Wednesday November 15 2023 Forecast (7:31AM)

40 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

A cold start today, quite frosty in some areas with high pressure overhead. A light northerly air flow has driven some ocean effect clouds over Cape Cod but those will move out / dissipate early today as the high pressure area shifts to the south and our air flow across the region becomes light west to southwest. While this is happening, warmer air will be advecting in above us and create a variable amount of high cloudiness as the day goes on. These clouds will peak this evening before clearing out overnight as a warm front moves quietly through the region. What this front will do is boost Thursday’s high temperatures by about 10 degrees over today’s chillier readings. Another dry day is in store for us Thursday. Things start to change on Friday with high pressure further offshore and a low pressure trough approaching from the west. A southerly air flow will increase the moisture and resultant cloud cover in the region, and at the same time we’ll be watching a plume of moisture associated with a developing low pressure area to the south. This storm will pass by to the southeast of New England Friday night into Saturday while the trough to the west sends another low to our north, and its trailing cold front moves eastward across our region. This is a recipe for some wet weather with showers from the cold front, but also a swath of rain from the coastal / ocean low. The latter looks like it will have the greatest impact to the east of I-95 during the first 12 hours of Saturday before it starts to exit to the northeast and the cold front pulls through. This will shift the wind flow to northerly and drive drier, colder air into the region, and as these systems fully phase in eastern Canada we can expect dry weather but a gusty, chilly day on Sunday to finish the weekend.

TODAY: Early morning clouds exit Cape Cod, otherwise sun and high clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind N under 10 MPH except up to 10 MPH Cape Cod early, then shifting to W-SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of high clouds evening, then a clearing trend overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers evening. Cloudy overnight with rain likely, especially from the I-95 belt eastward. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy through midday with rain likely I-95 belt eastward and a good chance of showers elsewhere. Mostly cloudy with a few lingering rain showers possible in the afternoon. Highs 50-57 occurring in the morning, then cooling into the 40s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially eastern coastal areas.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

High pressure brings dry and seasonably chilly weather early next week. Watching for a progressive system to pass by during November 22 with a good chance of precipitation, mostly rain, but may start as snow/mix to the west/north favoring higher elevations if it comes in quickly enough. Thanksgiving Day looks dry and breezy, but not too chilly. Colder air arrives the day after that with a secondary cold front moving through that may produce a rain or snow shower with otherwise dry weather expected.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

Pattern looks dry for the balance of Thanksgiving Weekend before the precipitation chance goes up early the following week with a progressive trough arriving.

40 thoughts on “Wednesday November 15 2023 Forecast (7:31AM)”

  2. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023111412&fh=102&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023111500&fh=90&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Here’s yesterday’s 12z GFS and then overnight’s 00z GFS.

    So glad its got a consistent handle on Saturday.

    Maybe the EURO will save the day ……. yesterday’s 12Z and then overnight’s 00z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023111412&fh=102&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023111500&fh=90&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Well, not really.

    So the GFS went further offshore and less intense on its 00z run.

    The EURO came a bit closer and a lot stronger on its 00z run.

    I keep feeling bad for those who love to track snow events out to the medium range. You are in for a super frustrating experience.

  4. Thanks, TK!

    26 when I left my house.

    Not sure why there was water on the roads (maybe road construction), but a couple of slick spots on the way in.

    1. Too bad it wasn’t headed to the benchmark with an ARCTIC
      air mass in place here. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Yeah, I know, you would HATE THAT. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Yes, too early. 🙂

        During December or February school vacation, I’m game.

        Chasing June 11th, no snow days 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

          1. HAHAHAHAHA

            And now that I have your attention, I read back a bit in the blog. I was reminded of Longshot quizzes. I MISS THOSE 😉

            1. Thinking of bringing those back. I stopped when we were going through serious family health issues. Time to give this some thought again.

  12. Plenty of time for that to change. You never want to see a rainorama or a snoworama on the busiest travel day of the year. I love snow but never want it where families can’t get together for the holiday.

  13. Did I read another big volcano erupt in Russia? Will this have any impact on the atmosphere in any significant way?

  15. Since reading above posts, I’ve been trying to see if volcanologists have determined a VEI on that Volcano in Russia, but I haven’t been able to find one.

  19. I’m late. But for jeopardy watchers, there is a special celebrity version on ABC at 8;00. Rachel Dratch is one of the celebrities. She was a student in a Belmont friends Lexington high Math class.

        1. I miss being down in South Florida. We were down there last year when our oldest was at FAU in Naples.

          Especially now thru Feb, it’s like being on a different planet. Palm trees, everything’s still green and well, warmth 🙂

          But my goodness, it floods easy on the roads in heavy rain.

          2. I remember your oldest being there. I suspect it might be kind of like when we went to Charleston each year to visit Mac’s parents.

Comments are closed.