76 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – December 22 2021”
Thanks TK.
There has been 5,600+ in-flight incidents.
4,000 have been mask related.
If my math is correct = 71%+
Math is correct sir.
I will never understand how a simple piece of cloth to protect yourself and others has become a flash point. I’m sad every day that Mac’s sister is no longer with us, but if there is anything positive, it is that she doesn’t have to see this.
Thanks TK!
So I was looking at the CDC data provided by Hadi a few days ago – namely –
Latest CDC data by vaccine status:
Unvaccinated: 451 cases per 100k
Vaccinated: 134 cases per 100k
Boosted: 48 cases per 100k
Unvaccinated: 6.1 deaths per 100k
Vaccinated: 0.5 deaths per 100k
Boosted: 0.1 deaths per 100k
So based on the above numbers (which are no doubt stale due to Omicron) – is my math correct that this translates to 1 case of covid out of every 158 people in the US thus far and 1 death from Covid out of every 14,925 people thus far?
If my math is correct the numbers – while horrifying (don’t get me wrong!) – aren’t actually as high/bad as I would have thought in terms of likelihood for each individual person to catch Covid and/or die from Covid.
I have been trying desperately to maintain an objective stance on this pandemic and to understand the actual magnitude based on facts/data – but not to let myself be swayed by hysteria on either side. From what I can tell we seem to have 2 main camps – fear or denial. I guess I’m somewhere in the middle – healthy respect for this thing (I’m fully vaxxed, boostered and stay masked in public) – but I am no longer in “panic mode” and trying to live my life w/o Covid being entirely center stage all the time until/unless it is warranted. (Although right now with Omicron shooting us to the moon I am definitely much more conservative re outings etc than I was a few weeks ago.)
That being said, I am leaning more and more towards individual choice on how to view and maneuver through this thing. Given that the highest risk of variants really cooking successfully seems to be in immunocompromised HIV patients in Africa – I don’t support wholeheartedly the argument in favor of forcing others to get vaxxed if they don’t want to get injected in order to stop mutations. I do support the argument that we should have a feeling of individual responsibility to get the shots for our health care workers and to not strain the system unnecessarily- but I think perhaps if one truly does not want the shot that may be a viable counter argument – as let’s be honest here – the vaccines are indeed new tech so we cannot say for sure that we know they are safe long term bc there isn’t yet a long term study – we are the long term study.
Please don’t hesitate to push back on this post/my thoughts if you see it differently. I am truly trying to understand this situation without too much spin – and the intelligent and thoughtful comments here always give me pause and also new data!
Thanks always for the incredible information provided here daily and hope everyone is staying safe and approaching this situation in whatever way feels most comfortable for themselves. I think it’s so sad that in a time to pull together we have – as a society – decided instead to turn on one another. But I guess that’s what fear does, right? I just wonder if the current level of extreme fear is actually warranted. It might be but I’m not completely convinced.
The problem is that the unvaccinated can then ultimately cause sickness and even death in others because of their “individual” choice. That is wrong. When a choice affects the lives of others, then it should no longer be a choice. That is what people refuse to get. Sorry to disagree with you on this point and on this point I will not budge.
I had a big fight with my brother who refuses to get vaccinated.
I told him he was part of the problem, but hey he did his
“research” and so it goes.
Disagreement is a good thing if handled respectfully and as you know I greatly respect you JpDave! However I think it’s no longer just an issue of unvaccinated bc of breakthroughs and trying to weigh it against individual choice if one is equally frightened of the vaccine.
However no easy answers for sure!
Yes, I understand. At first there was no way my wife
and I were going to get vaccinated, however, over time,
we saw that it was, given the state of the pandemic, safe.
At least we would not go out unvaccinated. In other words if we chose not to get vaccinated, then we were not going to have that decision affect others.
In the end, we chose to get vaccinated, for our own good to be able to get out and to help others as well.
We just can’t bury our heads in the sand. We all need to do our part, and sadly, many are not.
“We all need to do our part, and sadly, many are not.”
Agree with this 1000 percent! And it applies to so many, many things…
As always, I enjoy reading your thoughts and views. I think extreme caution is warranted. I’d love to rely on individual responsibility but somewhere along the line in this country too many have lost the ability to care for much beyond themselves.
This I absolutely agree with and have said all along. “… as let’s be honest here – the vaccines are indeed new tech so we cannot say for sure that we know they are safe long term bc there isn’t yet a long term study – we are the long term study.”.
To me that especially applies to our children and to our unborn who are developing. I’ve seen firsthand how having an vaccine that has been approved, tested and accepted for years can impact a developing fetus. You are right that we are all the long term study.
I believe in absolute masking. I believe in vaccine passports coupled with tests because being vaccinated is no longer a free pass or just tests If not vaccinated. We have tools and can use them. But we cannot seem to get our act together.
