1:58AM

Happy Labor Day 2011!

This won’t be the best of the 3 days here in the Boston area, as clouds will probably end up ruling, and there is the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms as well during the day. However, it still looks like most of the shower activity will hold off until day’s end or tonight, so the day will not be a washout by any stretch. The frontal system responsible for the increased chance of showers today and tonight will be slowing down to a crawl and becoming stationary over the region, and will hang around right through the middle of the week. This will allow some of the tropical moisture associated with Tropical Depression Lee (over the Gulf Coast States), to move up along the front and produce periods of showers during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. I still expect Hurricane Katia to take a path northwestward, passing southwest of Bermuda, eventually turning north between Bermuda and the US East Coast, then northeast, passing well offshore of New England late in the week. Katia will do 2 things, one positive and one negative. The negative impact will be the large ocean swells and rough surf that will impact the coast later in the week. This will result in dangerous rip currents, and possible splashover in areas prone to it. The positive impact will be that the storm will serve to pull the stationary front and wet weather out of here later Thursday or Friday, introducing a very nice period of weather in time for next weekend. Hopefully this timing works out.

Boston Area Forecast for the next 7 days…

TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly this afternoon. Warm and humid. High 80-85. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting to 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Mild and muggy. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely. Mild and muggy. High 72-77. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with episodes of showers. Patchy fog. Mild and muggy. Low 64-69. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Warm and humid. High 75-80. Wind variable 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Chance of showers. Low 66. High 76.

FRIDAY: Clearing. Low 59. High 77.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 72.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 75.

10:14AM

About half way through the long weekend for most people! Hope you are all having a good weekend, whatever your plans are…

No big changes, so we’ll reserve a full discussion for a Monday morning post, which will take the place of “The Week Ahead” that usually appears on Sunday night. I will quick update later today if needed, otherwise look for a full update early Monday.

In the mean time, the latest Boston Area Forecast…

THIS AFTERNOON: Variably cloudy. Warm and humid. High 81-86 except 70s to 80 at some coastal areas that face south. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Mild and muggy. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid. High 77-82. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to S.

TUESDAY: Showers likely. Low 62. High 72.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. AM showers. Low 55. High 70.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 58. High 72.

FRIDAY: Chance of showers. Low 58. High 68.

11:42AM

Boston Area Forecast…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly cloudy.  Warmer and more humid. High 80-85 except 75-80 coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but a sea breeze in some coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Mild and muggy. Low 62-67. Wind light SW.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Very warm and humid. High 83-88. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Mild and muggy. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid. High 77-82. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to S.

TUESDAY: Showers likely. Low 62. High 72.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. AM showers. Low 55. High 70.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 58. High 72.

FRIDAY: Chance of showers. Low 58. High 68.

It’s gonna beeeeeeeeeeee a really nice Labor Day Weekend for 2/3 of it (Saturday & Sunday), and so-so for the final day (Monday).

7:23PM

All that I spoke of in the last blog holds true… High pressure offshore pumps warmer and more humid air into the region as a cold front slowly edges its way toward the region, but probably takes until Monday to bring any threat of showers and storms to Metro Boston. There may be some isolated activity the other days well to the west and north of the city.

Looking into next week… The front that arrives Monday may be slow to leave Tuesday, which may end up showery. Hopefully the front pushes far enough offshore for a drier, cooler Wednesday, but I’m just not sure of this yet.

Tropical Topics… Hurricane Katia will be moving west to west northwest over the open waters of the Atlantic with an eventual path north of the Caribbean and south of Bermuda. The very early feeling is that Katia will never have a major impact on the US Mainland, other than some large ocean swells and possible rough surf toward the end of next week. This is by no means an all-clear on any East Coast threat as it is FAR too early to be certain of her eventual path. I do think that in the short term it is a lock that Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico is going to have a far greater impact on the US, as it is expected to bring tremendous rainfall amounts over the next few days to Louisiana and Alabama (with major flooding likely, including in the New Orleans area, where 10 to 20 inches of rain may occur). Whether or not any of this moisture eventually makes its way to New England remains to be seen.

The latest Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Clear start then areas of low clouds forming. Cool. Low 54-59. Wind light SE.

