Sunday February 26 2023 Forecast (7:59AM)

132 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

For those awake last evening in a good portion of the region you may have been witness to a beautiful and somewhat rare style of snowfall in this area. Now rare and snowfall has been used together this winter several times because of the lack of snowfalls in a very mild, nearly snowless winter pattern, but this is a different kind of rare snowfall – perfect hexagonal snowflakes falling in calm air from a sky that includes some clearing enough at one point to see the moon, Venus, and Jupiter shining brightly before they set. So both rare and a bit unique. This was the end portion of a snowfall event that even slightly over-performed model and meteorologist expectations, dropping a good 1/2 to 2 inches of low water content fluff over much of the region. This was due to relatively warmer air riding up and over a cold dome of air in place and the recipe was just there for it all to happen that way. This morning, a low level inversion results in some very spotty freezing and/or frozen drizzle, then later today, we may see some additional flakes from a passing low pressure area, the center of which will scoot just north of the region this afternoon, allowing us to warm up a little over yesterday’s chill. This system won’t produce much other than a rain or snow shower to the south, with most of the snow shower activity concentrated to the north of I-90. A few of these showers of snow may put down a quick new coating, briefly slicking up some roads and walks. The system is outta here this evening and a small area of high pressure will then build in overnight into Monday with dry weather. We’ll see clouds advancing during Monday, thickening up later in the day, ahead of a well-advertised winter storm system approaching. This one is going to be a light to moderate snowfall for our region. Model guidance tends to under-estimate the scope of the cold air hanging on with these systems, so I expect this to be a mainly snow event for the WHW forecast area, beginning late Monday night and lasting well into Tuesday, with just some potential for rain to become involved right on the South Coast / Cape Cod before the main precipitation ends Tuesday afternoon. The system won’t have much wind with it for our area as we will be between a primary low that travels into the Great Lakes and a secondary low that forms and moves out south of New England, with not that expansive a circulation, kind of an elongated system, stretched west-to-east. Exit this system Tuesday night, and in builds a small area of high pressure to bring fair weather for the first day of March. But the active pattern will roll on and another low pressure system will impact our region Thursday. Early indications are that this one is destined to have milder air in place for its arrival and take a track a little further north, with a mix/rain event more in the cards versus a snowy one, but at day 5 I’m not ready to lock that idea in just yet, so we’ll see how it goes.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty freezing/frozen drizzle this morning. Chance of snow showers north of I-90 and a possible mix/rain shower I-90 belt south in the afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind calm early, then SW-S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives late evening and overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow likely, may mix with rain before ending South Coast. Snowfall accumulations 1-3 inches South Coast / Cape Cod, 3-5 inches MA South Shore, inland RI, MA North Shore, I-95 belt, 5-8 inches interior southern NH, central MA, and northeastern CT. Higher probability for the lower sides of the ranges to verify than the upper sides. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: An early snow flurry possible otherwise clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix. Highs 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 3-7)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats March 4 and 6-7. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 8-12)

General idea is for continued colder than normal but a drier, less active pattern in terms of storm threats.

132 thoughts on “Sunday February 26 2023 Forecast (7:59AM)”

  1. Thanks TK. Numbers look reasonable. Clearly I was overdone but still things can change. Watch the fluff factor as the air should be plenty cold up here and NW.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I am thinking about 3 inches here in JP. We shall see.
    Simply NOT impressed by this one at all and very disappointed
    in the next one in line. Typical of this miserable Winter.

    As far as I am concerned, bring on SPRING!!!

  3. Thank you TK. I noticed a couple of TV mets caveating things when it comes to Tuesday snowfall amounts in eastern MA. I guess I saw two or three referring to the mix potential at the end of the storm.

  4. Thanks TK !

    System entered further into 00z HRRR 48hr window.

    Seems it projects the steadiest snow in the 5-8 am window eastern areas.

    So, perhaps a lot of Tuesday morning impacts due to timing vs impressive totals.

  5. Thanks TK
    First Winter Storm Watch of the season for my area! My area is looking good for about 6 inches of snow at the moment!

