Monday April 1 2024 Forecast (7:51AM)

131 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 1-5)

Welcome to April! I’m not going to play any jokes on you because Mother Nature will attempt that this week, and for most people it won’t be funny. We actually start out with a day that’s not too bad despite the lack of sun. The shield of clouds covering our sky is from a wave of low pressure passing to our south. While the cloud deck is thick enough to produce some precipitation, most of it will be evaporating before reaching the ground and only a few raindrops may find their way to the surface, but we’ll otherwise be in for a dry day despite the lack of sunshine. We’ll also lack the wind that was active most of the weekend. A weak trough of low pressure will swing across the region today and can produce a few spotty rain showers mainly from southern NH to northeastern MA. We’re entering a lengthy unsettled stretch of weather that spans the entire work week, but peaks in a midweek storm. Tomorrow, an arm of moisture ahead of this system tries to move in under an overcast sky, but again will battle dry air, so I feel that the precipitation shield will again be mostly aloft for the day, with some rain finally making it into eastern CT, RI, and parts of southeastern and south central MA later in the day, with any remains of that precipitation area will cause spotty light rain in the rest of the region at night, but will be fading. It will be early Wednesday when a more substantial precipitation shield arrives. As this storm impacts us during midweek (Wednesday/Thursday), there will be a high pressure area in eastern Canada supplying colder air. But like much of the winter, we find ourselves in a situation where temperatures are marginal between rain and snow, and it will be over inland, higher elevations, and with the aid of intensity, that snow is most likely to fall, with mixing occurring further east, but probably just a mainly rain event closer to the coast and most especially the further south you go. But we’ll have to keep a close eye on this, because a degree or two difference in the lower atmosphere makes a great difference in rain vs. snow for many areas. I do think in whatever form it’s falling the precipitation peaks in intensity Wednesday night. A primary low near the Great Lakes will give way to a secondary in our region, with the position of this low also being instrumental in determining rain vs. snow. During Thursday, the general idea with this system is it will lift far enough north to allow the precipitation to become less widespread and overall somewhat lighter, but a messy variety is still likely to be involved. And the very slow process of seeing this system exit will result in Friday being another unsettled day with clouds dominating and additional showers of precipitation, which may be in one or more forms. This forecast will obviously need to be tweaked in shorter terms as we go through the week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A touch of very light rain possible at times, mainly near the South Coast. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, with light coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. An evening rain shower possible southern NH and northeastern MA. Lows 35-42. Wind shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Late-day rain possible eastern CT, RI, and adjacent areas of southern MA. Highs 42-49, coolest in eastern coastal locations. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Spotty light rain, may mix with wet snow some interior higher elevations. Lows 35-42. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix/snow likely. Highs 38-45 but may fall slowly during the day. Wind NE-E 10-20 MPH, gusty.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, heavy at times, may mix with or turn to sleet/snow at times favoring interior higher elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Steady precipitation tapers to rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45, may spike to 45-52 South Coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT / FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with additional rain/snow showers. Temperatures generally steady 38-45. Wind variable becoming N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 6-10)

Slow improvement during the April 6-7 weekend, starting unsettled, ending dry as low pressure slowly pulls away. High pressure builds in with fair weather April 8-10. Overall favorable sky conditions expected for solar eclipse viewing on April 8 (partial but greater than 90% coverage for WHW forecast areas while path of totality crosses far northern New England). Temperatures below normal early period, trending milder thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 11-15)

Unsettled weather returns early to mid period with a low pressure trough. High pressure builds in late period with fair weather again. Temperatures near to above normal.

131 thoughts on “Monday April 1 2024 Forecast (7:51AM)”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Not feeling it for this upcoming event Running out of time for things to change. 🙂

    1. Thanks Dave, sweet video. He makes that powder skiing look so effortless but it is not easy. I would be falling all over the place. You really need to lean back on your skis when skiing through that stuff, especially when it is heavier snow like what usually falls in CA.

      1. For sure. I skiied Mt. Wachsetts during the 2nd of
        the BIG storms in Fen of 69. I had a lot of trouble
        as the trails were all powder and NOT groomed at all.
        I know exactly what you mean. 🙂

  12. As TK has alluded to, there is an initial impulse Tuesday to be watched.

    It appears, at this time, it mostly is held at by southwest of us.