Great thoughts as always Vicki! I do think though that we thus end up at the classic political divide re big govt vs conservative view or even in the extreme libertarianism – my understanding is the “other side” views mandates & passes as a slippery slope to becoming China – so to speak. And they truly believe governmental intervention is almost never beneficial, effective or the best way to approach an issue. (See communism in practice – although Matxism is beautiful in theory..)
It’s such an unclear time and I think maybe the missing part is having compassion for all views and not delegitimizating or stigmatizing the “other side” – note this does not apply to you! You are compassionate in the extreme. Just thoughts in general.
The finger pointing and attacking (on both sides) does not seem to get us anywhere but further apart and thus more unstable and vulnerable as a country.
Mama Mia, the relative numbers provided by CDC – though outdated – are accurate. That is, the relative risks from Covid. BUT, your number – 1 out of every 14,925 dead from Covid – is not. It’s about 1 out of every 400 Americans, and in some states like Massachusetts that number is lower. Also, death is th emost serious outcome, obviously. But, hospitalizations, long Covid, etc … are very important as well. The data on those hospitalized and survived Covid (initially) are concerning. Covid does a number of MANY vital organs. The aftermath will be quite bad.
I am not an alarmist. This is not the plague of the 1300s. But, it’s as bad as a modern pandemic gets.
Thanks Joshua!
I’m confused though – doesn’t 7 deaths per 100k mean about 1 out of 15k?
Unvaccinated: 6.1 deaths per 100k
Vaccinated: 0.5 deaths per 100k
Boosted: 0.1 deaths per 100k
Oh and I couldn’t agree more regarding the potential catastrophic effects of Long Covid on our health care system and our society as a whole! I was just confused trying to find out the actual correct data…
Also, U.S. deaths per million inhabitants – so the death rate – is back up to number one among wealthy, industrialized nations. That is, the U.S. has the WORST record among wealthy, industrialized nations.
This is just a test. I replied to Mama Mia above and it did not appear.
Weird.
I had more details, but the gist was that according to Worldometer, there has been one death per 400 people and one case per 6.3 people.
That is alarming no matter how you slice and dice it.
Definitely I agree if these are the numbers – was my number crunching wrong?
Again CDC –
Unvaccinated: 451 cases per 100k
Vaccinated: 134 cases per 100k
Boosted: 48 cases per 100k
Unvaccinated: 6.1 deaths per 100k
Vaccinated: 0.5 deaths per 100k
Boosted: 0.1 deaths per 100k
So about 600 cases per 100lk or 7 deaths per 100k people?
The thing I’ve noticed is the data is all over the place… again I’m trying to understand the reality minus spin!
Trust Joshua’s numbers.
I have a feeling that these are numbers for some particular recent time period rather than for the entire duration of the pandemic.
If that’s the case that would explain it. 1 out of 400 Americans dying from Covid is light years from 1 out of 15,000.
But again -I’m fibding it’s alarmingly difficult to get accurate data.
I do trust Joshua though – entirely. We are so lucky to have his wisdom and expertise here!
Mama Mia, I’m unsure what the CDC data is specifically referring to. Perhaps it’s only including Delta numbers. I don’t know. I think the relative risk implied by the numbers is accurate, meaning greatest risk by far is unvaccinated, then 2-dose vaccinated, and then 3-dose or booster vaccinated.
As SClarke mentioned, we’ve had >800,000 Covid-19 deaths. The number is actually ~825,000 currently. Divide that number by our population of 330 million and you get 0.0025, or 1 in 400.
That makes sense!
I have been trying to wrap my head around the CDC numbers and it didn’t make sense…
For an age breakdown, it’s clear the greatest risk is in the >65. About 615,000 of the deaths have occurred in this age group, with about 210,000 in the <65. In the `Wuhan,' Gamma (`Italy' variant) and Alpha (`UK' variant) the average age of death was ~81. In the Delta wave the average age diminished to ~74. Obviously unknown what Omicron will do. I do believe it's modestly less severe (but do NOT know this for sure), but for some reason it's impacting the very young, say, 0 to 10, much more than other variants. Vicki pointed this out yesterday. I've also been reading accounts of this from SA and the UK.
And in Massachusetts, the average age of Death is 73.
My Wife and I are in this critical age group and thus
fear this virus more than those that are much younger.
I think the evidence is mounting for Omicron impacting little ones much more than previous variants.
All deaths are sad. The death – or even traumatic experience of a hospitalization – of an infant/toddler is devastating.
Frightening!! and most sad.