      2. TK it has been a while since my area has been in the jackpot zone. 12z runs of the HRRR and the NAM bullish for snowfall amounts in my area.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Based on your thoughts above, I get the impression that the pattern gets quiet towards mid-March and that we have a relatively short window of opportunities for snow for the next 2 weeks.

    Worcester 23.2”
    Boston 10.7”

    According to Jacob, Boston will NOT end up in the top-10 least snowiest, if I understood him correctly. A lot of stats.

    1. I think the pattern quiets down in terms of frequency of systems passing through. Right now if you count every system we literally have one going through This past Thursday, another one yesterday, another one today, the upcoming Monday night and Tuesday system, and pretty solid potentials around March 4th and 6th. Even a quieter pattern will still likely have a couple threats so I am not looking for it to just shut down. I think the overall trend will be drier but continued on the colder side of average as we head into mid-March.

  14. JPD… I have definitely been paying attention because yesterday I mentioned that that model would do this once it figured out the fact that it would be colder. This is why my forecast snow amounts are what they are and not much lower closer to the coast.

      1. Both Orlov and Hathaway.

        I think the Ullmark goal was the either the 4th or 5th goal in NHL everby a goalie.

        1. Thanks Longshot and that’s great !!

          I do watch some bruins hockey and I know he’s come close one other time I can recall earlier this year. Glad he got it this time !!

    2. You would think with all of that energy available that perhaps the system Overnight Monday into Tuesday might produce some
      decent snows. Oh well, doesn’t always work that way.

  19. Twitter is going nuts hyping next weekend storm..
    Coming from the usual suspects. But we know they will never learn so I’m just letting them scroll right by today. 😀

    2. I was just about to post the same thing. Very intrigued by the late week system. Looks pretty loaded with moisture on all of the models. Blend the Euro/CMC solution with a bit of the GFS solution and we are in business.

  24. Still sticking with 3-4″ for me in north shore. I’ll probably eat crow (or is that snow?) on this one. The possibility of late mixing is sort of not predictable/forecastable.

  25. Thanks TK.

    I wouldnt be surprised if the NWS expanded the Winter Storm Watches further east into central MA and NC/NE CT this afternoon. Both NAM’s, the HRRR, and the GFS are delivering a widespread 7-8″across northern CT.

    Should be a good storm down this way and as long as we surpass 5.5″, would be the biggest storm of the season for me.

  27. Nice compilation of the model ensemble mean tracks for the late week storm threat. GFS ensembles all over the place but more agreement on the Euro/CMS ensembles of a track SE of us…

    eweather
    @Eweather13
    1h

    After we rain Thursday with a brief warm up…all eyes on late week for another storm system. A continued impressive look on the ensembles. Stay tuned…let’s get through early week first.

    https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1629865538670276609?s=20

  29. All things considered, does 3-5 still look good for metro west? Good news at least for me is that average temps are moving into the 40s soon so even below normal temps can be well above freezing. I know it can snow above freezing but melting is right around the corner.

  32. Funny, each game yesterday ended with “something unique”. Red Sox ended with a time clock violation, the Bruins with a goalie goal into an empty net, and the Celtics ended with a 3-point shot by Tatum and almost a 3 point response at the buzzer by the 76-ers. I didn’t watch all of any game but the endings were all worth watching/noting. I DID happen to be watching each one live as they happened.

    Thank you as always for the thoughtful storm dialogue and sharing. My wife had off this year (public school vacation week) and I have mine in March instead so wouldn’t mind a snow day but 3-5 seems on the fence. It actually has been such an easy winter that I could go either way. The kids, of course, were miffed last week when we had school with C-1″….I told them not to jinx a “real” call. Siri says 22 days until Spring.

    1. It actually snowed most of the afternoon in my area. I had snow showers in the forecast for a reason. 🙂

  34. TK – Has an NHL goalie ever scored a goal while the opposing goalie was actually GUARDING his own net? Now THAT would be impressive!

  37. Philip I was wondering the same thing earlier today. I’m guessing someone would have mentioned it or included it in the nhl video linked above.

    1. I do not think so, But I don’t know for sure.

      I do know that last night was the 1st time a Bruin’s goalie has ever scored, period. I think it has been done 4 or 5 times before in the NHL.

