Wednesday July 22 2020 Forecast

109 Comments

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 22-26)

We’ve been eyeing Wednesday & Thursday as two unsettled days this week. Still the case. A warm front will approach and slowly cross the region today and tonight. The main threat of showers (and risk of thunder) will be early to mid morning today and then a second batch will make a run at the region this evening. Any time between that there could be an isolated shower or storm developing, and the atmosphere’s set-up today is one where we do have to keep an eye on any isolated storms that form, as they have the potential to become super cell storms, which can carry a higher risk of producing damaging wind and/or larger hail. DO NOT expect this as any kind of outbreak as it won’t be that – but the risk is there so must watch. Thursday we will find ourselves in a soupy airmass with much higher humidity, and any sun that comes out will not only make it feel more uncomfortable but will also fuel the development of showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front. My initial thought is that the greatest threat for these will take place from the second half of the afternoon to the early evening and favor areas near and south of I-90. However, this does not mean that other areas will be immune to the threat, and everyone should be aware that storms may occur, and they could be strong. Once the front pushes through by early Friday morning, initially it won’t get that far to the south, and enough moisture coming along it will likely at least hold cloudiness in the region for a time during Friday, and even the threat of a few showers, especially in southern portions of the region. Expect clearing later Friday as high pressure pushes in, which will provide nice weather for Saturday as well. This high will sink to the south by Sunday and open the door for a spike in humidity and a bit of heat, but the shower and thunderstorm risk that appeared to be present for Sunday previously may hold off as the disturbance that would bring the threat may be slower-moving and not approach until at least later Sunday night…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and a slight risk of a thunderstorm through mid morning. Variably cloudy late morning on with a slight risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms. Increasingly humid. Highs 75-82 coastal areas as well as northeastern MA through southern NH, 80-87 south central MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW across southern areas by mid to late afternoon.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of a few showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring the southern half of central and eastern MA southward through eastern CT & RI especially mid afternoon on. Humid. Highs 83-90, cooler some South Coast locations. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely early from southern MA southward, with a chance of showers or thunderstorms to the north. Patchy fog forming. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH, but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms early.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with a risk of a passing shower. Decreasing clouds and increasing sun during the afternoon. Less humid. Highs 77-84. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler in some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 85-92, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 27-31)

A series of disturbances moving northwest to southeast across the region bring a daily opportunity for showers and thunderstorms July 27-29 with variable temperatures not departing all that far from normal overall. Uncertainty at this time for the July 30-31 period with medium range guidance split in vastly differing scenarios, one of which puts low pressure just south of the region and high pressure to the north – a cool/damp set-up, while another brings a drier westerly air flow in. The second scenario is favored based on climatology as well as a better performance by the model predicting it of late. This outlook is low confidence and subject to change.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 1-5)

Regardless of the scenario to end July, looking for a fairly zonal mid summer pattern, seasonably warm to hot weather and a couple shower and thunderstorm opportunities in the early days of August.

109 thoughts on “Wednesday July 22 2020 Forecast”

  1. Please note that I have made some adjustments to the middle period. It’s low confidence but there is enough “evidence” in guidance and my pattern analysis to make me unsure how next week plays out.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Picked up 0.06 inch of rain in an earlier shower.
    Getting more humid once again.

  5. The hottest day in Taunton history occurred nine years ago today when it hit 103. Hartford also had its all-time highest maximum at 103 as well.

    The last time it was 100 here was July 20, 2013. The temperature has hit 100 or greater 14 times in recorded Taunton weather, Of the 14 times, nine have happened in the 21st Century. It was 100 or greater three times in 2002 including back-to-back days on July 3-4.

    1. I remember that day well!

      We were camping in Myles Standish Forest. I had to take my daughter to the doctor for swimmers ear/ear infection. It was 90F by 9am. Obviously, a blazing hot afternoon. But, it was the night before that was the unreal warm, stuffy overnight with the highest dewpoints.

    2. I remember that well. But as everyone knows, I relate weather to life events and we have had several incredibly hot July 22nds.

    1. Gonzalo went deep to try to escape a dry dusty Saharan airmass but I think it’s going to suffer some damage before it escapes into hostile atmospheric conditions in the Caribbean.

    1. Pieces, I think, are coming together today out in far southwestern New England and points southwestward.

      Front turning winds N and NE sagging down into southwestern New England, where winds will eventually veer to east and southeast and looks like a period of sunshine for that area as well.

      I hope the slight area identified by spc doesn’t get hit too bad today.

  10. I have in and out sunshine right now. Quick peak at the latest HRRR wants to develop some of those isolated thunderstorms across western parts of interior MA and CT.