    I hope so, because that will further increase total QPF with the whole event.

  13. Every morning I post thank you. I of course mean thank you. But today…..right now……i think it’s important for me to say a bit more than thank you.

    We are blessed to be part of whw. But being thankful for me, and I think for most all posting or just reading, is for the tremendous amount of time you dedicate daily to the best weather forum there is.

    Although it’s hardly enough, but if I may shout . THANK YOU VERY MUCH!

  16. Not weather related so I asked TK if it is ok to post here. My 12 year old granddaughter discovered Fahlo a while ago. It is great for kids and adults alike. I gifted each grand a bracelet/animal for Easter. I track a polar bear and lion but want to add a sea turtle and an elephant. The purchase goes to helping these guys. Thought I’d mention in case anyone is interested

    https://myfahlo.com/

  17. 12 RDPS is the solution I worry most about.

    2.5-3 inches of QPF, and a chance at coastal flooding.

      1. I was wondering if the Canadian model would cave this morning. NOT yet, anyway
        Pretty frightening that one model sees the conditions so differently!!!

        I highly doubt it will be correct, but one never knows.

  18. Thanks TK.

    California got slammed – yet again – by a major Pacific storm this weekend. Unfortunately, damages were a little heavier with this one. Major collapse of the Pacific Coast Highway has isolated the Big Sur region. A number of other smaller scale incidents were also reported across Southern California.

    https://abc7news.com/public-asked-to-avoid-big-sur-area-after-coastal-parts-of-road-fall-off-causing-hazardous-conditions-officials/14600037/

    I caught my first glimpse of the San Gabriel’s this morning since the storm on my way to work – didn’t have full light yet but they were already stunning with the fresh snowpack, it was a cold storm with snow levels down to at least 5000 feet. Will see if I can get some shots of them later today.

    Incredibly, an even colder storm will hit the region later this week and should bring the snow level down even further, as low as 2000-3000 feet, which could bring the most impressive visuals yet…

    1. Thanks Wx Watcher. I saw that visual of the collapse. So sad.
      Also, was watching the snowfall at Mountain High in the San Gabriels. They got a good dumping.
      They were going to close after yesterday, but I think they
      are staying open. yup, just viewed some web cams. They are open and it is very foggy (in the clouds)

      Always love to see those spectacular shots of he snow covered mountains, especially with PALM trees in the foreground!
      Most impressive!!!

      THANK YOU

    2. Thank you, WxW. I also saw some of the damage. Your season has been beyond belief weather wise. Heartbreaking

  19. The ICOM looks like its capturing the low SE of us, so as to slow the dry slot’s intusion.

    It has 2.8 inches in Worcester already for QPF with more to come.

    And the 12z GFS is throwing in some early precip very late Tuesday, which will only add to the whole event’s QPF.

    Lots still unknown ……..

    2. Yep. definite shift back SE on the GFS. No surprise as it always looked way too far NW with the location of the primary low and was maintaining its strength for too long.

  25. So now where does the Euro go with this thing?
    I must say it is getting a little more interesting
    AS TK has been saying, wait until the event happens
    before making conclusions.

    New England Weather, something is always up. 🙂

  26. Not for nothing, but the Canadian has this thing almost totally
    a SNOW event for Boston. Perhaps a bit of rain at the start, but it goes right to snow and stays that way, albeit very low ratios.
    IF this were to happen, it would be brutal!!

      1. btw, the event is getting closer. It’s not like we’re 10 days away. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  32. For me, my takeaway on what the 12z stuff has shown so far is more QPF and more coastal flooding.

    I am rooting, at the expense of snow, for a further north capture of the low.

    Its less QPF and less onshore flow for coastal flooding.

    If the other outcome verifies, snow lovers will be happy, but coastal residents and those dealing with water issues will not.

  33. On the better for snow runs, I wonder what the snow depth map changes are showing ? 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Wow !

        I wasn’t expecting that much. Thanks JpDDave !

        This is probably the extreme scenario and even with this, I’d divide by at least 2.

