Sunday December 7 2025 Forecast (7:15AM)

81 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 7-11)

On yesterday’s blog post I talked about a parade of rather weak low pressure systems ahead, and that outlook remains the same. A fast-moving low will pass to our north tonight with a general light snowfall for northern New England, but here in the WHW forecast area in southeastern New England, we may see just a passing snow shower, favoring areas north of I-90, during this evening and tonight. This will bring a surge of colder air back in for Monday. The next system, a small and weakening low pressure area, will pass north of our region Tuesday evening, again with a passing snow shower chance north of I-90. This will be followed quickly by another clipper-style low moving our way via the Great Lakes, but again with a track that will take it north of our region. This system will have a little more moisture to work with, but also drag in some milder air, with initial snow showers going over to mostly rain showers on Wednesday. Behind this comes another surge of cold air for Thursday with a slight chance of a passing snow flurry, but mainly dry and blustery conditions being the highlight.

TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 34-41. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible mainly north of I-90 but favoring southern NH. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible favoring southern NH. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous snow/mix to rain showers. Highs 38-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds with a lingering rain or snow shower early, then clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds with a slight chance of a snow flurry. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Watch periods for potential low pressure impact December 12-13 and again later in the period. Temperatures below normal may trend back toward normal later on.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 17-21)

Not a high-confidence forecast here but best educated guess leads me to lean to one storm traveling into the Great Lakes with a brief warm-up before a return to cold (with a boundary with warmer air not that far to our south). This may increase the opportunity for mix/snow later in the period.

81 thoughts on “Sunday December 7 2025 Forecast (7:15AM)”

      2. This is the period of time I have been referring to to keep an eye on – not worded as “big snowstorm chance” but a time when we have the opportunity for a widespread accumulating snowfall in the area, because the pattern will likely favor it.

        The problem with the GFS, which has been a problem with the GFS for months now – that I am puzzled they have not fixed yet – is the repeated over-amplifying of such systems. It just doesn’t do a good job with these systems at this range, at all, not even what would be expected for that time range. It’s just really, really poor. This is why I basically stop looking at what the GFS operational runs say around “day 5” and look at ENSEMBLES.

        From the 06z … GFS op (13+ inches of snow for Boston) vs GEFS mean (about 3 1/2 inches).

        What happens out on social media is some weather weenie will plaster the GFS op run and then try to act like a professional and sound like a fool in the same line… “we’re watching the possibility of a major snowstorm for mid month, just as we’ve been saying since October.”

        Meanwhile, us actual meteorologists are doing it the right way, as always. 🙂

          1. I’m honestly not sure. There are no staffing issues. There are no $ issues. Maybe they’re trying and it’s just not working.

  3. HS Super Bowl Division 1 Final

    Xaverian Brothers 41
    St. John’s Prep 35

    I predicted 3 out of 4 games correctly yesterday and 6 out of 8 for the entire run. 🙂

  4. Here’s a New England Patriots Info Tidbit…

    With their win on December 1, the Patriots became the first team in NFL history to have a 10-game stretch in which they scored 23 or more points while allowing 23 or fewer points.

    1. Not too shaby.

      So who/what makes the Patriots so good?

      Drake Maye
      Mike Vrabel
      Josh McDaniels
      The schedule
      ALL of the above

      I say all of the above and that is the order I would use. Your order may vary.

    2. I did see that. The current forecast for the Patriots is:

      1) 99% chance of making the playoffs.
      2) 85% chance of winning AFC Title.
      3) 60% chance of being AFC #1 Seed.

      A far cry from what was predicted by the pundits at the beginning of the season. Of course if they experience a single loss, the odds will dip.

      1. Next week’s game will be telling.
        I know they can beat Buffalo and should they win, they are in business. Even if they loose, they are still in great shape.

    1. Instability is marginal (less than what we had Thursday but a little bit), and there’s a batch of mid level dry air that will be overhead as the front approaches. The front is somewhat moisture-starved, though there is a little bit of low level moisture available (made known by the heavy frost this morning).

      The combination of all of this leaves northern MA / southern NH vulnerable to low-topped snow showers, but probably not full on snow squalls. To the south, the chance drops off simply for lack of adequate parameters.

  7. Vrabel has jelled the players into a team that believes in themselves.

    Vrabel also emphasizes situational football. For example, he puts tremendous focus on the last 4 minutes of the 1st half and 1st 4 minutes of the 2nd half, known as the Middle Eight. It is an 8 minute piece of the game that generates momentum swings and a time where many-a-game is won or lost.

    3. I agree with this. There is a version of this in hockey too, but it’s a little different.

      Former players that do commentary often talk about a strong first 5 minutes, don’t give up an early goal and start playing catch-up, or as Andy Brickley refers to it “chasing the score”.

      Another big no-no is giving up that goal, especially a bad one, in the last minute of a period, regardless of what the score is at the time.

