Thursday February 23 2023 Forecast (6:47AM)

162 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

We’re in the midst of a drawn-out period of unsettled weather. First was a burst of snow to sleet, some freezing rain (except South Coast rain where it was milder), as a warm front tried to push into the region. The snow area held on longer with a weaker warm intrusion aloft, and allowed a bit more in the way of accumulation further east (inside I-95) to the north of I-90. This frontal boundary doesn’t really make it far, and it just ends up heading back to the south today anyway as surface cold air drains down from the north behind an initial weak wave of low pressure that passed by here. Next comes the frozen / freezing drizzle that will occur today due to a low level inversion – cold air with a light northeasterly air flow trapped below a warmer southeasterly air flow not too far above that, which keeps the moisture trapped near the ground and results in little droplets of water – liquid that freezes on contact with surfaces, or just frozen and falls as little ice grains. We’ll still have some episodic bursts of snow and sleet to the north, sleet and freezing rain south, and non-freezing rain (well south). With most main surfaces treated, we shouldn’t see too much trouble on the roads, but any untreated walkways and stairways, etc., can be slick, so use caution if you have to be out there. The next phase comes as another low pressure wave and frontal boundary push through from west to east this evening, with a little more substantial precipitation – mainly sleet and some snow in southern NH and northern MA, freezing rain to the south, but again with temperatures probably just above freezing it may be just liquid rain right along the South Coast. This batch of precipitation skedaddles pretty quickly overnight and an arctic cold front will be coming through on Friday, possibly accompanied by a snow shower or snow squall. Luckily, a gusty wind and very low dew point will help surfaces dry off without too much icing, but any areas that don’t dry off will quickly ice over if they are not already frozen, as we see a temperature drop during the day. While this arctic shot will be tame in comparison to the one on February 3-4, you’ll still feel it, especially Friday night, with temperatures dipping to the single digits above zero, but wind chill readings going well below zero with the help of a busy northwesterly wind. While the breeze keeps up somewhat into Saturday, it will not be as strong or gusty, and with at least partial sun shining from a higher angle, despite temperatures being well below normal for highs, it will feel somewhat more tolerable to be outside. We’ll have to watch for some snow showers to traverse the region Saturday afternoon though as a disturbance comes through in the northwesterly air flow. Temperatures moderate on Sunday, back to about normal levels, and a weak clipper low will move quickly through the region during the afternoon and evening hours with a round or two of precipitation probable, most likely falling as snow, but possibly some mix/rain toward the South Coast, depending on the magnitude of the temperature moderation that day. In its wake, we’ll have a fair and seasonably chilly day on Monday, but clouds will already be on the increase before the day is over ahead of the next storm system in a continued active weather pattern…

TODAY: Cloudy. Freezing and/or frozen drizzle. Periods of snow/sleet north, sleet/freezing rain south with rain well south. Temperatures fall slightly to 26-33. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. A period of sleet and freezing rain, maybe just rain immediate coast, and may mix with snow higher elevations southwestern NH to north central MA with a minor accumulation (coating). Temperatures rise slightly to 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Early to mid morning clouds with a passing snow shower possible, then mostly sunny. Highs 30-37 early, then falling into and through the 20s. Wind N-NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 4-11. Wind NW 15-25 MPH early, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below zero especially evening.

SATURDAY: Sunniest early, then lots of clouds with intervals of sunshine. Scattered snow showers midday-afternoon. Highs 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain midday on. Highs 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

Active pattern – watching low pressure areas to bring potential wintry precipitation threats February 28, March 2, and March 4. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)

Additional unsettled weather including another precipitation threat around the March 6-8 window. Temperatures near to below normal.

162 thoughts on “Thursday February 23 2023 Forecast (6:47AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I was truly surprised to see it SNOWING this morning in JP.
    I expected sleet at best, possible freezing rain, but most likely plain rain here. Nope it is SNOWING. 🙂

  5. Thanks, TK. Didn’t measure it but it looks like we have 1-maybe 2 inches of snow in Sudbury. There must be ice out there as plows are quite busy. All night heard sleet/freezing rain . It’s kind of intermittent now. I guess winter is finally here.

  7. I measured three inches in Lunenburg. The total this season is 28.5″, 3.5″ above what we had last year at this date.

  8. Thanks TK.

    I would say more frozen than liquid here in Boston. I am now totally convinced of the upcoming new pattern.

    Worcester 19.9” Boston 8.5” (updated)

  9. Thank you TK and hoping family members doing well.

    Still flipping around on precipitation types on the north shore.

