Thursday March 16 2023 Forecast (7:27AM)

85 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 16-20)

As we head through the final few days of winter toward the vernal equinox and the start of spring, we’ll have a little typical changeable March weather, but no major storminess to deal with during the next 5 days. High pressure to our southwest noses into this area for fair weather today, but there still exists enough pressure gradient between it and the offshore storm to make for a breezy day. A warm front brings cloudiness to the region as it passes through on Friday, but the chance of any rainfall is brief and minimal, favoring northwestern areas later in the day. Milder air arrives and will last into Saturday as a cold front pushes through the region early, with the greatest precipitation threat from that later Friday night and first thing Saturday in the form of rain showers, leaving the balance of Saturday dry, breezy, and cool. The coldest air behind that front waits until a secondary trough goes by early Sunday, and that day will be blustery and chilly with a sun/cloud mix (snow flurries stay in the mountains). High pressure builds in for a tranquil arrival of spring Monday – a cold start but a milder afternoon.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 28-35. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Considerable cloudiness. Mid to late afternoon showers possible, mainly well west and north of Boston. Highs 46-53, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts by late in the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy first thing with a passing rain shower possible, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW-W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 21-25)

Quiet weather the first part of the period, then we become vulnerable to unsettled weather thereafter with a cooling trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 26-30)

Active pattern with additional unsettled weather threats and near to below normal temperatures.

85 thoughts on “Thursday March 16 2023 Forecast (7:27AM)”

  5. Thanks, TK!

    Noticed that the Taunton River is quite swollen and is in minor flooding stage after the 2.38″ that fell during the storm. The river is at 8.68′ with the minor flood stage at 8′. The all-time record crest is 14.97′ on April 1, 2010.

    The great news is that my basement is bone dry!!! We had Busy Dog come two weeks ago and install a French drain system and stronger sump pump.

    2. Awesome news. My SILs family installed a French drain quite a while ago and I believe one of my neighbors did last summer.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Worcester 47.2” Boston 12.4”: some “rivalry”. 😉

    Boston 12.4” NYC 2.2” 🙂

  7. Coming out of a 3 year La Nina …… went to Golden Gate weather which tracks La Nina/El Nino since around 1950.

    In that time frame, I chose summers 1957, 1977 and 2002. Its my interpretation, which could be incorrect, that these summers followed a 3 year La Nina.

    Get the A/C’s ready ?????

    1957: (10) 90F days, cool August

    1977: (17) 90F days, including this gem of a July heatwave.
    (92, 98, 91, 98, 96, 102)

    2002: (22) 90F days, including an August heatwave of ….
    (90F, 90F, 97F, 101F, 94F, 94F, 96F, 95F)

    good news: I’m probably not choosing correct analog years and I don’t know how ALL the other teleconnections were behaving those 3 years.

    1. Well gee, Tom, aren’t you full of ducky news 😉 😉 🙂

      11 years ago this weekend we might have thought of ACs. I can’t recall if the temp during that period of days reached 80 but do believe several records were broken.

        1. After effects of Hunga Tonga eruption will probably cool things to some degree (pun possibly intended). 🙂

    3. I’m all for a hot summer but if I’m correct I thought Tk was seeing a cooler summer if you will .

        1. She is improving Vicki thanks . VNA comes out every other day to check vitals . I’ve been out for two weeks as the event took place two weeks this Sunday . I’m shooting for Sunday return date tentatively

    1. Probably close. Let’s say average of “about” 3 1/2 inches per month would yield 10 1/2 inches. BUT I think we have
      received MORE than average, so I’d bet that you are correct.

  15. Since it is relatively quiet, I thought I’d try some emojis from the WP list of possibles and then put together a list of what works and post here

    ❗ ❓ :bear: :star: ➡
    💡 🙄 😳 :mrgreen: 😈 👿

        1. Those are rhe ones that work (and don’t). If there is any interest, I’ll put together the list of emoji and keystrokes. Just let me know

  16. The average date of the last “inch” of snow for Boston is March 14. For the “pi” event, only 0.5 inch.

      1. Thanks Vicki. I imagine the folks from Worcester westward will really appreciate that sun strength! I wonder if any schools out there still closed.

        1. Good question. My son said north Adams didn’t get much at all but surrounding areas were inundated. I’d forgotten N Adams is in a valley.

          1. Back in the late 1970s, if we drove my dad’s mid 70s Datsun to Troy NY via Route 2, it had no power brakes or power steering, so we could shut the car off, put it in neutral, and roll 6 miles from Hairpin Turn to North Adams, very much in a valley. 🙂

  17. Some numbers for a good, fun question above ……….

    Per Taunton climate data and assuming I’m adding correctly ….

