Mild Weekend / Wintry Work Week

306 Comments

3:48PM

A mild air mass has invaded the region for the weekend as a warm front has lifted north of southern New England. A cold front will sweep through the region during Sunday with a few rain showers, but the chilly air behind it won’t really be felt until the late night hours.

The first several days of next week look more typical of February, with near to below normal temperatures and a couple storm threats. The first, Monday, should pass largely south of the region as low pressure moves along the recently-passed frontal system. Snow should occur in parts of southeastern New England, but at the moment accumulations look minor and mainly south of Boston. A quiet but chilly day is expected Tuesday as high pressure dominates. The next storm system will be a direct hit on Wednesday, and this fast moving system will start as snow everywhere due to the cold air in place. The uncertainty is what happens as the storm progresses. It should warm aloft enough to turn the snow to sleet/freezing rain in parts of southern New England. There is a significant chance that this system stays mostly snow or all snow north and west of Boston. It’s too early to talk about snow amounts. The end of the week is expected to be cold and quiet.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 32-37. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 42-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers early. Lows 22-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. A period of snow possible, especially Boston south. Some accumulation likely, especially south of Boston. Highs 30-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 32.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/sleet/freezing rain likely. Low 26. High 32.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 28.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 31.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 17. High 34.

306 thoughts on “Mild Weekend / Wintry Work Week”

      1. If you look at hours 78 and 84, you can see a weakness in the pressure field centered near and just north of the NC Coast. It doesn’t show up as much other than a very weak inverted trough, but it’s there. That would be the start of your secondary.

  8. so im hoping the storm goes a tad further north than current indications. I now do not like the trend that is happening

  9. Yesterday my aunt in Elizabeth City NC left me a message saying that she got 10″ of snow and I called her back today and she said that my other aunt who lives in Norfolk VA received 12″…WOW!

    She said that it is warming up nicely now and that next week all the storms will be rain in her area and I told her that here in Boston will probably be on the colder side with mostly snow next week. They in the mid-Atlantic and south have great difficulty with snow while it falls and right after it ends, but once warm air returns, things go back to normal. My aunt also said that the kids haven’t been in school since last Tuesday.

            1. Exactly. Though I will say at this stage of the game it’s the most confident I’ve been on a storm this far in advance since last winter.

  12. Cool. Downloaded hey, hey what can I say last night to my I touch and two live in concert songs from bob Seeger turn the page and beautiful looser.

      2. Cool link, OS!
        Vicki, In 1974, Lou Reed recorded Sweet Jane as a solo artist along with several other Velvet Underground songs. I believe that’s the more popular version of the song.

  17. Mike Wankum already has numbers in mind for Wednesday’s storm, but has not officially posted them on his postential snowfall map:

    N&W – 6-12″
    Boston – 4-8″
    South to Cape – 2-4″ with less on Islands

    2. Philip actually yes and no. He said way to early to put numbers on it being so far away but he said if had to put numbers down today that’s how he would go.

  18. We have a first meeting with a new client about 20 miles in from Portsmouth NH Wednesday. I know its early but is significant snow expected in that area? Thank you !

  22. Oldsalty I think we have alot in common, not a bad tune. I like the start standing on a corner with a suitcase in my hand. Now my background tells me that was no luggage, lol.

  23. thinking currently.
    all snow north of rt2.
    mainly snow north of the mass pike, northwest ct. all of western mass.(berks) though sleet might mix in.
    areas south of the pike will be the “battle zone” with snow changing to a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and we will have to watch the rain line.
    cape, islands and most of southeast east mass will see the snow or mix change to plain rain for at least some part of the storm who ever stays as all snow can see heavy to significant snowfall. level 4 to 5 snow event. everyone north of the pike should get at least 6 or more inches.(level 3 event)

  24. The legend has spoken:). I agree with him 100%.

    @BarryWBZ: Certainly Not Etched In Stone… BUT it cannot be ruled out that 4 Potential Storms Could Yield More Than 18″ Of Snow In The Next 8 Days!

    3. Of course some people will take that to mean we’re getting more than 18 inches of snow in 8 days, and it’s not going to happen like that.

  25. Some others in my library oldsalty tunes from pearl jam, foreigner, zz top, ac/dc, four tops, temptations , Brian Adams, Seger, led zep just to name a few. I also like to easy listen/ Kenny Rogers, manilow, Neil diamond and Sinatra to name a few.

  26. I run from big band to Vivaldi to all 60s music and bands. I love new age. I like kenny Rogers too John. Sinatra, Williams, Crosby, etc. are legends. New Country. I’m not so fond of a lot of music of the 70s till now…..although in a gadda da vida drum solo gets me every time and love CCR

  27. The Wednesday storm looks like a mess, snow/sleet and rain, I think south of Boston sleet will hold down accumulations to under 6 inches 🙂

    1. im actually on board with you south of the pike looks messy though northwest ct and all of western mass would be the exception. north of the pike 6 or more still a ways out

        1. I’m in my late 50s but my tastes run the gamut…Love the 60s…70s not so much (until we get to the Clash, etc in the late 70s)..love the 80s and 90s…Recently I’ve gotten into music by Mumford and Sons, Lumineers, etc. Favorite band for the past 20 years or so..The Goo Goo Dolls. Also a big Sarah McLachlin fan. If you want to see (and hear of course) some good music go to YouTube and search for Live at Daryl’s House (Daryl Hall of Hall and Oates Fame). Here is an excerpt from one of his shows with John Reznick of 0f the Goo Goo Dolls.