  12. Quick peak 12z NAMNest on Cod website going bonkers with the updraft helicity swaths Springfield area west and some of those swaths showing up in parts of CT.

  13. Thanks TK.

    I am more confident this morning in severe thunderstorms later today especially over western MA, eastern and southeastern NY, and CT. Some instances of damaging winds are likely, along with the chance for a tornado or two. Less confident in what happens surrounding that area I mentioned; I think those places will get the worst of it but some threat extends to bordering areas in all directions as well.

  14. WxWatcher the discussion from Upton, NY mentions the possibility of a weak tornado for the area of NY you mentioned. 12z NAM is going bonkers with the supercell composite over a good chunk of inland CT and the significant tornado parameter is greater than 2.0 for Litchfield and Hartford counties in CT. I believe this overdone.

    1. Another indirect factor, I believe, in play are the ocean temps in Long Island Sound and just east of the northern NJ Coast, which are now running 75F to 80F.

      This is another source for very, very tropical humidity to advect into the area people are mentioning above.

    2. I am wondering if there will be another MD for western parts of CT and MA a little later on today.

      2. Maybe.

        I think the mid Atlantic is primed for a line of strong thunderstorms.

        Up our way, in western areas, it’s more of whether a super cell can rotate on an evening warm front moving through. Separate entities.

  17. GFS coming around to a very hot Monday the euro has been advertising for a few days now.

    What a change in the GFS. Days ago, it really developed the disturbance coming thru tomorrow into a closed low in the maritimes with a following refreshing airmass. Closed to that time frame now, that looks laughable.

    1. Here it is

      https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

      …Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States into New England…
      A moist air mass will be in place across much of the eastern CONUS
      Thursday, with 70 deg F dewpoints possible as far north as northern
      NJ/NYC and 65 deg F dewpoints into ME. A low-amplitude shortwave
      trough is forecast to move eastward from the Upper Great
      Lakes/Ontario eastward through New England. Ascent associated with
      this shortwave trough and its attendant cold front are expected to
      result in widespread thunderstorms amid the moist and unstable air
      mass from the Mid-Atlantic States into New England.

      Buoyancy is generally not expected to be overly strong, largely a
      result of poor mid-level lapse rates and more filtered diurnal
      heating. Instability is currently expected to be strongest from the
      VA Tidewater region south across central and eastern NC. This
      instability will be displaced south of the better vertical shear,
      which is expected to be farther north over New England, closer to
      the more amplified portion of the shortwave trough. More favorable
      shear in this region suggests a greater potential for more
      organized/stronger bowing line segments. Consequently, a 15% wind
      probability has be introduced with this outlook. The lack of
      stronger vertical shear farther south suggest a more disorganized
      storm mode and lower severe potential.

  23. Quick peak at the latest HRRR model run showing some of those helicity swaths over parts of the interior in CT and MA.

  24. Snippets from social media today that make it clear more than ever that general education is lacking…

    “A hurricane?! But hurricanes happen in the fall!”
    1) It’s not a hurricane (yet).
    2) Tropical cyclone season runs June 1 through November 30.
    3) Not relevant to this, but storms can occur outside those dates.

    “An earthquake?! In Alaska?! What else is gonna happen in 2020!?”
    1) It has nothing to do with 2020, other than that’s when it occurred.
    2) Alaska lies in one of the most seismically active places on the planet. Earthquakes, including major ones, are NOTHING new there.

    Education! Education! Education!
    I can’t do this myself…I don’t reach enough people.

    1. Thank you for your forecast TK, and also your levelheadedness.

      I’ve only recently become active on social media. Mostly for my work. When Twitter or LinkedIn are used as professional media they can be very constructive. However, social media are prone to fake news reports, exaggerations, selection and extreme political bias, and misinterpretation of facts or events, such as weather and geological phenomena.

      1. Most of the comments I see are on FB pages of regular media outlets, or sometimes “fake” weather sites run by hobbyists who have no business giving information that people make decisions on (but that’s an entire different issue). It just shows how many people out there don’t know how to interpret information or know basics about things that should be fairly common knowledge, or at least information for which should be readily available and easy to understand, which in many cases it is but they will never know about it for lack of communication.

          1. I think one of the biggest “problems” is prioritizing the wrong things. I know we’ve mentioned this many times. The emphasis is now on the attention grabbing headline (for ratings and/or clicks) and not on the content behind the headline. As soon as that happens, it’s downhill from there.

            The other issue, with a simple fix, in terms of weather knowledge, is a little bit more push by NWS (with distribution to local news outlets) on weather education, making it fun & interesting. The problem with this is I don’t think the program / news directors would go for it. It’s not “interesting” enough. And this is where they are completely disconnected from reality.

