Wednesday March 1 2023 Forecast (7:14AM)

119 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)

February hands off its active pattern to March which will carry it well over its first several days. First, a weak area of high pressure brings bright and dry weather to our region early today, but clouds will quickly move in as a low pressure disturbance approaches from the west later in the day. This system will bring a period of precipitation tonight, mainly rain that may start as snow in some areas, especially in northern MA northward. It moves out quickly later this evening, but on its heels is another low center destined to pass just to our north during Thursday morning and midday. As it drags a frontal boundary through, a new low center will try forming on that, but with the system moving along, the wet weather it brings to us will be exiting during the afternoon as drier air arrives with its departure. But this break won’t be lasting all that long either as the next storm system in line will be heading our way for later Friday into the weekend. How I believe this one will play out looks somewhat similar to the last 2 larger systems we’ve had – low pressure heading for the Great Lakes but redeveloping and moving out just to the south of New England. There will be a cold high pressure in place to the north, but the temperature profile for the storm will be somewhat marginal, and the low’s track will help determine where we see frozen vs. liquid precipitation and any combination of the two. Will try to lock this in a bit more next update. Timing for the system is late Friday (likely evening precipitation onset) through Saturday morning for steadiest precipitation, then a tapering off later Saturday and occasional showers of mainly snow possible through Sunday as a trough of low pressure lingers behind the departing storm.

TODAY: Watch for black ice on untreated surfaces until mid morning! Sunshine followed by clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable.,

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with some evening rain, may start as snow in some areas especially north and west of Boston. Lows 30-37 early, rising slightly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain in the morning and midday, with pockets of freezing rain possible well north and west of Boston early. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming NW 5-15 MPH later in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow/mix north, mix/ rain south. Lows 28-35. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Overcast with snow/mix north, snow/mix/rain south, steadiest in the morning. Early call snowfall potential – 4+ inches southern NH and northern MA, 2+ inches southern MA through northeastern CT and northern RI, under 2 inches South Coast. Highs 31-38. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow or rain showers. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)

Overall northwesterly air flow with chilly weather and a drier trend, but one or two disturbance can bring some mainly snow showers at times.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)

Chilly regime continues with a more important storm threat possible heading toward mid month.

119 thoughts on “Wednesday March 1 2023 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    As WxWatcher pointed out yesterday, our next system has a severe side to it before it arrives here. Next 3 days. Following is today, tomorrow and Friday’s highlighted areas from SPC. Tomorrow is particularly notable.

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0700_torn.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0700_wind.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0830.gif

  3. Thanks TK.

    There was a reporter on ABC’s GMA that was standing in the middle of a deserted I-80 in CA with tons of snow all around. He stated that the rates of snow were as much as 1 FOOT per hour!

  4. The snowfall rivalry “may” be now a runaway?

    Worcester 27.5” Boston 11.5”

    Oh well. 😉

    2. I would never call Boston/Worcester a rivalry when it comes to snowfall. That is virtually never in doubt. 🙂
      Maybe in other area? But I would be hard pressed to find
      one. 🙂
      There is NO comparison between Boston and Worcester.

    4. Never a rivalry when it’s been so one sided in history 🙂 This has never been as far as I know to be a competition.

      I would put PVD more as a rival since it’s much closer

  5. Thanks TK
    Boston will come out on top of NY for the snowfall standings. The baseball standings different story.

    1. Hahahaha. Although I enjoy having Philip following Boston/Worcester, Boston/New York is a true rivalry

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Although I am cautiously optimistic for a more frozen event Fri/Sat, I am realistic enough to know that the whole event can go down the toilet as has been the case much of this Winter.
    We still have a couple of days for the models to pin this down.

    12Z NAM is about to crank up. 🙂

  10. Thanks, TK.

    For winter lovers it just hasn’t been our year. And that’s okay. I’ve enjoyed counting the number of flakes that have fallen thus far (it seems I could have literally counted them this year), and, as I said yesterday, last weekend truly felt like winter.

    I’m not holding out much hope for this weekend, or really the rest of the month. Maybe some glop. Maybe a few somewhat cold days. But, I think that’s all she’ll write this year. I think old man winter needs to get back to the treadmill during the off-season, prepare to do a better job of blocking next season and shooing/kicking the southeast ridge away.