  12. Thanks TK.

    33F with a glaze of ice on the trees here in Coventry CT but currently raining. Roads are fine and no school delays. The small coating of snow/sleet we had last night is mostly gone.

    1. Note the 0z Euro is now showing a cutter for the 3/4 system as it weakens the block by then but still a long ways off on that one and plenty of ensemble spread.

  16. Thanks TK

    Snowing here. Lots of mentions of bad driving conditions. Any snow we had was barely measurable. The snow now is creating a light coating. Our roads were treated after snow stopped last night and before sleet arrived. I heard the trucks once in night but could have easily slept through more. I figure when they get to our small neighborhood in furthest possible in SE Sutton, the rest of the town is also treated.

  17. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022300&fh=129&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022300&fh=129&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022300&fh=138&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022300&fh=138&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Understanding it’s 5 days out and changes are coming …..

    If timing were to stay the same, it’s the lead band of snow that’s likely to be productive. It falls at night and temps are below 32F.

    Through daylight hrs Tuesday though, early afternoon temps are projected at or just above 32F with a 40 degree max sun angle.

    The idea being looks like early indications show not a ton of polar air to work with, leaving us with very marginal temps during daytime brightness.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snod-imp&rh=2023022300&fh=138&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    And I think in eastern and southern areas, this snow depth projection kind of accounts for all of that.

  22. Poor Malden…

    Embarrassed on the air by WBZ radio… Oh boy.

    You may recall (or may not), the town leader(s) declared winter to be over earlier in February and ordered all of the parking bans to be done for the year as well as the storage of most of the snow removal and treatment equipment……………

    ………oops.

  24. What a difference 50 miles makes: About an inch of snow in Boston when I left my apartment early this morning and it was sleeting and snowing and quite a slippery walk to Back Bay station. Got out at Providence and there was no snow at all and just some light rain. No glop, even. And not a slippery walk up College Hill (that I had expected).

    1. On the surface map, it’s mid 20s not too far away from you. Just another 5-10 degree shift in the wind and you should drop a few to several degrees more.

      1. Oh yeah, I get that.
        I am still OH so surprised that it is SNOWING here.
        A wonderful surprise. IT looks so beautiful out there.
        Going out in a few to clear the walks and put down some salt before the mailman comes. 🙂

  27. Still well above freezing in Providence – 35F – and I see it’s now 31F in Boston. While not at all out of the ordinary to see this discrepancy, that can make a big difference meteorologically.

  30. Just had to walk a few blocks to another offsite location & it’s cold with snow flying . Tk leaving at 3:23 how’s the commute looking to Halifax

  31. Just went out to clear the walks and lay down some salt.
    For a brief moment, perhaps 2 minutes, it was HEAVY snow. I am not kidding. Then it switched to light snow. But was it ever coming down, albeit for a very brief period.

  32. At this point, this SNOW appears to be Ocean Effect to me.
    I can see BANDS of snow coming in from the ocean.
    At times it is quite light and at other times it looks like we are in the middle of a heavy snow storm. Pretty awesome if you ask me.

    Btw, we only had an accumulation of about 1/2 to 3/4 inch is all and it was heavy so there was clearly sleet overnight.

    1. And this is just the beginning of the soon to be (in)famous 2023 late season snow blitz … Oh wait, I am getting waaay ahead of myself.

  38. One thing to keep in mind, a long-time co-worker has a rule that usually is accurate:

    If the low pressure passes west of Chicago – we end up with all snow here. If it passes east of Chicago, we’ll change over here.

    The 12z GFS brings it right over Chicago.

      1. Considering that the trend has been for it to come farther east with every run (it was up into Minnesota, and the GFS now has some mixing into CT with the storm, then no, 50/50 is not the odds I’d use.

    2. So how does this rule work?

      If it passes west, then there is some sort of block that
      would allow for some sort of coastal to our South
      and if it passes East, then not as much of a block and allows
      for warmer air to flow in here?

      Curious about this. Thank you.

      1. It’s actually fairly simple.

        If a storm is passing west of Chicago, it usually means that there’s a big high across southeastern Canada, so the odds of a system redeveloping farther east, usually near the Mid-Atlantic states (south of the big high) are pretty good, with the high locking the colder air in. For the upper-levels, it usually means the ridge axis is in the Great Lakes, so there’s a trough near the East Coast.

        If it is passing east of Chicago, then the high is likely farther south and/or east, meaning the system will end up cutting through the Lakes, with southwest or southerly flow here, and thus warmer air and a wintry mix (or rain). For the upper-levels, it means that the trough is in the Midwest, with the ridge closer to the East Coast.

