DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

Discussion…

The smoke plume from the western US wildfires finally reached the New England sky in full force yesterday after flirting with the region off and on during the last week. This smoke plume will remain over the region into the middle of the week and even when the sky is clear of clouds, it will have a very milky appearance, and impact the brightness of the sun. Down here at the surface, we will continue to have our own brush fire danger due to ongoing dryness and little or no rain in the forecast to help. We will also continue to see rough surf along the shoreline through tonight as a result of offshore Hurricane Paulette, which has moved away from Bermuda and will head out over the open Atlantic through midweek. So there is quite a bit going on despite the weather itself being quiet. Cool high pressure builds in today then settles off to the south during midweek as we warm up again. A cold front slices across the region Thursday night with no more than a passing shower as many areas likely remain dry. Another high pressure area builds toward the region from Canada at the end of the week, and it’s becoming pretty certain that all of the remnant tropical moisture from Hurricane Sally in the Gulf of Mexico will pass to the south of our area.

Details…

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 65-72. Dew point near 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear except high level smoke and ground level fog patches. Lows 45-52. Dew point lower 40s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 70-77. Dew point rising to lower 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear except high level smoke and ground level fog patches. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle 50s. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke-filtered sun may be a bit brighter than previous days. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 55-62. Dew point briefly near 60 then falling to lower 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-69. Dew point lower 50s to upper 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Dew point falling to upper 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Dew point upper 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

Expecting high pressure to continue to dominate for most of this period with dry weather and temperatures warming to near to above normal. A trough and frontal system from the west may bring clouds and a shower threat late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

The obligatory watching for tropical systems will continue, but right now it looks like that threat will be largely absent for this region, and after a threat of some shower activity around to start the period, the general pattern will continue to be one governed by high pressure and generally dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – September 15 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Discussion…

The final full week of summer is here. We’ll have a few warmer days and a few cooler days, almost an even split, but you can’t evenly split 7 days, so I’ll let you be the judge of which days get the warmer and which get the cooler. One thing we won’t have a lot of: rain. Going with a miss-scenario for the remnant moisture from Sally (Gulf of Mexico tropical system), our only shot at rain is brief and with a cold front passing by Thursday night or early Friday. Other notes, Hurricane Paulette (passing near Bermuda early this week) will stir up the seas and some large swells and rough surf will be reaching our coastline over the next few days, increasing the rip current risk, and also resulting in some splash-over, especially near high tides. In addition, we’ll have a higher fire danger with some breezy conditions at times and the ongoing drought. Also, some of the smoke from the wildfires out West will again visit our upper atmosphere and result in a hazy look to the sky at times, which can lead to more colorful sunrises and sunsets too.

Details…

TODAY: Lots of clouds into mid morning then increasing sunshine. Highs 73-80. Dew point falling middle 60s to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45 generally northwest of the I-95 belt, 45-52 elsewhere. Dew point falling to 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Dew point lower 40s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point rising to lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-69. Dew point lower 50s to upper 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

Expecting high pressure to dominate with dry weather for the entire period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal to start, then a warm-up.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

Continuing to watch the early to mid part of the period for possible rainfall, but trends have a little drier look now. Will continue to monitor that pattern as well as watch for any tropical activity off the US East Coast as the Atlantic is rather active at this time. This period may very well end up being dry as well.

C-19 Chat Post – September 14 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

Discussion…

A southerly air flow is sending increased low level moisture into the region today, and has been evident by an abundance of low clouds this morning. However, these clouds have come with enough spaces between to make it a partly sunny morning, which is exactly the wording used in today’s forecast from yesterday’s blog, and this will continue this afternoon as well, though the amount of cloud cover may vary from place to place. This more humid southerly flow is taking place in advance of a cold front, which is going to cross the region tonight with a band of heavier cloudiness but little in the way of any rainfall. Behind the front, it will take a little bit of time for the cooler air to arrive, waiting for a secondary trough Monday evening, so Monday itself will turn out to be a warmer day than today for many areas. You’ll notice a definite feel of fall Tuesday, even though it’s still technically summer. And that more summertime feel will be making a return during the middle of the week as high pressure sinks south of the region and we get into a warmer west to southwesterly air flow.

Details…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds early, then sun returning. Highs 73-80. Dew point falling middle 60s to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Dew point lower 40s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point rising to lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

A cold front passes by early September 18 followed by a push of drier air. Remnant moisture from a Gulf of Mexico tropical system will be passing by south of the region around September 19 so that will be something to watch, just in case it ends up a little further north and threatens the region with some unsettled weather, but at the moment I expect a miss and dry weather to dominate for the balance of this time period. Temperatures for the entire period averaging near to above normal but a cooler interlude around mid period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Watching the September 24-26 window for possible rainfall that may be potentially associated with some moisture from the tropics. Far from anything certain. Just a period to watch.