SATURDAY: Any low clouds dissipating by mid morning, mostly sunny late morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Warmer and more humid. High 80-85 except 75-80 coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but a sea breeze still possible near the coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Mild and muggy. Low 62-67. Wind light SW.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Warm and humid. High 82-87. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Mild and muggy. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid. High 77-82. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to S.

TUESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 62. High 72.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 70.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 58. High 72.

FRIDAY: Chance of showers. Low 58. High 68.

9:21PM

If you were lucky enough to start your Labor Day Weekend today, as I was, then you enjoyed a great day if you were outside. I spent some time at Hampton Beach NH, where recently the water temperature had dumped from near 70 to the upper 50s, after the passage of Irene. But today, with an onshore wind, the water temperature rebounded somewhat, and though I did not look at the observed temperature, I figure by feel it was back to the lower 60s. It wasn’t a totally sunny day as there were areas of high & middle clouds moving through, but it was very nice.

Another nice day is expected Friday, but cooled by an onshore wind. Some low clouds may be present along the coast to start the day but most of them will burn off rather quickly once the sun comes up.

As for the actual Labor Day Weekend (Saturday-Monday), expect humidity to increase Saturday and Sunday with high pressure off the coast. A frontal system from the northwest will be very slow to  move into the region, reaching western and northern New England Sunday but hanging out there until it finally moves into southeastern New England on Labor Day. That day will bring the greatest chance of showers and storms to the Boston area.

Detailed Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low clouds may form near the coast. Low 53-58. Wind E-NE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny through mid morning with any low clouds dissipating, then mostly sunny late morning on. High from near 70 immediate shoreline to 74-79 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 54-59. Wind S 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 80-85. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. High 80-85. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 75-80. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 59. High 71.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 59. High 73.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 70.

3:43AM

High pressure north of New England will provide fair weather with coolest air at the coast the next 2 days, before all areas warm back up Saturday. A frontal system moving very slowly into the region Sunday-Monday will provide focus for higher humidity and some shower activity. With luck, most of the shower activity will hold off until Monday.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Partly sunny this morning. Mostly sunny this afternoon. High 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 55-60. Wind E 5-10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 70-75. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 61. High 80.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 60. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 70.

1:38AM

High pressure will continue to be the dominant player in the weather during the next several days as the quiet weather continues for the last day of August and the early days of September. Nice weather will carry into a good part of the Labor Day Weekend.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 80-85 but cooling back through the 70s along the coast in the afternoon. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to E during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 55-60. Wind light E.

THURSDAY: Sun mixed with clouds. High 75-80. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 59. High 76.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 57. High 80.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Chance of showers. Low 63. High 79.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 69.

9:14PM

Short and sweet tonight. High pressure dominates most of this week with fair weather being the rule. Weak fronts pass by later Wednesday and sometime early in Labor Day Weekend, based on current timing.

In the tropics, a new system is organizing far out in the Atlantic and is many days away from being any potential threat to land areas.

Forecast for the Boston Area…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 55-60 coast and Boston, 50-55 elsewhere. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 80-85. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 55-60. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 78-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 80.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 61. High 79.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers late. Low  62. High 83.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers early. Low 62. High 81.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 77.

11:50PM

Irene thoughts and summary… Though the storm itself has departed, other than leftover gusty winds tonight, Irene is not done impacting the region. There are many people that have perceived this storm to be lame, or wimpy, and that may be at least partly due to the media’s overall message that doom was descending upon all of us. Call it what you will, or blame who you will. I am not really looking to editorialize on this blog. The facts are, though some areas did see tree damage and coastal flooding, a large part of eastern New England dodged a bullet, not including the nearly half million that lost  power during the storm, many of whom are still without and may be for another day to few days. Peak wind gusts were about as expected in eastern areas, 45-75 MPH (a little stronger in some of the higher elevations such as Blue Hill in Milton, which gusted just over 80 MPH). There were swaths of the Boston area that largely escape the strongest winds, with their peak gusts landing in the lower range above. Again, these are the lucky ones. West of the storm track, which was across far western New England, was where the real trouble was. Some of you may have seen some of the pictures out of VT and parts of NH tonight. The flooding there is very serious, and in some places very damaging, due to the heavy rainfall that was forecast to fall and did fall to the west of the storm’s path. Significant impact was also seen in the Mid Atlantic down to eastern North Carolina. The death toll from the storm is around 20 (don’t have an official number as of the writing of this).

