Temperatures Moderate, No Major Storms

210 Comments

4:31PM

Going to back off a bit on the storm threat for Sunday, as it looks like things don’t combine in the right way to send a storm south of us with marginally cold enough air for mix to snow. Odds are against it at this point, so just expect moderating temperatures, slightly at first for the next couple of days, then more meaningful moderation on Saturday as a low pressure area tracks north of the region. I’m still expecting a frontal passage leading to chillier air on Sunday, but just lots of clouds and no precipitation. It looks quiet and not too cold into the start of next week.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy through midnight. Partly cloudy overnight. Low 16-21. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early. Becoming mostly cloudy late. Low 21-26. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. High 40-45. Wind WSW 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 30-35. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High 45-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 29. High 38.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 36.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 43.

210 thoughts on “Temperatures Moderate, No Major Storms”

  2. The 00z EURO’s mega storm is now a small fish storm on the 12z run.
    Although in both the 00z and 12z runs it was showing heights building over Greenland and Alaska, at the end of the run of course.
    The next 7 days are going to be UGH! 🙂

  3. I think Boston got below 12 last night, though I am not 100% sure. If so, I was wrong, because I thought it would not get below 12. Nevertheless, I have been thinking all week that we will once again hit 50 on Saturday, and that it will not snow on Sunday or Monday, and it looks like the forecasts are now suggesting the possibility of 50 on Saturday and no snow on Sunday. I am truly amazed (and disappointed) at this pattern. Not getting snow is one thing, but even the ice is having a hard time forming under these conditions. The pond on the Public Garden freezes over every winter, even mild ones. Usually by mid December you can actually stand on the ice, at least for a day or two before a thaw interlude. And by January, invariably the ice will be thick enough for a person to stand on, again at least for a day or two prior to a thaw interlude. Yet, this year, there has been little or no ice! Not even close to being supportive of people (though I did see a squirrel venture out onto the ice this morning, albeit cautiously). Yes, the ice is currently in the process of (thus far) minimal ice formation. But, that process will regress as we approach Friday, probably leaving no ice at all (not even for geese to frolick on) by Saturday night or Sunday. I know I am repeating myself, but this is a highly unusual occurrence. I beg to differ with those who say that this winter is not an aberration. I have seen plenty of mild November through January periods, but none this mild or snowless. I hope that the GFS is correct about a sustained period of cold coming in 10 days time, but I am very, very skeptical.

    1. Hi Joshua…Boston got down to 10 degrees this morning. Frankly, I thought it would get down to 8 or 9. Just missed the single digits. 🙂

  4. Did u see the channel 7 and even channel 4 newscasters, they we’re giddy practically laughing when they said there’s no snow as far as he can c and rain on Sunday now. I dislike it when they do that but there’s just so many people that hate snow, we r overmatched, the trolls on WBz r eating this up over there

    1. Charlie, I appreciate your insights and posts: I know I will sound like an old grouch when I say this, but things were different when I was growing up. I grew up in Needham in the late 60s and early 70s. As children we loved the snow, obviously. But also skating on frozen ponds was fun (I lived near a pond, and pretended I was Bobby Orr on many occasion, only to fall flat on the ice every time). Also, parents seemed to enjoy it, or at least not complain about it like everyone seems to today. How can someone prefer rain to snow? I just do not get it. I know how bad rain is. I lived in the Netherlands for many years: Rain is bad, very bad. And in Holland I so missed not having a real winter. So, when I returned to the Boston area, I absolutely loved the snowstorms and cold days. They invigorate me. A morning like this morning gives me a feeling of being alive. Unfortunately, the cold snap is ending and I will begin feeling blah again.

      1. I can’t agree more, I like the snow and very frustrated that no snow is in the forecast at this point, but yes it changed in the 90’s were everyone wants to be in sunnier and drier climates as supposed to wet and cold climates, I like the 4 seasons, but it’s just the way it is now, I was actually training my friends brother at work, he’s 16 and is new England to the core to today’s standards, and he’s always saying the less snow the better so what I think we gave here is a new generation of snow haters, and Joshua there everywhere, it ticks me off, take it easy joshua

      2. Joshua I agree that the feeling was different. I’m a bit older than you and even in the 90s I dOnt remember the snow haters. It was winter and what everyone expected. Families got together and skated or skied or sledded.