    1. in discussion, its a threat for hail that measures 2-3 inches or greater in diameter.

      I just took out an MCAS ruler, yikes, that is monstrous sized hail.

  40. I think the key now is tonight’s 00z and tomorrow’s 12z runs.

    I feel, as though, taken all together, the handling of the energy today brought the low track/positioning a little further south than yesterday.

    Taking a little longer to dry slot today.

    So, one day closer tomorrow, I want to see if the evolution stabilizes or heads a little further south again.

    Further south more and the QPF goes up, the coastal impact goes up and the chance of some wet snow gets further south.

  41. Not sure if this has been shared here yet, but Matt Noyes and wife Danielle (Niles), are launching a weather app together. Can’t wait to see the final product!

    https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/03/28/whats-next-for-meteorologist-matt-noyes-after-leaving-nbc10-a-new-beginning/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_content=fb-bostonherald&fbclid=IwAR1SVB2kKWvDIIhlSUJW8rg33bzf5PoFY4FHwF-_wcfsh1ZF1XGoyZPo2jg_aem_Abw05AEAXnPuwDVYbyYY4U06kvzwVamY-G_GMVQvY71Maj-Eo2V9Sm7rITavDeHD4QU#luhbqu1ox567a6re5qm

    1. It was shared but last night so many may have missed it. Thanks Ace for sharing again. I’d be surprised if this were not something that might actually work.

    2. I am pleased about this because I feel that weather apps are too “random” (aka, they use data that is not consistent) and quite useless. There are few exceptions, but the casual user is not always going to know right away what’s good. And why should they? The product should be able to deliver the most reliable info possible.

      1. It’s a great example of forward thinking and adjusting with the times to satisfy an unmet need (much like the existence of this blog has done for all of us).

    2. From TK

      WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, heavy at times, may mix with or turn to sleet/snow at times favoring interior higher elevations. Lows 33-40. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts.

        1. There is no “and”. She was just showing what I said above. That he, myself, and pretty much everyone else have the same forecast for that area. 🙂

          That’s good! It has a better chance to verify when all the professionals are in agreement. 🙂

        2. You often say you haven’t “read” the blog yet so I was just sharing TK’s forecast which is similar to Mike. You’re welcome.

  43. Some may recall about 10 days or so ago I talked about the CFS model having a sprawling trough of low pressure and cloud cover along the entire eclipse path.

    Well, it looks like that forecast is going to be about the opposite of what will really happen.

    CFS had been doing pretty well too… Hey, not complaining if it’s wrong!

    1. High temp about 50 where I will be in VT. Temp will drop a couple degrees during totality.

    1. The difference between the NAM and the GDPS on this event right now is comical. 😉

      1. yeah, I’ve been laughing my head off for 2 days!!! 🙂 🙂
        I have resigned myself to RAIN.

        2. I think the models are just coalescing on a solution somewhere in the middle. I think from the start we knew the best chances for a change to accumulating snow were N&W of Boston, Worcester County, and VT/NH/ME. The question is how much snow in those areas and how far south does the changeover occur…..still up in the air.

  47. Winter Storm Watches up for most of VT, NH, and ME as well as the Berkshires. Check out the wording in this statement. Impressive for April…..

    …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
    THURSDAY NIGHT…

    * WHAT…Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations greater than
    18 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph.

    * WHERE…Portions of central and northern New Hampshire.

    * WHEN…From Wednesday morning through late Thursday night.

    * IMPACTS…Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and
    blowing snow. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs
    may down power lines and could cause scattered to numerous power
    outages. Significant snowfall and periods of heavy snowfall rates
    will combine with low visibility to create very dangerous driving
    conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday
    evening and Thursday morning commutes. Gusty winds could bring
    down tree branches.

    1. Similar watch with the same snow totals and near identical wording up for all of central and southern Maine including Augusta, Auburn, Lewiston and Portland.

