step ahead of me. My entire family turns and runs when I start to mention storms. Hmmmmm. Maybe you are behind me since I’ve reached that point and you may reach it soon.

              The other day my grandson ran to the window and saw the snow and asked me to tell TK. A bit scary I’d say 😉

  117. I wish I could be excited about those other 2 threats but I just can’t be. I think it is going to be one of those years. We have to hope for some squalls when cold air comes in or some overrunning when warm air comes in, but that hasn’t even been happening.

    1. Ahhhh. That is called warm air advection. Much of the snow that fell two nights ago was from this warm air advection that you describe, haterain.

  118. It’s all so frustrating!! But that’s the joy in learning, I am so much more knowledgeable.

    I really meant it that we should meet for cocktail at some point. I really fell as if we are friends.

    1. we’re just locked into an unfavorable pattern Hadi. It’s the cruel reality of it all.
      I’m a big believer in go with the pattern when in doubt until a change punches you in the face a couple of times.

      props to TK with his “cold and dry and kiss ’em goodbye” call for the winter.

      I do believe he said both he and B.B. spoke and thought best chance might come late winter. I’m sure he’ll correct if I’m mis quoting.

      Misery loves company in the meantime!

    1. Just got out of a very boring meeting. Got the contract though. Ho hum still since I’m freezing cold and I hate the cold if it’s not going to snow.

  124. The 12z Euro is really not a whole lot different than yesterday’s Oz and 12z runs. A tad east but for all intents and purposes, it is consistent. More sampling and better initialization will occur with the runs tonight now that the s/w is on shore. If some trending doesn’t occur tonight, then it is likely another Cape and Islands special. Definitely too soon to throw in the towel – we are talking only a 50-75 mile shift in the storm track needed to bring the 3-6″ band into the Boston/Providence corridor and a shift like that is still very much in play given we are nearly 3 days out.

  126. WBZ Boston Weather ‏@wbzweather

    The track for Fri night & Sat AM storm has come back north a bit…most likely a few fluffy inches for SE MA and coatings up to Boston.

  127. TK was very right about one thing. It is a dry winter. Actually, it’s exceptionally dry. On my Esplanade jogs in the morning I can tell how dry’s been by seeing the water level on the banks of the Charles (very low). And the dryness applies right across most of our nation. Even with some of the winter storms that have come through the Midwest and Northeast, the QPF has been paltry. What I’m especially concerned about is the continued drought in our bread basket. It’s bad for farmers, bad for our economy (we export more wheat and other grains than any other nation, by a wide margin), and bad for our household budgets (prices of groceries will soar this year if the drought continues). The cold of course is not an issue. so, the fact that it’s below zero in Iowa and Minnesota doesn’t matter for the crops. But, because of a meager snow cover, and in parts of the Midwest no snow cover the earth dries out faster and will need serious irrigation come springtime.

    1. It’s hard to be wrong when on one hand you forecast a cold, dry perior and then on the other hand you call for the potential for snow 😀

  130. My only hope is the models have been flip flopping so much this year that what are the chances what they are saying right now is going to verify. Is there one more surprise?

    1. I’d like to see what that would look like on the satellite. Think the GFS would pick you up on the model…:)

    1. I’ll give him “consistent” with the past two runs but it didn’t look any closer to me. Still, it’s close enough that a small change in track will make a big difference.

      1. He is referring to the Canadian and GFS models. They indeed were quite a bit further north. However, he seems to be discounting the EC which has further trended east.

        Imagine if the GFS is even further north on the next run while the EC is further east. That would be a complete flop in the models. Then what???

  140. Still OTS but much better than 12Z run. The southern wave has more energy and more digging. Slow progress for sure.

  141. 18z still out to sea but an improvement. definitely some room and time to trend closer with the 0z run, which will have much better data.

  144. Agree. 18Z NAM better. And remember, it is the 18Z run.
    See what the 0Z runs have to say.

    Getting close, so there may be hope.

    But not matter what, the weather will do what it wants and not what we want.

