Monday February 20 2023 Forecast (7:12AM)

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Complex, changing weather in a new weather pattern during this week… Rain has already exited Cape Cod after a disturbance brought some there overnight, and today, while being mainly cloudy, will also be mainly dry, other than the chance of a passing rain shower later with a cold front. Tuesday, a small, quick-moving system will approach from the west. Initially a wave of low pressure will ripped out just to our south bringing some rain to the South Coast, then later in the day a frontal boundary and the main system will swing through from west to east with a period of rain/mix/snow, rain most likely to the south, mix to snow to the north (southern NH and northern MA) where a small accumulation can occur. Exit this system at night with a break into Wednesday as a narrow sliver of high pressure moves across the region, but then we enter a stretch of unsettled weather later Wednesday through Thursday and into Friday as a pair of low pressure areas track eastward, passing just to our south. This will be a colder set-up than we’ve seen for many of our storm systems this winter, and we’ll be dealing with a variety of precipitation. Right now, the idea is that things get underway as snow late Wednesday except mix/rain South Coast, then with colder air hanging at the surface but warming aloft we see a sleet / freezing rain situation later Wednesday night into Thursday for much of the region, but perhaps warm enough for just rain South Coast. This breaks for a while as low number 1 exits, but then Thursday evening to early Friday low number 2 comes along with another swath of wintry precipitation, but again maybe some rain at first along the South Coast before ending as something frozen. All areas may end as snow showers Friday as the final low moves offshore, intensifies, and drags colder air in. Once we get to the end of Friday, the look and feel of mid winter will be dominant – something that we never really saw, except parts of the region for a brief time in late January.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers mid to late afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH evening, N under 10 MPH overnight.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain possible South Coast in the morning. Rain/mix/snow arriving west to east afternoon, snow most likely southern NH and far northern MA where a coating to 1 inch of accumulation may occur, mainly on unpaved surfaces. Highs 38-45 by midday but may fall a bit in the afternoon. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing. Black ice formation on untreated surfaces. Lows 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then clouding over. Highs 36-43. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/freezing rain likely, except possibly just rain South Coast. Lows 27-34. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Sleet/freezing rain except South Coast rain early morning. Additional snow/sleet/freezing rain may return late in the day. Temperatures steady 27-34. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/sleet/freezing rain, maybe just rain for a while South Coast. Temperatures steady 27-34. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snow/mix likely early, then variably cloudy with snow showers possible. Temperatures steady 27-34, falling during the afternoon. Wind NE backing to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Watching another low pressure area with a snow/mix threat for the February 25-26 weekend, leaning toward Saturday night / Sunday morning for most likely period of impact. Active pattern may send another system with snow/mix/rain leaning toward frozen variety February 27 or 28. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)

Similar pattern into the early days of March, unsettled, colder with some wintry precipitation opportunities – watching March 2 & 6 as very early call. Temperatures near to below normal.

105 thoughts on “Monday February 20 2023 Forecast (7:12AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    Too bad that frontal boundary setup isn’t a bit further south so that we stay in the “snow” shield instead of the icy mix one. It seems we can never have an “all snow” event around here like the rest of the nation. Walking for me is going to be tricky, I guess now into March.

    1. The front isn’t really the problem, it’s going to be too warm aloft. GFS shows 700mb temps above 0C all the way into southern NH Thursday afternoon, with 850mb temps above 0C into the Merrimack Valley. That’s an awfully thick layer of warm air above a below freezing lower level. That’s a recipe for a lot of sleet and freezing rain.

  2. Thanks, TK.

    FYI. For those interested, I posted a piece on Jonathan Toews’ case of long Covid. It’s on the C-19 side, and will be for a few more weeks.

    1. I saw some tweets from Mets saying Thursday morning might be difficult so I’m interested in the answer to your question also. This time it’s my son and his family in northern VT. They return tomorrow and I’m not sure how travel will be then.

      1. I am thinking around Natick but also wondered about how ice would affect trees. Haven’t seen any mention of a problem so maybe it is a non factor. Thanks

    1. I made a big announcement about that a while ago. The last post was at the start of the year and comments are open till March.

  3. Thanks TK. Continued prayers for your brother and family.

    The pattern change has definitely arrived – honestly, one of the first sub-seasonal, let alone seasonal, aspects of longer range forecasting this winter that has gone right for me. I guess keying in on the warm/Pacific-laden January would count for sub-seasonal too.