Yes. This may be the most concerning piece of data I’ve seen to date. France is having record numbers of cases. We knew that. But the fact that it’s having such an immediate impact on very young children is alarming. Of course, most very young children who get Omicron will be fine. But, believe me, it’s not normal that 145 very young children get hospitalized for a respiratory illness on one day in a country the size of France: 67 million people.
I presume that all or most of these are Omicron?
Probably. Not all, as I don’t think Omicron is more than 70% of cases in France yet. But, it’s the majority.
I’m trying to get a sense of how they report and with what frequency. It looks like France and the UK (and Florida) report a bit haphazardly. So, for example, on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, but not every day. So, this means that the 145 hospitalized were NOT all hospitalized today (I think). But, they were likely hospitalized over a 2-day period. Still a LOT of hospitalizations of little children.
It is also not right that we place children where they seem to be at higher risk with each variant.
I know people are sick of me saying this. But these are our children and if we are having just under 1700 per day in our state alone, why are we considering putting the children back in danger after Christmas when omicron may well be the main variant in schools. Two weeks will not harm anyone. The alternative may.
Need I say that I totally agree.
The sensible thing to do right now is extend the
Christmas Vacation by at least 2 weeks and re-evaluate.
Agree. It is truly simple common sense.
How is your daughter. And Mrs OS?
Both are OK. Thank you.
Good news. Thank you!
Biden insists it is not “March 2020”.
I insist it is not “March 2019” either. 🙁
Daily Covid-19 admissions to hospital in London have doubled in one week: From 157 to 301. Latest data is from December 20th. No update yet for yesterday or today. I’m curious to know what they changes are as the biggest jumps occurred on December 19th and 20th. Cases over this time period have more than tripled. That’s the the decoupling I’m talking about between the case and hospitalization curves. They’re not parallel. However, it’s a degree of decoupling not a full decoupling. Omicron would be less worrisome if there was full decoupling: Case increases did not lead to rising hospitalizations. But, we’re clearly not there yet, despite boosters in Britain being >2 times our rate, and vaccination rate itself being a 15 percentage points better than ours.
Hmmm, interesting, but disturbing.
I fear Omicron may be more formidable than we think.
I think Omicron being “formidable” in adults is largely a function of its increased transmissibility. I do believe Omicron is less severe than Delta in adults, BUT significantly increased transmissibility outweighs less severity, translating into rising hospitalizations.
In children 0 to 10 I think Omicron is more severe than previous variants. So, here the “formidable” part is both in terms of severity and transmissibility.
The jury is still out on all of this. Given that we’re barely a few weeks into this wave, nothing that’s released now in terms of data can be said to be definitive. Everything needs to be monitored, along with confounding factors such as immunity levels in the population (natural and vaccine).
As is invariably the case, the U.S. will be impacted worse by Omicron than EVERY other wealthy, industrialized nation, due to:
– Worse vaccination and booster rates – and lack of a systematic program of boosting that ensures that all or nearly all at-risk folks are boosted;
– Worse underlying health conditions;
– Grossly tiered healthcare system, in which the most vulnerable groups have the worst access to healthcare (from testing to actual treatments);
– Almost no mitigation measures in place.
Will the U.S. conduct a post-mortem analysis of our healthcare system and pandemic preparedness? No. Not really. We’re definitely a “let’s move on” population. I see little or no change to our overall system, post Covid-19.
From the Globe. Joshua, is this the pill that had some fairly serious side effects.
“ BREAKING NEWS ALERT
US health regulators on Wednesday authorized the first pill against COVID-19, a Pfizer drug that Americans will be able to take at home to head off the worst effects of the virus.
The long-awaited milestone comes as US cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all rising and health officials warn of a tsunami of new infections from the Omicron variant that could overwhelm hospitals.
The drug, Paxlovid, is a faster, cheaper way to treat early COVID-19 infections, though initial supplies will be extremely limited. All of the previously authorized drugs against the disease require an IV or an injection.”
It’s good news on balance. But it’s not a game changer, for a multitude of reasons which I can’t get into right now.
The game-changing event will occur when transmission subsides and ebbs away. Hopefully in the spring of 2022. But, before we get there we’ll have a lot more misery to endure.
This adaptation of an Edward Hopper painting kind of says it all. While I was certainly not wearing a hazmat suit last night, when I walked by several packed bars I did wonder. https://twitter.com/choo_ek/status/1473719319293005825
Good grief that is a long list of possible problems.
Sorry … I meant to thank you but my head was spinning
Is the pill supposed to be an alternative to the vaccine or is it for those who already have Covid-19?
For folks who have tested positive. Think of it as Tamflu. Should reduce illness
I know many will get tired of me saying this, close everything but schools.
I’m not tired of hearing you say you think schools should stay open. I sure don’t agree, but it in no way means you cannot have an opinion
ditto
ABC News should win an award for most confusing headline:
“COVID-19 live updates: Delta says omicron surge may create significant disruptions”
Has anyone heard about this “viral blizzard” for January and February? Sounds very scary to say the least.
