Tuesday Forecast

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 17-21)
A low pressure area moving through the region today creates unsettled weather which includes snow showers for parts of the region this morning, then mainly rain showers, ending late-day. Dry, seasonably chilly air returns tonight and Wednesday courtesy high pressure. But things continue to move along and the next system, similar to but a little more potent than today’s will arrive Thursday. This one also has some cold air to work with and should start as snow for a good part of the area before rain once again takes over. Very quickly behind that yet another low travels through the Great Lakes and down the St. Lawrence Valley on Friday, the first full day of spring, and it will drag warm air into the region, making Friday quite the temperature anomaly day compared to the other 4 days in this 5-day forecast period. But that won’t last, and after a cold front passes through in the evening will be right back to the chill of March by Saturday, with wind, although it will be dry again after a rain shower threat (and maybe even a late-day thunderstorm) on Friday.
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain, but will start as snow and/or mix away from the South Coast. Brief minor accumulation of snow expected on colder surfaces. Highs 42-49. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind variable becoming NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow arriving except rain/mix South Coast, with minor accumulation possible, then changing to rain in all locations. Highs 43-50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady 43-50 evening, rising into the 50s overnight. Wind SE up to 10 MPH evening, SW 10-20 MPH overnight.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm early, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 22-26)
We will be vulnerable to unsettled weather at times during this 5-day period being near the border of cold air north and warm air to the south. Too early for specifics. But leaning toward March 23-24 and March 26 as the most vulnerable days for precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 27-31)
Look for drier weather much of this period, temperatures trending to above normal, but this remains a low confidence forecast at this point.

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73 Responses to Tuesday Forecast

  1. Mark says:

    Thanks TK. Repost from end of end of last blog…

    1.5” of snow here in Coventry, 31F, and still snowing. Nearly collapsed in shock when I looked out the window!

    https://i.postimg.cc/zDxXfNpG/77-CB3672-F1-BD-4-C48-9-D9-B-EA146-E664-C50.jpg

  2. JpDave says:

    Good morning and thank you TK.

    Still snowing here in JP, temp 34. Roof tops have a good solid coating, Ground
    is just barely starting to coat. Ground has been too warm.

  3. Vicki says:

    Thank you TK.

  4. Vicki says:

    Ditto Marks comment. I took a step back when I opened blinds. Looks lovely.

    But seriously? Only on the second day of home schooling and there is already a two hour delay? 😉

  5. Tom says:

    Thanks TK !

    No snow here, but I’m happy for Mark, JpDave and others. Nice surprise !!

  6. JpDave says:

    Still snowing here in JP. Near 1/4 inch on roof tops and cars, now a decent dusting/coating on the grassy surfaces.

  7. Dr. Stupid says:

    Woke up early to attempt to do some additional shopping and was surprised by the fresh coating of snow on the car. Made going to a few places a bit more calming. Seeing so many people waiting to get into the store, a lot wearing medical gloves… It is a bizarre experience. I’m glad stop and shop has instituted a special set of hours for customers 60 and over (6:00-7:30).

  8. Scott77 says:

    Thanks TK

  9. Tom says:

    Spring Equilux today (12 hrs daylight)

    3 days before vernal equinox and 3 days after autumnal equinox as atmosphere slightly bends sunlight.

  10. Tom says:

    The Friday potential warm surge …..

    I’m a bit leery of that wave of low pressure passing Thursday that will turn our winds NE behind it. I hope the Friday low has enough strength to it to push that warm surge back all the way through eastern Mass.

  11. WxWatcher says:

    Thanks TK.

    Tom Brady officially out in New England. Wow!

    • South shore Kid says:

      He is TB or LA . Pats didn’t want him they did not even try .

      • Dr. Stupid says:

        Agreed. Will be weird to see him in another jersey but bill just did not want him the past three years.

        • Philip says:

          Not many teams wanted him though. I understand his age, but still…

        • South shore Kid says:

          Absolutely DR . I’ve been following this I did think it would work on him returning but I also said I would not be surprised . BB is heartless & it was out there it was his decision & Kraft would not get involved . I think the pats look like fools for the way they treated him . Thanks for 20 years close the door on your way out please . I bet it’s LA better market For TB12

  12. Joshua says:

    From Europe, encouraging news on the coronavirus front. Strict and total lockdowns work: One week after Italy’s national lockdown, Italy has had 3 consecutive days with the same number of new cases. This means 5 days after lockdown numbers of new cases leveled off, consistent with typical incubation period of 3-5 days.