    As TK has extensively warned, however, it’s not a slam dunk snow pattern for SNE. Some time ago I mentioned this pattern would likely start out quite zonal/progressive, and that is indeed going to be the case. Maybe by the first or second week of March things turn “blockier” and we reevaluate the pattern. In the meantime, with the Southeast ridge still a factor and a raging -PNA taking shape, one thing I’m fairly confident on is that the further north you are, the better your snow chances. If nothing else, ski country should have a good 2-4 weeks. But there will probably be one or two (not necessarily major) widespread snow events in SNE through 3/10.

  4. For all the talk about the East, the West really is where the action is the next 5-7 days at least. We’ve got it all right now, from the lowest snow levels in years to widespread damaging winds.

    https://www.weather.gov/

    There’s also been some false rumors floating around based on faulty model snow maps – who knew, it happens here too! For entertainment, here’s the 10:1 map through Day 10 on the Euro. The snow level could get as low as 500 feet in northern California and 1000-2000 feet in Southern California. But I’m turning in my degree if downtown LA gets accumulating snow 😛

    https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2023022000/240/sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ca_s.png

  5. That mid week setup, I think it’s possible the low level cold air ends up further south while the milder air aloft ends up further north than currently projected.

    What a mess that looks like.

  6. As of 11am, it’s 82F with a 65F dp. With high pressure aloft and at the surface strengthening, winds are light in south Florida. Ft Lauderdale actually reporting calm. Ocean has really calmed and that’s good cause we’re on a boat adventure this afternoon.

    I have told my wife that one of these years, after the VRBO rental ends, I’m headed to a campground to rent a cabin or camper. 3 days down here and I’m refreshed. Everythings green. Everything is outside. This works for me until May. 🙂

      1. How anyone can be in south Florida and use the word “refreshed” is beyond me. 😉

        Enjoy Tom! That’s all I can say. 🙂

  7. Glad to see comments today from WxW about potential limited snow in SNE over the next few weeks. I had hoped the pattern would stay in effect all winter, especially as people start to look forward to Spring. However, given the mild winter to date, I don’t have my usual winter fatigue that I get every year. Hopefully positive climatology will do its thing in the coming weeks.

  8. It’s 61F in Back Bay.

    After just a little exercise, I’m sweating like it’s early fall or late spring.

    I’m growing skeptical about any measurable/meaningful snow in coastal SNE until December. Just not in the cards this season. I’m less and less skeptical about this winter being truly historically mild. To have a few days like this is one thing. To have SO many very mild days is quite another. I put my hand in the water – Esplanade Lagoon – and it’s not even that cold. The earth is very soft for the time of year. I think many years from now we’ll remember this as the winter that never showed up in most of SNE. More so than 2011-2012, in my humble opinion.

          1. To me, the lack of snow is less conspicuous. It’s more the incredibly persistent mildness; really it’s been months on end, which I’ve never experienced in Boston. Sure, there have been a few ever-so-brief cameo appearances of cold. But, to say that had no staying power is like a British understatement.

            1. As I’ve said. Stable pattern. Where it’s been mild, it’s stayed mild. Where it’s been cold, it’s stayed cold.

              We don’t have many 3-year La Nina’s. This is a good case study.

    1. Caution. Still February. New pattern emerging. 🙂

      Just because it’s mild today (milder than forecast because the clouds broke much more significantly), doesn’t mean it can’t snow at the coast during the next 6 weeks. 😉

  9. I wasn’t in this country in February 1981, which I’ve read was a very mild month. But December 1980 was historically cold. I believe January 1981 was near normal. As a result, I’m guessing the ground was not nearly as soft as it is now. It’s late April/early May soft. The water temperature in the harbor and elsewhere along the coast near Boston is well above normal.

    1. I’d go so far as to say it may be colder than sumner, but it’s darn close to summer soft. I pulled the last of the Christmas decoration stakes from our yard two days ago and I could push it down easily 2.5 feet.