I guess this is going to be a lot worse winter than last.
No, Philip. Not only is this NOT March 2020, it is also NOT last winter. I mean it. We have vaccines, boosters, and treatments, which have blunted the impact of the Delta wave and will further blunt the impact of Omicron. This is NOT to say the situation isn’t serious. It is. We’re losing 1,400 people every day. But it is not like last January when in our worst weeks we were losing 3,850 every day. Could the current 7-day average increase? Yes. But, my best guess at this time is that it may reach 2,000 at its peak.
Philip, the viral blizzard is happening right now and it will last several more weeks. I don’t think it continues to grow in size into late January/February. My guess is it peaks before MLK day. But, keep in mind Delta peaked in late August and still impacted us all right through today. I never like it when people say, oh well it peaked, we’re good. Unless there’s exponential decline after the peak, we’re not good.
Today’s MA Covid Dahsboard, 7,817 new cases today!!!!
This is a headline from Jeremy Faust. Can Biden set nationwide mandates. I know I knew the answer to that once but….
“Breaking News: 62 US counties likely at or over 100% hospital capacity. “Circuit breakers” may be needed in those areas.
52 more counties may join them soon. Our new dashboard helps officials determine when hospitals are at risk of overflowing.”
School positives come out tomorrow. I pray they have decreased even if just a little.
Found this re a presidential mandate. I’m not sure Biden has delivered on the promises he made. Anyone?
If hospitals are overwhelmed, I would think a state of emergency could be declared ?
I wonder if Biden could release nat guards on the condition that a state mask mandate be in place.
Many hospitals are indeed at a breaking point. It’s a twin problem: 1. Covid-19 surge; 2. Healthcare workers out sick with Covid-19. Biden should indeed release the national guard everywhere to assist with hospitals.
and how many workers were fired or quit because they refused to get vaccinated????
I can’t find if any were. But that doesn’t mean they were not. Hmmm
I agree. But what good does it do if we don’t take steps to curb the cases in tandem with the national guard
One example of the many times schools closed due to flu in the past. The school mentioned had 120 cases. And we only had slightly less than 1700 a day last week.
U.S. Covid update: Biggest one-day increase in cases since January
– New cases: 243,619
– Average: 167,477 (+13,685)
– States reporting: 49/50
– In hospital: 68,883 (+593)
– In ICU: 16,450 (-27)
– New deaths: 2,057
– Average: 1,401 (+5)
The only positive bit of news is that ICU numbers (net) went down, but the trend this week has been up. And of course many of the deaths today – 2,057 – left the ICU, but also this world.
I couldn’t sleep well last night thinking about how poor our response has been to Covid. I think Biden’s heart is in it, but his willpower/determination is limited. Philip made a great point yesterday. Why did Biden speak in the afternoon, when almost no-one is watching. Why not prime time? If it’s an emergency it should be prime time. This is what other leaders in other countries do. Also, why is Biden waiting until January – 2 weeks from now – to send out the Covid-19 tests (or provide an online option to have it delivered by pharmacies)? The wave could have peaked by the first week or 2 in January. Also, why did the President not even mention gathering sizes indoors, packed bars, etc …? This was a missed opportunity to alert Americans to risks.
I agree with your assessment of our president. His heart is in I but so much of what he said was just flat out wrong. And what he didn’t say, as you pointed out, was not acceptable.
Philip is right. Not only didn’t he speak at prime time…..most had no idea when he would speak.
I spoke with Mac’s twin in CA. So far its hospitals are doing all right. Boosters are pie simple to get in CA. At home tests are impossible to find as they are here. He was surprised to hear MA hospitals are struggling. He was literally speechless at the numbers in our schools. My youngest said she thinks MA numbers may be worse than FL. ???
I do not think she is correct re Ma and FL.
JPD. I asked my BIL about folks in CA being fired if they did not vaccinate. He didn’t know about professions other than healthcare. They were let go. They can reapply if they vaccinate.
I know some healthcare workers were fired in MA
C-19 for 12-23 is ready.
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Thanks TK.
There has been 5,600+ in-flight incidents.
4,000 have been mask related.
If my math is correct = 71%+
Math is correct sir.
I will never understand how a simple piece of cloth to protect yourself and others has become a flash point. I’m sad every day that Mac’s sister is no longer with us, but if there is anything positive, it is that she doesn’t have to see this.
Thanks TK!