  48. NWS Norton :re rainfall….

    Rain and River Flooding Concerns:

    As we are inching closer to the event we are able to tap into the
    high-res models and see how things may pan out. By Wednesday morning
    there looks to be widespread rain chances areas south of the Mass
    Pike and east of I-495. Rainfall amounts, ensembles continue to show
    modest totals, with greater than 90 percent of an inch. There is
    some variability when we get to the 2 inch prob, ENS 30 to 50 percent
    across much of the area with “hot spots” of 70 to 90 percent across
    the lower CT River Valley and Rhode Island. Similar the GEFS has
    nearly 100 percent probs of an inch, 40 to 70 percent of 2 inches,
    and a hot spot of less than 20 percent for up to 4 inches in
    northern Merrimack Valley. As for rivers, the Pawtuxet River at
    Cranston has a 30 percent chance of moderate flood, while the Charles
    at Dover, Wood River at Hope Valley, Pawcatuck River at Westerly &
    Wood River Junction – all have a 70 percent chance of reaching minor
    flood stage.

    1. And their take on Snowfall:

      As for what we should expect for ptypes, there remains a good deal
      of uncertainty because of the marginal thermal profiles. The 12z run
      of the deterministic models are indicating a warm nose, area of
      above freezing temperatures aloft, in the vicinity of the 800mb to
      700mb. This could lead to less in the way of snow and more in the
      way of sleet or perhaps pockets of freezing rain. That said, our
      greatest confidence in accumulation of snow remain across the
      northern Worcester Hills and northern Berkshires. Per collaboration
      with WPC and neighboring WFOs have opt to hoist a Winter Storm Watch
      for our extreme far western CWA, western Franklin and Hampshire
      counties starting Wednesday morning through Thursday. Here are the
      best chances of 7+ inches of snow. As for northern Worcester County
      there are modest probs of advisory level snow, greater than 3 inches
      between 50 and 70 percent, based off the latest NBM ensembles. As for
      the major cities, Boston, Providence, Hartford and Springfield,
      looks to be an all rain event, with a brief switch over at the end.
      Did want to mention, City of Worcester, there is a 25 percent chance
      of up to an inch.

  49. So 50-70% chance that a walk of shame will be occurring in the Town of Holden on Thursday per NWS.

    It’s gonna be a nail biter….

    2. We must ensure that the important decision of the Holden walk/no-walk does not come down to a debate over controversial technicalities involving the method of snowfall measurement. How, exactly, will the number be determined? For instance, given the current warm temperatures, different surfaces could vary greatly in snow-cover. If the snow is very “gloppy,” the frequency of measurement and surface clearing will be a significant factor.

      It would be best to agree on these details in advance in order to forestall a protracted and potentially ugly “situation.”

      🙂

        1. Oh nooooo. I like how you think. I’ll let you run with it. Please

          And…..

          It occurred to me I no longer drive in snow or on highways. And I don’t think a virtual judge will work

          1. Isn’t Retrac a trained spotter?

            I trust his measurements. I don’t think he would screw with us. 🙂

    1. Nearly a foot in Metro West, 20″ in Holden, 40″ in the Monadnocks, and 50″ on Mt Washington. LOL.

  54. There’s a nose of warm air at 750 MB that has been pretty consistent across the models. It’s why Vicki won’t even need to come measure here.

    1. What if Mother Nature blows it’s nose and it cools off?
      It will get colder during the storm and you’ll go over to SNOW
      sooner than the rest of us. 🙂 Good luck!

  55. With shear and utter humiliation on the line, I am not sure Retrac can be trusted in this situation. A measurement on warm south facing pavement or underneath a dryer vent exhaust is not acceptable. We will cross check his reported measurement with adjacent Towns and if something seems fishy, I will drive up there with my ruler, I mean – yard stick, and measure myself.

    1. funny thing is I put my plow away like whenever that was but left my snow board out. My integrity will hold! Even though it won’t need testing 😉

    1. His leadin on FB

      You didn’t think I could stay away with a storm coming did you?! You can mark it down: it took only five days for me to chime in on a storm. Though Danielle & I are hard at work on something brand new, this is an old classic true weather die-hards have come to recognize: my technical video discussion, today focused on the midweek storm. If you love the science behind meteorology, sit back and enjoy 14 minutes of pure geekery. Oh, and you’ll see a few hints at what’s coming, too!

    1. Not a good thing at all with a possible tornado outbreak for the MidSouth and surrounding area.

Comments are closed.