        This is one of those old-school forecasting rules that we’ve learned over the years.

        The two that I remember the most (besides this one) are that if you have a low pass south of Los Angeles, you can expect an East Coast snowstorm 2-3 days down the road, and the “Burlington Rule”, which states that in northwest flow, take the 1pm temperature in Burlington, VT, and that will be your low in Boston the next morning.

        For the record – the GFS, before taking this system right across Chicago, has it pass close to Los Angeles this weekend.

        3. This is interesting. Currently forecast for Sunday in Minneapolis is rain (when low temp there tonight will be ten below) due to storm going north and west of the Twin Cities – but will change over to snow by Monday morning – close call for them

          1. None of the models have the storm passing north and west of the Twin Cities. They all have it crossing Iowa or even northern Missouri.

  39. 81F with a 69F dew point here. Steady SE wind off 74F ocean capping high temp in the low 80s. I think the overnight low was 73F.

    I am appreciative of the time down here. Our last full day today.

    The thought of returning to cold and probably some snow ………… noooooooooooo !! 🙂

    1. That’s a wide area of 12-16″. Even if you cut those projections in half (which is pretty conservative), that’s still a significant snowfall of 6″ or more for most.

  42. For 3/4:

    12z Euro now over amped with a cutter passing well to our west.

    12z CMC/GFS both colder with a snow/mix storm and track SE of us.

    Still a ways off…

  43. The map he posted below is the Euro Kuchera snowmap:

    eweather
    @Eweather13
    20m

    12z Euro continues with a long duration winter storm late Mon – Wed am. Slow moving sfc low followed by ULL tracking just SW of SNE. Watch for mixing early due to mild air intrusion from the SW – but if this holds, where mostly snow could be a widespread +/- foot of snow.

  44. Euro ensemble low centers (I believe this is from 6z).

    You can see a lot of spread still however note the secondary low centers are all south and east of New England. Should lock in the cold air for most.

    eweather
    @Eweather13
    4h

    Last 4 Euro ensemble runs. Plowable snowstorm still on the table Mon night through Tuesday night.

    The most recent run is the most favorable run if you want snow.

    https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1628761787226095616?s=20

    1. The mid-level warm intrusion was kind of a failure to some degree…

      Not the first time we’ve seen that.

    1. geez, the way this winter has gone, that’s bold. I could get on board with snow to mix to rain at most until I’m proven wrong actual day of.

  51. Might be fun to get a screen shot of the weather across the Lower 48 yesterday and today. There’s something from every season, frankly, along with extremes on both ends of the scale, and every type of precipitation in varying amounts. Of course, we live in a very large country, so naturally we’ll see lots of differences in weather on a map of the Lower 48. But, the maps yesterday and today are pretty special.

  52. GFS Ensemble mean for the Tuesday storm: 3-6″
    CMC Ensemble Mean for the Tuesday storm: 4-8″
    ECMWF Ensemble mean for the Tuesday storm: 5-9″

    Let’s not go crazy just yet.

    1. What you just posted represents a run of the mill moderate
      event. NOTHING special at all. I hope it over achieves, IF it even happens at all.

      1. The possibly positive news is all numbers, higher and lower, are more than three days out. In the meantime I do enjoy reading all of the links shared here

    1. The issue with the model trends today for CT is that the parent low, tracking in the vicinity of Chicago, stays stronger for longer, forcing a later secondary ocean storm development that is further north. This in turn puts the heavier axis of snow to the north across MA while CT ends up in lighter snow, and even some brief mixing, after the initial heavy snow thump.

      Still a good storm for us and would be the biggest of the season, but if the current operational runs are correct, eastern MA would be ground zero for the heaviest snow with this system.

    1. Yes, at this point I’ll take 3 inches. Really. So long as it looks nice and sticks around for a couple of days. I’m officially snow-deprived, and I’ll take just about anything.

        1. Hahahaha. But I didn’t even measure. I’m the one that my immediate neighbors think is nuts because I measure first thing in my PJs ams bare feet.

  65. Eric Fisher tweets:

    Well March is about to start…which means winter is beginning

    This is actually the coldest stretch we’ve had since *last* January (2022). That’s the last time we strung together at least 6 days below 40F. #wbz

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1628918908106207236?s=46&t=P0GtzVpF4cHDTE6wkeD55w

    We’re probably in a wintry pattern for the next several weeks. Couple little warm-ups here and there but the spring weather will be on hold for a while

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1628923754595098629?s=46&t=P0GtzVpF4cHDTE6wkeD55w

  66. I’m fairly well sold on a widespread 6″+ event in at least a good portion of SNE from the early next week storm.

    However, a word of caution: most of the “energy” with this storm is wrapped into what’s going to be the historic winter storm over Southern California the next 48 hours. From there, it’s going to head towards the Plains and contribute to what’s expected to be a major severe weather outbreak in the southern Plains on Sunday. And then from there to SNE as it redevelops a secondary low.

