Slow Thaw

126 Comments

7:14AM

The cold snap will gradually loosen its grip on the northeastern US during the next couple days, with moderating temperatures the result in southern New England. Fair weather will dominate as high pressure moves just south of the region through Thursday. Some moisture from the south may try to sneak up on Friday but will probably result in more clouds but no precipitation. As we shift to a new pattern for a while by the weekend, expect milder weather, but some wet weather for at least a portion of the weekend and possibly unsettled into early next week as well.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 20. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 10. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind WSW 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 20. High 40.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. PM rain. Low 30. High 50.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 40. High 50.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 40. High 50.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 45.

126 thoughts on “Slow Thaw”

  1. Thanks, TK.

    Frankly, I am looking forward to some milder temperatures. Not anxious for spring just yet – but give me a month or 2 and I will be craving spring!

  2. Thanks TK. Another cold morning, but gets milder from here now each day. I will enjoy this short break from the cold 🙂

  5. I am so sick of waking up and not wanting to get out of bed, I had a friend that’s been in Florida since the end of Dec for vac, and he just extended his vacation for another week, he saw the temps and said ill come back this weekend, lol!! Must be nice to be able to do that

    2. Temps in much of the south have been colder or as cold as here. That said, Charlie, try this — every morning you can get out of bed, be thankful. Just sayin’

  6. Another cold morning!! Warm up is coming and I am glad. Get to play outside with the kids rather than being stuck indoors.

    1. The kids got bikes for Xmas, and haven’t been able to ride anything outside, they have been sad 🙁 I was wondering if they had inside bike parks?

      1. Darn good thing you didn’t get them skis or skates. Other than the past few days, all of the kids in our neighborhood have been outside playing.

        2. Vicki is there just no inside places? I’m just asking a simple question, my kids don’t want to play in 0 degree weather, besides its dangerous, any ideas would be great, stop trying to stick up for New England Vicki , I’m not putting New England down, your awfully defensive 🙂 just simply asking 🙂 thanks

  7. I also was watching how the Polar Vortex was weakening and heading back to the North Pole, since 6 weeks ago, I’ve gotten so many, and I mean alot of people calling,texting, emailing facebooking that this is the coldest winter they ever felt, I’m not saying it is,,BUT this is the word on the street, I even had a message from a friend stating the moving truck is out front on its way south, get your stuff and throw it in, it was funny lol I told him to just wait a few days, and it will be in the 50’s lol, good morning 🙂

  8. This is not the clodest winter they’ve ever felt. It is the media that is driving all of this. Can’t turn the TV on w/o hearing “Polar Vortex”. It’s a meteorlogical term that is being used as a “buzz word”. It’s called Winter and it gets cold. Nothing unusual is happening here.

    1. Many, many generations past from those living during the 1600s and 1700s would be laughing at us. The 2-3 day surge of arctic chill was probably common occurence from Nov-Mar back then.

      1. I remember as a kid growing up in marshfield it was always cold and always remember frozen ice to skate on. Cold and snow was the norm. How I see it winter should be cold and snowy and summer should be sunny and hot because that’s how they should be.

        1. I would agree except for the extremes which create difficulty for many folks. There have already been many deaths because of the cold – just as there were from the extreme heat last summer. I wonder if there will be as many below freezing days as there were over 90 days last summer.

      2. You are so right, Tom. Even in my youth, it was more the norm than the exception to have multiple days of cold. I think the difference was that we didn’t have the fairly regular climbs up to the higher numbers where Matt will see rain at Cranmore. Once December hit, it was winter and there was skiing. Temps moderated from the extreme cold but only to what would be normal/average for winter.

    2. Agree. But again it’s all so alot to do with Syberia. That part seems to be overlooked. When I did some research on Syberia it’s quite interesting.

    3. Agreed. I am tired of Polar Vortex as a buzzword. Reminds me of many years ago when El Nino was all the rage.

      I can’t help but to think back to the Van Halen video, “Right Now.” In that video, they display many facts related to the title, like “Right now, “x” amount of kids have no food”, etc. I rememeber one of the facts read something like “Right now, is a space between Ice Ages.” True enough!