    I’m convinced we’ll see the numbers of new cases start to decline soon in Italy, France, and Spain. Granted, the numbers of new cases in these countries will still be in the thousands initially.

    The strict lockdowns do not have to stay in effect for months on end. 2-3 weeks of strict and total shutdown does the trick of flattening the curve enough to allow certain restrictions to be lifted. Of course, after that nations should resume activity gradually, with social distancing in place for several more weeks (restaurants at 50% capacity, for example; conferences and sporting events shuttered).

    • Vicki says:

      We have been being told this for weeks…..do we listen?

      • Philip says:

        Total lockdowns are a lot to ask as humans by nature don’t like to be in captivity even if for their own well being. I really hope this country doesn’t go down that road.

        • JpDave says:

          If not, the deaths will really mount up.

        • Vicki says:

          I saw a great post the other day.

          It said

          Your grandparents were called to go to war
          We are being called to sit on a couch
          We can do this

          I have a lot of words that I won’t post here for anyone who cannot stay home

          • South shore Kid says:

            With my wife’s health I so wish I could stay home . I’m very lucky that I do not have the added stress of possibly bring out of work but saying that where I work is the last place you want to be right now . I am very looking forward to Walsh’s update tonight .

  13. JpDave says:

    Snow has stopped here and what there was on the ground, roof tops etc has
    fully melted. Well, it was nice to look it.

  14. matt says:

    2020 has stunk, but as a true football fan I understand both brady and the Patriots. This day was gonna happen this year or next and when I saw the Patriots schedule for this season I had a good feeling brady was going to run to a team with an easier schedule. The patriots could have a loosing season they might not. They have 8 teams that are extremely potent

  15. JimmyJames says:

    Thanks TK
    Woke up to a coating of snow on the ground.

  16. South shore Kid says:

    If I were Kraft at last nights meeting I would have said Tommy hoes 3 years I’ll beat any offer & fire Bill you’ll have Josh as your new coach . Tommy I don’t want to see you go when 3 years is up let’s talk about some options for joining management. I say screw you Kraft & Bill how do you show 0 respect for him . Word is pats gave him a ridiculous low ball offer .

    • JpDave says:

      That’s the Patriots way. I HATE them! Kraft is a SCROOGE.
      Bill is reprehensible.

    • Sue says:

      I say Kraft and BB are pretty intelligent people and most likely have good reason for their decisions. It was time. Thank you Tom, best of luck in your future endeavors.

  17. Vicki says:

    I was asked to share this. It is advice from folks from our Boston hospitals and parents. TK has said if can be shared.

    A post from Boston Hospital folks….names are below.

    “As there is so much confusion, misinformation and denial on social media about the coronavirus we hope to explain, in plain language, why the experts see this as such an emergency. Many people are reading the claim online that this virus is a lot like the viruses that cause colds, and that if you get it, it will probably just seem like a bad cold and you are very unlikely to die. Depending on who you are, this may be true, but there is more to this story that is key to our outcome as a community.

    This is a coronavirus that is new to the human population. Although it is related to the viruses that cause colds, and acts a lot like them in many ways, nobody has ever been exposed to this before, which means nobody has any immunity to it.

    The virus is now moving explosively through the human population, spreading through respiratory secretions and 10 times more contagious that the flu or cold. Although many people will recover, about 20% will wind up with a serious pneumonia that will require hospitalization. Some will be so ill from the pneumonia that they will die. We estimate this may be 2-3%, but it is higher in Italy’s experience, partially because the healthcare system was overwhelmed so rapidly. In those over age 70, the death rate is 8-20%. So if a child catches it on a playdate, they can easily transmit it to their grandmother as easily as touching the same doorknob or countertop.

    Scientists measure the spread of an epidemic by a number called R0, or “R naught.” That number is calculated this way: for every person who develops the illness, how many other people do they give it to before they are cured (or dead) and no longer infectious? The R0 for coronavirus appears to be a number close to 3 – an extremely frightening number for such a deadly disease.