So I was looking at the CDC data provided by Hadi a few days ago – namely –
Latest CDC data by vaccine status:
Unvaccinated: 451 cases per 100k
Vaccinated: 134 cases per 100k
Boosted: 48 cases per 100k
Unvaccinated: 6.1 deaths per 100k
Vaccinated: 0.5 deaths per 100k
Boosted: 0.1 deaths per 100k
So based on the above numbers (which are no doubt stale due to Omicron) – is my math correct that this translates to 1 case of covid out of every 158 people in the US thus far and 1 death from Covid out of every 14,925 people thus far?
If my math is correct the numbers – while horrifying (don’t get me wrong!) – aren’t actually as high/bad as I would have thought in terms of likelihood for each individual person to catch Covid and/or die from Covid.
I have been trying desperately to maintain an objective stance on this pandemic and to understand the actual magnitude based on facts/data – but not to let myself be swayed by hysteria on either side. From what I can tell we seem to have 2 main camps – fear or denial. I guess I’m somewhere in the middle – healthy respect for this thing (I’m fully vaxxed, boostered and stay masked in public) – but I am no longer in “panic mode” and trying to live my life w/o Covid being entirely center stage all the time until/unless it is warranted. (Although right now with Omicron shooting us to the moon I am definitely much more conservative re outings etc than I was a few weeks ago.)
That being said, I am leaning more and more towards individual choice on how to view and maneuver through this thing. Given that the highest risk of variants really cooking successfully seems to be in immunocompromised HIV patients in Africa – I don’t support wholeheartedly the argument in favor of forcing others to get vaxxed if they don’t want to get injected in order to stop mutations. I do support the argument that we should have a feeling of individual responsibility to get the shots for our health care workers and to not strain the system unnecessarily- but I think perhaps if one truly does not want the shot that may be a viable counter argument – as let’s be honest here – the vaccines are indeed new tech so we cannot say for sure that we know they are safe long term bc there isn’t yet a long term study – we are the long term study.
Please don’t hesitate to push back on this post/my thoughts if you see it differently. I am truly trying to understand this situation without too much spin – and the intelligent and thoughtful comments here always give me pause and also new data!
Thanks always for the incredible information provided here daily and hope everyone is staying safe and approaching this situation in whatever way feels most comfortable for themselves. I think it’s so sad that in a time to pull together we have – as a society – decided instead to turn on one another. But I guess that’s what fear does, right? I just wonder if the current level of extreme fear is actually warranted. It might be but I’m not completely convinced.
The problem is that the unvaccinated can then ultimately cause sickness and even death in others because of their “individual” choice. That is wrong. When a choice affects the lives of others, then it should no longer be a choice. That is what people refuse to get. Sorry to disagree with you on this point and on this point I will not budge.
I had a big fight with my brother who refuses to get vaccinated.
I told him he was part of the problem, but hey he did his
“research” and so it goes.
Disagreement is a good thing if handled respectfully and as you know I greatly respect you JpDave! However I think it’s no longer just an issue of unvaccinated bc of breakthroughs and trying to weigh it against individual choice if one is equally frightened of the vaccine.
However no easy answers for sure!
Yes, I understand. At first there was no way my wife
and I were going to get vaccinated, however, over time,
we saw that it was, given the state of the pandemic, safe.
At least we would not go out unvaccinated. In other words if we chose not to get vaccinated, then we were not going to have that decision affect others.
In the end, we chose to get vaccinated, for our own good to be able to get out and to help others as well.
We just can’t bury our heads in the sand. We all need to do our part, and sadly, many are not.
“We all need to do our part, and sadly, many are not.”
Agree with this 1000 percent! And it applies to so many, many things…
As always, I enjoy reading your thoughts and views. I think extreme caution is warranted. I’d love to rely on individual responsibility but somewhere along the line in this country too many have lost the ability to care for much beyond themselves.
This I absolutely agree with and have said all along. “… as let’s be honest here – the vaccines are indeed new tech so we cannot say for sure that we know they are safe long term bc there isn’t yet a long term study – we are the long term study.”.
To me that especially applies to our children and to our unborn who are developing. I’ve seen firsthand how having an vaccine that has been approved, tested and accepted for years can impact a developing fetus. You are right that we are all the long term study.
I believe in absolute masking. I believe in vaccine passports coupled with tests because being vaccinated is no longer a free pass or just tests If not vaccinated. We have tools and can use them. But we cannot seem to get our act together.
Great thoughts as always Vicki! I do think though that we thus end up at the classic political divide re big govt vs conservative view or even in the extreme libertarianism – my understanding is the “other side” views mandates & passes as a slippery slope to becoming China – so to speak. And they truly believe governmental intervention is almost never beneficial, effective or the best way to approach an issue. (See communism in practice – although Matxism is beautiful in theory..)
It’s such an unclear time and I think maybe the missing part is having compassion for all views and not delegitimizating or stigmatizing the “other side” – note this does not apply to you! You are compassionate in the extreme. Just thoughts in general.