Elsewhere in the tropics… With Irene in the main picture today, Tropical Storm Jose formed almost unnoticed near Bermuda today, but this weak storm will remain over water as it moves to the north and will never be a factor in the weather along the US East Coast. A new very organized tropical wave that came off Africa has been passing south of the Cape Verde Islands in the same region that Irene formed, and will likely become the next named system (Katia) early this coming week, but will be over far open ocean for many days to come.

What’s coming up this week in the Boston area? The gusty winds of tonight will be diminishing toward morning but there will still be some breezy conditions into the day Monday between the departing Irene and a high pressure area moving in. Expect a much drier, bright day Monday. Nice weather should rule on Tuesday as well but we may see some clouds as a weak disturbance slides north of the region. Another high pressure area builds in Wednesday with nice weather. We then close the book on August.

As September begins, it looks like high pressure will be in general control for at least the first couple days of the month Thursday & Friday. It’s a bit early to really be focusing on Labor Day Weekend at this time, so I’ll take a stab at it briefly on the extended outlook, but don’t pay much attention. We’ll handle the forecast for the final holiday weekend of summer 2011 as we get to midweek.

I hope everybody that has suffered some kind of impact and misfortune from Irene can recover quickly.

The forecast for the Boston area for the week ahead…

OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Cooler and drier. Low 55-60. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing toward dawn.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Warm and dry. High 80-85. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Mild and dry. Low 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Mild and dry. High 77-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 80.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 82.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 62. High 80.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 84.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 81.

7:50PM

TONIGHT: Breaking clouds followed by complete clearing. Humid. Low 65-7o. Wind W 15-35 MPH with stronger gusts possible over higher elevations, diminishing overnight.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Warm and less humid. High 80-85. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 58-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. High 74-79. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 56. High 78.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 83.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 63. High 82.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 84

2:50PM

Tropical Storm Irene’s center is moving NNE across west central MA at this time. Top sustained winds near the center, probably above the ground, are near 60 MPH. Widespread strong and gusty winds continue quite some distance from the center of the storm. Some heavy rain continues on the north and west side of the storm while much of the rain has ended to the south and east. Irene will continue NNE to NE into and across northern New England through tonight and be exiting North America via the Canadian Maritimes on Monday.

What to expect from here on…

11:35AM

As of 11AM, the center of Tropical Storm Irene is over western CT, heading for west central MA on a north northeast track, and will be moving into northern New England during the afternoon from the VT/NH border eventually into Maine. Top sustained winds are down to 60 MPH but with higher gusts, and this large wind field still extends several hundred miles out from the center.

9:50AM

As of 9AM, Irene is now a tropical storm with top winds near 65 MPH and is centered near Coney Island NY, starting to accelerate to the north northeast. Irene continues to have a very widespread wind field of tropical storm force winds and hurricane force gusts. The center will cross western Long Island and western to north central CT, west central to central MA (passing close to Springfield) then up across southwestern NH where it will cut across central NH and into and across Maine by tonight, weakening and beginning to lose tropical characteristics while accelerating in forward speed.

Specifics…

Rain: Expect the heaviest and steadiest rain west of the storm track with more showery but still at times very heavy rain to the east.The heaviest areas of rain will lift north northwest across the Boston area through 1PM. Expect rainfall amounts 1-4 inches east of the track, 4-8 inches to the west, with locally heavier amounts. River flooding most likely in the heavy rain areas to the west. Rivers east of the center will not likely flood and should handle the rainfall fairly well. Poor drainage flooding will be a bigger concern in these areas during and shortly after the heavier rain periods.

Wind: East of the storm track, winds mostly from the southeast to south, often tropical storm force, top gusts 40-60 MPH with locally stronger, except gusts around hurricane force possible along the South Coast and some of the higher elevations. Strongest winds will occur in the next few hours, but will strengthen again as southwest to west winds behind the storm late today and this evening. West of the track, expect northeast to north winds 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, but strongest winds there will be northwest to west behind the storm, 25-40 MPH with stronger gusts, likely over 50 MPH for a period of time Sunday evening. Considerable tree damage is expected from this event, because it has been a while since such a storm, and the ground is saturated from heavy rain before the storm, making the soil softer around bases of trees.

