Sunday December 10 2023 Forecast (8:32AM)

149 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 10-14)

We haven’t had many solid rain events since September, and we’ve had very few wind events this year. Later today to early Monday we get both! This event is being driven by a strong trough of low pressure swinging through the eastern US, and plentiful moisture flowing northward along a frontal boundary that will be moving fairly slowly across our region. A couple waves of low pressure will be moving up along this front, keeping its movement slow, and increasing the amount of rainfall we can see from the system. We have a slow beginning to the system, with just a cloudy sky and areas of fog for this morning before rainfall, initially in the form of quick-moving showers, moves in from west to east (elements moving south to north). Tonight it’s a much more widespread band of rain with embedded downpours and even possible thunder. Finally, a stronger low center get going and as it rapidly intensifies it will pull the front through and offshore, putting an end to the rain and strongest wind during Monday morning. Impacts from this system include potential damaging wind gusts, and some resultant power outages, with highest chance of that east of I-95, some coastal flooding at high tide time Monday morning (primary threat window 4 a.m. to 8 a.m.), and areas of flooding from heavy rainfall on roads, poor drainage areas, and small streams, with the highest chance west of I-95 where where rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be common (lesser rain expected to the east of there). By midday Monday, the rain is exiting (or already gone), and we’ll see some clearing, drying, and a temperature fall. The good news is most surfaces will dry adequately before temperatures drop below freezing Monday night. However, any remaining standing water will freeze, so keep this in mind if it’s a factor in your walking or driving travel Monday night / early Tuesday. Any snow from this system? That will be mainly in the mountains to our west and northwest, but a few snow showers can make their way into the higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH as the colder air arrives during Monday afternoon and evening. After this event, the weather pattern is quiet through midweek with seasonably chilly and dry weather. A weak cold front will swing through the region Wednesday with little fanfare.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain showers possible in the afternoon, especially I-95 belt westward. Highs 56-63. Wind S 5-15 MPH morning, 15-25 MPH afternoon, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain and embedded thunderstorms. Lows 50-57. Wind S 15-30 MPH, higher gusts – above 40 MPH inland, above 50 MPH coastal areas.

MONDAY: Cloudy into mid morning with rain exiting from west to east. Sun/cloud mix late morning on with a passing afternoon snow shower possible favoring higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 52-59 early, then cooling into and through 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind chill below 20. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy then clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 15-19)

Latest indications are that any additional storminess mid to late period stays mostly to the south, but may be a close call. Overall pattern is dry with no temperature extremes.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 20-24)

Other than 1 or 2 fairly minor systems the overall pattern looks fairly quiet with no major temperature extremes.

149 thoughts on “Sunday December 10 2023 Forecast (8:32AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    ocean temp 48.6

    VT looks to do well with this system, so there is a pkus

    Wind advisory for Boston, high wind warning SE of the city..

    1. Now that one I remember very well. the 1st of 3 biggies that winter. next was the Kennedy inauguration day storm and finally the ground hog day storm. Where I was living in Millis all 3 delivered about 14 inches or so.

      That was a decent Winter

  4. Thanks, TK. Looks like Natick is right in the middle with heftier winds to the east and heavier rain to the west. Does this seem accurate? Then it looks like a relatively quiet pattern to Christmas.

  5. JpDave I think we would have gotten a HOLY CRAP BATMAN with that winter storm back on this day in 1960.

  17. Thank you, TK.

    I may be a minority opinion but however much I love watching Ohtani play (I consider him the greatest athlete in sports today) I think his signing will be ballast the Dodgers will regret.

    That’s WAY too much of an investment in one player. The risks involved are pretty big, too (for one thing you’re counting on the Tommy John surgery to be a success. Not a foregone conclusion. If it doesn’t work, you’ve got one very expensive DH on your hands.

    1. well I agree in a way. I don’t think ANY player is worth that much money. It’s INSANE!!!

      Good luck to the Dodgers!

  18. I know JPD mentioned the NOAA info showing reduced winds. Is there any reliable consensus forecast showing the same thing?

    1. I think it’s just a case of getting real close to the event and I think, with 99% of systems, as one gets to right before it, the models finally give the most realistic outcomes and thus, that requires them to taper down some of the original projections.

      I think not a lot has changed here. Where does this storm track ? Southeast of that track, is the wind potential. Along and somewhat northwest of the track is the excessive rain threat.

  20. I still don’t feel like the models have the exact low track.

    There is some differences if it tracks over Worcester than if it tracks just southeast of Boston (12z GFS) IE: where the wind threat can get to, where the heaviest rain falls.