C-19 Chat Post – September 13 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

Discussion…

A very brief discussion so you can get out and enjoy great weekend weather! Our only chance of “rain”, really a brief shower if anything, comes Sunday night as a cold front passes. Otherwise it’s high pressure in control with dry weather for the next 5 days. The coolest days will be today and Tuesday.

Details…

TODAY: Sunny except a few passing clouds Cape Ann, South Shore, Cape Cod for a while this morning. Highs 65-72. Dew point rising to near 50. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds early, then sun returning. Highs 73-80. Dew point falling middle 60s to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Dew point lower 40s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

A cold front, current timing for early September 18, brings the only chance of any rainfall, and it will be a brief risk, otherwise high pressure continues to be dominant with dry weather and some temperature ups and downs, but overall temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

Dry weather continues to start this period then we watch for the risk of some rainfall during the September 24-26 window.

C-19 Chat Post – September 12 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

Discussion…

The tropical air mass that helped trigger some downpours yesterday is being pushed out of the region now as a cold front moves off to the south and high pressure begins to build in. It will be a transition day as we start with a lot of cloudiness and still somewhat high humidity, but the dry air will be moving in from north to south and the feel of the air will be vastly different by later today than it felt early this morning. The high pressure area that moves in will also be responsible for dry weather most of the weekend, holding off the next shower threat from an approaching cold front until Sunday night. Another dry air mass arrives early next week as a repeating pattern brings another Canadian high pressure area in.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning including pockets of drizzle. Increasing sun north to south afternoon. Highs 65-72. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH

TONIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog in low elevation areas (valleys, swamps, bogs). Lows 43-50. Dew point lower 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point rising to near 50. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds early, then partly cloudy. Highs 73-80. Dew point falling middle 60s to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

One high pressure area sits over the region September 16 then sinks to the south and will be replaced by another from Canada by the end of the period. Between these a frontal boundary will cross the region sometime September 18 and may delay its departure for a time September 19, bringing our only shot at unsettled weather during this 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

Overall pattern generally features zonal west to east flow at upper levels, high pressure in control most of the time with moisture-starved fronts providing air mass changes. We need to continue to eye the Atlantic for tropical activity as well.

C-19 Chat Post – September 11 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

Discussion…

In a drought, a modest rain event is a “big” rain event I guess. Given the pre-chatter about the one coming up today, you’d think we were about to get a flooding deluge. Well, that may not be entirely that far from the truth. However, a deluge over a relatively small percentage of the area for a relatively short amount of time, most of which runs off into the drainage system, is not going to do a whole lot to fix your drought situation. That is what we’ll be dealing with for the most part. But the rain may be heavy enough, in localized areas, to cause flooding. This renders the often-said phrase “any rain is welcomed rain” somewhat false. We’ll see how much that ends up applying today and this evening as a semi-feeble tongue of tropical moisture becomes the transfer point for the energy of a cold front heading southeastward into New England. It’s entirely possible that this energy transfer not only takes the legs (and ability to produce significant showers) away from the approaching front but then puts the new rainfall so far to the south that it barely hits the South Coast before departing. I’m opting for a scenario a little less dramatic than that, and this forecast will call for showers and maybe a band or 2 of downpours in a few locations from about mid afternoon to mid evening. Regardless of how many showers are on the frontal boundary itself, that boundary will indeed push through here tonight, and while some cloudiness may linger into the day Friday behind it, it will clear out and we’ll be in an entirely different, refreshing Canadian air mass, making the bulk of Friday feel different than today will. And this is good timing if you want dry weather for the weekend, because you’ll get dry weather for most of it, certainly Saturday as high pressure moves right over the region. On Sunday as the high slips offshore and it starts to become more humid, along with more cloudiness, we’ll have another front approaching, but over the last several days I’ve noted a slightly slower and weaker trend with this system, and I still feel this is the case, so that shower activity will be later in the day and evening and limited. Another batch of drier air will arrive behind this front by Monday.