    4. The media continues to drive this, agreed, I also heard they had more people across the country covering the POLAR VORTEX OUTBREAK than most big snowstorms, tv ratings, the worse the people r believing this crap o well

  9. Totally agree that it’s not the coldest, but try telling that to millions of people on the streets that watch national news from Florida to Texas, us weather geeks know this, but most r not weather geeks, I saw signs in Atlanta that said NEVER FORGET THE WINTER OF 2013-14, the news has done a terrible job I think, especially nationally 🙂

    1. Charlie – cold is not unreasonable to expect – these are extreme colds. Atlanta and many, many other cities are breaking decade old records. Extremes IMHO are never the norm. Yesterday all 50 states (originally reported to be just 49) had freezing or below temps at some point.

        1. Charlie said: “…..it’s not the coldest, but try telling that to millions of people….”

          Vicki said: “….these are extreme colds. Atlanta and many, many other cities are breaking decade old records…..”

          If defensive is stating an opinion which includes facts…..I guess I’ll plead guilty. However, since you can state your opinion, I’d prefer to be able to also state mine. That work for you?

          1. I’m just stating what others have said, and what I’m seeing on the news, your reprimanding me on how either they or I should be reacting or thinking idk, moving on I plead the 5th also

  10. From cold to a rainorama this weekend. I did see a snow icon about a week from today on the 8 day forecast from our ABC affiliate here in CT. I am not excited about that threat. Without any big storms the weather is boring to me.

      1. Odd how that seems be true, John. Sort of like the Dec 9 timeframe. But then do we just remember a few (I think I do with 12/9). It’d be interesting if anyone had data and could pinpoint whether there are common times when we have storms.

        1. When our meteorologist Gil Simmons at WTNH the ABC affiliate say stay tuned as he for a mid week storm
          threat next week something could be brewing. He is not an alarmist and tells it like it is.

      2. Yep…and I am expecting it to hit on the 18th since I am hosting a baby shower for my cousin. We had her college graduation party the day of the Blizzard of 2005. I figure she is a storm magnet so I am counting on some good accumlating snow. 🙂

          1. A snow storm wedding IMHO is as good as it gets………..could be some just might not look at it that way…..maybe 🙂

  11. Reading the European weather websites, it looks less and less certain that cold will return anytime soon to the Northeast (I really don’t think it will for a rather long period), while it is more and more certain Western Europe will turn much colder. The warm-up here is also being underestimated, in my view. Not only will there be no snow-cover, we will get basically a summer set-up in terms of wind (direction) and position of a High to our south: Southwest wind with some sun means higher than 50, generally, even in January. The Cape will be colder than Boston and the interior. That doesn’t happen often in January, though it is typical in spring and summer. And this will go on for days and days, melting all the ice that had formed over the Charles in Boston. That ice will likely not make a comeback this year, as the sunlight hours are increasing, so even with a cold spurt in February ice formation will be much harder. All in all, I don’t think this winter will go down as a particularly cold one for SNE, unless February and March turn out colder. And January will likely not be an especially cold month. January may even turn out to be on the mild side when all is said and done.

    Parts of the Mid-West will likely have far-below temperature averages this winter. This includes Wisconsin, Minnesota. Even there, however, the warm-up will be felt and probably much appreciated by many.

      1. Agree, but it could be longer. Notice that each day this week the forecasts have increased temperatures starting this weekend and put off the return of seasonable cold by several days. I expect this trend to continue. The jet-stream is poised to change dramatically and stay that way for awhile. If I am analyzing this correctly, cities like Quebec City will see temperatures climb into the 40s for a period of time. That is rather unusual this time of year, even during a `January thaw.’ Bad news for ski country. Rain will obviously be an issue this weekend. But worse than that, any snow-making activities will have to be postponed for a while in most areas. While the cold has been potent and short-lived, the warm-up will be just as `potent’ but long-lived.

    2. I’d be interested in knowing if anyone else agrees with Josh’s milder than usual prediction. Thanks 🙂

  12. Never know but I think it’s short lived. My gut tells me something will pop up for next weekend only because I swear it seems it always snows or watching one that weekend.

    1. You could be right. But, look at where the core of the cold retreats to: Baffin and Ellesmere Islands, basically. Really far north. Retreat is perhaps the wrong word. It’s moving elsewhere, spreading on the other side of the pole, into Northern Scandinavia, Russia. Cold will come back. I should emphasize, normal, seasonable cold will come back, and perhaps by MLK day. But, I really believe we’ve had our coldest days this winter unless early February has a surprise in store for us.