      3. Also I would have to say the bruins r not as popular as the 60’s and 70’s but I know what ya mean 🙂

  5. Wouldn’t it be crazy if Logan came in with like 4 or 5 inches, boy that would stir up the global warming community if it hasn’t already, I actually heard someone today say it can be as cold as it wants just no snow

    1. I heard someone say that just yesterday as I was walking out of my neighborhood store. This is definitely a snow haters winter for sure. 🙁

  6. A lot of people will take the cold over the snow since you don’t have to shovel the cold. This maybe true but your wallet is a light lighter with colder weather since the furnace has to run more.

  7. I am encouraged by the potential forecast in the long run. Let’s hang in there in the next week and I feel we will be rewarded later in the month and February.

    2. You will be trust me. Unlike you guys I know very little about the weather. But the one thing we have in common is are love for weather. As what I say is for the most part is gut feelings. I honestly believe we end up with above snow for this winter. As I said before people will look back at this winter and look at It as the winter that got off really slow, but boy at the middle/end she sure showed her punch. The one thing I do notice here, and this is no disrespect, but people seem to be giving up. I know your patience is thin, but remember winter has just startrd on Dec 22. We are going to have some snowstorms, trust me. I think they will be big ones as the storms every year seem to get bigger. I believe a few storms will get us that above. As I have said before when we have plans snow seems to threaten. My wife and I have everything coming at us for the 14th, and I believe there is a storm watch for that day. Watch we get that one LOL. Just hang in there. Things will be changing.

        1. Hmmmm….I am not sure about that “onward” stuff. The NAO looks positive again for the 2nd half of the month. I do believe February will bring snow and hopefully March as well.

          1. The NAO forecasts have been waffling, I think it will end up going negative with the PV shifting southward.
            The forecast for the AO is for it to really tank, which makes sense.
            The NAO forecast makes sense for the short term, but not for the long term.

          2. Having said that, I am looking forward to MLK weekend for snow, then back to mild and boring for the rest of the month.

            1. I think once we are able to get snow, it means a new pattern has set in, and it may last right through March.

            2. I think you and I nail it for that weekend. There is already a storm to watch for Saturday 1/14. The pats will be playing in the snow and should win. But Pit also knows how to play in snow.

              1. Hey John, I don’t believe that Pittsburgh is set in stone. They still have to win their game this weekend first.

                1. They play Denver right. I would love to see Pit knocked out of playoffs for two reasons. One I hate there Quarterback, and I think you can figure out why. And Two big threat to pats. I would love to see a Denver rematch.

      2. Hi John. Daughter says rink in pembroke is HUGE. Is charlies too the same charlies that was in Brant rock??

        1. Yes. I am not sure If that opened while the brantRock one was here or after. It is just ok. Charlies in brantrock was awesome. The bigest clams I have ever seen. When my wife and I were dating we would go there. Like I said I live by the rink. If you go past rink towards center
          take right at that light. I live in that back neighborhood. We got an email today that this weekend’s opening of the rink has been postponed till 1/15. They did not say why but I suspect Saturday being in the 50s does not help. It sounds like your daughter likes Pembroke. The Brimstone Tavern that I was telling you about is on that road where charlies is, before it.

          1. John we would love it if you let us know when it is opening. Not sure if I’ll be there but suspect my daughter and family will. Thank you!!

              1. They really love the town. SIL graduates in the spring. He made presidents list so we are very proud. They had enough for a downpayment before he went for his degree but it’ll take a year plus to save it back. Eventually I suspect they may end up here

                1. I like pembroke as a nice small town but for my wife and 2 kids it’s a bit to quiet for us and a little to far from Boston, we’re in foxboro and we r either moving south which is not what I wanna do or we r gonna move closer to Boston , westwood is in the talks, have a great day everyone 🙂

  8. Remember, however, that as we head deeper into the winter, minutes of sunlight increase and sun angle changes, making it more and more difficult for significant accumulating snows. Obviously, we have had major winter storms in February, March and even April, but it becomes harder to achieve as we head toward spring:(

    1. I have noticed over the years that even after February snows, I need less ice melt and sometimes none at all after shoveling.

  9. The 8-14 day CPC outlook looks promising for a change. It is calling for “normal” temps for the northern tier of CONUS and below normal temps for the southeastern CONUS.

    Could this be an actual serious trend…or just yet another tease??