  145. Imagine if the GFS is even further north on the next run while the EC is further east. That would be a complete flop in the models. It’d be amusing if the GFS calls for a hit and the EURO forecasts OTS. I can see that. We’ve seen it before. Then what???

        1. You would have to visit one of two of my urgent care facilities for that. But, you’d have to share 😀

      2. Not wise, you’ll drop dead in the waiting area while arod is tweeting with Matt Noyes in the room with the soiled linens…

          1. I don’t work for a hospital. I own two urgent care facilities:) So hack the hospital all you want just as long as you stay clear from my place 😀

  146. Good afternoon all!

    Saw only one car battery a victim of cold in my travels today. This is the type of weather that lets you know if you have to replace it….. But anyway somebody was helping the lady right away so that was good.

    I’ll be looking things over in between listening to some cold weather music and making dinner and will update the blog this evening. Right now my inkling is to go for a light to moderate snowfall Friday night & Saturday morning. That system may not be tapping a whole lot of moisture from the south but it may pack a punch in the upper levels (moreso than I thought earlier). I’ll analyze a bit more.

    In the mean time, a carbon copy of today coming up tomorrow. Clouds roll in Friday and what starts as a sunny day probably ends with a slate grey overcast ahead of the snow (my favorite winter sky btw other than twilight after sunset). Then whatever happens with the storm. Cold & bright Sunday.

    Milder Monday-Thursday next week for the last 4 days of January (mini thaw). No huge warm-ups though. And probably not a lot of precip when we get ready to get back to some cold not long after that.

    I’ve seen some long range hints of a snow threat around Groundhog Day. More on this later…

      1. We’re texting. And he keeps sending me the same text over and over…

        It’s a line from “I Got You Babe” by Sonny & Cher….

    2. The storm digs enough to the south before hitting the ocean. It will have two sources of juice: the gulf and the atlantic. How is it that you think it wouldn’t tap enough moisture? Perhaps it’s the speed of the disturbance. My concern is more the track of the storm. Thanks for your thoughts TK.

      2. I agree. The main concern: Is there enough amplification
        to bring it on up the coast? Or does it mostly slide out to
        the South and East?

        1. Definitely. Storm will be plenty juicy but where does it land? I think what TK is alluding to is if the storm remains progressive and flat, it won’t get too juicy until it’s well out over the ocean. However, when a storm amplifies, it stays over the atlantic longer prior to reaching SNE giving it more time to gather atlantic moisture.

    3. Thanks TK. I was noting that 2/2 threat earlier. Stalled front sets up right along the eastern seaboard after the midweek storm passes to our west and the cold air returns. Could be a very interesting setup.

      1. I have a funny feeling we’re going to get a very large snowstorm sometime in Feb or early March. By very large I mean 15+ inches, like widespread.

      2. That’s actually quite a scary set up because with a stalled front, one thing is for sure: whatever does develop will not move out very quickly. Could be a long duration event. But we all know that never happens here.

        1. Arod, it looks to move fairly progressively on the GFS but with the front draping all the way down to the Gulf, the developing storm is really juicy, picking up a lot of moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic. That’s one that could dump a lot of snow in a short period of time if it was a direct hit.

  147. Great to read all the posts to stay up-to-date, as I await parent-teacher conferences to begin at 6pm. As I look out the room’s window, I can see the sun still a bit above the horizon at 4:27pm. Its a nice change from the very early 4:10pm sunsets.

    Keeping my expectations extremely low for Friday-early Saturday. It really has helped to keep my frustration level down. Heck, we got an inch and a half the other night and I was thrilled.

    1. Good luck with those. My daughter is a Foreign Language teacher
      at Medfield High School. Those parents can be rough on teachers. 😀 😀

      1. Well that sucks. I have no clue WHY the links won’t take.
        BUT, copy and paste into a new browser.

        1. It’s really a nice map. Has system pretty much where
          Euro has it. I wonder how accurate this model is?

          I also wonder IF this was the very model Matt Noyes
          was viewing last night????

            1. Wasn’t impressed with that map. It’s hard pressed to give southeast mass an inch of snow and it looks further out than the EC.