      1. That has to be one of the stupidest memes I’ve seen yet. 😉 But we haven’t seen the last of those. Trust me on that.

  26. I think Greater Boston is pretty much immune from storms until at least 9PM, and then after that may face remnants. Low risk that something stronger “survives” but we won’t really know that until we check out the activity in progress.

    The HRRR is not going to help us on that until about an hour before, assuming it’s on its game. TV media may show you “futurecast” maps but don’t take them literally.

  27. If you are old enough, you recall the Alaska earthquake of 1964. Boy I dated that summer had come to live with his grandmother next door while their home was repaired.

    Other stuff….I just don’t read. But media has not changed from as far back as it has existed. See Adams/Jefferson term in office. ‘It’s the reason Jefferson is my least favorite founder

    1. The pictures of that damage were among the most impactful things I have seen as a kid – it being in one of our encyclopedia type book series we had in the house. Just amazing.

      1. Steve was in the shower when it hit. It was a small part of the home remaining which isn’t unusual but with the damage. Wow

  28. TK perfect example is people looking at the weather models and thinking the current tropical wave over by Cape Verde is the system to watch for our next MDR system when its actually the disturbance still over Africa at the moment that looks to come off the coast Friday/Saturday that would be the 9th system of the season also a record if I am not mistaken. I commented this a couple times today and someone blocked me because of it

    Gonzalo is already fighting off some dry air but I think this is short term and it won’t be until it reaches the Southern Antilles that its just ripped apart. I feel it should still be a Hurricane at some point tomorrow/tomorrow night before it starts to weaken.

    We could have a total of 5 named systems this july that would tie 2005 if it happens. Some people are thinking we could hit 6 before the end of July i doubt it.

  29. Mookie Betts…12 years/$365M

    Interesting that the Red Sox make the exact same mistake 100 years later. “Mookie’s Curse”?

    Have we come full circle? Will 2018 become the new 1918? 😉

  30. I’m participating in the third webinar put on by NWS right now. This one is severe weather 202 hosted by Joseph Dellicarpini. There very informative and I’d highly recommend to join the next one. I think it’s SNE tornadoes next Thursday. Theres a link in the NOAA NWS homepage

  34. My niece and family are in Marlboro. The cell seems to be headed that way but maybe north of them? Anyone? Please.

  35. Pretty impressive lifetime for that supercell, but I do think it’s nearing its death.

  36. Around 6:00 p.m. I noted the developing cell to the southwest of Belchertown and theorized it would be rotating soon and I never imagined it would still be rotating 3 hours later.

  37. Can feel down here what is feeding into these storms.

    Very light wind from the S and it is stifling. Warm, wet rag. Oppressive humidity.

  38. Scott looks so close to you and my niece but just squeezing between. I’m happier with TK having an eye on it but pray he stays safe

      1. I saw a t storm earlier and think it was this cell but not sure. Nothing for a while I don’t get it

        1. Thanks. I´ve been busy up to a few minutes ago, so, I am just trying to get caught up. 🙂 🙂

  39. Scott looks as if the one after that one and several more are headed for you. Unless my mind shorted. I think you are in sterling?

  40. Yes thanks I’m thinking it’ll just be rain along with lightning. No wind to speak of here at all. Seems to have lost its punch as TK mentioned above. Hence the reason there were no warnings.

  41. I’m just ahead of the cell near 495. Lots of rumbling.

    Cell is weakening ever so slowly.

  42. Is the warm front hung up over Central MA, or is it further north? Seems like the storms are riding along some sort of boundary.

    1. Looking at the 9pm obs, and seeing the northward extent of the low – mid 70s dew points and southerly surface winds, the warm front would be along the CT/Mass border, eastward to along the RI/Mass border, eastward to somewhere on the south shore just north of Marshfield.

  43. The cell currently over Hubbardston, Barre ….. west of Wachusett Reservoir seems to be intensifying.

        1. Well since everyone is out for a bit…..I’m not sure how the dog and the new kitty and I would have done in basement

          So…good

  44. Just stepped outside on the deck for a minute and the humidity took my breath away. The dewpoint is up to 73* here right now!

  45. I ran a bath at 8 pm then put on a robe to wait until the storm passed….

    It is still wild here! I wish I was “Scotty” from Star Trek ABD could beam Vicki over – she’d be loving it!

  46. The system in the Gulf is now Tropical Depression 8. Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect for much of the Texas coast.

  47. Programming note….the Storm HQ Weekly Outlook will be delayed until Friday this week. A special blog on the tropics will be issued Thursday afternoon. Between Gonzalo heading for the Windward Islands, TD 8 heading toward Texas, and Douglas in the Eastern Pacific threatening Hawaii this weekend, I’ve got plenty to write about.

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