      1. It’s too warm for the eastern part of the country. That big bubble in Canada should be further east.

          1. There may, but in the past, the models tend to lose storms this far out.
            That storm, should it materialize, could be a pattern changer.

  11. Last year, when I predicted 65 to 70 inches of snow….it had come to the 1st week of December and there hadnt been a flake yet. So, I was bored, thinking about that prediction and came up with this. With the weather we’ve been having, I’ll share it. I’ll probably embarrass myself, but here goes….

    It plays to Frank Sinatra’s New York New York…..

    Start spreadin’ the snow, tired of cold then rain
    the long range GFS is wrong….four times every day.
    These snowlover blues…..are here to stay……
    right through the next one hundred….winter days.

    I want to wake up to a snowfall thats measured in feet
    and find my wish has come true….no turn to sleet.

    These snowlover blues……are buggin’ me today
    I’ll check the EURO model out…..superior in every way…
    If it says……rain and mild air, no cold air……anywhere
    Its on the way….more rain….more rain…..

    More rain…….more rain……
    I want to wake up to hear that snows on the way
    and find its not a dream, the models wont change, rain go away…..
    its not a dream…..

    These snowlover blues……are here to stay…..
    the weather pattern keeps repeating on…….in a very disappointing way…..
    And……………………if the GFS says snow…….I’ll look for a…..west track to the low…..

    I feel it too….
    snowlovers blues…….snowlovers blues……snowlovers blues……..

    2. I love it. You didn’t embarrass yourself at all. I however am tone deaf and sang it to my husband.

    1. Pete’s correct. I remember it well. But, it did get consistently cold. In fact, early December was cold enough to have our local pond freeze over enough to be skatable. And, there were at least 4 ice events, one of which was memorable (I believe in February). My issues with this winter go beyond lack of snow. It’s the lack of any sustained cold since early November that is puzzling.

      1. The lack of cold or sustained cold is amazing……..Like tonight…..warm advection cloud cover, sw flow and temps in the low 30s west of us….dont think temps are falling much tonight and will end up being a bit above normal for overnight low temps.

  14. I was not alive for that winter. If I was a really would have been bummed. Every winter I hope for 2-3 good Noreaster’s.

      1. Some of my earliest weather memories are the very hot, 100F+ August day in the mid to late 70s…I think it was 1976 or 1977 and of course, the Blizzard of 78. I should remember more from earlier in the decade, but then again, I dont remember things from like 2 or 3 days ago.

        1. I remember those years. On one of them we moved a friend into her home at Dartmouth college. She was first woman prof. It was 103. We had no idea of temp until we got home.

        1. I’m older than Charlie and I’ll leave it at that. Ugh age meter (credit to JimmyJames) increasing rapidly.

    2. The storm track that winter was conducive to several coastal huggers, as I recall (I was a budding weather watcher in my early years). With a dome of real, sustained cold to our north that storm track can produce some major ice events (which are not that common along the coast, but a different story inland).

    2. The channel carrying the B’s game is now called the NBC sports network. As I mentioned in an earlier post, my recollection of things is terrible. What did that channel used to be called ?

      1. Can’t remember. Prefer NESN though.

        By the way I misspoke. They are both playing against Jersey, but the Celts are home.

        1. Oh, I like NESN too. I like their current team of Jack Edwards and Andy Brickley, but going back, also really enjoyed Fred Cusick and Derek Sanderson. And I thought Dale Arnold was a good play by play announcer as well.

  16. What got me into weather was the March 1993 Superstorm which had a huge impact on the east coast. I remember forecasters were saying the big khuna was coming Saturday and it did.

    1. My son was 7 in march of that year and we had to cancel his birthday. He remembers it well also. As do I

        2. Vicki, how can a storm (even a “Superstorm”) cancel a birthday?? I am going to assume that you had big birthday “plans” for that day, but had to cancel, right? 🙂

    2. For the superstorm, I happened to be at the Lyndon State College storm conference held just north of Albany, NY. It also happened that Jim Cantore was a guest speaker at the conference. Out there, there was no mix or change, just a lot of snow. I think we had to stay an extra night and then I came home briefly to Lowell, at the time, and found about a foot of snow with a crusty frozen topping on it.

  17. The storm formed in the Gulf of Mexico and had severe weather in Florida and accumulating snow from Georgia to New England.