              1. You mean you were able to open it?? 😀

                The map I showed was for 6 hour precip total. If you chose a total precip, it gives Boston .10 to .25, add in the fluff and you get what you want. South Shore to Cap,
                .25 to .5.

                Still looks as good or better than Euro to me.

            2. I mean it has a nice presentation. I didn’t mean that the depicted solution was nice.
              You’re tough today. 😀

              I really like this map’s presentation over all of the other ones. All of them. Curious to see what others think.

              Again, I have no idea of its reliability.

              2. You’re right! Another 75 miles northwest, and we get in on 1 inch of liquid. Won’t take much of a shift and I’m banking on it.

  149. Planning on issuing an update to the long range forecast, or a remainder-of-winter forecast, by early next week. I’m going to attempt to speak to Barry first, because I’d like his thoughts as well.

          1. I’m Trying, but the models aren’t cooperating.
            Hey, we have to get it in increments. Look
            What Alisonarod posted comparing 06Z, 12Z and 18Z. A very nice trend towards the North. 😀

  152. That’s another big difference from the 6z and 12z runs:

    6z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013012306&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=075

    12z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013012312&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=072

    18z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013012318&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=063

    Wow! It is the 18z but the GFS is trending exactly as I thought it would. It would surprise me if the EC continued to trend east. That will be an important run and especially tomorrow morning.

    1. Region wide 3-6 inches of snow from 495, south and east. Huge change from this morning where it was predicting 0-1 inch at best. That EURO/GFS blend that I was calling yesterday may occur. Let’s see what the EURO says. Does that come out around 8pm OS?

      1. No, 0Z Euro won’t be available until about 1AM.

        Remember it is initialized and commences running at 7PM.
        The Euro probably does the most number crunching of all of them
        and takes quite awhile to run. That’s why it is usually more reliable. TK can speak of its algorithms, but clearly they are
        superior.

  153. On the last storm (with the norlun trough), the winds never really got to be north or northeast. They were calm during the initial precip over southeast New England and then became northwest.

    Even though Friday’s storm is headed fairly far south (currently), will the winds come around for any time during the event to north or north-northeast. Might this be a better chance at a little enhancement for areas just south of Boston. I see Friday’s highs are only projected to be around 20F.

  156. latest from NWS:

    STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK JUST OUTSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK LAT FRI/EARLY SAT TIMEFRAME. BEST LIFT AND RESULTING SNOW GROWTH LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. WAITING ON NEXT MODEL SUITE AS WE CAN’T YET DETERMINE THE IMPACT OF HADI’S FAN AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FINAL TRACK. WILL LEAVE FOR NEXT SHIFT TO SORT OUT.

    …….SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME

  157. Te probability of 12 inches of snow has made an appearance on the NWS snowfall map page. It is only a few percent but it wasn’t there this morning. I don’t think we get a foot, but I also don’t think just an inch is coming to SE Mass either.

    1. I’m still in the camp of 6+ from Boston south but not ready to put numbers on it yet until tomorrow afternoon/evening at the earliest–that is if it isn’t progged to go OTS by then.

  158. Ok we are pulling Hadi back on board, Charlie is still overboard and we are trying to him back in the boat! Arod has been steadily steering the boat and OS has been on the lookout post.

    1. Its the 18z GFS, so I cant even see the boat yet. Maybe its that tiny object on the horizon.

      Will check in later, have a good evening all !

    1. Seems like WHDH is already increasing their snow amounts. Once the trend begins and snow amounts increase, it typically continues to do so. Once again, the next EURO run will be very important. It may have exaggerated it’s eastward shift earlier this afternoon. Let’s see if it bends back a bit.

  161. Concerning the Friday storm: my sister is thinking of driving up from Long Island, NY. She would do the Port Jeff ferry to Bridgeport and then 95 up to Boston; leaving NY around noon. Is it likely that she’d be driving in the snow?

    1. Probably not Deb. Snow looks to commence overnight on Friday with the steadiest precip falling after midnight Sat. morning.