  13. Charlie – since you have asked multiple times about an indoor bike place I took the liberty to search online. I did not find any such thing in the Massachusetts/Rhode Island area. Sorry…maybe this weekend when it is 50 your kids can bundle up and give the bikes a try.

    1. Thank you very much Sue, I looked as well and couldn’t find anything, this is why I was asking maybe someone knew of a place,, thank u again Sue, yes the 50’s this weekend I’ve already told my kids we will ride them this weekend.

  14. From Jim Cantore:

    Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore 18m Ridge will be back next week for west while it cools down again in east w/snow over the Great Lakes &New England. Coastal low maybe next Thu

    1. I knew it. Always something for that weekend it never fails. If it does this will be like the third or fourth year in a row.

  15. I have noticed over the years that it is typical here in the east to have some kind of unsettled conditions (snow/ice/rain, etc.) on MLK weekend regardless of how the winter overall ends up. It is almost unusual to have it totally dry all 3 days. I don’t know if it is just coincidence or what.

  16. Looks like the NAO is going negative in the days to come. Strength to be determined. Models typically have a tough time picking up on the blocking beginning and ending. We may see solutions change over the a next few days and I don’t believe any warm or cold solution is locked in right now in the extended period.

    1. You can hydro seed anytime but Dec-March, I prefer hydro seeding to be performed in fall, as u can’t apply a crabgrass preemergent 6weeks before or after the hydro seeding, you can hydro seed in April, BUT then the crabgrass preemergent is time sensitive bc u shouldn’t be applying a crabgrass preemergent beyond June 1st or so. If u do it in April, I would follow it up with a Fall/Aeration overseeding, hope this helps 🙂

      1. I am having a large area of my yard cleared(Large Oaks and Pines) as soon as the weather permits. Then some regrading in that area. The lawn in the front is rather clumpy so it appears I will have to spread some loam and reseed that area too. Not looking forward to a summer of dirt and rocks being tracked onto my new floors.

  18. The “MLK Weekend Phenomenon” is easily explained. It is climatologically normal to experience the passage of a low pressure system about every 3 days. MLK Weekend is 3 days in length. We can say this about any 3-day period in January. Nothing unusual going on.

  19. North, i saw your post about the NAO going negative. Is it forecast to be east based or west based?

    1. My links to those charts are no longer good. If you have new ones let me know. Think it may be more east based.

  21. re: Cold Winter

    This Winter has been perfectly normal as far as I am concerned.

    The only unusual occurrence to me was that we had a snow storm
    with the temperatures down around 0 and in some places below zero. Don’t see
    that very often. Also, the resultant 30:1 ratio was a bit unusual, but certainly
    has occurred before.

    Nothing out of kilter going on whatsoever. 😀

    As for Coastal low next Thursday… I’ll believe it when I see it. 😀

  22. I would agree with that statement as far as the winter being normal so far. Long way to go before the middle of next week but certainly something to watch and see if anything develops.

  23. IF the 12Z GFS is correct, some heavy rainfall just in time for kickoff on sat night. Bodes well for the Pats running game

    1. Agreed. Today’s 12Z GEM-GLB has the rain just getting going at 7PM with
      it getting heavier as the game progresses. 😀

  26. A few comments:

    TK is our voice of reason, indeed. But, Jim Cantore is not. Jim is prone to hyperbole. I take all of his predictions with a large dose of salt.

    My guess is that we will see several rain events the coming 10-14 days (uggh!), but no snow. It may `cool’ down some by MLK weekend, not not nearly enough to support snow. This said, ski country will be cold enough, and let’s hope that they get in on some snow MLK weekend.

    The kind of seasonable cold we may get by MLK weekend will still be above average for this time of year (upper 30s to around 40 during the day). The reason for this is that the core cold that is currently gripping us will be over 1500 miles from us. Any `cold’ from Canada will be moderate cold, as Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec will also be experiencing above average temperatures.

    Could this all change? Yes, but signs are pointing towards a prolonged significant thaw, with some rebound over a week from now with seasonable cold but still above average temperatures for the time of year.

  27. In terms of the winter thus far:

    Very interesting, with extremes on both ends (lots of cold days and nights, and as OS mentioned snow with temps in the single digits / but also some very mild spells and rain).

  28. Joshua, you have convinced me and I’m buying what you are selling (but reserve the right to return without a receipt, lol). We have seen happen what you are describing way too many times in more winters than not. Prolonged cold and snow have become the exception and not the rule. We also have to remember that seasonal average temps for this time of year are still in the 30’s to low 40’s. I don’t consider that cold when one thinks about a typical winter. Your analysis of the current conditions in Europe and how they correlate to our weather is correct more often than not.