The finger pointing and attacking (on both sides) does not seem to get us anywhere but further apart and thus more unstable and vulnerable as a country.
Mama Mia, the relative numbers provided by CDC – though outdated – are accurate. That is, the relative risks from Covid. BUT, your number – 1 out of every 14,925 dead from Covid – is not. It’s about 1 out of every 400 Americans, and in some states like Massachusetts that number is lower. Also, death is th emost serious outcome, obviously. But, hospitalizations, long Covid, etc … are very important as well. The data on those hospitalized and survived Covid (initially) are concerning. Covid does a number of MANY vital organs. The aftermath will be quite bad.
I am not an alarmist. This is not the plague of the 1300s. But, it’s as bad as a modern pandemic gets.
Thanks Joshua!
I’m confused though – doesn’t 7 deaths per 100k mean about 1 out of 15k?
Unvaccinated: 6.1 deaths per 100k
Vaccinated: 0.5 deaths per 100k
Boosted: 0.1 deaths per 100k
Oh and I couldn’t agree more regarding the potential catastrophic effects of Long Covid on our health care system and our society as a whole! I was just confused trying to find out the actual correct data…
Also, U.S. deaths per million inhabitants – so the death rate – is back up to number one among wealthy, industrialized nations. That is, the U.S. has the WORST record among wealthy, industrialized nations.
This is just a test. I replied to Mama Mia above and it did not appear.
Weird.
I had more details, but the gist was that according to Worldometer, there has been one death per 400 people and one case per 6.3 people.
That is alarming no matter how you slice and dice it.
Definitely I agree if these are the numbers – was my number crunching wrong?
Again CDC –
Unvaccinated: 451 cases per 100k
Vaccinated: 134 cases per 100k
Boosted: 48 cases per 100k
Unvaccinated: 6.1 deaths per 100k
Vaccinated: 0.5 deaths per 100k
Boosted: 0.1 deaths per 100k
So about 600 cases per 100lk or 7 deaths per 100k people?
The thing I’ve noticed is the data is all over the place… again I’m trying to understand the reality minus spin!
Trust Joshua’s numbers.
I have a feeling that these are numbers for some particular recent time period rather than for the entire duration of the pandemic.
If that’s the case that would explain it. 1 out of 400 Americans dying from Covid is light years from 1 out of 15,000.
But again -I’m fibding it’s alarmingly difficult to get accurate data.
I do trust Joshua though – entirely. We are so lucky to have his wisdom and expertise here!
Mama Mia, I’m unsure what the CDC data is specifically referring to. Perhaps it’s only including Delta numbers. I don’t know. I think the relative risk implied by the numbers is accurate, meaning greatest risk by far is unvaccinated, then 2-dose vaccinated, and then 3-dose or booster vaccinated.
As SClarke mentioned, we’ve had >800,000 Covid-19 deaths. The number is actually ~825,000 currently. Divide that number by our population of 330 million and you get 0.0025, or 1 in 400.
That makes sense!
I have been trying to wrap my head around the CDC numbers and it didn’t make sense…
For an age breakdown, it’s clear the greatest risk is in the >65. About 615,000 of the deaths have occurred in this age group, with about 210,000 in the <65. In the `Wuhan,' Gamma (`Italy' variant) and Alpha (`UK' variant) the average age of death was ~81. In the Delta wave the average age diminished to ~74. Obviously unknown what Omicron will do. I do believe it's modestly less severe (but do NOT know this for sure), but for some reason it's impacting the very young, say, 0 to 10, much more than other variants. Vicki pointed this out yesterday. I've also been reading accounts of this from SA and the UK.
And in Massachusetts, the average age of Death is 73.
My Wife and I are in this critical age group and thus
fear this virus more than those that are much younger.
This is a French tweet. Important. It says that today in France 145 infants/toddlers were hospitalized, and 27 put on a ventilator. https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/1473562292247793670
I think the evidence is mounting for Omicron impacting little ones much more than previous variants.
All deaths are sad. The death – or even traumatic experience of a hospitalization – of an infant/toddler is devastating.
Frightening!! and most sad.
Yes. This may be the most concerning piece of data I’ve seen to date. France is having record numbers of cases. We knew that. But the fact that it’s having such an immediate impact on very young children is alarming. Of course, most very young children who get Omicron will be fine. But, believe me, it’s not normal that 145 very young children get hospitalized for a respiratory illness on one day in a country the size of France: 67 million people.
I presume that all or most of these are Omicron?
Probably. Not all, as I don’t think Omicron is more than 70% of cases in France yet. But, it’s the majority.
