Sunday February 19 2023 Forecast (7:05AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

In the next 5 days we transition out of the pattern we’ve been in much of the winter. The La Nina driven ridge of high pressure in the US Southeast, while not vanishing, weakens and flattens and allows colder air to the west and north to expand a little further east and south in the next 5 days (and beyond). For this forecast period, it means unsettled weather as we will be in a battle zone between the warmer and colder air. A few weather systems come by our region during this time. Today, while we have a mid and upper level system bringing its moisture through our region in the form of clouds, it will stay rain-free, but also warm up over yesterday’s temperatures as we get a strengthening southerly air flow. Tonight and early Monday, a disturbance will arrive and kick off some wet weather over Cape Cod and the Isands, and maybe briefly in to RI and southeastern MA around dawn Monday, but then this system will be kicked eastward by an approaching trough and cold front from the west. This may bring a rain shower to portions of the region in the afternoon and evening before it moves offshore and is followed by a small ridge of high pressure with a dry start to Tuesday. I was more optimistic about this day’s forecast previously, but not so much now as it’s evident that the next disturbance will be moving in quickly, and we see a quick return of clouds and then some rainfall with a warm front / cold front combo moving through. As this system exits Tuesday evening, it may end as snow with small accumulation potentially for northern MA and southern NH. Tired yet? Well the weather isn’t going to be as yet another, slightly larger scale trough and low pressure area moves in for midweek, probably starting as rain but may evolve into a mix/snow situation before it’s done with us – details to be worked out.

TODAY: Early sun mainly eastern areas, otherwise mostly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind S up to 10 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain likely overnight Islands / Cape Cod, and brief pre-dawn rain possible RI to MA South Shore. Lows 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers mid to late afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain shower evening. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Early sun, then clouds return. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early becoming variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain ending, possibly as a period of snow in northern MA and southern NH with some minor accumulation possible. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then clouds return. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind variable becoming E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT & THURSDAY: Overcast with periods of rain with a possible trend to freezing rain, sleet, and snow from north to south. Temperatures starting 38-45 then gradually falling. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, becoming mostly NE to N.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

An unsettled and somewhat colder pattern appears likely for the the final days of February. Main storm threat exists around the February 25-26 weekend based on current timing of features – likely including frozen precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)

Similar pattern into the early days of March, unsettled, colder with some wintry precipitation opportunities.

57 thoughts on “Sunday February 19 2023 Forecast (7:05AM)”

    1. Saw it. We had a color shift from horizon yellow to orange to red to purple going up. Pastel shades. 🙂

    1. Enjoy ! 79F with 68F dew point in FortLauderdale.

      I am not looking forward to colder weather when we get back.

      I guess I’ll have to wait til July to get 4days of this at home. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  13. Haven’t been been paying close attention…are we on pace for a record-breaking warm February? Can’t imagine we aren’t…

    2. Without looking it up I can tell you we are definitely not. I can tell you that Boston is running behind the mild February of 1981, which was also not the warmest, but very mild.

      We’re in the top five for warmest meteorological winter but it’s not very often that you have all three of those months so persistently mild (or cold either, with respect to normal). You can thank 3rd year La Niña for that and our good old friend the southeast ridge. As I have mentioned, a very stable pattern in the hemisphere this particular winter.

      I believe Boston is running around a +4 for this month and I think February 1981 was closer to a +5.

      While they stay above normal through early this week we are going to see much more seasonably chilly weather there after so we won’t really be doing much more to advance our place on the list for meteorological winter and certainly not for this month…

  14. Thank you, TK.

    So, according to USA Today readers, Boston has one of the 10 best `riverwalks.’ https://www.boston.com/travel/local-news/2023/02/17/boston-has-one-of-the-10-best-riverwalks-in-america/?p1=hp_featurebox

    The Charles River Esplanade Park and the elongated green section across the river (in Cambridge) with a similar structure and set of amenities, is MUCH more than a riverwalk. You can walk, run, bike, skateboard, row, canoe, and even swim (albeit very restricted). It’s also a place to fish, lie in a hammock, sunbathe on the docks, sail you model boat, do group yoga, play frisbee, soccer, baseball, softball, and volleyball. There are at least a half dozen children’s playgrounds, an open air theater for concerts and movies, and a beer garden.