      1. Thanks–she called and said she wouldn’t come up if it was going to be a difficult drive; but if she’d be here all nice and cozy before the snow, she would come. So, I’ll tell her to keep her fingers crossed. But, of course, she’ll be checking the forecast before she leaves.

  162. Matt N tweet

    @MattNoyesNECN: Technical: Keep in mind every storm this season has come off strengthening quickly, snow expanding north, may get meatier

    1. That’s what many of us have been keeping in mind which is why the model runs from this morning did not intimidate me.

      1. We are clearly seeing a trend with the GFS. There is no doubt about it. What will the EURO demonstrate?

        1. I think what this euro run does will tell it all and I think it will say close to what it had on the 18z

  163. PB out of WHDH

    1-3″ Boston north, west and southwest

    3-5″ Brockton south and east.

    That certainly is creeping north and he’s definitely not going to go for the bait after blowing another forecast with our last event.

  164. best chance of accumulation snow south of the pike. im just not thinking this storm will be big or even moderate. maybe for the outer cape and nantucket pulls a moderate snowfall but thats it. every else much less.

  165. 3-6 outer cape and islands
    1-3 rd and ct southern bristol and plymouth counties and the cape
    less than 1 inch else where
    possible dustings north of the pike scattered snow showers mainly near the pike to boston

    1. i think sometime after 8pm but before 10 some where in between there i think but im not sure, i could be wrong

    2. OS would know that. He knows when the maps come out. Later tonight around 11 pm would be my guess. However, the canadian models should be out soon and they too have trended north since last evening.

  168. I have to admit that I was wrong about the cold not lasting more than a day. It is here now and I feel it!

    1. Everyone was making fun of me today because all I wore was a sweatshirt. But my SIL was just outside skating on the ice rink he set up in shorts and a t shirt. That’s extreme even for me

      1. no worries i were a sweatshirt today around campus because i did not want to carry my ski coat with me every where.and i did not want to loose it if i put it down some where

  169. Hadi had NAM and GFS right on the money.

    Euro 0Z about 1:30AM
    Canadian (regular out to 48 hours) 11:30-Mid
    Canadian (Global 240 hours) Mid or shortly thereafter
    Ukmet Mid or shortly thereafter

    There is no 18Z Euro, Canadian or Ukmet. Only 12Z and 0Z

    0Z JMA available about 2AM or so.
    0Z Nogaps about the same, 2AM or so.

    The only 06Z and 18Z runs are GFS and NAM

    Happy model watching one and all.

        1. Perhaps it will:) I’m still very hopeful that we see a significant snowfall. At least 6+. If the runs tomorrow still show a glancing blow or OTS, stick a fork in it. But still plenty of time and wiggle room for there to be a 75-100 mile error in the models when a storm is over the pacific northwest–many thousands of miles away!

            1. Haha. Very true. Although how many times have we seen all model solutions take a storm out to sea and then trend the storm closer and closer and to the point where a rain/snow line must be accounted for? I’ve seen that a ton while living here. I ask myself, “how does a storm go from OTS to snow changing to rain?” It baffles me.

              Given the strong polar vortex, I hardly believe that is in the cards, but nothing suprises me anymore.

              If we wake up tomorrow and they predict a western solution that changes snow to rain or if they forecast a blockbuster or a storm that goes OTS, none of the solutions would ‘shock’ me.

  172. If you look at any of the latest computer runs, you will see another storm coming ashore in the Pacific Northwest. I wonder if that will be our next player and will it assume a similar path in early February?

  174. Old Salty is so reliable posting the models, that the NWS is thinking of giving him special access to their computers so he can hit the start button on each run. 😉

    2. That would be an honor for him or any of us. Even to just have a fake button to push, even though it is not started by one.

    3. He just needs to give these storm’s a chance LOL. Tk my guess may hold for six inches in Boston. Weekend storm, turning out to be a good week for the wallet. Never know that above for snow prediction is still on the table.

  175. Very true retrac. I can’t wait. I hope we won’t be dissappointed. I’m signing off. Nite all!

  176. Matt Noyes sticking with projection of a benchmark storm but fast moving 6-8 and some places close to 10 and snow extending into Maine and vt.

