Thursday July 23 2020 Forecast

100 Comments

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 23-27)

Yesterday’s shower and thunderstorm activity behaved about as expected. Today brings another threat of showers and storms, this time in a very warm and humid air mass ahead of a cold front, which will pass by during tonight and early Friday morning, bringing the threat to an end. Thunderstorms today may be strong to locally severe, and while I don’t expect this to be a widespread issue, all should be on the look-out any time this afternoon through early evening for the potential. Cooler and drier air arrives during Friday, behind the front, and sets up what looks like a nice late July weekend with driest air Saturday and a bit more humidity and heat Sunday. A weak trough of low pressure will pass by late Sunday night into the early hours of Monday with just the slightest risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm, otherwise Monday should be mainly dry and on the hot side.

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog early, otherwise mostly cloudy to partly sunny through mid morning with a brief passing light shower possible. Sun/cloud mix with showers/thunderstorms possible any time this afternoon . Thunderstorms may contain torrential rain, small hail, frequent lightning, and strong wind gusts. Humid. Highs 84-91, cooler some South Coast areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH (variable, stronger, gusty near any thunderstorms).

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms possible evening, mainly near and south of I-90. Patchy fog late evening and overnight. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH, except variable and gusty near any storms early.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Less humid. Highs 78-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89, cooler in some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH except some coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 85-92, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 88-95. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Higher humidity and a risk of showers / thunderstorms July 28 into July 29. High pressure north and low pressure south may combine for more cloudiness, onshore flow, and cooler temperatures July 30-31, but there remains a high degree of uncertainty in this part of the forecast. Improvement or nicer weather should take place by August 1 regardless.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)

Fairly zonal flow, seasonably warm to hot weather and a couple shower and thunderstorm opportunities in the early days of August.

100 thoughts on “Thursday July 23 2020 Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    0.23 inch in the bucket for yesterday, including last night’s
    remnant thunder storm.

    1. 0.11 inch at Logan. Interesting how they have been getting considerably less (relatively speaking) compared to the rest of the city.

  6. Thanks TK. Very heavy rain last night when I went to bed, but unfortunately none of it registered to my rain gauge. I’ll need to check it out.

    1. Latest HRRR and RAP suggestion convection in the Boston area
      around 20Z-21Z or so or 4-5 PMish.

  15. Awfully quite for a possible convection day.

    Speaking of convection, some decent action developing
    out by Albany, NY

    https://imgur.com/a/o7MLX6D

    No watches or mesoscale discussions as of this moment from
    the SPC. I suspect there will be one in the next hour or 2.
    I suspect there will be a watch for much of our area. Including Boston? Probably, but we shall see. The eastward extent
    may be just West of Boston. Who knows. Outlook will
    be updated fairly soon.

    1. Question. Does the color of the discussion area outline have anything to do with the discussion, type of watch being considered or chances of severe???

      I have noticed blue, light blue, red and brown.

      Today’s is almost a robin’s egg blue????

      OR is it just the mood of the forecaster????

  19. The models agree on another 5 days of warm to hot weather.

    Days 6 and beyond, yet another eastern Canada trof of some sorts.

    Frankly, I don´t believe them anymore when they show these. Likely to flatten out these deeper projected trofs as these projections move into days 3 and 4 outlooks, instead accompanied by a slight humidity drop and not much reduction in temperature.

  24. Seems northern MA/Southwest NH has been the thunderstorm hot spot this particular year. Though that probably true many years given its further distance from the ocean.

  25. So what the bleep else is new??? from NWS

    We do think the
    highest severe weather threat is across interior and northern
    portions of MA and perhaps into northern CT. Somewhat better
    shear/cape overlap exists in this region.

  26. Thank you, TK.

    Tom, I hope the Eastern Canada trough develops and gets stuck in place for a while.

    Today was brutal, not in terms of temperature, but the humidity completely overwhelmed me. Granted, I ran at midday in the heat as a challenge to myself. Not a good idea. I made it home after 7 miles, but I felt sick and depleted. I measured my blood pressure, and it was VERY low, 84/49. It’s usually high – typically 145/93.

  29. I was going to post that it looked like the line was weakening, then in the last few frames it seems to be gaining strength?

    We shall see. Looks pretty juicy East of Worcester Already.

  30. I think intensity looks decent around Worcester area.

    Nice to see the line sagging to the southeast. Maybe we can get some rain on the south shore.

  33. pretyt decent storm commencing here in JO.
    Loud crackbof thunder. raining good but not a diwmpour yet. I see a hailvsignature about tobroll on wevshall see.

  35. Dropped to 72 here. Still raining a bit, but storm moving off.
    NOT impressed in any way shape or form.
    Nice little T-storm. Severe? NOPE! Not even close.