    Well, I’m biased, but I think there is no better city `riverwalk’ in America. And, since I’ve traveled quite a bit in Europe and lived there, too, it’s safe to say Boston’s `riverwalk’ is right up there with the best Europe has to offer. I actually think it’s better than the European ones because it’s greener, that is, there is more grass and there are more trees, and less concrete and asfalt.

    1. And, I forgot to mention, the views of Boston from the Cambridge are nothing short of spectacular. Several of the bridges themselves, including the graceful, magnificent Longfellow Bridge, are historic gems. The Longfellow ranks right up there with some of the most historic and majestic 19th/early 20th century bridges of Europe. What makes it stand out is that it carries ALL forms of traffic, from pedestrians to cyclists, to mopeds and motorcycles, to cars, trucks, and trains.

    2. As a teen, several friends and I would walk from Belmont to the Charles river and then along the river frequently. …..always listening to WMEX on our transistor radio.

      On our wedding night, Mac and I watched the Thunder Snow over the Charles from our window in the Hyatt Cambridge

      Boston is truly a beautiful city.

  15. You know it’s been a mild winter when a day (yesterday) in the upper 30s to around 40F is considered cold. The expression “everything is relative” is apt in this regard. In mid February of 2011 or 2015, a day in the upper 30s would have been considered quite mild.

    My guess is that this winter will wind up at the 3rd spot in terms of the mildness ranking.

    The historical data – systematically collected, that is – in the Netherlands go back much further than ours (to the early 1700s). It’s estimated at this point that this `winter’ in the low countries will be one of the three mildest on record, and could easily reach number 1.

    The other day I watched a series of interviews with (mostly older) farmers in the Netherlands and they all said they had never experienced a milder winter.

  16. NAM is a touch faster on its 12z run with the Tuesday system (you know, the low pressure system coming on a day I figured we’d be dominated by high pressure just yesterday – haha).

    We’ll have to monitor that. It’s going to be a potent little system, but only around for a short while. I think coming during the day in a set-up lacking antecedent cold, our snowfall would be limited after starting as mix/rain. Probably wet pavements, limited accumulation of 1 inch or less on unpaved surfaces inside 495, and 1-3 inches outside of 495 especially from I-90 northward. I technically could have / should have put this in the actual blog post, but here it is, and I’ll have an updated call on this with tomorrow morning’s post.

  17. Legendary WBZ-TV news reporter Bill Shields died on Friday night at age 70. He was battling cancer.

    He grew up in Texas. From what I could tell, he certainly didn’t have any kind of “southern drawl” or anything. He started at the station in 1980.

    1. I read that on Twitter last night. Sad news. 🙁
      I knew Bill was battling and was hoping the best for him. It’s such an unforgiving disease. I admired Bill’s work in the Boston TV market. RIP Bill.

  18. Op runs for Canadian & US models support the forecast pattern change going forward. I expect the Euro model to do the same. Haven’t had a chance to scrutinize the ensembles but I will try to do that a bit later. Hospital visit coming up soon.

      1. It’s very slow, as expected, but at least there has been some progress. His progress, even slow, is faster than the people we are waiting for to get him into rehab. This entire situation is just driving home (once again) how broken our medical care system is, from a red tape standpoint. The care itself is excellent. It’s the “paperwork” that’s the pain in the ass. This needs fixing – big time.

        1. Wonderful that your brother is improving. And my heart goes out to you all for the inadequacy of our system.

          My daughter can’t stand for long without getting horribly dizzy. After five days her ins co approved a CAT scan ordered by her PCP for this Monday at the latest. She has a scheduled scan on March 14.