  18. For the blizzard of 78 I was in Damascus Syria so clearly was not here for it:). To me for the immediate Boston area I have to say the blizzard of 2005 in January has been the most memorable bc we got 30 inches and it was fluffy and no mix.

    1. That storm was unbelievable because it cancelled 3 days of school (Monday thru a Wednesday). By Wednesday, they were still struggling to get rid of all the snow from the school lots and sidewalks and then another 4-8 inch snowfall happened late Wed/Thurs morning and so they just cancelled school Thursday and Friday. We ended up in school until June 28th !!!

      1. It ws nuts. I had to pick someone up and the snow in the front yard of his house was up to my chest bc of the drifts. He refused to walk in it:)

  21. That Superstorm was great here in Boston…until it turned to rain. 🙁

    However, the rain didn’t really put too much of a dent in the snow and it turned very cold overnight into Sunday morning. 🙂

    IIRC Boston got around 13″+ before the changeoever to rain then freezing rain.

    3. SIL said 57 era. I am 62. But don’t tell me because I really have no idea. And have I mentioned longshot has had winning snowfall amount 3 months running

  25. I just got my tax bill. I pay 4600 a year for a small 1200 sq ft ranch. I think its time to move.

    3. We pay that in Framingham. Ours is a ranch too but we doubled it adding on. Still tons of business should cut it

  26. I am 51 and been here in Boston for all the storms. I remember the Don Kent days well when weather was easy to forecast for the most part. In those days, the weather followed textbook pattern. I was born just in time to get one last taste of the good old days. Today’s younger generation of tv mets are turning into snow haters like their co-worker newscasters.

    1. Unbelievable that after nearly 40 yrs without a Stanley Cup, with good health, they have a good enough team to repeat as champs.

  28. I was out on deck a bit ago. Fair amount warmer than last night. No wind and light cloud cover. Nice

      2. Good night Vicki. Not old at all. It was nice to see the age group here. See we can have fun when the weather is boring.

  30. Oh and great song Tom. 🙂 … I know a few famous musicians. Maybe they’ll record it. 🙂

  31. The network has rebranded 3 times in the last 5 plus years. I have a feeling this name will be sticking around for a while.

  36. tonight : cloudy lows in the upper 10s
    thursday partly sunny highs in the mid 30s
    thursday night: partly cloudy lows in the low 20s
    frday and friday night mostly cloudy with highs in the mid 40s, lows in the low 30s
    saturday more clouds than sun with highs in the upper 40s
    saturday night and sunday mostly cloudy lows in the upper 20s, highs in the high 3os
    sunday night: cloudy lows in the low 20s
    monday through tuesday sunny with highs in the mid 30s ,lows in the upper 20s

    outlook for the tuesday to thursday time frame looks like it will be above normal temperatures with a storm system effecting us on the 12 in the form of mainly rain.
    this storm is a possible play maker in a change in the lame pattern we have been seeing so far this season. I think we see around normal snow fall this year. with some seasonal temperatures on the way and long range models do indicate something for the following weekend. way to far to say much about that.

    1. IMHO getting even close to normal (42″+) is going to be very difficult this winter. We would have to see several moderate to extreme snowstorms during February and March.

      Remember, Boston is pretty much starting at “zero” inches (1″ so far). At least the distant west/northwest suburbs have at least a 12+ inch head start.

      1. TK we love the Premium cinema in Framingham since you can have wine served while viewing. They card everyone – although I did point out to the young man who didn’t bother looking at my license when I presented it that he could at least attempt to be sincere 🙂

        1. We always go to showcase cinemas deluxe level at Patriot Pl it’s great and fun too, we usually get a meal and 2 glasses of wine

  38. Quoted by WXrisk on his facebook page”** MAJOR RAIN EVENT LIKELY JAN 11-12 … for ALL of the southeast states … into the Middle Atlantic and into New England. This will be an All rain event even for the Mountains …. from AL and GA to Maine.” Not good for the people who survive on snow but maybe a pattern change

  39. For the first time in as long as I can remember, Environmental Canada’s long range temp outlook does not have the northeast in above normal temps. In fact, it has a bubble of below normal temps, looking to be centered over say Montreal Canada. Quite a change !!! This change is for the period of Fri. Jan. 13th thru Jan. 20th. Here comes the sustained cold and the 0z GFS has a nice looking intensifying clipper in that time frame. I just wish it didnt have it this far out, thats the only scenario likely not to happen. :). Have a good day all !!

