Sunday February 21 2021 Forecast (8:31AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

An area of high pressure slides eastward across the Middle Atlantic today but extends far enough north to give us a nice winter day here in New England. Low pressure will cross New England later Monday bringing unsettled weather with it. For here in southeastern New England, precipitation may come with an initial burst of snow for areas mostly north of I-90 with an initial push of instability and overrunning of warmer air above air that is still quite cold. The surface warm front associated with this system may never make it completely across the WHW forecast area before its cold front sweeps through during the evening. This occluding frontal system will produce a swath of precipitation from west to east during the afternoon and evening, starting out as snow with minor accumulation in the I-95 belt northwestward, and possibly brief rain/snow mix but otherwise mainly rain in areas to the southeast. Once the main front has swept through in the evening then drier air will return and set us up for a decent day on Tuesday, although a disturbance passing north of the region means that we’ll have some high and mid level cloudiness to deal with. Wednesday looks like the pick of the upcoming week with more sunshine, and the mildest air we’ve had for a while. It would end up even warmer if not for existing snow cover, but look for most areas to easily make the middle to upper 40s, which will feel quite nice in combination with the late February sun. A cold front will sweep across the region in the early hours of Thursday with limited moisture to worth with, so just look for some cloudiness and perhaps a brief shower of rain as it will still be fairly mild. Temperatures during the day Thursday will not move all that much as the arrival of cold air and the warming of the sun essentially balance each other out.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 16-23. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Brief burst of snow possible northern MA and southern NH mid to late morning with a dusting or a coating of accumulation possible. Precipitation arriving west to east during the afternoon as snow from the I-95 belt northwest and mix/rain to the southeast before changing to rain all areas except may remain mixed with snow in higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Snow accumulation of a coating to 1 inch possible in the I-95 belt and 1-2 inches possible I-495 belt north of I-90 northwestward. Highs 34-41. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, then S increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy start with any rain exiting early, then clearing. Watch for the formation of black ice on untreated surfaces. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 29-36. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower possible overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures steady 35-42. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

Stronger push of cold air February 26 but high pressure builds in with fair weather while a disturbance passes well south of New England. A little uncertainty beyond this as some guidance brings disturbances and unsettled weather into the region over the February 27-28 weekend with a larger storm potential in the first couple days of March, while other guidance keeps the weekend drier and brings unsettled weather in for the start of March. Leaning toward the second solution for now but definitely more re-evaluation needed as I am not sure how this evolves yet.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)

Very low confidence out this far. West to northwest flow pattern expected. Best chance for unsettled weather comes around the middle of the period.

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58 thoughts on “Sunday February 21 2021 Forecast (8:31AM)”

  2. Thanks TK!

    Ch. 5 has up to 1” snow from Boston just south with 1-3” well n&w 495 area on Monday. Either way, no big deal.

  4. Thank you, TK.

    Looking ahead to March I think it’s going to be a battle zone, perhaps even more than usual, which could start producing numerous tornadoes in places accustomed to them, like Oklahoma and Arkansas. Here in SNE, I think we’re going to be yo-yoing quite a bit. The cold air mass to our north isn’t dissipating or retreating much, and it’ll be poised to invade whenever it gets a chance (jet stream allows it). The warm air to our south and southwest is going to start expanding and make some incursions into our area during periods when areas of high pressure sink to our south and east.

    1. TK is going to need at least double digit snowfall to get to the “new” normal of 48.7 (Logan). The “old” normal (43.8) would only require 5.4 inches.

        1. Wasn’t the “old” normal for April 1.9”? If that’s the case then the “new” April normal should be even higher.

          1. That would depend on what the Aprils were like during the period that is used for the new normal versus the Aprils used for the set before it. Some months can actually go down even if the overall average goes up.

            1. Since I have the data for Lowell handy:

              Old vs New:
              October Trace -> 0.5″
              November 2.2″ -> 1.7″
              December 12.1″ -> 13.3″
              January 16.4″ -> 16.6″
              February 11.5″ -> 14.9″
              March 10.6″ -> 13.0″
              April 1.7″ – 1.6″
              May Trace -> Trace

              Seasonal 54.5″ – 61.5″

              November and April both dropped a bit, but the others went up a little.

              Precipitation saw some months change by more than 0.25″, but the yearly average only went up by 0.06″. November’s average precipitation went down by 0.39″, but December’s went up by 0.36″.

              For temperatures, the yearly avg temperature went up by 0.3 degrees. However, high temperatures went down by 0.3 while lows went up by 0.9 degrees. Part of this is where the sensor is located in Lowell. Data from the university started in 1974, but the sensor is now located on the roof of a 6-story building, so it usually runs a few degrees warmer than the surroundings at night. It was moved to its current spot around 10 years ago, so that has an impact on the current normals compared to the previous set.

              As for individual months, November, February, and March all got a little colder, while the others were all steady or a bit warmer.

  5. Thanks TK
    Philip your right this won’t be a big deal but when in a tight snowfall race and only leading by 0.2 every little bit helps and could be the difference when all is said and done.

  6. Thank you, TK. Like the flirt with 50. Although it gets very little sun, maybe the deck will melt enough for me to get to the new first bowl

  7. I am rooting for a one snowstorm playoff game in March to decide this battle. This snowfall race might have more drama than the Yankees and Red Sox this upcoming season.

