COMMENTARY
If you know me well now you hear me chopping down weather apps, and rightfully so as it turns out. I have already run into several people I know that have changed plans or asked me if they should change plans based on what “my weather app says…” … No, no, no. This is not good. It’s not going to rain for the next 3 days, 5 days, 7 days, 2 years. Please. Let’s find a way to learn how to use these things with discretion, or just stop looking at them until the information can be refined and defined. It’s as good as random right now, and so obviously focused on the “biggest” potential as to make it look like that’s the only weather that is to be expected. Count the hours of rain vs. the hours of no rain even during the recent unsettled stretch (say, the last week). You’ll find dry hours will win out, and in many areas, significantly. An hour’s worth of downpours can be a big pain in the butt if it’s right in the middle of your cookout or beach day, and there’s not a whole lot we can do about it other than prepare for the chance, and have a place to wait it out, and a recovery plan if necessary. But that’s nature. It’s always been that way. “Way back when” we didn’t even have a live radar on our phone, or a phone at all if you go back far enough, to tell us there was a shower or thunderstorm entering the neighborhood. And now we do, and it seems like the technology making that possible is also struggling to deliver the correct message to the “weather consumer”. But there’s really no way to fix this other than to spread the word, as I often do. Ditch the apps, or use them wisely, and listen to the professionals – please! No, we’re not always going to be right either. But we’re more valuable. You can bet on that. 🙂
DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)
Hello July! This month starts off with kinda-sorta-but-not-really the same pattern we’ve had in June. The pattern is “unsettled” but if you read my commentary above then you know I’m going to point out we’ll have plenty of “rain-free time”, and we will. In fact, I think cancelled bbq’s and fireworks and pool parties and beach days will be the exception rather than the rule from today right through the holiday and even the day after (aka “day 5”). This is how I think it’s going to break down, first on the broad scale, then a little more pinpointed as you read on in this discussion, followed by the detailed forecast. First, the marine layer made great strides into our region from the east overnight and much of the region started the day blanketed by stratus clouds with areas of fog, and even a few patches of light drizzle. Parts of the South Coast and some western portions of the WHW forecast area were excepted from this, starting the day with sun. Elsewhere, the rising sun will burn this layer off as the morning goes on. You’ll notice where sun is already shining and where it emerges that the hazy look is back, and this is due to the eastern side of a wildfire smoke plume that has been to our west for the last couple days and finally pulled eastward by a bit more westerly wind in the atmosphere. It will be around for the weekend, and enough so that at least for today the air quality will be compromised, so keep this in mind if you have outdoor activities planned. As we head through Sunday and Monday, the smoke plume should thin out and slowly recede to the north. The weak high pressure ridge causing out west wind to blow the smoke into the region at this time will shift to more of a southerly flow as a low pressure trough crosses the region Sunday through Tuesday. This will help slowly disperse the smoke, but it will bring back the chance of showers and thunderstorms that you may have to dodge during your weekend / holiday plans. But again, this is not going to “ruin” this summer period of time. You just have to have a plan and be ready to use it. Right now, I think disturbances coming through the region in association with this trough will bring several waves of showers to us on Sunday through early Tuesday. While guessing the timing on these waves is a gamble, current leaning is #1 early to mid morning Sunday, #2 early to mid afternoon Sunday, #3 late Sunday night to early hours Monday, #4 midday Monday, #5 late night Monday to early hours Tuesday. During the day on Tuesday, Independence Day, I’m leaning toward an isolated shower or thunderstorm in a few areas but less of a chance overall for the region as the trough axis begins to shift eastward, beyond the region. By Wednesday, that feature is gone, and weak high pressure brings fair weather and July warmth.
TODAY: Low clouds/fog many areas early, then increasing sun but mixed with clouds and haze/smoke. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s. Wind E-SE early shifting to SE-S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Haze/smoke. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodic showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog early. Haze/smoke. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising to near 70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Haze/smoke. Lows 64-71. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind S under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Partly sunny. A possible shower or thunderstorm. Highs 77-84. Dew point falling slightly to lower 60s. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)
Unsure of timing of next frontal boundary and disturbance, later July 7 or July 8, for a shower/thunderstorm chance, but the overall pattern during this period looks more settled and seasonable with weak westerly or zonal flow dominating.
DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)
This period will bring us to mid July and the mid point of meteorological summer with a likely continuation of a weak zonal flow pattern, fairly seasonable temperatures overall, a lack of sustained significant heat, and a couple shower and thunderstorm chances which can’t obviously be detailed so far in advance.