    1. Before then, at least until about the 13th…I think the temp anomolies are going to build up nicely. I think there’s potential for three 50F days. Maybe this saturday, next Wednesday and Thursday. With that inside runner middle of next week, one of those nights is going to be WAY above normal. But after that, cold !!!!!

  40. I think that 12th storm is clearly the major pattern changer. Sustained cold after that. Joe bastardi tweeted last night that this flip will be similar to 2007.

  41. That EURO is having issues at this time, so I would let not put too much stock into it. The GFS still is promising in the long range.

  42. What a lamb of a winter so far.

    I’d like to see a few more model runs before jumping on the sustained cold train.

    1. Didn’t even bother to check, that’s how confident I am.
      If there was any skin it is on the backside where it is not
      exposed to as much wind and it is more shallow.

      After next cold night, I’ll double check it.

  44. We’ve seen once already, during the Autumn, the Euro suddenly flip flop several runs, while the GFS went into a steadier mode (just comparing the 2, nothing else). At that point I remember going more with the GFS, for about a week, then it went back to “normal”. Looks like it may be time to do that again… ???

  45. imagine how cold it would have Tuesday morning had there been snow cover. Probably below zero in many places

  46. Darn! Was so busy playing with my new toy (iPhone4s) last night, I didn’t even notice the possible weekend snow is no more! As for age, I’m 53 with an awesome 22 year old son who tries his best to keep my thinking young. I’m sure he’s still chuckling this morning after helping me set up my first smartphone 🙂

      1. I like it, Hadi. Was a little intimidating at first, but seem to be getting the hang of it. My son suggests I go to an Apple class. Any weather apps you’d like to suggest?

        2. My mom just turned 75 this past November. She has a laptop, desktop and Iphone. She’s on facebook and twitter and texts messages me everyday.. She is so funny. Always looking forward to the next best thing. She is much more advanced than I am. She still works at a department store which keeps her busy.

          1. Your mom reminds me of myself. I got the iPad last summer so waited to upgrade my phone. Suspect I’ll do it this month. I still have 3GS. Apple is incredible. Do you have star walk app. Hold it to sky and it shows what you are seeing. My favorite

  48. Wouldn’t be interesting if January 13th is the pattern change date as that’s a Friday!!! Maybe an omen of what’s to come for the rest of winter:)

    1. There will be a snow event Mlk weekend. My gut tells me 1/14. this should happen. I have that entire day booked solid with things to do. Snow will foil everything, fine with me as its a holiday weekend. The bigger the storm that weekend the better for me.

  49. Here is the clipper Tom was talking about….

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120105%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_252_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=252&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=01%2F05%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

  50. Here is the precip, juicy but as we know this will change a million times.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120105%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_264_precip_p24.gif&fcast=264&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p24&cycle=01%2F05%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    1. Hadi,

      I understand what you are saying. I’m just saying, I will believe it when I see it. That is all. Bad record this season. Perhaps after the 1/12 system, it will,
      indeed change. We shall see. Let’s see if the Euro has it when it gets in range.

  55. Fwiw…the 15-day AccuWeather forecast has had snow for the 16th for the past 3 days now, if my count is correct. Most of the time, as probably most of you know, the forecast for a particular day usually changes radically the very next day.

    So perhaps it is the storm for the 16th…MLK Day itself?

    As for today’s NAO, I don’t like it all…short term or long term.

  56. I know this is a weather blog, and I do not wish to detract from that, but I want to send a personal note to Hadi on his heritage:

    Hadi, I read that you are originally from Damascus, Syria. That is fascinating. Damascus is a city I have always wanted to visit. I believe that in the inner city of Damascus there is a section which pre-dates the medieval era. Unfortunately, at present, travel to Damascus would not be a good idea, given the turbulence. I am hopeful for a new Syria some day, one in which there is no sectarian strife, there is democracy, and there is prosperity for the people and not just the elite. Syria has a proud history, and Syrian immigrants (though a relatively small community) have helped shape parts of Boston, including Chinatown, believe it or not, where a small Syrian community thrived until fairly recently.