    1. I would like to second that. Joshua, I always enjoy reading your analysis of our weather and how it relates to Europes.

      1. AceMaster, Vicki:

        I could turn out to be very wrong and I’ll definitely own up to it.

        I believe the average high in Boston in mid January is 34F – our coldest point (flip side is that the average warmest point is mid to late July – ~83F). This is why I say that upper 30s to around 40 will still be slightly above normal, though much more seasonable than what we will be getting this weekend and early next week. I think that 4 days straight of 50+ are not out of the question, and a 100 hour + period of above freezing temps are certainly not out of the question, in fact, almost a certainty.

        1. Hi Joshua – that’s weather – you just can’t be sure but you can give it the good old college try and no one can fault you for that. It is anything but an exact science. I just enjoy seeing your comparisons which make sense to me!

        2. Coldest ave High for Boston (Logan) is 36 mid month.
          It is 37 the rest of Jan and rises during Feb.

  29. If I may. At the moment I do not think this is a typical winter. I certainly think it is closer to what I consider a typical winter in MA than many in recent years have been. The temperature swings are not unheard of but, as I said previously, the constant swing upward to where the snow melts darned near as soon as it arrives is not what I remember. The cold we have seen may not seem abnormal to us in MA, but then we were one of the states that did not break any records, so it isn’t.

    Common sense (and TK:)) dictate that I not only look outside of my town but also outside of my state. There were 49 low temp records broken yesterday…..many of which had stood for decades. http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/01/07/weather-polar-vortex-cold/4354945/

    And that’s just temperatures that are extreme. San Francisco is having its driest winter in 40 years. Other states are also experiencing extreme droughts.

    Too many extremes for my liking to call it normal

  33. I love Joshua’s analysis but I disagree about the warmth lasting. I think by the 20th it will be cold and I see the cold holding through Feb.

  34. I think this will be a typical January thaw that lasts about a week and then winter will comeback. This upcoming mild stretch an intermission break for winter.

  35. Daylight may be only a little bit longer, but noticeable, I can see the sun still as of 4:15, as 2 weeks ago I was not able too 🙂

      1. Also in just 2weeks the sun will be setting at this time, so it will be light out till closer to 5:30 🙂

    3. Sounds very cool !! Perhaps a goal for public school systems down the road …. The obvious issue being ….. to assure that everyone in a public school system has access to the internet from outside of the various schools.

    4. no way in heck.
      1. not everyone has a computer
      2 many families only have 1 computer.
      many families have more than 1 child or have someone working at home
      3 snow days are exactly what it says. its a time when kids can relax.
      if the teachers are not at the school their work place they should not be paid for that day sorry my opionion if you want to get that money it should be for a day that you have kids sitting in desks in your class room. I highly disagree with this. It would not effect me much now anyway but will effect my brothers and if i ever have family i do not want to say get to the computer you have school i would want to say go shovel me out and then go sleeding or have a snowball fight. Schools are already encroaching on way to many things. stay the heck out and if you have me on facebook you know how liberal i am just to show you how much i hate this idea

  37. Thanks, OS, for correcting me on the coldest average high being 36. I thought I read 34 somewhere, but clearly I misread it. Still doesn’t change my thinking about the temps we’ll have during MLK weekend: Around 40 and therefore slightly above average. Prior to that a lot of southerly and southwesterly breezes with concomitant rain, rain showers, and periods of early spring-like temperatures (50s).

  38. Josh Pete thinks the cold comes back the end of next week. Like other have said I find your posts full of information and have always liked reading them though I wish you would post more often. But In regard to the warmth sticking around I’m not sure I can buy into that theory with the warmth staying for an extended time if you will. I have obviously seen that you like to look at weather in other parts of the country and how it could influence our weather here. Now I may sound like a broken record here but how can we ignore the above average snowfall that fell during the month of October in Syberia and how that can influence again our weather here in the northeast. The stats and record keeping on it is astounding. Above snowfall during the month of October translates into cold, cold winters. I started following Syberia weather when I heard an interview with Dr Judah Cohen who is a very well respected in his field of seasonal forcasting and has based alot of theories on the weather in Syberia. I have since talked to mr Cohen several times through email. Ok now I’m loosing focus, any thoughts.