    Btwn Dec 1, 2022 and Mar 16th, 2023 …. Logan has received

    13.85 inches of precipitation

    Per Philip above, it has rec’d 12.4 inches of snow.

    So, we’ve been quite marginal on temps during snow.

    Even if one converted 1.45 inches of liquid to the 12.4 inches of snow, that would leave the remaining 12.4 inches of precip as all rain.

    I would think in an average winter, the left over precip that is rain would be less of a percentage of total precip fallen. This year, it must be over 90% of it. Lots of precip for not much snow. Speaks to the mildness/warmth.

    1. I’m think an average ratio would be more like 30% snow / 70% rain, some years as much as 40% snow / 60% rain.

      I guess that’s why its the average 🙂 🙂 🙂

  19. I just got 13 seed over a 4 seed correct in my Men’s NCAA Tournament bracket. 🙂

          1. I can honestly say he’s probably the biggest hockey fan I’ve ever known personally.

  20. “Top-5” or “Top-10” least snowiest for Boston?

    1. 9.0” = 1936-37
    2. 9.3” = 2011-12
    3. 10.3” = 1972-73
    4. 12.4” = 2022-23**
    5. 12.7” = 1979-80
    6. 14.9” = 1994-95
    7. 15.1” = 2001-02
    8. 15.8” = 2019-20
    9. 17.1” = 2006-07
    10. 18.1” = 1985-86

    1. That 1985-1986 winter was my first year at college and we were all excited to track the big winter storms from the U Lowell Weather Lab. We got to track a handful of 1-3 inch snow to sleet / freezing rain / rain events, and that was it.. HAHAHA!

            1. At least during that 1985-86 winter, in those days there weren’t a gazillion models to choose from like today. 😉

              2-3 at most?

              1. I seem to recall about four or five models that we would look at… Some reasonably reliable for the time… Others … Not so much….

              2. In thinking about it a little bit…

                I remember LFM being really the only short-range relatively newer model which I believe debuted in the winter of 1977 1978. In fact I think this model was relatively new when the Blizzard of 78 happened and there were forecasters who ignored the fact that it was predicting a huge storm for this area thinking that the model was new and probably was over forecasting it. I would have to verify that though..

                The MRF was our medium range forecast model… Basically a predecessor to the predecessor of the GFS. There were a couple of older models in use that were not very reliable. I remember one and I don’t remember it’s label but we called it the barotropic model and I gave it the nickname the dinosaur model.

                Ironically the ECMWF or European model debuted in the spring of 1985 and its first version but we did not get to see it for quite a while.

            2. It would take something pretty monumental to really vault them.

              It can happen of course…

  21. I was talking about long term weather with somebody earlier.

    I have a quiz: Does anybody remember Boston’s highest temp in 1992 and when it was? 🙂 This is easy if you’re great at stats and/or have a really good memory, but not easy otherwise.

    1. Late May…I don’t know date but it was a Saturday if I’m thinking of the right day. Daughter had one of her first horse shows

      1. I looked at a calendar. 16, 23,30 were the saturdays. I’m guessing 23 or 30. I think 16 was too early but it could be

        And then again I may be wayyyyy off

        1. It was May 23 1992. High temp 92. They only got to 90 or higher one more time, in August (91). No 90s in June or July.

          It came up because I was talking about volcanic eruption impacts. 1991 Pinatubo eruption gave us a mini year without a summer in 1992.

          The volcano factor (year after eruption) is something I’m thinking about when looking ahead to summer 2023. More to consider but that’s one factor..

          1. Yay. I remember another show June 18 maybe a year or two later that was horrific. And a 102 show in Farmington CT on the July 4 weekend that was 102. Then there are the storms where it rained all day …some on mothers or Father’s Day.

            And that, my friends, is how my memory works …sad

      2. In fact they postponed the fireworks until July 5. 🙂
        That was my 3rd year going (started in 1990) and I have been to every one of them since. 🙂

  22. The B’s 2-0 against Winnipeg in the 1st. So far they are actually managing the puck and making decent passes. Something they haven’t done a lot of in the past 5-6 games.

  24. This is just a test. I did ask TK if it is all right to do
    😛 : P
    🙁 : (
    : | : |
    😕 : ?
    🙂 : )
    😉 ; )
    😀 : D
    👿 : evil:
    😈 : twisted:
    :mrgreen: : mrgreen:
    😳 : oops:
    🙄 : roll:
    💡 : idea:

        1. They need one of these with a less pleasant face for the model runs that make you sick. 😉

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