    I’m a bit frustrated we still don’t have that yet.

    1. Late yesterday and last night I thought that the main low
      would actually track SE of Boston. Now I am not so sure.

      NAM over Boston

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023121012&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      GFS over Boston

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023121012&fh=24&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      RDPS the same

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023121012&fh=24&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      HRRR close to the same, but perhaps “just” a tad more S&E.

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023121012&fh=27&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      Euro close to the same

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023121000&fh=36&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

      CONSENSUS is a track OVER boston, SPARING the city
      the highest winds, but placing very strong winds SE
      of the city.

      WATCH OUT SOUTH SHORE!

      2. Wow. What a great post. And oh boy for south shore.

        I’m I correct that ocean flooding won’t be a huge threat? I hope

        1. I don’t think so on East facing coast line, however, the South coast, may be a different issue.

          I could see an issue at Fall River, New Bedford, Buzzards Bay and The Vineyard and Nantucket. We shall see how
          it plays out.

      1. Looked gruesome to me.

        I totally agree with you. Fortunately, for the most part. we don’t have to worry about that around here. Sure we get a few EF-0’s and 1’s, but they’re nothing. We rarely see any with a higher rating. Yes, we very occasionally see them, but NOTHING compared to the Mid-West and even the South.

  24. Just read Eric Fisher

    WPC just created a moderate contour for excessive rain.

    I think folks are going to be surprised by the rain. Definite some area will sit under training torrents for a while.

        1. Ready Tom . I’m at work & my wife is scrambling to get things outside put away . I’ve been working non stop at the Hospital so I’m very behind with the outside

  29. And then there’s a sizable heavy rain area down around the Delmarva

    And the actually disturbance that becomes the sfc low is southwest of that.

    1. Yes, we are in for it. Very likely to see some flooding in some areas. I don’t think it is going to be good.

  31. This doesn’t look particularly impressive just yet, but it does show rain from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico!

    https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOm51bGwsImNlbnRlciI6Wy04Ni4zNzksMzIuOTUzXSwibG9jYXRpb24iOm51bGwsInpvb20iOjUuMTJ9LCJhbmltYXRpbmciOmZhbHNlLCJiYXNlIjoic3RhbmRhcmQiLCJhcnRjYyI6ZmFsc2UsImNvdW50eSI6ZmFsc2UsImN3YSI6ZmFsc2UsInJmYyI6ZmFsc2UsInN0YXRlIjpmYWxzZSwibWVudSI6dHJ1ZSwic2hvcnRGdXNlZE9ubHkiOmZhbHNlLCJvcGFjaXR5Ijp7ImFsZXJ0cyI6MC44LCJsb2NhbCI6MC42LCJsb2NhbFN0YXRpb25zIjowLjgsIm5hdGlvbmFsIjowLjZ9fQ%3D%3D

        2. We always talk about the Pacific Atmospheric River.
          Well, we are looking at a Gulf of Mexico Atmospheric River!!

  33. Raining at Killington and all the VT. ski areas.
    Hope they don’t loose too much snow prior to the changeover, which won’t come until somewhere in neighborhood of 1AM tomorrow give or take. That’s a long period of mild to warm
    RAIN!! NOT good.

  34. Not surprising that 1960-61 winter was quite active.

    Seasonal total Boston (Logan) = 61.5”

    Thanks Jimmy!

  35. How much rain would you forecast for Natick? I realize it’s a tough call. Putting things in order and clearing path for sump pump. Woke up today thinking more about wind and now rain has taken the lead.

    Thanks

    1. 2 inches would be my starting point.

      Do you get into that 3-5 inch rain contour would be the question and I don’t know is the answer. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Thanks Tom. Hope we come in on low end around 2-3. Just saw AJ Burnett with reduced wind numbers and peak gusts at about 40 in Framingham. I can live with those numbers.

  36. Figuring rain start time for me can’t be more than an hour away. Seeing darker clouds moving in. Breeze at this point under 5 MPH.

    Live in a top floor condo so I had to take my balcony plants off their stands. Hoping for the best.

  37. Daughter bought me my first smartphone 10 days ago. I’m having LOTS of trouble figuring it out: Everything from screen brightness and volume adjustment to accepting calls to downloading and using apps like whatsapp to message notifications to even `simple’ things like turning the phone on and off.