    Suppose you catch the virus. You will give it to 3 other people, and they will each give it to three others, and so forth. Here is how the math works, where you, the “index case,” are the first line:
    1
    3
    9
    27
    81
    243
    729
    2,187
    6,561
    19,683
    59,046
    177,147
    531,441
    1,594,323
    4,782,969
    14,348,907

    So, in just 15 steps of transmission, the virus has gone from just one index case to 14.3 million other people. Those 15 steps might take only a few weeks. With school out and lots of playdates, maybe less. The first person may be young and healthy Brookline child, but many of those 14 million people will be old and sick, and they will likely die because they got a virus that started in one person’s throat.
    R0 is not fixed – it can be lowered by control measures. If we can get the number below 1, the epidemic will die out. This is the point of the quarantines and social distancing, but we are not doing it fast enough.

    In the US, we have to slow down the virus. American hospitals, Boston hospitals, have limited resources. We have a fixed number of ventilators and an impending calamity on our hands. Our Italian critical care colleagues have shared with us that they simply do not have enough resources (ventilators, physicians and nurse, critical care beds), and are forced to choose who lives and dies based on old tenets of wartime triage. Older patients do not even get a ventilator and die of their pneumonia. These are decisions nobody should have to face, and we are only 11 days behind Italy’s fate. Their hospitals are quite advanced, and we are no better in Boston. As doctors, we are desperately trying to prepare for the onslaught of patients in the coming weeks. It is already beginning. This is an opportunity for you as the district leadership the time to be aggressive and help us fight this by “Flattening the Curve”.

    We implore you, as a group of Boston’s doctors preparing to fight this, to help us. Please send a new email to ALL the Brookline school district families. Social distancing is painful. We know that kids have cabin fever, they are pleading to see their friends, they may have birthday parties coming up or special events they have been looking forward to. All of us need to work and childcare is a big worry. But we need to overcome these issues and boredom for the coming weeks so that we can survive this with as few deaths as possible. What does that mean?

    1) No playdates, not even 1:1.
    2) No small gatherings, no meetings between a couple families, even for birthday parties.
    3) Avoid trampoline parks, climbing gyms, restaurants, movie theaters, anything in an enclosed area. Many of these places are advertising increased cleaning and hygiene. This is not sufficient! Do not go.
    4) Cancel planned vacations for the next month. Avoid airline travel that is not an emergency. Many airlines and rental agencies are offering penalty free cancellations.
    5) Stay at home as much as possible. Work from home if you possibly can. You may have to go buy groceries and medicine, of course, but make the trips quick and purposeful.
    6) Wash your hands thoroughly after you have been in public places, for a full 20 seconds, soaping up thoroughly and being sure to get between the fingers.
    7) Please avoid disseminating social media claims that the situation is not serious or is being exaggerated. This is a national crisis and conveying misinformation to your friends and family may put their lives in danger.

    Thank you for taking the time to read this and stay safe and healthy in the coming weeks.”