  8. Snowfall so far at the reporting stations in SNE. This is a lot better than I thought snowfall would be at this point in the season. Going into this winter I thought if 30 inches happened that would be an accomplishment.
    Tweet from Meteorologist Geoff Cornish
    Boston: 38.4″ (7.4″ above avg to date)
    Worcester: 68.8″ (23.0″ above avg to date)
    Providence: 33.5″ (8.0″ above avg to date)
    Hartford: 40.4″ (10.2″ above avg to date)

  9. Thanks TK !

    I can´t wait for the weather Wednesday !

    Not that it will make it, but the last time Logan hit 50F was January 16th.

    While it hasn´t been an arctic winter, there hasn´t been many excessively mild days either.

    2. I’m looking forward to it also, Tom. I am not ready to let go of winter, but I love the teases as one season gets close to its end and a new one begins

      1. It was Philip, I noticed in looking back, it was 60F.

        I agree Vicki. The tease today is that bright, strong sun. I didn´t turn the heat on in the car because the car was so nice and warm already.

    1. Maybe this relates, maybe it doesn´t.

      It happened this past July or August.

      There was a light flow, southerly flow off the Gulf of Maine and the dewpoints in Lewiston ME and Augusta ME and the areas in those vicinities ran 74F to 77F. Yes, the dewpoints.

      And it was a local feature that day. The dewpoints stood out as even the dewpoints region wide in most of New England were in the 60s.

      But the flow was light south in coastal Maine and then I looked at a few of the buoy obs in the gulf of Maine and they were running in the mid 70s that day.

      I remember thinking being very, very surprised at those kind of dewpoints.

      2. From July 27th, 2020

        I’m thinking the Gulf of Maine is roasting. S, SW winds off of it with mid 70 dew-points in Maine not too far north of that body of water.

  12. The 68.8″ of snow recorded in Worcester is interesting to me. I live in Lunenburg, 25 miles from the Worcester airport in a straight line. I have been recording the snowfall at home and also have 68.8″!

    1. Very interesting. I wish I’d kept track. I suspect I could go back and check my whw comments, I’d be able to add it up. I wasn’t surprised by the number since even here we have had fairly high totals.

    2. Since you live in northern Worcester County that is no surprise. Were you expecting more than the city of Worcester itself?

      1. I’m just surprised that I happened to come up with the same number!

        I believe that the measurements for Worcester are taken at the airport at 1000′. Someone can correct me otherwise. Our house is at 420′.

      1. The companies that were earned years ago to winterize and chose not to and the Texas public utility commissions failure to do its job has literally created a disaster of unthinkable proportion. And the customer is the one left holding the bag.

        Now as utilities fail, customers are being switched to other companies….often without knowledge. Then there is a whole other problem with smart meters.

        My heart aches for folks in TX. Sadly, the state has a less than stellar history. …very sadly.

    1. That has “March” written all over it…

      But betting on that particular outcome is something I would not do right now. 😉

    1. Dave was offered a full time position at WBZ this past Fall. He chose to to turn it down and that’s when Jacob was hired full time. When Sarah came back from maternity leave, Dave returned to his fill in role with the station.

      He preferred the balance of life his work for the Boston Globe, WBUR, WBZ, Growing Wisdom, Colby College and some other private ventures offered him versus a single full time position at WBZ.

      2. I’m glad Dave made a choice that suits him, and that the station has enough compassion to not take the “turn-down” personally and still keep him on as a fill-in. Everybody’s happy that way.

        I’ve never been one to judge people’s career decisions. There’s always a reason and one should always choose what’s best for them, not always something because the $ might be better.

      3. Most would have taken the (full time) money $$$$ rather than stay with all those part time gigs. To each his own, I guess.

        Plus, I prefer a tv met with “experience” over youth. Just my personal preference. Hope we still get to see him on air on occasion when Jacob goes on vacation. 😉

        1. Well, in order to gain experience one has to start working in the field. Jacob is gaining great experience now, and doing quite well I might add. We get the best of both worlds this way: We get to watch a guy “growing into” a veteran TV guy in a big market, and we still get to see good ole Dave from time to time as well. 🙂

  16. Hey JpDave…I got my first vaccine shot last Wednesday evening (had no side effects) and my 2nd shot is the day before yours. I will let you know how I did that day (I am a few years older than you). Have to play tennis the next day…might have to bow out of that one.

  17. If the extended temp forecast is accurate, it seems like there will be about 72 consecutive hours above freezing. Hopefully it will thin out the piles a lot.

  18. Thanks TK!
    I can’t wait to watch the Bs play on an open air rink tonight against the Flyers out there in Lake Tahoe. Go Bruins!

  19. Thanks, TK

    I, too, am looking forward to the B’s game in Nevada. I love watching the outdoor Winter Classics on New Year’s Day, especially in areas when it snows!

    Reminds me of my pond skating and hockey days!!!

    Tomorrow starts high school sports “Fall II” season: winter track, volleyball, cheer, Unified basketball and, yes, football.

    We have seven Friday night lights football games games starting on March 12. I am the team’s PA announcer and, fortunately, there’s a heater in the press box! 🙂

    Not sure what the state is going to do with indoor track. In normal times, many EMass schools run meets at the Reggie Lewis Track Center in Roxbury. I am sure that’s not going to be possible. One of the possibilities that I am hearing is that schools will run events on their home track and the opponent will do the same on their track and the coaches will compare times, heights and distances to determine a winner.

    That’s what our school and league did for winter swimming and diving.

    Not sure what will happen to our sports if March is extremely snowy or bitterly cold.

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