27 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – November 12 2020”

    1. For those who are wondering why Baker seems to have changed of late, these are the folks he is taking his lead from.

  1. I’m still very nervous when the flu gets going what things will look like . I’m still guessing it won’t look good . I have not heard any mention of the flu yet has anyone else , perhaps it’s still early . My sons school will do all remote the week after thanksgiving as an extra layer of precaution but he is fully remote for now until I see how it all pans out .

      1. Yes, a good move but perhaps it should be 2 weeks just to be on the safe side. I believe the virus can take that long to show symptoms. Isn’t it technically, 10-14 days?

          1. We don’t have school the week of thanksgiving. But I was thinking same as philip with two weeks. At least it is a week

  2. I have always wondered regarding people smoking in public these days with their masks off and blowing their smoke and (possible) Covid germs all around. I have yet to hear from the medical community about this either way. I always try to step away from smokers anyway, but now we know that that virus travels much further than 6 feet. My concern is especially at MBTA stops/stations.

    Joshua, your thoughts on this?

  3. A couple of airlines are reporting having to add flights for thanksgiving. Good grief

    Joshua, i believe you said some European countries are showing a decline. I apologize that I can’t recall which ones. I know some are still climbing. But for even a few to have turned the corner would be encouraging

    1. Recently, according to the medical community, flying is actually the safest way to travel, if anything. It did surprise me as well given the closeness. The middle seating has returned also.

  4. It now seems that masks are just as important to the mask wearer as well as others around them. At least every day, the medical community learns something new the general public can use. That’s a good thing.

      1. For some reason I get spammed by the Trump team a lot. I mean more than 50 messages every day. The Election Defense Fund is indeed after my money. The emails are coming from the campaign for re-election.

        Here’s the precise text, which I got an hour ago:

        Trump Pence Make America Great Again

        I need you right now, Joshua. You’re a true patriot.

        The blatant voter fraud throughout corrupt Democrat-run cities is unprecedented. The Left has proven that there is nothing they will not do to rip power away from the American People.

        When they come after ME, they’re really coming after YOU and everything YOU stand for.

        This Election isn’t over yet. We still have a long way to go and I need to know that I can count on you. I’m putting together an Election Defense Task Force that will be made up of my STRONGEST defenders. I’m calling on YOU to step up and join.

        — — —

        For fun, I donated Monopoly money. Put it in an envelope and mailed it to the White House.

          1. Very sad that the current POTUS is focused more on an election that he will likely lose than Covid-19. 🙁

          2. Hahahahaha. Comment of the day

            Joshua. I reply by saying I was voting for trump but if they send one more email I ….along with my entire huge family.,,,will vote for Biden 🙂

  5. Philip, you make a good point about smokers. My guess is because droplets are being aerosolized that blowing smoke can indeed spread the virus.

    Vicki, in Europe we’re seeing rapid improvement in terms of new daily cases in Ireland, which is in lockdown except for primary schools (down to 300 new cases/day from a peak of 1,300 cases 2 weeks ago); Belgium, which is also in lockdown (down to 3,000 cases/day from a peak of 19,000 just 10 days ago); and the Netherlands, which is in partial lockdown (down to 5,500 cases from a peak of 11,000 10 days ago). France and Spain – in partial lockdown – are seeing slight improvement, but still a high number of hospitalizations and deaths. Germany is experiencing some improvement, but it never got very bad. The country is in partial lockdown. UK is seeing some improvement, hasn’t been as hard as countries on the continent. The UK is in partial lockdown. Italy continues to see growing numbers of cases, in spite of regional lockdowns. Its number of deaths is approaching the peak in early April. Sweden is seeing exponential growth in new cases, as well as a doubling of hospitalizations/ICU usage in the past 10-14 days. Finland didn’t get a 2nd wave and is still doing well. Eastern European countries that have experienced a far worse 2nd wave than 1st have begun to decline sharply in terms of new daily cases. Still very high numbers of deaths. Includes Czech Republic.

    By December Europe will have the virus spread under control. My guess is that targeted measures will continue until a vaccine is deployed for all vulnerable groups and essential staff.

    Meanwhile in the U.S. in many states we’re in full herd immunity (well, Trump called it herd mentality) mode. It’s certainly an approach. But, it’s going to kill many tens of thousands of people, if not hundreds of thousands over the next few months.

    1. I have an online friend (co-admins of an international weather page on Facebook) from Scotland that I am in fairly regular contact with on the admin chat. She informed me recently that in her area they went with pretty swift and strict lockdowns when the current wave appeared, as it was expected to, and while there are improvements already they want to be smart about coming out of the cautions too quickly. Yes it sucks to have to do it, but they are generally doing it right.

  6. I heard that Gov. Baker has brought back the field hospital to the waterfront area of Boston. Not a good sign.

  7. Joshua, if in fact that Europe should have the virus under control in December, does that mean the U.S. should have it under control come January?

    Based on your posts, I am getting the impression that the virus spreads from “east to west”, much like our jet stream generally flows “west to east” in meteorological terms.

  8. My goodness Joshua….thank you for all of that info. I’m copying and saving. Also thank you for your info, TK

    Uxbridge that had 124 cases from March to sometime in October ….most arriving in this wave….now has 80 ACTIVE CASES……a 150% increase from LAST WEEK.

    What is baker thinking.

  9. TK, Scotland has done quite well throughout. I have a doctor friend who works on the frontline in Glasgow. She says that while there have been several outbreaks and certainly stress in the hospitals it’s been mostly manageable. I would say Scotland and Ireland (Irish Republic) have done a similar job in terms of managing the pandemic.

    Philip, unfortunately, it appears that the U.S. is rudderless for the time being. I don’t expect improvement here for the foreseeable future. Now, I do think Massachusetts and several other East Coast states are taking it fairly seriously. And so our outbreaks won’t be as bad, as, say the Dakotas or Wisconsin. But still, we’re essentially in burn mode, meaning the virus is burning through the population at a very rapid clip. It’s hard to know how many people have gotten the virus. Perhaps as high as 20%, with another ~20-30% immune to it because of past exposure to coronaviruses? At the current rate of 140k new confirmed infections a day (which probably translates into at least 5 times as many in reality) it could then be that most of us will have already had the virus or be immune to it by the time the vaccine becomes widely available to the general public next summer.

    Of course, this then presumes there are no reinfections. And, I do believe there are thousands of reinfections as immunity is short-lived. Also, there have been slight mutations in the virus, which means that a `reinfection’ may simply mean someone is getting sick again with a slightly different version of the virus.

    On influenza the news remains good. Beginning in Asia this past late winter/early spring and going through the Southern Hemisphere influenza was at historic lows. I do think universal masking and other precautions have helped in this regard. Also, influenza’s R0 is smaller than the novel coronavirus, which means it’s less contagious.

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