    Eventually I’ll figure it out, but I feel like a total moron. Very frustrated with myself. The other day I was on the T (Red Line) while someone was calling my cellphone and I tried answering by hitting the green button. Nothing happened (turns out you have to program the phone to enable this function) and a person on the T got annoyed as my phone was ringing incessantly. I couldn’t silence the phone or anything. I apologized by saying “I’m sorry, I’m smartphone dumb.”

    1. Brightness should be in settings & volume should be button on side of phone but also check settings

      1. When the phone rings does it show green phone on front screen ?? If so just hit to answer . I have an IPhone

    2. I’m a techie type person and I still have trouble occasionally.
      I can’t tell you how many times I have picked up the phone and lost the page I was on or the photo I was viewing. Very sensitive little buggers!!!!!!!

      Don’t feel badly. You’ll be fine. They are a DIFFERENT animal!!!

  39. The winds while ot strong are definitely picking up on the north shore and first drops of rain are hitting my deck.

  40. Rain has commenced here in JP. It has been raining for about 15 minutes or so and is coming down decently.

  45. 0.32 so far in SE sutton

    Granddaughter and group got in their trail ride. No wind or rain. But the horses clearly were warning that something was going on in the atmosphere. They may not be able to talk but when you take the time to understand them, they clearly warn.

    The normally very calm pony (most would think a horse as ponies can be 14.2 hands) was crazed.

    At one point the trainer said the pony’s four feet were of the ground and granddaughter was lifted a couple of feet out of the saddle. Granddaughter chose to jump off.

    Every horse was the same.

    1. Great that all is OK. Horses are smarter than we think. 🙂

      I love horses. Never had one and have only ridden a few times.
      My cousin had a horse. Majestic beautiful animals!!!

      1. They truly are smarter. In many cases they are more intuitive than we are. And you are so right that they were majestic

        Granddaughters trainer said most would return from a ride like that and say that wss it for riding. She got back to thr barm and announced it was the most fun she’d had

          1. I think it’s a decent storm but we have had bigger , let’s see how it all unfolds . Still awoke to go till it gets cranking.

            2. There may be some spots that get over 4 inches of rain. Definitely nothing to sneeze at. And some wind gusts on the Cape may top 60. Sure we’ve seen worse, but this is definitely a solid event for some: rain and/or wind. Many places won’t claim both though since the heaviest rain is west and the strongest wind is east. 🙂

    2. I wondered the same. Thanks for asking. And I forget easily but think you may be a new poster. If so… very happy to meet you. If not… very happy to see you.

  53. Philip great to see you on! Wishing you the best of course and we’re always here for you!

    I just drove back from Saugus in pretty solid rain. Route 1 is always “fun” in that kind of weather after sunset. 😉

    1. Lovely comment TK. I’d like to echo you. We are indeed always here, Philip. . We are a whw family after all.

  54. I can’t just stick the kestrel out with the heavy rain. I’m going to have to stand outside with it. I suspect my neighbors already think I’m certifiable. We already know here I am.

  55. Was out and about shopping today in West Hartford and it was very slow going with some very heavy rain and a lot of ponding on the roads.

    We are in a bit of a lull now but have received 1.32″ already and a lot more approaching from the SW.

  59. TK – when you say heaviest rain is west, do you mean outside 495? Trying to get a feel for the Natick area. Most of what falls here still scheduled to come between 5-7AM?

    Thanks.

    1. I-95 belt westward.
      And closer to the 2 than the 4 I think for most.

      The latest radar / short range guidance trends are a little less impressive, but still significant nonetheless.

        1. Not much rain there still but you’re getting wind now. Gust up to 19 according to Nws and 27 per wunder. Hope your airblows have been grounded for the duration

  60. Torrential rain pelting the front of the house now along with increasing wind here in Coventry CT. Up to 1.6″ of rain on the event so far and a lot more to go…

  65. Raining at a half inch per hour here as well. Up to 2.61″.

    Down to 47.5F here as the cooler air starts to funnel in.

    1. Wow. Hope that dung headed here. Temp still 61. I’m not going out but that 23.6 I recorded early has to pale in comparison to now. House shook a few times. Over 1000 out in sutton. We still have power.

      I’m off to sleep. Sleep well, Mark!!

  66. Very heavy rain and it’s dark !

    Tons of deep puddles on road sides.

    Terrible visibility, it’s dark ….. tough ride in.

    1. Took about 10 extra minutes from Taunton to Middleboro with deep puddles and overworked drains.
      1.71″ in the gauge when I left. I would suspect that there’s more than 2.00″ now. 47 degrees down from 63 overnight.

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