    1. I thought of you last week, Philip, after Jacob W posted the same number in his forecast comments! Maybe he gets his info from you! 🙂 Here’s hoping your “countup” gets reset to zero real soon!

  12. The MIAA uses a rather complex formula to seed high schools in its state playoffs in most sports. Unlike the College Football Playoffs, high school teams are seeded by power rankings. Well, it seems that the seedings were extremely accurate with the 2025 football tournament as six of the eight top seeds were crowned champions. Randolph (#4) and Fairhaven (#3) were the only two “non-number ones” to win championships.

    The MIAA went to a true state championship format a couple of years ago in all sports. Before, state regional champs would play each other for sectional and state titles. Now, a Cape Cod high school could be matched up with a western Massachusetts team in a preliminary or early round game.

  14. Was musing a little more this AM about the Siberian snowpack. I read a fair amount about it this week in regards to the upcoming winter. I referred to it yesterday as a possible predictor of snow and cold. TK chimed in saying he did not trust it so much and thought it might have been overemphasized when it was initially being discussed. (I hope I paraphrased that right.)

    I know that the Siberian snowpack in and of itself would not actually cause it to snow more, but I do wonder if it is a disruptor of the PV. I have seen some emphasis on this and that the PV will stretch out into lobes, one of which will dip into the northern and eastern states. In turn, it helps the setup. (Yes, I oversimplified all of this.)

    I am not saying that I am a firm believer that the snowpack disrupts the PV which could create a favorable highway for snow and cold in the eastern US. I am just a life-long curious cat.

    1. Ironically, there’s a correlation between less snow & ice north of the Arctic Circle that can lead to more PV disruption.

      1. That, to say the least, is interesting!

        BTW, earlier this week, I read Judah Cohen’s December 1st blog … “AO and the Polar Vortex.” I am never sure who his audience is, but I get the sense he is a Siberian snowpack believer.

  15. Thanks Tk . Very heavy frost leaving for work at 5:30 this morning that had sanders out in pembroke

    1. Yeah, I’ve seen the local NWS ofc issue a special weather statement for far less icy spots than there were last night.

      I mean, the temp/DP spread was 1, maybe 2F and the RH’s were in the low 90s, the earlier day showers had not dried and it was in the upper 20s. Our driveway was quite icy !!!!

      I would respectfully submit they should have put out a statement last night and I don’t think they ever did.

  16. If you like football and snow, on fox at 1pm, is Cincy vs Buffalo.

    They just had a cam where a light/steady mix of snow and graupel was falling.

      1. For sure !!

        Previous 2 winters so mild, I don’t recall many of these games. Fun to watch, from home 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Awesome !

      Yes, I have faith in the Patriots, but I’d rather they come to Foxboro with 5 losses instead of 4, so go Bengals !!!!

  20. From what I can tell from radar, snow has moved away from Buffalo.

    I wish snow would come S&E of I-495. We are always left out. 🙁

    1. Buffalo is a far snowier area in general, and much more snowy at this time of year than southeastern New England. We’re “left out” because it snows less frequently here at this time of year. It always has. 🙂

        1. It also snows in Boston at times. Also, Worcester is generally 500 to 1000 feet in elevation and many miles from the warmer ocean waters. So none of this is a surprise.

          You’re more likely to snow the further inland, north, and west you go early in the season. Over the long term this is just how it is. It’s been that way since long before we started observing weather, and all the while we have been observing it. This is why there’s nothing frustrating about it. It’s the norm. 🙂

  21. Hmm, I was thinking I should get my imaginary snow shovel and do some pretend digging out from that imaginary snowstorm that the GFS was predicting for today for about 5 straight runs a few days ago. 😉

    1. I think that would make a great video:
      “Real Meteorologist Shovels Imaginary Snow With Imaginary Shovel”
      🙂

      1. You know, that’s an idea. Not to mention, I am eligible for monetized videos now, so instead of posting model runs and wish-casting, maybe I’ll just make my own version of silly stuff that will make me a few pennies while people laugh at me. 😉

  22. Chiefs being shut out through the first half at home by Houston.

    They just doinked the upright on what should have been a fairly easy FG. Whoops.

    I’d love to see the road win here by Houston (even though I don’t really like them either). 😉

  23. I would have liked the Bills loosing this week against the Bengals to give the pats some space if we loose next week. Regardless what a game. Tk dont approve my previous comment. For some reason my phone auto filled my other email

  24. JPD … remember earlier I said the GFS would just pick a different date for the snowstorm to be on? Well … haha!

    12/16/2025. Lock it in! (not)

    1. Good! I do believe that the Chiefs play the Broncos one more time. Would like to see the Chiefs play spoiler. 🙂

  26. I am here at Logan, not thrilled, picking up my daughter from a flight that is 2 hrs late.

    Anyhow, I kid not, it’s flurrying. 🙂

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