4 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – January 20 2021”

  1. Arm soreness peaked 12 hours after the injection and is steadily improving now.

    No other side effects.

    1. Congrats! Numbers in Massachusetts are slowly improving–Positivity rate down below 6 after peaking in early January…time to stay vigilant but some cause for optimism?

  2. Data yesterday and today suggest a plateau has been reached after a 7-10 day modest downward trend. Better a plateau than an upward trend. However, we don’t want to just plateau at such an incredibly high level of cases and hospitalizations (and deaths). We need to go down steadily.

    Vaccinations are ramping up, which is really good, BUT supplies are running out in many locales. Also, Israel study confirms what I’ve been saying for a while. The 1st dose of vaccine only reduces chance at contracting the virus and therefore transmissibility by 33%. 2nd dose is definitely needed. And even then it will likely only be around 65% reduction in transmissibility. The vaccine does appear to prevent severe disease in most people. That’s obviously a very important endpoint. But, you still don’t want people who’ve gotten shot transmitting the virus to people who haven’t. I fear that this message is not getting across enough.

    Mitigation measures need to be strengthened. Masking alone isn’t going to cut it.

    Globally, deaths are at record levels once again. Every time I think we’ve seen the worst, we overshoot it, and by a lot today. We’re at 16,500 deaths already. My guess is that when all is said and done worldwide deaths today will approach 17,500.

    The UK recorded 1,800 deaths today. It’s also stunning how full the hospitals are there. I’m not sure the UK variant is equally lethal. Why is the UK suffering the worst daily death tolls by far at this point; also in relationship to numbers of cases and hospitalizations?

    On the continent numbers are improving steadily.

    But, people there are wary and vigilant.

    Curfews are now in effect across much of Europe, to some degree or other. Not sure what curfews will do. It’s probably the least effective mitigation measure. But, I do think that visitor policies, or strong recommendations, are important. Only 1 person allowed to visit – or work in – a household on a given day in almost all European countries. No exceptions. This measure clearly doesn’t apply here. Never has. I see so many workers – often maskless and not at a distance – going in and out of apartments/buildings, a constant flow of visitors/friends/relatives to my buildings’ units (woman above me has at least half-dozen friends over every weekend), very crowded supermarkets, etc …

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