    1. Coastal development too late and too far WEST!!
      We just can’t win. Let’s see what the other guidance
      has to say.

      1. Not worried …….

        I think the NAM has a mild bias when systems appear in that 48-84 hr window, then it tends to correct as the system gets under 48 hrs.

    1. I think its got the right idea as the Greenland block, with low pressure aloft south of that and then confluent flow over New Brunswick and the Maritimes should help to hold a modest cold high to our north and northeast.

        1. I hope so too ! Selfishly, I am rooting for this one as it won’t have a school impact.

          I suspect the EURO might be slightly milder than the GFS, especially with mild air aloft.

            1. That is on the table as a possibility.

              I am, as you can tell, putting much more weight to a colder outcome.

              In our specific area, some decent amt of front end snow, with a potential mix to sleet or cold rain, ending as some light snow. Coming out of the system with a snow cover that at least Marshfield doesn’t have right now.

    1. It is ….. but it does have the same basic principal of a low feeling a block and being supressed underneath us.

      More good signs is my take away.

  21. I was reading all of the links and wishing the average person ….of which I am one….were reading this blog. Just today. He/she would hopefully see why forecasting is so difficult.

  22. Thanks TK.

    Models pretty consistent with a foot or more of snow in the Lake George area where we will be this weekend for a softball tournament. Tournament director already sent an email that it would not be cancelled unless NYS Police issues a travel ban. Only saving grace is the start time of the snow looks a little later than it was yesterday. If we leave after school Friday, should be able to make it there before the worst of the snow starts.

      1. I can’t imagine anybody would schedule an outdoor softball tournament on the first weekend of March………….

      2. It is. At the Adirondack Sports Dome. Which has collapsed twice due to the weight of the snow on the roof in the past 🙂

  24. UKMET looks OK as well

    850 MB

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=850th&rh=2023030112&fh=78&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Surface

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2023030112&fh=78&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Surface looks a little dicey, but as long as 850 looks good, I think we’re oK.

    Here is 10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023030112&fh=96&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=ukmet

    Well that doesn’t look so good.

    Let me check 925mb temps

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=925th&rh=2023030112&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Looks ok. So Where’s the problem?

    700 MB temps look fine.

    ???????????????????????????????????????????

      2. Keeping in mind all of that should primary be northern & western areas , still thinking you are going to have temperatures in the upper 30s Friday night going into Saturday for Boston down through the cape

  27. 18Z NAM NOT looking good if you want snow. Not out far enough yet, but leading up to event time here looks pretty SUCKY!

  30. I was amused and startled reading Mark’s laconic “and the (Adirondack) dome collapsed twice (in the past) due to heavy snow,” after having said in a previous post that his daughter is playing in a softball tournament in the dome during a major snowstorm.

    As Mike Tomlin says in this video to kids he’s invited to training camp: “Keep your eyes up” https://www.facebook.com/CBSSports/videos/mike-tomlin-saw-some-kids-fighting-in-the-street-stopped-and-spent-several-hours/599567281894058/

      3. Euro hasn’t been very good either. Just look at the last storm. GFS was much better within 72 hours. Coastal sections are screed on this one. Won off the water and we are cooked.

        The 00z NAM shuts everyone out in MA

  35. Just saw NWS snow map.
    Booooo
    1.6 for Boston. perhaps 2 inches in Jp
    most disappointing to say the least.

    2. Too many nuances negating snow in our area: marginal thermal profile, weak secondary low development, slight northward displacement of the secondary, and the easterly wind bringing in the marine layer. The outcome doesn’t seem too different from we just experienced.

    1. You make me smile. One flake here and my grandkids and their nana start to cheer. My uxbridge granddaughter txts me

      I love love it

  38. Thanks TK.

    Haven’t looked extensively, but tend to agree with your thoughts on the next storm and that the NWS map looks pretty good. Given some strong similarities to the last storm and a similar overall pattern, I’d guess that if we see shifts in the storm track, they will be slightly in the southward (colder) direction. Maybe even enough to bring a pretty solid event (4-6″+) into the Worcester area, maybe even parts of the 495 belt. But warm air aloft will likely remain an issue, and the surface cold is certainly not impressive either. Lack of available cold remains an issue for SNE this winter, though by now we’re starting to warm up the averages anyways.

