Tuesday February 14 2023 Forecast (7:29AM)

48 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

An upper level disturbance went by overnight with a few rain and snow showers that if you were not awake for them you’d never have known they were even around if they passed by your area. High pressure heads for New England today but some lingering clouds will be in the sky in the wake of the upper low before we see more sun as the air dries out, but a nice day overall. High pressure moves overhead tonight and today’s gusty breeze will drop off, then the high moves off to the east Wednesday and a warm front moves through from southwest to northeast with more clouds and a possible shower of rain through midday before some clearing, and a return of the breezy weather. A cold front will approach but not quite get here Thursday as the boundary will have to wait for another low pressure wave to move by the region that night, when our best chance of rain occurs after a very mild day. The anomalous warmth continues very early Friday but as the low moves by to the north, the front will swing through, the wind will shift, and the temperature will go down later Friday as it dries out. This leads to a dry, chilly start to the weekend.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix morning. Sunny afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds return overnight. Lows 21-28. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a rain shower in the morning. Sun returns afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind variable under 10 MPH early, then SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear to partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny early then mainly cloudy. Late-day rain possible. Highs 58-65, probably cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely through midday, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62 morning, falling temperature afternoon. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

Dry weather to finish off the weekend February 19. A milder trend arrives February 20 maybe with a touch of light precipitation, but this one looks more brief with fair weather on February 21, then a colder trend and potential unsettled weather including wintry precipitation later in the period, though low confidence on timing and details this far out.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Flatter ridge of high pressure in the US Southeast allows the boundary between warm air to the south and cold air in Canada to be in our region with a more unsettled pattern as a result and colder than its been allowing a greater chance of frozen precipitation being involved.

48 thoughts on “Tuesday February 14 2023 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Anchorage AK has recorded their most snowfall on record. So much that there is little to no room left to put it.

    Feast or famine. Maybe our turn next winter?

    1. I’ve mentioned several times this winter already that it is a case of the haves and have nots. Places that have had very little snow have continued that pattern while places that have been snowy have been really snowy. Cold versus warm same thing. It’s the mark of a very stable pattern and we do not have a lot of third year La Niña winters to go by. So a lot of open-mindedness is needed when assessing all of this stuff. That is how science works. All information must be taken into account, not just some.

      But it may still be a little too early to say on to next winter around here…. This is alluded to in my discussion today. 🙂

      1. Well, we certainly won’t make up our snow deficit in March. All SNE locations will end up well below normal no matter how much falls.

        1. Even if it’s well above?
          Be careful. This is NOT a certainty.

          In late January of 2015 people will already certain that we were going to end up with below normal snowfall for the winter……

    2. Anchorage is nowhere near their most snowfall on record. So far, it is the 29th snowiest on record. The total of 74.8″ thus far is WELL below the record of 134.7″ set in 2011-12.

        1. The newscasters must have totally read it wrong or just got bad information or whatever…I’ll certainly go along with SAK then.

          I guess newscasters and weather info/stats don’t mix? WBZ radio is a perfect example unfortunately. What I heard this morning re: Anchorage was on Ch. 7 news.

          1. It sounded close to what you said. I doubt the anchors were incorrect. Wording can be a bit different and throw folks off. Either way. Too many firsts or seconds or thirds lately

  3. Spring street cleaning is in full swing here in Reading Massachusetts. They are making a big mistake… Oh well.

      1. That’s just shortsighted. I’m sorry. Even though I don’t think we’ll have much snow – if any – the rest of the winter, the calendars says it’s still winter. Should a storm or two hit in March, there always needs to be a plan in place, which includes parking restrictions.

        1. I like the idea of street sweepers periodically during the winter bare ground times. Street gutters are filled with lots of crap especially as we get closer to spring.

          I believe Boston sweepers end around late November and return mid-late April.

    2. This is sadly not true. I recall saying the same in the past and wondering if towns had money to burn why not cut our taxes.

    3. But no jabbing here , how can you be so sure ? Yes it could get cold , but that’s no guarantee it comes with snow !

      1. Because there’s no guarantee it doesn’t, and taking that stuff down and cleaning the streets in February is foolish. You don’t “chance” it because it’s been a quiet winter. Everyone wrote winter off in JANUARY in 2015 and … oops. If you live in New England and have an ounce of common sense, you don’t “end winter” in mid February.

        1. I agree. And you don’t need snow to trigger pretreating and treating roads. Any precipitation mixed with cold will do that.

          1. You’re right. A lot of people focus strictly on snow (and snow amounts) as the reason for hazardous travel – driving & walking. But you can get it with 10 minutes of freezing rain and many other combinations of winter weather that are not “significant snow”.

  6. Story book sky this morning…..perfect blue dotted with white puffy clouds.

    Happy Valentine’s Day to all

  10. Thanks TK.

    I also saw a street sweeping operation by CT DOT on I-384 in Manchester this AM. I think the maintenance crews are literally just bored and have nothing else to do right now.

  11. 12z models today continue to depict a colder pattern with a couple snow chances next week. You can clearly see the effects of blocking starting to take place next week….just need to be careful now it doesn’t flip too far the other way and we end up cold and dry with suppression depression! Still a ways out and plenty of time to watch but definitely starting to look more “interesting” next week.

    1. Yes, there is consistency. And that was missing before. I’m a bit intrigued. And, we’re getting closer to when this might happen. we’ll just have to wait and see.

  12. 12z GFS for next Thursday (after a miss with snow to the SOUTH a day prior):

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023021412&fh=222&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs

    12z CMC for roughly the same time period:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023021412&fh=228&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12z Euro incoming but hitting the block at the end of its run:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023021412&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  19. I sat outside, toasted Mac for Valentine’s Day with a wine he’d often being back from his Rome visits, and watched the spacelink float by.

  20. This video below has little to do with weather, although there are several references to “summer time.” It’s a Bob Seger song from 1976 and a reminder of what I absolutely love about the American genre of rock. Since the first day I heard it on the radio many moons ago to today it remains a classic tune. “Night Moves:” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xH7cSSKnkL4

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