    1. You didn’t lose focus john. I thought you worded your question so it was easy to follow. I’ll be interested in Joshua’s response or responses from all

      1. John, Vicki:

        I’m out on a limb, indeed, and perhaps that limb will be cut off. Please note, I am not saying that the real warmth that is most definitely coming this weekend (a 30-40 degree jump from yesterday’s high) will stay on for more than 4 days. What I am saying is that what follows the mild spell is not an outbreak of cold, but a lengthy period of more seasonable (and slightly above average temps; around 40 in the Boston area) weather, not especially conducive to snow-fall.

        1. Josh, that’s all good but I’m more interested on your thoughts on the above snow for Syberia and how it can directly affect us here in the northeast.

  39. Joshua’s thoughts and the latest CPC Outlook don’t show any arctic cold for awhile which is one aspect in common. The CPC has near normal temps and above normal precip, which probably would mean rain “or” snow depending on storm tracks.

    So if you take the CPC verbatim, Joshua’s temps are a bit too warm, but again NO ARCTIC AIR returning for awhile. We will see.

  40. In 2009 the snowfall was way below normal for the month of October in Syberia. We all know that for that winter of 09/10 was a very warm winter.

  41. im surprised what the weather channel just said about the polar vortex… that people should not be getting crazy about it it happens all the time, every winter. no big deal the big deal is the cold that came down with it. This is the first time in some time that they said something inteligent

  42. I’m actually wondering if I could get mr Cohen to explain it here in a one time post if tk would not mind and of course if Judah would do it. He was here lurking but he is into longer term forcasting not day to day. Any thoughts.

  44. Thanks TK!

    I keep seeing posts on Facebook from people saying they can’t believe how cold it is in January. … It’s January. Not July! Unreal. I mean, I know that it’s really cold, but it’s winter!

    Anyways…

    I hope everyone is having a good week 🙂

    1. There are people trying to tell me: “This is the coldest January we’ve ever had”. Want to know why? Because some media outlets TOLD them it was. Now I don’t expect those people to be climatologists and know this is clearly not the coldest January we’ve ever had (the country as a whole or New England), but those in the media have the responsibility of getting their facts straight. And this is not just an “oops”, it’s a blatant misinforming of the public in the name of ratings. And it’s wrong.

      1. Agree TK. They’re irresponsible with almost every other news issue out there so at least they’re consistent. In the meantime, it keeps the global warming headlines off the front page which is a nice side benefit. Tough to sell global warming when people are burning their houses down trying to thaw pipes.

      2. Totally agree, TK! In recent years, the media in general (some outlets worse than others) disregard the importance of reporting the facts. It’s all about ratings!

      3. Wellll I bet you know I have an opinion. The coldest January???? We are just a week into the month. How can anyone even think that. The coldest few days. Absolutely accurate. As I said, at least 49 records, many decades old, were broken. Records are kept/referred to in major cities. Perhaps there is a rough average of 4 major areas in a state where records are referred to. That would be one quarter of this country did in fact see the coldest weather. Even if it’s one third or one eighth, it was the coldest weather for those areas. Fair statement.

        The media? It’s their job. Those listening? Why would anyone believe it’s the coldest January when they know it is only a week old?

  45. Isn’t Siberia spelt with an “i”? Or is it a “y”? For an English major I’m not the best speller 😛 I get confused. Sorry John!

    1. 🙂
      John, I pretty sure most of us have made the mistake of a spelling error or two! Nothing to be embarrassed about, here 🙂

  47. Joshua I think when temps are more seasonable that’s when snow chances increase IMO. We get the contrast of mild and cold and a battleground usually sets up. Our snow chances diminish when it’s either really cold it clearly when it’s too warm.

    BTW Saturday night looks messy as heck at Foxboro. Wind and heavy rain

  50. Charlie or all …….

    A south wind at Gillette ……

    Is that a breeze across the field or favoring one end zone vs the other …..

    1. Saturday’s prevailing wind would cut diagonally across the field as the stadium is aligned almost but not quite due N-S.

      The wind will probably be blowing straight up Route 1 N (from SSW to NNE) if you want to look at a map and get an idea.

  51. John don’t worry about a misspelled word or two. I have recently discovered 1 or 2 words I have done that with my entire career, and they were weather-related words. 😛

    One time one of my teachers misspelled “mispell” (as it is in quotes there). 😀

    Blog is updated!

Comments are closed.