    After this storm, the dry interlude begins…

    1. Thanks WxWatcher!
      The Brute SE Ridge has even been an issue when it’s not as much of an issue. 😉 It’s easily the most persistent version I have observed in all my time of observing such patterns.

      It’s been interesting for the last few storms in that yes, we have changed the pattern, clearly, as in flattening the ridge, and allowing colder air to seep over and down from the west and north, but not fully. It’s always just marginal and then easily scoured out, if not at the surface, then aloft, or both. I get the whole snow lovers being frustrated thing – but I think the pattern has been fascinating to watch this winter. 🙂

  39. I will be getting my car washed after this weekend storm with this drier pattern that looks to happen.

  40. Joshua … Much colder times ahead for Europe – pretty much the entire continent. Where it’s been cold it stays cold, and where it’s been warm it turns cold, over the next couple of weeks.

    It’s been one heck of a cold winter in good portions of Asia and a lot of Siberia, and some of that cold is heading toward Europe now. The parts of Europe that were already cold will just stay that way.

  41. 00z GFS holds serve with a colder scenario for Friday night/Sat:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023030200&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023030200&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    00z HRRR looked pretty cold at hour 48 at the end of its run as well. In fact the 540 line is even a touch further SW at hour 48 than the GFS:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023030200&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    00z NAM does not agree and is warmer and more ragged with the precipitation:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023030200&fh=57&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  42. Quite a difference of opinion between some of our TV folks with just 48 hours to go, showing you how we can come up with different ideas all looking at the same information…

    Example: Look at the interior portion of southeastern MA.
    Channel X has a coating to 1 inch.
    Channel Y has 3-6 inches.
    Channel Z is a song by the B-52’s. 😉

    1. Hmmm. I only saw Pete and Eric. They were very close I couldn’t find JR. Those are my guys. Are you saying athere are more???

      1. X was 5 and Y was 25 🙂
        I just caught each of them briefly after taking my brother’s dog out for her late evening bathroom break. 🙂

  43. Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    1h

    How about that 00z GFS?

    Pete Bouchard NBC10 Boston
    @PeteNBCBoston
    1h

    Nothing to see there…..except 2′ in S. NH. Talk about doubling down.

    Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    1h

    Hey at least it’s been consistent!

  44. World Climate Service
    @WorldClimateSvc
    Feb 28

    The latest CFSv2 MJO forecast is literally off the chart! This is easily the strongest CFSv2 phase 8 signal in recent years (data since 2015).

    As for the real world, the most negative RMM1 index on record (BOM data) was -3.5 in March 1997 (we know what happened next).

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1631128043170177025?s=20

    In addition to its potential implications for increased winter weather chances this month for us, it’s also a sign that El Nino may come on strong later this year.

  45. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2023030200&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=700th&rh=2023030200&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    8am Sat morning.

    Plymouth -Providence north, we’re chilly enough at 850mb

    Really close at 700 mb

    2pm

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2023030200&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=700th&rh=2023030200&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Definite cooling of the column above us.

    Sfc:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023030200&fh=63&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Logan and coast at 35F at mildest. Mild, yes, but not the 37F of Tuesday and this past Tuesday, even at 37F, when it came down hard enough, there was snow mixed in.

    I like 2-3 at Logan and my house, building to like 4 or so in JP and 5-8 in Worcester and Merrimack valley. Higher elevated closer to 8, lower elevated, closer to 5.

    Out in west central and western mass, even in northern portions, I like the mild air at 700 mb to more quickly get in aloft and so less snow and more sleet/ice as they will be closer to the initial primary, so, they mild air aloft will have an easier time moving in.

    Team colder 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. While Similar to Tuesday’s event, I agree with Tom’s take…crazy how 1 to 2 degree change can be the difference in very little snow to a moderate amount.

    2. Tom I know you’re one of the best teachers out there – and am I ever glad you chose that profession, but still part of me wonders if you really could have been an amazing meteorologist the way you strive to analyze and understand what’s going on while remaining open to learning from those who have experience. 🙂

      1. Thanks TK ! I really appreciate that !

        I have learned so much from you, WxWatcher, SAK and all our “family” here on your amazing blog.

        Lyndon State taught me some stuff, but its here that I’ve learned so much more !!

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