    Respectfully,
    Erika Rangel, MD, Director of Surgical Critical Care, Brigham and Women’s Faulkner Hospital
    Shawn Rangel, MD, Pediatric Surgery, Children’s Hospital Boston
    Asaf Bitton, MD, Executive Director Ariadne Labs and Internal Medicine, BWH
    Daniel O’connor, MD, Pediatrics, Longwood Pediatrics and Children’s Hospital Boston
    Beth O’connor, MD, Pediatrics, Roslindale Pediatrics
    Vandana Madhavan, MD, Clinical Director of Pediatric Infectious Disease, MGH
    Parag Amin, MD, Pediatrics, Centre Pediatrics
    Christy Cummings, MD, Neonatology, Children’s Hospital Boston
    Eric Bluman, MD, Orthopedic Surgery, BWH
    Trimble Augur, MD, Internal Medicine, Hebrew Rehabilitation Center
    Dasha Weir, MD, Pediatric gastroenterology
    Amy Evenson Warren, Transplant Surgery, BIDMC
    William Oldham, MD, PhD, Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, BWH
    James Kryzanski, MD, Neurosurgery, Tufts Medical Center
    Ben Zendejas-Mummert, MD, Pediatric Surgery, Children’s Hospital Boston
    Johanna Iturrino Moreda, MD, Gastroenterology, BIDMC
    David Berg, MD, Cardiology and Cardiac Critical Care, BWH
    Jennifer Crombie, MD, Hematology Oncology, BWH
    Jenifer Lightdale, MD, Chief of Pediatric Gastroenterology, U Mass Memorial Hospital
    Wayne Tworetzky, MD, Pediatric Cardiology, Children’s Hospital Boston
    Elaine Yu, MD, Endocrinology
    Jonathan Li, Infectious Disease
    Nancy Cho, MD, Surgical Oncology, BWH
    Eric Sheu, MD, Minimally Invasive Surgery, BWH
    Reza Askari, MD, Director, Surgical Critical Care, BWH
    Cindy Lien, MD, Internal Medicine and Palliative Care, BIDMC
    Hannah Parker, MD, OB/GYN
    Alysa E. Doyle, PhD, Center for Genomic Medicine, MGH
    Christopher Smith, MD, Internal Medicine, Charles River Medical Associates, Wellesley, MA
    Maya Greer, NP, Children’s Hospital Boston
    Rusty Jennings, MD, Pediatric Surgery, Children’s Hospital Boston
    Emily Oken, MD, Professor of Population Medicine, BWH
    Chinwe Ukomadu, MD, Head of Clinical Hepatology, Novartis
    Jennifer Kaufman, MD, Internal Medicine, BWH
    Ann Poduri, MD, MPH, Pediatric Neurology
    Susan Yehle Ritter, MD, Rheumatology
    Diego Martinucci, MD Psychiatry, Atrius Health
    Shih-Ning Liaw, MD, Pediatric Palliative Care, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute/Boston Children’s Hospital
    Wolfram Goessling, MD, Gastroenterology and Oncology, MGH
    Paola Daza, Pediatrics, MGH
    Juan Matute, Neonatology, MGH
    John Ross, MD, Internal Medicine, BWH
    Megan Sandel, MD, Pediatrics, Boston Medical Center
    Kathy Calvillo, MD, Surgery, BWH
    Christine Greco, MD, Anesthesia, Children’s Hospital Boston
    Niteesh Choudhry, MD, PhD, Internal Medicine, BWH and Harvard T.H. Chand School of Public Health
    Chandru Krishnan, MD, Ophthalmology, Tufts Medical Center
    Amy Ship, MD, Internal Medicine, Associate Director of Medical Education, Atrius Health
    Yen-Lin Evelyn Chen, MD, Radiation Oncology, MGH
    Daihung Do, MD, Dermatology, BIDMC
    Chloe Zera, MD, MPH, Maternal Fetal Medicine, BIDMC
    Alejandra Barrero-Castillero, MD, MPH, Neonatology, Children’s Hospital Boston
    Jesse Esch, MD, Pediatric Cardiology, Children’s Hospital Boston
    Alison Packard, MD, OB/GYN, MGH
    Vik Khurana, MD PhD, Chief Division of Movement Disorders, BWH
    Tu-Mai Tran, MD, MSc, Family Medicine, BMC
    Yu Liu, MD PhD, Internal Medicine, Bristol Myers Squibb
    Yih-Chieh Chen, MD
    Lily Li, MD, Allergy and Immunology, BWH

  18. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Afternoon all. Time for TK’s Thoughts of the Day…

    *COVID-19: I’m pleased with the preparation and execution by the gov’t and people in general. There are bumps to iron out. But I think we’re doing what we can. Some of it is learn as you go. I’ve had a lot of adjusting to do between work & home in the last several days, mainly to keep a large elderly population, including my mom, safe. And speaking of mom, she’s down to 11 treatments left, and still doing amazingly well. :)

    *TB12: Not surprised. And I’m fine with it. His choice and I respect that. All I can say is thank you TB12 for the memories and being a class act, and good luck wherever you go (except when you play against New England .. haha).