    That’s a *lot* of topographical and convective feedback interactions that lie ahead. The relative consistency of modeling the past 24-36 hours makes some sense given that there haven’t been as many critical interactions like that over that time.

    Going to be a real interesting meteorological case too, it’s not an overly common setup. For instance, a gut instinct might be “stronger primary low = bad for snow”. But it might be that a stronger primary low ends up further west, occludes sooner, and leaves more “runway” for a secondary to develop and strengthen to its east. Whereas a weaker/further east primary low may be more reluctant to occlude and slower to give up control to the secondary. Lots of fun stuff to watch the next few days!

      1. From a pattern perspective, things are evolving as expected. Certainly too early to count any chickens on the storm though 🙂

  69. It’s a long way off …but both GFS & Canadian are lower on snowfall early next week (op runs).

    I’m on my way to let a dog out.

  73. 0z GFS and CMC still look good for early next week.

    As TK said, a tick downward in snow amounts but still significant for all. 18z GFS had 13”, 16” and 8” Kuchera respectively for Boston, Worcester and Hartford while 0z has 8”, 13” and 6” for those locations.

  74. Hi Vicki. I hope you get to enjoy some thunder sleet also. The sleet pellets were the biggest I’ve ever seen, looked more like summertime hail.

  75. Just eyeing the surface obs and radar over SNE right now, I’d have to imagine a lot of places are a major skating rink…

    1. Listening to the police scanner several ambulances have been sent to a multiple car accident on the mass pike in Charlton. Your suspicions are correct WxWatcher

    2. I can confirm that. Instant ice storm. Not too often I’ve seen heavy freezing rain over my time but tonight was one of them. It lasted about 5 minutes heavy and 10 minutes moderate and was good for about 0.2 inch glaze.

  76. 0z CMC clocks us again two days later with a quick hitting snow event next Thursday:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022400&fh=159&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    GFS is farther north with this feature and has that one all rain.

    Active pattern continues with another snow threat next Saturday on the GFS:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022400&fh=207&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    CMC is mostly offshore with that system, for now.

    1. The basic idea with models beyond day 4 still applies.

      Social media has many people believing otherwise – that since “the models” have shown some big hit solutions, that it’s a lock.

      Nothing is a lock yet.

      I heard people applying snowfall amounts already to next Tuesday. BIG no-no. You might as well walk out on an ice covered limb while blindfolded.

        1. No maps yet from TV guys. They won’t do that for a while yet – basically when the management tells them they have to, or more hopefully when they get to decide themselves – the way it should be. I’m speaking more of social media, which I try to avoid, but people keep sending me screen shots and asking me questions which is fine. 😉 But I can’t avoid it based on that .. HAHA.

          I’m going to attempt first call myself about 72 hours out. Usually I do 60.

  77. What is a lock is the Bruins win in Seattle tonight…

    Not too often you see this many lead changes in a hockey game.

    1-0 Seattle
    1-1
    2-1 Seattle
    2-2
    3-2 Bruins
    3-3
    4-3 Bruins
    4-4
    5-4 Seattle
    5-5
    6-5 Bruins

    1. Those 25 to 37 inch amounts that were being slathered all over the internet … I actually had people asking me if we were getting 3 feet of snow. Yes, this does have an impact on what we do, sadly.

  79. TK, Bruins game was just unreal. I am usually in bed by 9:30PM, but I stayed up and watched the whole thing through. What a game. (Neither side very good on D.)

    1. Brick joked after the B’s took the 6-5 lead. “Let’s see if the Bruins can play good defense for 90 seconds”. HAHA!! They did. 🙂

      A win is a win! I’m not worried about our D. I figured Seattle would be tough. They’re a fast team – the type we struggle a bit with. Thankfully the “O” was clicking.

      1. It’s always good to look. Also keep in mind though that this would also be a function if when the heaviest precipitation was occurring. If it was pounding snow during the daylight, it would negate the effect of the daylight limitation, but let’s say that the bulk of the heavy stuff occurred outside of the daylight hours and the overcast was less thick and precipitation less intense during the day – we’d see less accumulation at that time. Obviously this is a bigger factor now with a higher sun angle, than it would be in January, for example.

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