      I did find this:

      Has a goalie ever scored a goal on another goalie?

      Image result for Has an NHL Goalie ever scored a goal when the other goalie was in the net?

      Martin Brodeur is the only goalie to score against another goalie, when he scored against Dan Ellis on his third career goal, although Ellis was on his way to the bench for an extra attacker on a delayed penalty call and failed to make it back to the net in time to prevent the puck from entering the goal.

      1. On a technicality yes but we have never had a goalie shoot a puck and beat another goalie in net in the NHL.

        1. But now we have had a batter called out on two throw pitches! Going to have to revisit “three strikes and you’re out”….;)

  42. NWS Discussion saying if short range models appear to be on to it that they may convert advisories to warnings

    1. Specifying the eastern slopes of Berks eastward a bit from there, down into CT & interior RI – not for everyone. These are the areas that I spotlight 5-8 inches of snowfall in my range. These are the jackpot zones, closer to the approaching shortwave, the rate of weakening of which remains in question.

  43. The Storm Radar app I spoke to last night is sponsored by The Weather Channel. Their temps are typically pretty solid even 5 days out. I am near Padanaram Harbor in South Dartmouth and has temps at 31 when snow starts Monday night – so depending how heavy that initial wave of moisture before we get above 32 will determine if we can get two plus inches here. As for Friday/Saturday I am not convinced we get a big one yet on south coast at least with temps forecast for upper 30s. It will be March you know

    1. Well, for the record, the app is not actually forecasting anything. It’s only a vehicle to get information from one place to another. Their temp forecasts are really no better or worse than most of the professionals for any given location, and are subject to the same increased errors with time. 🙂

      I’ll stick to solid meteorology for my calls on upcoming events. The apps, if done PROPERLY, are products of similar thinking – the meteorological process. You just have to beware of apps that are pulling straight model data, because they’re going to lead you astray rather quickly on a routine basis. If you have a good app, being updated regularly by competent forecasters, then its usefulness will be elevated.

  44. And yes, we should be paying attention to the short range guidance. Not saying any particular run is 100% gonna nail this, but I see a lot of the “right idea” being painted by pretty much the entire set of short range stuff.

  47. Geez, if the CFS is right, winter will be lasting right into April and the only thing pools will be opening early for is to skate on! 😉

    1. I’m still holding out hope for snow in June at some point in my lifetime. We’ve had (even accumulating) snow in May several times. I want to see snow once in my lifetime in June. I thought it might happen during that very cold stretch in early June of 2015. Boston’s maximum temperature was 49 on June 1st and 2nd.

      1. Although EXCEEDINGLY rare, this year could be a potential candidate pending the warm season impacts of Hunga Tonga.

    1. 8” here and double digit snows out your way. Sure would be great if we could lock that run in but it looks a bit overdone.

  51. The tv mets continue to introduce rain eventually for most of eastern sections in their forecasts. They are not really bullish for snow in this area at all.
    TK – How much for Boston?

      1. It would if I agreed with anyone who said that, but I don’t.
        3-5 for Boston. That is bullish for snow, as far as I think this system can produce there.
        I was never going for “a big one”.

  54. Vicki the biggest snowfall for the season for inland CT was back on December 11th when BDL got 6.2 inches of snow.

  56. While the GFS for next weekend isn’t all snow for southern New England, it’s definitely simulating a storm impacted by a developing block and getting pushed underneath us. Still a lot of wintry mix with it.

    Early trends suggest a cold system or even one that could eventually get suppressed to our south. I think a mild westerly track is the option with the lowest chance of occurring.

  57. Late tonight/tomorrow ….. to borrow from JpDave, not impressed.

    If we just had some colder air Tuesday, looks like the 6z short range keeps it precipitating most of the day. If it were in the 20s, over time, might have built up. But, with temps in the mid 30s ….. I just how eastern MA superintendents utilize delayed starts tomorrow.

    2. Yes, it’s going to be a tough call for School Superintendents tomorrow, including Boston.

      But the way home from school should not be an issue at all.

      1. I wouldn’t count on that.
        Schools will likely be called anyway because of the early commute issues and afternoon won’t be a problem, but afternoon travel may not be a piece of cake everywhere either, just more improved.

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