Tuesday June 11 2024 Forecast (7:41AM)

42 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 11-15)

A broad area of upper level low pressure continues to impact the weather today with air on the cooler side of normal and a few pop up showers possible. This exits tonight and Wednesday and high pressure begins to build in, but there can be just enough atmospheric instability to pop a shower or two Wednesday afternoon especially along a sea breeze boundary that will be fairly pronounced, otherwise most areas are dry for the day. Ahead of the summer solstice, a couple very warm to hot days are coming up as high pressure builds aloft along the East Coast and a surface high slides offshore. The humidity will come up as well but slowly, not really being noticed until Friday. That’s also the day that a cold front will be moving into the region from the northwest. I still have to fine-tune the timing of this front. That will help determine how hot the day is and how strong the showers and thunderstorms that accompany it will become. For now, a broad 12 hour window of noon to midnight is in place for the shower and storm potential, first to the west, and moving eastward with time. In reality, any one location will probably only be under the gun for these for a few hours in total. This front moves offshore later Friday night and we’ll have a cooler, breezy, dry day for Saturday to start the weekend.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a pop-up shower. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 54-61. Wind SE to variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind variable, becoming mostly SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening, then clearing. Lows 56-63. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear except partly to mostly cloudy South Coast. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and/or evening showers/thunderstorms likely. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Evening showers/thunderstorms likely. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 16-20)

Fair weather continues through the remainder of the weekend June 16. Unsettled weather is possible at some point during June 17 and/or 18 as a warm front moves through, then some hotter weather is possible by the middle of next week. The summer solstice occurs on June 20.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 21-25)

Large scale pattern indicates a high pressure ridge retrograding from the Midwest to the Plains and a northwesterly air flow here. This is a mostly dry pattern, variable temperatures, but early in the period coming out of a hotter spell we may be vulnerable to heavier showers and thunderstorms.

42 thoughts on “Tuesday June 11 2024 Forecast (7:41AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK,

    Made 76 yesterday with an overnight low this morning of 57.

    Ocean temperature: 61 (Boston buoy)
    I think these cool nights have temporarily put a stop
    to the rise in the ocean temperature and in fact has dropped it a bit. Although, yesterday afternoon it was back up to 63 with sunshine. 🙂

    Last night Pete said that Friday could “possibly” be a severe weather day. TK, do you agree? or is it still too early to tell?

    Many thanks

  7. Thanks for the links TOM.

    Waiting for the 9Z SREF run.
    the 3Z had CAPEs of only around 500 joules with lifted index
    of -3 to -5.

    Close, but NOT worrisome at this point. We shall see what the new data shows.

  8. Yesterday, Eric mentioned on air that this summer will be completely different from last. He expects hotter and drier this time around.

    A mixed blessing for sure.

  9. 9Z SREF is in.

    Cape 1,000 + Joules in Central and Western section, 500 joules Eastern

    LI -4 Central and West, -3 or -2 Eastern.

    Nothing indicated on the Significant Tornado ingredients.

    So far, not too worried about severe on Friday, ESPECIALLY
    in Eastern Sections, BUT worth watching as things could change.

  12. NAM is in.
    IF there is a severe threat on Friday, it would appear to be in
    Western Sections only. We shall see as new data keeps coming in as we approach Friday. have to watch it.

    1. This summer, as a whole, I could see a big 500 mb ridge in the Great Lakes/Plains where we get thunderstorms being under the ring of fire. Typically, they hit NY State then slide into the mid Atlantic but occasionally, they clip or hit us.

  14. Looking at the current guidance for the thunderstorm potential I think the SPC will put out a marginal risk for western areas of SNE for Friday.

    1. Sounds about right. “Might” even be slight risk.
      But at this point, does not appear it would apply to Eastern Sections. We shall see.

  16. As with snow threats first seen in the very long range, the same thing is happening with heat possibilities.

    Both usually show in the absolute extremes, blizzard of the decade, strings of near 100F days.

    I do believe above average temps, multiple rounds of them, lie just ahead.

    But, as the warm surges move forward on the models, the projections of near 100F ease back to 80s and low 90s, much like the projections of 30-40 inches region wide usually become in the medium or short range a 6-10 or 8-12 in.

  18. That is not good timing for any outdoor graduations Fri evening.
    Still a few days out so that could change.

  19. Thanks, TK!

    Final exams today and this week.

    I could be wrong, JimmyJames, but I am going to guess that most schools, if not all schools, have had their graduation ceremonies already. Our last day of school is Friday. I think Tom’s is Thursday.

    1. Oh yeah, 45 hrs, 42 mins.

      🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  22. 12z ECMWF temperatures for the CT River Valley next week. Is that too hot? My favorite is the 86 at 2am…My not so valued opinion, the ECMWF has been pretty good 1-6 day day range, GFS which has been stupid silly 1-6 day range, is actually better 7-15 day range SNE, other than over amping every precip event.

    WED 18Z 19-JUN 97.4
    THU 00Z 20-JUN 98.3
    THU 06Z 20-JUN 86.5
    THU 12Z 20-JUN 80.8
    THU 18Z 20-JUN 98.0
    FRI 00Z 21-JUN 96.2
    FRI 06Z 21-JUN 85.1

    1. Hello stranger. It’s great to hear from you.

      So, I guess we’ll wait and see what we actually get.

      They should write a book, FUN WITH MODELS and I don’t mean
      fashion models.

  27. The NHC late yesterday identified an area just west of Tampa for a very small chance at future development.

    It probably won’t, but oh my, did that little sheared swirl deliver !

    Sarasota, FL had nearly 4″ of rain in 2 hrs, St Pete had another less intense hit about 10pm last night from a new tstorm complex that popped just east of that swirl and there are good rains this morning as this weak entity traverses Florida.

    Waiting on visible to see if this “swirl” is still there.

    2. Guidance did a good job picking that up.

      Don’t think it’ll develop into something that’s actual, but we’ll see if NHC starts to write its fiction early. I mean, they have a forecast to verify regardless of how many actual storms form! 😉

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