          Horrifically, we are not alone. So many people are struggling with the same frustration. And frankly it borders on malpractice

          1. It’s so unfortunate that in this time and place with so much tech & medical advancement that we have so many people who can’t run the system well enough to allow these wonderful professionals to do their jobs and help people more efficiently.

            My best wishes for your daughter. Continued good thoughts and prayers. I really hope they can get to the bottom of this and treat it.

            1. It truly is sad. Your brother also remains in my prayers. I also asked for continued prayers for him and your family in church last week.

              1. Vicki, I hope she gets some answers soon. The fact that we have to wait 10 days plus now to get approved for MRI’s and CT scans is crazy.

        2. Glad there has been progress TK. Hoping he gets to rehab soon. The medical plans we have compared to 15-20 years ago are so bad and so much red tape now, it’s crazy.

  20. What’s been remarkable is how persistently mild it’s been here and in other parts of the Lower 48, as well as much of Europe, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME Iceland, Greenland, parts of the Yukon and Alaska have been historically cold, as have parts of China, Siberia, and much of the Southern Hemisphere.

    1. All comes back to the stability of the hemispheric pattern.

      It’s only speculation on my part, but I wonder if lengthy La Nina can lead to that. Since we have only observed a few small handful of 3-winter La Nina episodes, we don’t have much to go by. I only wonder if it’s a factor. And if it is, we probably won’t know solidly for a very long time. Science can both yield quick results while at the same time being a painfully slow process!

      On a different subject, I noted a murder of crows migrating across my region today. I haven’t seen many crows around here recently! It’s nice to hear that caw of theirs. I did notice that pigeons, that had been absent in my area as well after being abundant when I was younger, are making a strong comeback.

      Also saw on the news 2 bald eagles on the radio tower of Stoneham PD yesterday. We also have a couple down at Horn Pond, and I have STILL YET TO SEE THEM hahaha! Eventually…

      I have, however, seen the Peregrine falcon that hangs out in Woburn Center. 🙂

  21. 18z NAM is a little bit earlier yet and a tiny bit colder on the Tuesday system.

    The 12km version is coldest with highest snowfall (1-3 Boston area and 3-6 NW with less to the SE), while the 3km version is about half that much. NAM outside of optimal forecast zone still, so I’d not just buy it without question. Will keep monitoring.

      1. I’m not going to just call it “snowy” because 1) you still have the uncertainty outside of a couple days and 2) even with a colder overall regime with the unsettled pattern it’s not just a switch-flip – we still have p-types to deal with. This is far from 2015 when it was just straight up cold with no rain/snow lines. They were just all snowstorms for everybody. That is actually more rare than what we’re about to deal with and always has been.

        The way I see things now…

        Monday event: Brief rain CC / Islands, brief rain shower anywhere later.
        Tuesday event: Rain/mix to mix/snow, some minor accumulation N & W.
        Wednesday night / Thursday event: Cold at the surface, warm nose aloft – that’s more of a sleet set-up for a good part of the region.
        Weekend event: More likely a snow event, favoring Sunday, but that’s out a distance so apply the “beyond day 4” rule.

          1. Well, the January 23 event was certainly productive relative to most events we’ve had, so we’ve been there – just not much.

              1. I had almost 6 from that and most of it fell in a couple hours. But I was also in a jackpot zone. 🙂

  23. I realize this goes out a bit in time, but do you expect much snow or ice this coming weekend? My daughter will be driving from Boston to Portland on Friday and back on Sunday and I am hoping for uneventful weather.

    Also, how cold do you think it will get Friday night?

    Thanks.

    1. Friday: Snow showers, lots of wind, and a big temp drop. Probably single digit lows and well below zero wind chills at night.
      Saturday: Dry, cold. Below normal temps.
      Sunday: Snow threat – no idea on amounts.

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