Details…

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Showers most likely near the South Coast this morning. Scattered to general showers anywhere during this afternoon. Any showers may be heavy and a few thunderstorms are also possible. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with slight chance of thunderstorms evening. A lingering shower possible overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point falling from near 70 to middle 60s. Wind shifting from S to W to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start including a slight risk of a passing light shower. Sun and passing clouds by late morning on. Temperatures steady 63-70. Dew point falling from middle 60s into the 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog lowest elevations. Lows 43-50. Dew point falling into 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point near 50. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers afternoon, favoring late-day. Highs 71-78. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures steady 63-70. Dew point falling from lower 60s to upper 40s. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

A large area of high pressure will govern the weather for a few days here, with us on the northwesterly air flow side and cooler/drier September 15, then as the high slips to the south we warm up September 16 and 17, but another cold front, based on current timing, comes through without much rainfall but a shift back to cooler/drier for the end of the period as a new, even larger high pressure area builds in from Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

Overall pattern generally features zonal west to east flow at upper levels, high pressure in control most of the time with moisture-starved fronts providing air mass changes. On other words, the same overall pattern. However, as previously stated, we do need to keep an eye out for any tropical activity off of or approaching the East Coast.

C-19 Chat Post – September 10 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

High humidity does more than make the air feel sticky. This morning it has a lot of the region enshrouded in fog and low clouds, which will dissipate as the sun climbs higher into the sky. However some of the low cloudiness may hang on longer in some valley and coastal areas as the temperature / dew point stay closer together lower in those locations. Also, a fan of higher cloudiness above will limit the sun’s power so the process may be slower anyway. The bottom line is that today will not be as sunny a day as yesterday was. Also, other than parts of far southern New England under a blanket of clouds late yesterday, some may have noticed a hazier appearance to the sky later yesterday leading to an atypical sky hue at sunset. That was caused by smoke in high altitudes from western US wildfires. This is not highly unusual at all for our region during fire seasons of both Canada and the western US, and we will probably see more of this in the weeks ahead. But getting back to local weather, the high humidity will be hanging around through Thursday. I am going to undercut guidance rainfall coverage and numbers and just go for a few areas of showers during the day Thursday, favoring areas south of I-90, and a broken to scattered band of showers and possible thunderstorms that crosses the region from northwest to southeast at the end of the day and early at night from a cold front passing through the region. This will put an end to the higher humidity for a couple days, along with bringing cooler air into the region for Friday and Saturday. While clouds may linger Friday morning, especially for southern areas, expect plenty of sun to eventually dominate and another mainly sunny day Saturday – great for late summer outdoor activities. By Sunday, the humidity comes back a little bit as we are on the “return-flow” side of high pressure and another frontal system approaches from the west. Once again I believe a lot of our computer guidance may be overdoing the rainfall potential here, and also moving the front in a little too quickly, so my forecast will reflect weaker and slower timing – basically Sunday looks not-too-bad to me at the moment. But I can’t say I have the highest confidence in that forecast so please check for updates.

TODAY: Fog and low clouds for many areas to start, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE to S increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible favoring areas south of I-90 through early afternoon. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly northwest of I-95. Highs 77-84. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible through late evening. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy morning with most clouds over southern locations, then mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Dew point middle to lower 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog lowest elevations. Lows 40-45 interior lower elevations, 45-50 elsewhere. Dew point falling to lower 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Dew point 40s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Dew point upper 40s to lower 40s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers, favoring late day or night. Highs 71-78. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

High pressure builds in and brings cooler/drier air through mid period followed by a warm up as the high center shifts offshore late period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

Upper pattern generally zonal (west to east) supporting a return to mostly above normal temperatures with very limited chances for any rainfall.

C-19 Chat Post – September 9 2020

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

Sounds like a broken record but high pressure controls more than anything else and the drier than average pattern goes on with no end in sight. Only a cold front will break the monotony as it switches our air mass from a warmer and more humid one to a drier one sometime between Thursday night and Friday morning, and other than the shower or thunderstorm that may accompany that frontal passage, you won’t find any other rain in this 5-day forecast.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80 coast, 80-85 inland. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 77-84. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible through late evening. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 67-74. Dew point falling through 50s into 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog lowest elevations. Lows 40-45 interior lower elevations, 45-50 elsewhere. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes at the shoreline.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

High pressure should hold the next system off through most of September 13 with a shower chance coming late-day or nighttime. This system probably falls apart over the region September 14 and another one sweeps through the next day with a risk of a few showers, clearing the air out with a Canadian air mass arriving for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

Zonal flow, low amplitude, with a reinforcing cooler shot possible to start this period followed by a return to warmer than average weather as we head toward the Autumnal Equinox. Dry pattern continues. Speculating that much of the region may be classified in severe drought by this time.