  10. Turned into quite a nice 3-day weekend.

    Today’s temps were pleasantly milder than forecast due to a lot more sunshine than was expected. 🙂

    But, that doesn’t “cancel” the upcoming weather pattern. All of that stands as is with no changes in the forecast…

    1. We briefly hit 60. 57 now. And glorious.

      It’s been a tough day here waiting. But my daughter got some answers today. She finally went to ER er am at hospital where the order was for a CT and had an ER dr who listened. )Dr at her ER visit last week didn’t, ). They did a face and brain CT. Both are clear of any masses or fluid. Thank God. Next is to see a neurologist. Thank you to all for your positive thoughts and prayers.

      1. Ugh on the waiting, but glad to hear there were NO masses or fluid! That part is good news. Let’s hope for more good news soon!

  11. It’s going to be very cold in places where it’s been very cold before this winter: Montana et al. Once again (with one fleeting exception 2 weeks ago), the Northeast will get a glancing blow (Montreal Express has shut down until further notice, which means next year). I’d say it’s more like a weak jab in SNE, though far NNE will get quite cold. I’m not convinced we’ll have below normal temps around here. Perhaps right around normal for this time of year. But once it then moderates and winds shift to a southwesterly, with any sun around the temp will likely overshoot. With no snow cover, soft ground, and March sun, I just don’t see much cold entering the picture. For the latter to happen the jet stream would need to buckle much more than it looks like it will.

    1. Minneapolis – St. Paul area looking at a potentially historic snow fall – the extremely rare forecast of 18-22 inches with 45mph winds. Much Gulf moisture overrunning deep artic air mass.

  12. Son and his family are in Jericho, VT, halfway between Stowe and Burlington. Not a lot of snow but my kind of place. No running water. No electricity. A wood stove and an outhouse. And lots of candles ❤️

    Not a lot of snow though

    https://imgur.com/a/t8L2P5v

    1. Maybe that’s not a lot of snow by VT standards but that looks like a lot more than what’s been in my backyard this winter so far. 😉

  13. Vicki, glad to hear about your daughter’s initial diagnostic work-up.

    You son’s cabin in the woods is my ideal. I’m not exactly surrounded by electronics or gadgets as is, but I like to be completely rid of them when I do a get-away.

    TK, thanks for sharing the Go Fund Me page for your friend’s family.

    1. I realize not a lot of people have much $ to spare these days but I figure I’ll try to reach as many people as possible. It’s heartbreaking what they are going through. 🙁

  14. I find it rather ironic that former President Jimmy Carter is going into hospice on “President’s” Day weekend. May he live out his remaining days in peace.

  15. The Dutch are as pragmatic a people as I know. They’re doers. From dredging up most of the Western part of the country to create inhabitable land that’s below sea level, to the establishment of the world’s most sophisticated dike and dam system to prevent catastrophic flooding from ever happening again. And now they’re at it again. In the Northern provinces Groningen and Drenthe all trains now ride on hydrotreated vegetable oil; specifically the residue from deep-fried French fries or spring rolls. 90% less CO2 emission. https://nos.nl/artikel/2464668-alle-arriva-treinen-in-groningen-en-drenthe-rijden-nu-op-plantaardige-olie

    1. Mac tested oil for power a number of times. It passed all tests. But we don’t want much to do with it in this country.

  16. NNE will be building its snow pack during the next couple weeks, starting with a decent slug midweek, though northern Maine, where there’s plenty of snow, may miss out on that one.

  17. Thanks TK.

    18z GFS is a crush job for New England (been awhile since I said that!). 2 snowstorms in 3 days early next week for SNE, and that’s after the winter storm this week that looks to dump a lot of snow on NNE and snow/mix/ice on SNE.

    Monday 2/27:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022018&fh=156&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Tuesday 2/28:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022018&fh=192&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  18. Vicki, sorry to hear about what your daughter is going through but great to hear they have ruled out the serious stuff. I hope she gets some answers soon.

    Also great picture from Stowe. That cabin and landscape will be surrounded by some deep snow by next week.

    1. Thank you so very much. We sure have an amazing whw family.

      I was thinking you might like the cabin and surrounding area. I am thrilled there will be some snow there soon

  19. Radar shows snow for Boston and points south but it is actually very light rain, nothing frozen.

    According to the Ch. 7 met, the Wednesday-Thursday system is trending warmer.

    1. According to me, that system is not trending warmer.
      Looks exactly the same.

      All snow here in Woburn, 1/2 inch on unpaved surfaces so far. Those radar depictions are not always accurate.

Comments are closed.