Sunday September 24 2023 Forecast (7:59AM)

60 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

We sit in the lull between part 1 and part 2 of our latest stretch of unsettled weather to open autumn. The advanced moisture plume associated with Ophelia – which made a NC landfall as a strong TS and has since weakened, become post-tropical, and drifting northward – put up a battle against dry air eventually getting most of the region into the rain area during Saturday. The next moisture plume, more directly associated with the remnant low, will overspread our region slowly as the day goes on today, peak tonight and early Monday, then get pushed out from northwest to southeast as Monday ages, finally exiting via the South Coast by the evening hours. Upper level low pressure swings across the region Tuesday, but fairly uneventfully other than some additional cloudiness, and then finally high pressure builds in with a stretch of dry weather beginning at midweek.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Periods of showers and rain redeveloping from southwest to northeast during the afternoon hours. Highs 57-64, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Rain becoming most widespread. Lows 50-57. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy through mid afternoon with rain gradually diminishing northwest to southeast. Breaking clouds / partial clearing later in the day but may never reach the South Coast. Highs 60-67. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds – intervals of sun. Highs 60-67. Wind N 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 47-54. Wind N under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

High pressure will provide fair weather for the final 2 days of September along with warming temperatures. The first couple days of October are vulnerable to low pressure getting close again from the south with potential unsettled weather, but should move out again by the end of the period. That part of the forecast remains low confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)

Overall outlook is fairly dry with high pressure again in general control. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

60 thoughts on “Sunday September 24 2023 Forecast (7:59AM)”

  4. Only 0.12 inch at Logan yesterday. Obviously the downpour that Joshua experienced in his neighborhood was isolated.

  5. Thanks, TK.

    We haven’t had any real push of truly cooler (40s) and dryer (dps in low to mid 40s) air from Canada. Often by now we will have experienced at least one such push. And it looks like we’ll have to wait quite a bit longer for it to happen this year.

    1. Actually we have, 3 times.

      The dew point in Boston was below 50 on September 1st, late September 14th through early September 16th, and as recently as yesterday morning (when it was in the upper 40s).

  6. Thank you, TK!

    Brian James is from Fort Worth? Is he here permanently. I found him on Twitter but his tweets seemed to all be from FWTH

        1. To each his own. Plus, I can be very fuzzy.
          He just doesn’t do it for me. I am not in my comfort zone with him as I would be with Harvey, Eric or Pete.

      2. I’d agree on no Pete or Eric and I’ll toss in JR. He is straightforward. A bit sterile so might take some getting used to but I think that is because I’m just not used to his style

    1. Interesting. Thanks JJ. So he may not be permanently here. I noticed his profile said freelance remote broadcast met.

  9. That some blob of rain down around marshfield is a thick drizzle. The drops are a little bigger than drizzle, enough to be seen easily in puddles.

    1. Sounds like what we had yesterday morning. I was having trouble in what to call it. Lrizzle? Light rain drizzle 😀

  15. Looks like Natick may get around an inch from parts 1 and 2. Finally looking forward to a string of nice days. Great forecast TK.

  17. What shift does this Brian James work? I don’t get NBC-10 very often. Maybe I’ll check him out sometime but I’m like JPD, when it comes to these young tv mets especially, I am fussy as well.

    2. He’s a senior meteorologist and a weather producer. He is about 50 years old and it started as a storm chaser / weather reporter in the Oklahoma TV market, then had TV jobs in Michigan and Texas.

      He graduated college 7 years after I did. I consider that to still be my generation of mets. He broke into TV before the hype style became the thing that the producers and directors started to push. And I love the fact that he’s retained that traditional straight-up delivery. It gets the message across far better.

      Pete and JR do the same thing because they’ve been doing it for about the same amount of time. It’s my favorite delivery style. All three of them are gifted speakers.

  18. Is it me or, not that it will rain everywhere, but models seeming not to push rain very far away from the south coast, even into Tuesday ?????

    1. There was one thing that didn’t quite go the way I expected it to yesterday, and that was the amount of northward progress that one of those rain bands moved…

      It reminded me of what we see sometimes in the winter when there is a snow band that just kind of defies its model simulations and the atmosphere itself.

      Granted it didn’t drop all that much rain but it did wet areas that I thought would stay dry…

  22. Patriots finally won a game but it should not have been a close game.
    Patriots offense had over 300 yards of offense, the offense again was inconsistent which just tells me that the Oline is the weakest link on this team. It is not Mac Jones, its not really even the receivers. running backs want to run, but the oline is not getting anything done. We need to get back to play-action instead of RPO. RPO continues to not be a good choice for the Patriots.

    Patriots defense is championship caliber Gonzalez has been awesome. If he keeps this up. DROY is very much a possibility for him. Just look @ what the Dolphins did to the Bronco’s today

    1. They have a year of horrific coaching on top of demoralization of their QB to overcome. I’m proud of them for working through that.

  25. Yankees officially eliminated from postseason contention and the Cowboys were God Awful today. Not an easy day being a fan of both those teams.

  28. [Long Range Forecast] Long range guidance is trending toward a pattern change of drier and milder weather into New England the first week of October.

    Finally some drying out. Watch this pattern will take over now until the Spring. lol

    1. Hah don’t laugh too loud. One of my theories for winter (only one puzzle piece) is if the influence from the H.T. volcano is one that helps induce blocking like we saw a lot during the warm season, then who’s to say it’s not stronger this winter, so strong that the El Nino – fueled subtropical jet is suppressed to the south and we’re dry here?

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