Storm Surge: 4 to potentially 7 foot storm surge flooding on the South Coast, especially in the bays, with the morning high tide. A second surge with the evening high tide and may be similar to the morning surge. East-facing coastal areas will see a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet with the morning high tide as the winds will be most onshore at that time. By the evening tide, the winds will be blowing more from the land toward the water so storm surge flooding will not be an issue, but splash-over flooding may still occur due to the very rough seas and waves.

Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible in heavier rain bands this through early afternoon, especially from the Boston area and Merrimack Valley to southeastern MA including Cape Cod and the Islands. These are usually very weak and short-lived, but still significant enough to add to wind damage. These kinds of tornadoes are spawned from low level wind sheer (change of speed and/or direction of wind with height) that is set up when friction near the ground slows the wind speed and turns it more toward the center of the hurricane and winds above the ground are fast-flowing and more parallel to the storm center.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Overcast through early afternoon with numerous tropical showers including some downpours. The heaviest rain in the Boston area should occur through about 1PM. Mostly cloudy mid through late afternoon with additional tropical showers, heavy at times. Brief sun may appear between showers. Mild with tropical humidity. High 70-75. Wind SE increasing to 25-45 MPH gusting 40-60 MPH, occasionally stronger, shifting more to S and eventually SW during the day. Isolated tornadoes are possible from mid morning through early afternoon.

TONIGHT: Rain and showers ending from south to north with breaking clouds before midnight and clearing overnight. Still mild and very humid. Low 65-70. Wind W 15-35 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH, still may reach around 50 MPH over exposed higher elevations, diminishing somewhat overnight.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Warm and still humid. High 80-85. Wind W 15-30 MPH early, diminishing slowly.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 58-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. High 74-79. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 56. High 78.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 83.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 63. High 82.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 84

8:19PM

As expected, the center of Irene is back over water, east of Virginia Beach, as of 8PM. I am going to continue to forecast the center spending most of its time over warm water just off the Delmarva/NJ coast tonight, making landfall late tomorrow morning in western Long Island before cutting across western CT and central MA into NH during the day.

Specifics…

Rain: Tropical downpours all areas tonight, heaviest steady rain west of the storm track, more showery east of it. Rainfall amounts 1-4 inches east of the track, 4-8 inches to the west, with locally heavier amounts. River flooding most likely in the heavy rain areas to the west. Flash flooding problems may occur anywhere when heavy rain occurs over a short period of time.

Wind: East of the storm track, winds mostly from the southeast to south, often tropical storm force, top gusts 40-60 MPH with locally stronger, except gusts around hurricane force likely along the South Coast and some of the higher elevations (Blue Hill, for example). The strongest winds should occur from shortly after dawn on Sunday until shortly after sunset Sunday evening, but strong gusts may continue as the wind shifts more to the west in areas that were east of the storm track well into the night and early Monday morning. West of the track, expect northeast to north winds 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, but strongest winds there will be northwest to west behind the storm, 25-40 MPH with stronger gusts, likely over 50 MPH for a period of time Sunday evening. Considerable tree damage is expected from this event, because it has been a while since such a storm, and the ground is saturated from heavy rain before the storm, making the soil softer around bases off trees.

Storm Surge: Same as previous, 4 to potentially 8 foot storm surge flooding at the times of high tide, especially south facing bay areas along the South Coast. Coastal flooding is likely elsewhere, but not as severe.

Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible in heavier rain bands especially Sunday morning and midday and especially over eastern and southeastern Massachusetts. These are usually very weak and short-lived, but still significant enough to add to wind damage. For more on the cause of these kinds of tornadoes, see previous entries.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Episodes of tropical showers, heavy at times. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog, possibly dense at times. Low 64-69. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH increasing to 15-35 MPH with higher gusts around dawn from south to north.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Tropical showers most numerous in the morning, likely heavy at times with a chance of thunderstorms as well. Brief intervals of sunshine may pop out between the downpours over the Boston area and points to the south. Mild with tropical humidity. High 70-75. Wind SE to S 25-45 MPH with gusts 40-60 MPH and even slightly higher, favoring higher elevations and coastal areas. Winds shift more SW to W during the afternoon. Isolated brief tornadoes possible through mid afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Rain and showers ending from south to north with breaking clouds following. Still mild and very humid. Low 65-70. Wind W 15-35 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH, still may reach around 50 MPH over exposed higher elevations.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Warm and humid. High 80-85. Wind W 15-30 MPH early, diminishing slowly.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 79.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 56. High 78.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 83.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 63. High 82.