I’m trying to get a sense of how they report and with what frequency. It looks like France and the UK (and Florida) report a bit haphazardly. So, for example, on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, but not every day. So, this means that the 145 hospitalized were NOT all hospitalized today (I think). But, they were likely hospitalized over a 2-day period. Still a LOT of hospitalizations of little children.
It is also not right that we place children where they seem to be at higher risk with each variant.
I know people are sick of me saying this. But these are our children and if we are having just under 1700 per day in our state alone, why are we considering putting the children back in danger after Christmas when omicron may well be the main variant in schools. Two weeks will not harm anyone. The alternative may.
Need I say that I totally agree.
The sensible thing to do right now is extend the
Christmas Vacation by at least 2 weeks and re-evaluate.
Agree. It is truly simple common sense.
How is your daughter. And Mrs OS?
Both are OK. Thank you.
Good news. Thank you!
Biden insists it is not “March 2020”.
I insist it is not “March 2019” either. 🙁
Daily Covid-19 admissions to hospital in London have doubled in one week: From 157 to 301. Latest data is from December 20th. No update yet for yesterday or today. I’m curious to know what they changes are as the biggest jumps occurred on December 19th and 20th. Cases over this time period have more than tripled. That’s the the decoupling I’m talking about between the case and hospitalization curves. They’re not parallel. However, it’s a degree of decoupling not a full decoupling. Omicron would be less worrisome if there was full decoupling: Case increases did not lead to rising hospitalizations. But, we’re clearly not there yet, despite boosters in Britain being >2 times our rate, and vaccination rate itself being a 15 percentage points better than ours.
Hmmm, interesting, but disturbing.
I fear Omicron may be more formidable than we think.
I think Omicron being “formidable” in adults is largely a function of its increased transmissibility. I do believe Omicron is less severe than Delta in adults, BUT significantly increased transmissibility outweighs less severity, translating into rising hospitalizations.
In children 0 to 10 I think Omicron is more severe than previous variants. So, here the “formidable” part is both in terms of severity and transmissibility.
The jury is still out on all of this. Given that we’re barely a few weeks into this wave, nothing that’s released now in terms of data can be said to be definitive. Everything needs to be monitored, along with confounding factors such as immunity levels in the population (natural and vaccine).
As is invariably the case, the U.S. will be impacted worse by Omicron than EVERY other wealthy, industrialized nation, due to:
– Worse vaccination and booster rates – and lack of a systematic program of boosting that ensures that all or nearly all at-risk folks are boosted;
– Worse underlying health conditions;
– Grossly tiered healthcare system, in which the most vulnerable groups have the worst access to healthcare (from testing to actual treatments);
– Almost no mitigation measures in place.
Will the U.S. conduct a post-mortem analysis of our healthcare system and pandemic preparedness? No. Not really. We’re definitely a “let’s move on” population. I see little or no change to our overall system, post Covid-19.
From the Globe. Joshua, is this the pill that had some fairly serious side effects.
“ BREAKING NEWS ALERT
US health regulators on Wednesday authorized the first pill against COVID-19, a Pfizer drug that Americans will be able to take at home to head off the worst effects of the virus.
The long-awaited milestone comes as US cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all rising and health officials warn of a tsunami of new infections from the Omicron variant that could overwhelm hospitals.
The drug, Paxlovid, is a faster, cheaper way to treat early COVID-19 infections, though initial supplies will be extremely limited. All of the previously authorized drugs against the disease require an IV or an injection.”
It’s good news on balance. But it’s not a game changer, for a multitude of reasons which I can’t get into right now.
The game-changing event will occur when transmission subsides and ebbs away. Hopefully in the spring of 2022. But, before we get there we’ll have a lot more misery to endure.
This adaptation of an Edward Hopper painting kind of says it all. While I was certainly not wearing a hazmat suit last night, when I walked by several packed bars I did wonder. https://twitter.com/choo_ek/status/1473719319293005825
To Vicki’s point on the Pfizer pill: https://twitter.com/DataDrivenMD/status/1473710776728924161
Good grief that is a long list of possible problems.
Sorry … I meant to thank you but my head was spinning
Is the pill supposed to be an alternative to the vaccine or is it for those who already have Covid-19?
For folks who have tested positive. Think of it as Tamflu. Should reduce illness
I know many will get tired of me saying this, close everything but schools.
I’m not tired of hearing you say you think schools should stay open. I sure don’t agree, but it in no way means you cannot have an opinion
ditto
ABC News should win an award for most confusing headline:
“COVID-19 live updates: Delta says omicron surge may create significant disruptions”
Has anyone heard about this “viral blizzard” for January and February? Sounds very scary to say the least.
I guess this is going to be a lot worse winter than last.