    0.37 inches so far and just about done.

  36. Still some more nice storms out by Albany. The watch did say
    until 8PM. We shall see how they hold up as they traverse
    the state.

  38. I have not seen anything so far. The line forming south of Albany will be my last shot to get some action today.

    1. I checked mine during lunch and there were some obstructions so I cleaned it out, ran some water through it, and changed the battery. Mine registered .10 for what came through this afternoon. Unfortunately I’m not seeing precip recorded for nearby stations for whatever reason to verify.

    1. They have had a fair amount this season also. Will give my brother and sister in law a call in a bit. Thanks, Tom

  42. TK, JPdave, Tom or SAK could you tell me if the storm that came through Andover MA had any signs of rotation? The wind came swirling in something fierce and took down a monster willow in the yard and my neighbor lost a dozen trees and several more through the woods. Most were broke about 12 feet off the ground the rest up rooted. I drove around the area here within 5 miles and there seams to be very narrow damage path less then a 1/4 mile long and maybe a few hundred feet wide.There is hardly a leaf down outside of this path. I was planning on calling it in.

    1. That was my first guess as we seam to get a few up this way. The only thing that is throwing my off is the very narrow path. I had to cut 5 trees out of his driveway so he could get out.

  44. Did you notice with the trees that came down were they blown down straight or was there twists and turns? Thankfully no one got hurt when that storm came through.

  45. I’d say 3/4 are pointing the same direction. The willow is facing almost opposite. My neighbor described swirling winds and he headed for the basement. It was tough to see how the clouds were behaving since it’s a wooded area. I was out front looking southwest but the direction of path was behind me. The path is a West to East orientation.

  46. I hope you report the damage Diamond, including the path you described. Hopefully, the NWS would send someone out to assess.

  47. Diamond,
    The times I looked did not notice rotation, but I wasn’t looking all of the time.

  48. Ch4 has been broadcasting on the street behind me. It is in direct path that I described. 3 houses have large oaks on them. Unbelievable! The NWS has been notified.

    1. Thank you guys for checking on rotation. I appreciate it. I must say I LOVE this site. Thank you TK and everyone else. I talked one of the homeowners that had a large oak on the house. They described a quick hitting blast and trees falling all around. They did say all the there neighbors are safe thank goodness!

  50. Good chase today. I had to let the initial stuff to the north go because of work so I hung around the trailing cells initially then took off knowing that the southern part of the line was going to be the one to go after.

    Highlights of the chase…
    -Torrential downpours on I-95 S that slowed traffic almost to a stop.
    -A couple lightning cores in the cells I encountered while moving south down I-95 Lexington to Waltham that produced several strikes within 1/2 mile as we drove along. It was some of the loudest thunder I have heard inside a car during a downpour, while moving.
    -Shelf cloud in the Milton / Canton area after I got back ahead of the line.
    -Let the line come back through me as I sat parked in the parking lot of a place the weather conference had been several times. A quick developing lightning core gave us several close strikes there and good cracks of thunder along with pretty heavy rain. Wind was gusty for a short time but not that strong there.

    1. Hmmm

      Sitting in the Meditech parking lot, eh? I once held a great position in that company and it now has been 22 years since I had a blowup with the President and was shown the door. He crossed the line and I let him have it like I had never done before. Staff in the entire building could hear me screaming at the President.

  51. Good downpours sure but not a lot of thunder & lightning here. I hope tomorrow and the weekend the dewpoints will be considerably lower.

  52. The NFL team from Washington, D.C. is the winner of the Creativity Award with the new official name:
    Washington Football Team

    “Let’s go Football Team!!”

    1. Just perfect. And all the other things I have I will just kindly keep them to myself. 🙂

      1. Well As all here know, being particularly fond of Scandinavian folklore ( see my Tomte Christmas collection), I find it offensive. I need an eye roll here. Where is the darned eye roll.

  53. I had to google what a Kraken is and I found out it is a legendary cephalopod-like sea monster of gigantic size in Scandinavian folklore. According to the Norse sagas, the kraken dwells off the coasts of Norway and Greenland and terrorizes nearby sailors.

  55. TD 8 is now Tropical Storm Hanna. Rainmaker for Texas.

    Gonzalo looks a bit healthier, but still likely doesn’t get much past the islands before going poof.

    Douglas is a Category 4, and might still be a hurricane when it gets close to Hawaii on Sunday.

  57. New weather post is up…
    I’ll also repost SAK’s outlook there.
    You’ll find them very similar – only difference maybe that I went for a few pop up showers in eastern CT, RI, and adjacent southern MA today.

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