        1. Not on the boat no I’ve always thought we would get something but not alot,, I’m thinking 2-4,3-5 inches mainly south of Boston but if your north and west of boston u get little snow, not a big event

  178. I am certain one of these storms in the next 6 weeks will be a beast. We have been very close that no question one gets its act together and gives a big one.

  182. My advice…you all seem to “want” a certain situation to happen when looking at the models. Earlier, the GFS was going OTS everyone laughed at it…now that’s it’s showing a more northerly track everyone believes it??? This is why some people on here cite the constant model watching…as for me, I’m sticking to my guns…BUST. OS, you with me or are you going to back out again? 🙂

    1. Hey. I’m thrown off the boat and the island. I need a life jacket. I want to get back in the island with you guys who say bust. Remember I bring food and beverage. Hmmmmm did that sound a bit like a bribe.

    2. I’m not sure its a bust. Tonight’s run should be more telling. But for the umpteen time the models keep doing this. They show a miss and than come back with it.

  184. Guidance in this situation is so important. I do look at many others things that I don’t post about that I have learnt over the years. Unfortunately guidance leads us to certain conclusions.

  186. I just can’t imagine Matt Noyes going out as hard as he is unless he is really confidant.

    Nam is running so lets see what happens.

  188. It’s fine to compare things to what happened in the last storm, as long as you remember that every situation is different. 😉

    1. Fine with me. Not a Duke fan. Actually, I’m not really a college BB fan, so it doesn’t matter that much. 😉

      Though I must admit I do get into the tournament and the whole March Madness thing a little bit. 🙂

      1. Ah thanks for reminding me…I don’t get into March Madness but the office gets crazy during that time.

      1. That shortwave has been expected to take that track for a few days. It’s a strong shortwave too, going to ignite quite a storm over the sea.

  192. Interesting seeing the flood watch up for parts of northern Vermont due to ice jams quickly forming on the rivers.

      1. After rereading the advisory, its for all of Vermont. I think its more precautionary to be aware. I seem to remember while at Lyndon seeing Montpelier have serious flooding from ice jams. There’s no real warning time and the water behind the jam can rise so quickly.

  195. 99 panels of NAM to go, 99 panels of the NAM…. if one of those panels would ever come, 98 panels of the NAM yet to come.

    So SLOW !!

  196. I dont think there’s going to be much change, because at hr 33, the northern clipper/disturbance is over International Falls, MN and I remember typing that for last night’s 0z run….. The west coast activity looks similar, lots looking similar…….

  199. It doesn’t look too different from 18z so far.

    At this rate, this GFS will start running before the NAM is done!

  203. It’s called Charlies crystal ball.

    I will say it is looking more amplified now, perhaps even more digging than the 18z. Should make the turn sooner.

  210. I’m just looking at the map with the precip and 1,000-500 mb Thicknesses. East of the system, the thicknesses run out due east, as opposed to running more southwest to northeast………and west of the system, there’s no plunge of the lower thicknesses southward. By the thicknesses, just seems rather flat.

  211. Looks juicier than 18z, trough is better, a bit further north. I don’t think a direct hit but a continued trend in the right direction.

  214. The latest 8-14 day CPC outlook has the most beautiful combo I have seen in two years…below normal temps AND above normal precip. Keeping my fingers crossed it continues in the coming days…and to eventually verify! 😀

    TK, do you concur with the CPC on this so far?

  221. I would respectfully submit that there will be no change coming tomorrow….

    Why, because the ridging needed over the Atlantic has been absolutely pummeled. There’s nothing out there to hold the track closer to the coast and I dont see why any shape or form of the southeast ridge is likely to develop out there by Friday.

    The depressing part is that it does reassert itself a bit next week to give a brief break in the cold along with an inside runner. But, I’m afraid it wont be there to help this storm nudge ny closer to the coast.

  223. two nice storms back to back on that run zip, zip right off hatteras and bye bye. what a damn shame.

    GFS will probably look similar. And the King….we’ll see

  225. I’ve gotta say that was a huge improvement with the NAM over where it was this AM and last night this time. 8 more runs to go – still time to continue the NW trend.