No, Philip. Not only is this NOT March 2020, it is also NOT last winter. I mean it. We have vaccines, boosters, and treatments, which have blunted the impact of the Delta wave and will further blunt the impact of Omicron. This is NOT to say the situation isn’t serious. It is. We’re losing 1,400 people every day. But it is not like last January when in our worst weeks we were losing 3,850 every day. Could the current 7-day average increase? Yes. But, my best guess at this time is that it may reach 2,000 at its peak.
Going for a 7th booster, man gets arrested. Wonder what his antibody levels are like. https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1473740181144485898
I know there is nothing funny about Covid itself, but there is something funny about this.
MA hospitals are issuing an urgent plea. Yet we don’t even have a mask mandate.
https://imgur.com/a/bgCTMUP
Philip, the viral blizzard is happening right now and it will last several more weeks. I don’t think it continues to grow in size into late January/February. My guess is it peaks before MLK day. But, keep in mind Delta peaked in late August and still impacted us all right through today. I never like it when people say, oh well it peaked, we’re good. Unless there’s exponential decline after the peak, we’re not good.
Today’s MA Covid Dahsboard, 7,817 new cases today!!!!
https://ibb.co/CKvbbCw
Updated Graph since mid June
https://ibb.co/jWKP07k
Terrifying.
This is a headline from Jeremy Faust. Can Biden set nationwide mandates. I know I knew the answer to that once but….
“Breaking News: 62 US counties likely at or over 100% hospital capacity. “Circuit breakers” may be needed in those areas.
52 more counties may join them soon. Our new dashboard helps officials determine when hospitals are at risk of overflowing.”
School positives come out tomorrow. I pray they have decreased even if just a little.
Found this re a presidential mandate. I’m not sure Biden has delivered on the promises he made. Anyone?
If hospitals are overwhelmed, I would think a state of emergency could be declared ?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/01/politics/mask-mandate-fact-check/index.html
I wonder if Biden could release nat guards on the condition that a state mask mandate be in place.
Many hospitals are indeed at a breaking point. It’s a twin problem: 1. Covid-19 surge; 2. Healthcare workers out sick with Covid-19. Biden should indeed release the national guard everywhere to assist with hospitals.
and how many workers were fired or quit because they refused to get vaccinated????
I can’t find if any were. But that doesn’t mean they were not. Hmmm
I agree. But what good does it do if we don’t take steps to curb the cases in tandem with the national guard
One example of the many times schools closed due to flu in the past. The school mentioned had 120 cases. And we only had slightly less than 1700 a day last week.
https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna33520744
I found another country that may be as foolish as the US
https://twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1473727893092159491?s=21
Wise words.
https://twitter.com/bob_wachter/status/1473787871718825985?s=21
My latest is on why Omicron – though less severe – will still impact us (U.S.) worse than our peers. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2021/12/22/the-omicron-variant-may-be-less-severe-but-higher-transmissibility-may-cancel-out-the-effect-especially-in-the-us/?sh=74d85cf713de
U.S. Covid update: Biggest one-day increase in cases since January
– New cases: 243,619
– Average: 167,477 (+13,685)
– States reporting: 49/50
– In hospital: 68,883 (+593)
– In ICU: 16,450 (-27)
– New deaths: 2,057
– Average: 1,401 (+5)
The only positive bit of news is that ICU numbers (net) went down, but the trend this week has been up. And of course many of the deaths today – 2,057 – left the ICU, but also this world.
I couldn’t sleep well last night thinking about how poor our response has been to Covid. I think Biden’s heart is in it, but his willpower/determination is limited. Philip made a great point yesterday. Why did Biden speak in the afternoon, when almost no-one is watching. Why not prime time? If it’s an emergency it should be prime time. This is what other leaders in other countries do. Also, why is Biden waiting until January – 2 weeks from now – to send out the Covid-19 tests (or provide an online option to have it delivered by pharmacies)? The wave could have peaked by the first week or 2 in January. Also, why did the President not even mention gathering sizes indoors, packed bars, etc …? This was a missed opportunity to alert Americans to risks.
I agree with your assessment of our president. His heart is in I but so much of what he said was just flat out wrong. And what he didn’t say, as you pointed out, was not acceptable.
Philip is right. Not only didn’t he speak at prime time…..most had no idea when he would speak.
I spoke with Mac’s twin in CA. So far its hospitals are doing all right. Boosters are pie simple to get in CA. At home tests are impossible to find as they are here. He was surprised to hear MA hospitals are struggling. He was literally speechless at the numbers in our schools. My youngest said she thinks MA numbers may be worse than FL. ???
I do not think she is correct re Ma and FL.
JPD. I asked my BIL about folks in CA being fired if they did not vaccinate. He didn’t know about professions other than healthcare. They were let go. They can reapply if they vaccinate.
I know some healthcare workers were fired in MA
C-19 for 12-23 is ready.