  57. I guess we should not complain too much about our weather. We could be in Holland where they have been experiencing yet another dismal winter of no frost (parts have not seen the temperature dip below 32), gray skies, rain (lots of it on a daily basis), and wind (even more of that on an almost daily basis). And, I am not talking about a few days of rain or gray skies. I remember Novembers, Decembers, and Januarys when the sun just did not make an appearance at all. Moreover, it is dark until about 8:30 – 9am in the morning. So, you basically go through months of dark, dreary weather, occasionally interspersed with a week or two of cold, sunny weather, which the Dutch literally pray for every winter (skating is in their blood, though not inherent to their climate). Here is a video from the Dutch news website (do not worry, the video itself does not contain a word of Dutch, just a song “Who will stop the rain?”):

    http://nos.nl/l/tcm:5-1150859/

    1. That’s a really good video Joshua–thanks for sharing.

      What fits for landowners and engineers to have to constantly deal with storm surge.

  58. If you watch the video from the Dutch news website, one thing to keep in mind is you are not looking at the ocean, you are looking at the North Sea where normal waves are about half the size of ocean waves. That will give you some perspective on how powerful the storms are – they are called “northwester” or southwester” storms in Holland, depending on wind direction. Remember, west-southwest is the prevailing (dominant) wind in Holland, so once the train of Atlantic Lows gets going and there is no block over Scandinavia you can get hammered almost every day by rain and wind for a long time. Strangely enough, you get used to it after awhile.

    1. Joshua – GREAT video. I absolutely love days like that when the ocean is so active. I suspect day in and day out may be overkill but……….. I also found myself dancing in my seat to Credence Clearwater 🙂 Thanks for posting it.

  59. 12Z GFS is in.

    Hmmm….Some changes.

    1. The 1/16 system is Gone! Poof!
    2. The 1/12 event is depicted MUCH farther EAST than on previous runs! Interesting. Look at this at 168 hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F05%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=168&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    1. Note that the system is drawing in COLD air from the HIGH to the North of all things!! I wonder what the Euro will have to say?????

  60. I hope the EURO showing a colder solution. I gave that 1/12 system a 2 on the UGH meter yesterday since it was out there.
    Lets make a prediction on the 12z EURO run.
    I am going to stay its just west of New England but in a position where just a little wiggle room to the east could deliver a much diffferent outcome.

  61. Saw that OS, it looks further east and colder but still nothing for us in eastern mass. What is clear on the GFS is the cold after that storm.

  62. Joshua,

    I was born in Damascus to a Syrian father and American mother. I can’t agree with you more about Syria and Damascus. I was fortunate to travel back there in 2009 with the company I work for and it was a trip of a lifetime. You are correct about the dates of the inner part of Damascus. It is old Damascus, protected by 7 gates and roman runis everywhere. The history is like none in the world!! We were able to visit the ruins in Palmyra as well as Aleppo. Also went to Krak De Chevalier. It clearly is a mess right now, but I for one hoping that the Arab Spring will change life for the Syrian people as they are repressed of course unless you are wealthy.

  63. I knew there was a small Syrian population in the Boston area, but the area it dominated by the Armenian population. Great Middle Eastern markets in Watertown for sure!!

  66. If anyone follows Joe Bastardi’s tweets, he is really seeing a major pattern change very soon.
    One of his tweets read 10mb warming on European over the pole by 360 hrs reaches 50C!!! This is a huge event and will have N Hemisphere cold implications.

  68. Further east for sure but not close enough.

    I wish the other website showed the EURO past 180 hours! But yes OS it looks like a snowstorm if that track verfies. My guess is the EURO is a little too fast with that storm and we should see it hold off a day later.

    1. Something Else to watch!!!

      If we get the shift we want on the 1/12 system, then the next one is doomed
      to be OTS. I’d rather we get it on the first system, but most likely NOT in
      the cards. Then we’ll wait for the 2nd system.

  69. today partly sunny highs in the upper 30s
    tonight increasing clouds lows in the low 20s
    friday: cloudy becoming sunny . highs in the low 40s
    friday night : mostly cloudy lows in the lows in the low 30s
    saturday: warm and sunny highs in the low 50s
    saturday night clear lows in the 20s
    sunday through monday mostly sunny highs in the mid 30s lows in the low 20s
    tuesday and wednesday highs in the low 40s lows in the low 20s

    outlook. A series of low pressure waves will travel to the south of us .expect moderating temperatures as next week progresses.With the current zonal flow is what is keeping what we saw a few days ago around sunday to our south. A change in the get stream durring the middle of next week will allow A storm that looks to be effecting us around the 12th. Current indictations show the jet stream bringing this storm to far west(rain maker. ) A few models have hinted at it ending as snow as the storm pulls the cold in from the north. After this storm models are saying that it will get cold again and colder than what we saw this time and it might stick for longer than 2 days.