  226. If the NAM has a clue, then expectations of anything more than an inch……..except maybe 2, tops 3 on Nantucket……….are setting themselves up for disappointment, in my opinion……………..And most of the region may just end up cloudy for a while.

  228. Good luck with the 0z GFS !!! Hope it shows improvement !!! Look forward to seeing it and everyones thoughts about it in the morning.

  230. I’m not buying the NAM verbatim Tom but earlier it had one of the flattest solutions out of any of the models and now it has made a significant adjustment to a more amplified solution and closer to the coast. If other models are making similar adjustments based on the new sampling data, then we might expect them to do the same thing, and they were already closer and more amplified than the NAM to begin with.

  235. Matt Noyes showed his hour by hour map showing the storm going out to sea. He did say he is going to go put on a limb though and the way that the pattern has been going he wouldn’t be surprised with some places in SE New England to get 5 or 6 inches out of it and that it wont go out to sea like some models are showing. He did say no one will get a blockbuster though.

  237. From NEWW:

    New England Weather Works
    3 hours ago
    FOLLOW UP TO LAST POST
    Here is a follow up to the last post we just made, the image is the 500 MB package from the GFS, We put last evenings run up against the latest run, look at the flow, last evening the GFS showed much less ridging in the west allowing a much flatter flow in the east, This is not conducive for a major coastal storm on the east coast.

    Now please look at the latest Image on the right, seems after the NOAA sampling flight has been digested into the GFS Operational, it’s now showing more Ridging in the west, if you look at the east you can see the result is turning the flow more out of the south than the west, We colored the flow lines in red on both images with arrows showing you the change from a flat west flow out to sea solution to a more Amplified south flow or backing of the flow closer storm solution.

    End result, if this trend continues the storm will be much closer to the coas

    http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc6/252742_518744181481730_200766211_n.png

    http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/321312_518773041478844_882497929_n.png

      2. They are right, you could clearly see the difference on the NAM run as well – more ridging in the west and more of a trough in the east. The question is, is it enough to bring the storm close enough for a decent snowfall anywhere besides the cape?

  239. North, definitely sounds like Matt Noyes is backing off. Not that anyone ever expected a blockbuster, but he had 5-6″ accumulations across interior SNE before. Now he is confining it to the cape.

    1. He didn’t show a snowfall map though. Will be interesting to see if he or Danielle show one tomorrow. He is king on the fact that most storms have trended closer and stronger which is definitely what we have seen.

      1. King says: GBAGL

        That is Good-Bye and Good Luck.

        😀 😀 😀

        This on again off again stuff is going to drive me nuts!
        Oh wait, I’m already there! 😀

  246. Oh well, wasnt meant to be. On another note, where is everyone who said it wont be as cold as forecasts were indicating? It is silly cold out there tonight. Im down to 8 😮

  247. 1 degree at my house and heading below 0 for sure.

    We’ll see what the 0z Euro has to say. If it doesn’t come closer, then its cold and dry, kiss em goodbye. Just looks like this thing is booking too fast and can’t get going in time. Not having the negative NAO hurts.

  248. It’s pleasant 3 degrees in methuen… I actually had a bus driver try to have one of my track kids walk over a mile home, because “he wanted to see the news” I explained to him the poor kid wearing a track tank top no less, would have a good shot of being dead if he did this and a few other “choice” words. He like my idea a lot better 🙂

  249. sticking basically with what i was thinking but the 1-3 area a little larger. 3-6 inches outer cape and nantucket with the most on nantucket.
    1-3 inches, ct ,rd and plymouth and bristol counties( orignally just southern sectons of these counties.
    less than 1 inch else where.
    nothing northern and western mass.

  250. 2 degrees dropped 10 degrees the last hour. im expecting it to fall even more. could easily see the area below zero tonight

  251. Geeeez what ever does fall will be melted by a rainstorm next week that could drop an inch of rain Wedish,, I think from Quincy to Providence southward and eastward will receive 3-5 inches, around the Pike 1-3, and around rt 2 dusting to 1 inch

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