    *Wx: No really new thoughts since I wrote the discussion above. Still feel that some areas may acquire measurable snow on Thursday. There will be some chilly air around as that wave goes by. But on Friday, BIG turn-around. No high to the north to hold the cold wedge in. Strong low pressure passing to the north will indeed allow the warm air to scour out the chill and I think upper 60s to around 70 is a very good possibility on Friday, even if it stays mainly cloudy. If we ever broke out into sunshine, lower to middle 70s would result. And just as sharp as the warm-up is, the cool-down after it will be as well. It may remain in the upper 30s interior higher elevations on Sunday. And next week, can’t rule out some flakes flying again at some point.

    • Vicki says:

      Good thoughts. I will always be grateful to Tom. What a franchise he built. And I do believe without him, it would not have happened. My thought is if he wanted to stay, everything possible would have been a good idea to keep him. So if it was indeed his decision, I wish him the very best because he gave us his very best. If it wasn’t his choice and If we ever really know truthfully that it was not, I will follow the team he ends up with.

  19. Philip says:

    Gov. Baker has no plans for a statewide “Shelter-in-Place” order. :-)

  20. Philip says:

    Logan officially recorded a Trace of snow today.

  21. Philip says:

    NYC is considering a “Shelter-in-Place” order.

    • Vicki says:

      I know of one company president who is presumptive who is still going to work I the city. And we wonder why we have to take what some call draconian steps.

      Tag line doesn’t need repeating but it is being proven by the second

  22. Woods Hill Weather says:

    Early thoughts for snow are coating-2 inches I-95 belt and 2-4 inches along and outside of 495 from around Route 2 northward, extending these bands pretty much NE-SW, leaving southeastern MA with just flakes then rain for Thursday morning.

    NAO & MJO combine to possibly bring another round of measurable snow next week.

  23. Captain Fantastic says:

    Adam Schefter is reporting that Tom Brady will be a Tampa Bay Buccaneer.

    Guess where Super Bowl LV is next February?

    • Joshua says:

      Somehow Brady doesn’t look like a pirate.

      I’m happy for him. He gets to go to a place that values offense. He’ll do well. Superbowl? Not so sure about that. We’ll see.

      I am glad we’re done with the Brady watch. I’m not bearish on the Patriots. I think Bill can create a competitive (10-6) team next year.

  24. Mark says:

    18z GFS continuing to advertise that coastal storm early next week and has sped up the timing with this latest run to Monday PM-Tuesday AM….

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020031718&fh=144

    This is a pretty cold run with snow to mix/rain back to snow for SE NE and all snow across the interior.

    12z Euro has this too but the storm is delayed a day, warmer, and less organized.

  25. Mark says:

    18z GFS Kuchera Snow for early next week:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2020031718&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    3″ Boston to 5″ Worcester and ramping up to a foot in the higher elevations of southern VT and NH.

    • Woods Hill Weather says:

      This scenario is very much on the table. Yes I know it’s way out, but the pattern supports this as a possible outcome.

  26. matt says:

    Well not a big crowd like that but I went to the beach today, the beach had a few locals on it, big thing that is not happening is carnival later this spring which is big here

  27. Joshua says:

    I’d be thrilled if we got some measurable spring snow early next week. Brighten things up a bit.

    The stimulus bill is being delayed by Rand Paul. I have plenty of libertarian friends. I respect libertarianism, even if I don’t support it. But at times like these we need government to intervene. Stock futures down almost 3% because of his stalling tactic and Mnuchin’s warning of 20% (temporary) unemployment. I find that hard to believe. But, I’m not in the Treasury or Labor Department, so I don’t know.

  28. Dr. Stupid says:

    A bunch of businesses wholesale laid off their employees. I think the reasoning is so the employees can collect unemployment. Boston Sports Clubs for example. This is so mind boggling. My job for the state is rotating people in and out (so I and five others work tomorrow and then we are out the next day and the people who weren’t in with us the day previous work the next day.) There will still be a not negligible amount of people in the building even with that.

    • Mark says:

      The CT Department of Labor said today that 20,000 people have applied for unemployment just between Friday and Monday. And that was before the restaurant/bar closure went into effect.

      Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods also closed today….that’s thousands more jobs there.

      • Woods Hill Weather says:

        It’ll be rough for a while but we will recover, and with many lessons learned, if we use them properly we can emerge from this (as a whole) better than we were going into it.

  29. Woods Hill Weather says:

    New post…