  70. today partly sunny highs in the upper 30s
    tonight increasing clouds lows in the low 20s
    friday: cloudy becoming sunny . highs in the low 40s
    friday night : mostly cloudy lows in the lows in the low 30s
    saturday: warm and sunny highs in the low 50s
    saturday night clear lows in the 20s
    sunday through monday mostly sunny highs in the mid 30s lows in the low 20s
    tuesday and wednesday highs in the low 40s lows in the low 20s

    outlook. A series of low pressure waves will travel to the south of us .expect moderating temperatures as next week progresses.With the current zonal flow is what is keeping what we saw a few days ago around sunday to our south. A change in the get stream durring the middle of next week will allow A storm that looks to be effecting us around the 12th. Current indictations show the jet stream bringing this storm to far west rain maker A few models have hinted at it ending as snow as the storm pulls the cold in from the north. After this storm models are saying that it will get cold again and colder than what we saw this time and it might stick for longer than 2 days.

  71. I think the end of the 12z EURO is baloney, way too flat and progressive, and the PV is way too far to the north.
    It’s nowhere near what the GFS is depicting.

  72. There r some things becoming more clearer, no snow over the next week to 10 days which brings us to around the 15th which I believe we get into a shot of cold and snow but then the question is how long does it stay like that, that’s the question, I can see a 7-12 day period from jan 15-25 only to go back to the old pattern to end the month, have a great day everyone.

    1. just think, we’re only seven or so weeks from March 1 when the sun will really start feeling good–warming the car dash to where you have to crack the window–that kind of stuff.

    1. Cool……question…….for example, when I look at the NAO, I have a general idea of what the measurement is….difference in pressure relative to norm between the semi-perminent low near Iceland/Greenland and the semi-perminent ridge in the Atlantic…..When I hear SOI, I have no idea what that is a measure of. Can you or anyone please explain ? Thanks !!!

          1. Thanks OS !! Now that explains the pressure readings for those 2 locations listed in the link Scott posted. Interesting…

  75. One thing I think the 12z GFS and 12z EURO are incredibly consistent with (today)are the 850 mb temps for next weeks (1/12) storm. They both show mild 850 temps, greater than 0 C, from the eastern Great Lakes eastward, covering all of New England, even up past the Canadian Border.

    1. Did you look at the 850 MB temps at the 168 hour mark of the 12Z GFS??

      Something is up with that.

      1. Indeed, looks like the 0 C isotherm moves down a bit into central New England. On the 168 hr surface reflection, that exact time seems to have the heaviest precip and the winds beginning to back ever so slightly as the low is projected just south of Long Island. So, maybe the model is cooling the column a bit during the heaviest precip.

        1. I wonder when dependent on heavy precip to cool the column enough for wet snow, what does the 850mb temps have to be ? I’d think they have to be below freezing because, in this case, with the boundary layer likely to be warmer than 0 C, I’d think the air several thousand feet up would need to be somewhat below freezing.

          1. Generally true, I suspect, however, it all depends. It could be barely freezing at 5,000 feet and Just a little above all the way to the
            surface and it could still snow. Depends on how
            intense the snow is. IF not intense enough, it would melt for sure.

            A met once told me that they like to see
            -3C or lower at 850MB for snow. But there is a pretty wide range where it “could” still snow, depending on a number of parameters.

  76. NWS office IN Taunton. Their take on the 1/12 system we have been discussing:

    WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…
    WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF IN TRACK/TIMING OF
    SOUTHERN STREAM LOW…IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT
    FOR SNE DUE TO LACK OF ANY DEEP COLD AIR WHICH IS DISPLACED WELL
    TO THE WEST ASSOCD WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF. HOWEVER…IT IS
    POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR FOR SOME ICE IN
    THE DISTANT INTERIOR…AND GFS EVEN POINTS TO SOME SNOW ALTHOUGH
    THIS IS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO IN THIS PATTERN.

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