          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMZ9b0hAvIg

          Some other good ones are with Todd Rundgren, KT Tunstall, etc. Hard to believe Daryl Hall is 67

  32. the marching bands are starting to be able to get spots again in the superbowl line up. hopefully soon, all this crap at half times go back to the marching band.s half time is marching band time!! 🙂 put all these smaller bands and “singers” before the game.

  33. The Wed storm will be colder than most think. Matt just bc storm is cold south doesn’t mean you don’t get snow, so relax and you will get it 🙂

    Charlie of course it’s gonna mix!! Lol

  34. Channel 5 posted a map to FB showing snow to sleet to rain for Boston. I love how confidant mets are this far out.

    1. Agree. I’ve not been confident about this storm being an exclusively snowy event for us coastal dwellers. We’ll see. And Hadi is right that we’re still a good 4 days away. But, temps are likely going to be an issue.

  37. Did someone mention Lou Reed, Velvet Underground? Lou Reed is one of my favorites. A band not familiar to most, but immensely influential with respect to New Wave and Punk was born and raised in the Boston: The Modern Lovers, with Jonathan Richman (Natick) as their lead vocalist and guitarist, along with Jerry Harrison (later Talking Heads), and David Robinson (later The Cars). They mirrored Lou Reed’s Velvet Underground in some ways. Never into selling records, they remained truly avant-garde, writing songs in 1970 reminiscent of the Velvet Underground, but also foreshadowing the NYC and later London punk movement. You can even here White Stripes in some of their songs, and Iggy Pop, and even The Sex Pistols. Please note, I’m not exclusively into punk at all. In fact, mostly not. My musical taste is eclectic: From Dvorak and Brahms to Billie Holiday and James Taylor to The B-52s and REM.

  39. Storm track on 0z GFS, I think, looks to be trending further south, though mid layer mildness is still making it into southern New England.

  40. Barry Burbank this am.

    Monday: Coating to possibly an inch in Boston and 1-3″ in SE MA and Cape. Mentioned the storm is trending south, but he thinks it will be a tad north of the current track. Won’t amount to much in any case.

    Wednesday: A very, very wide swath of 5-10″ including Boston at this point. Mixing in SE MA and rain on Cape. I got the feeling his snow map was subject to change.

    Beyond: He mentioned a couple of more possible storms … Sat, Sun, Mon timeframe … with one having the potential to be larger , but was quick to say it’s a ways off.

    Barry once again said there is the potential for 18″ from all of the above.

    1. I agree with everything he said but I don’t think I’d have mentioned the 18 inches thing. People just misinterpret that kind of stuff. 🙂

  41. Phil saw his shadow 6 more weeks of winter. Will see.
    Super Bowl Sunday is here going Seahawks 27 Broncos 24.
    It will not be boring this week with 3 shots of wintry precipitation.

  42. Euro and both gfs now colder. Nws using analog to Feb 23 2008 storm. I think a watch will be sout at some point for 6-12 range.

    Euro has close to .75 qpf

    1. Cut the Euro’s precip a little bit and we’re in business. I think JMA would concur?

      I do believe that most areas see mostly snow and some sleet from the Wednesday event.

      1. What time is this starting TK ? Are Superintendent’s seeing snow falling at 5am Wednesday morning ….. (although it does seem the calls are being made the night before more these days.)

    2. With that analog, i wouldnt expect watches up in any counties south of boston. Less than 6″ for those counties. Boston “officially” had 8.9″ from that storm but a lot of 2-4″ amounts just south of the city. Jackpots were wocester east into middlesex and essex counties and into southern NH. I suspect a lot of mixing took place.

  43. From my Facebook page a short time ago:

    Breaking News: “Woods Hill Bill”, the world’s most unknown and fictional groundhog, if he existed, would have emerged from his hole in the ground in a wooded area devoid of guys in black hats and a huge crowd of cold people that all have needed to use the bathroom for hours, and seen a very dim shadow as the sun rose into a hazy morning with very light fog and higher clouds above, and started looking for something to eat before giving up and going back to sleep, leaving the weather forecasting to me. And I can’t tell you if winter weather still has 6 weeks left, but I can tell you that winter weather returns tomorrow. But first, today will be a mild day with a little sun and patchy fog early, then clouds and a few rain showers. High temps in the 40s, may touch 50 in a few spots.

  44. Cutting the euro’s precip a bit, say we end up with .7″ liquid. At a 10:1 ratio, which i think wont be eclipsed this time and might even be a little generous given the marginal temps, would give 7″ of snow best case. Where did the qp’s of > 1.0″ go? Trend toward weaker systems continues. Bit this time, im not so sure is weaker, but more that its moving so quickly.

  46. I believe Monday is mostly a miss with even southern locations maxing out at ~1″

    Pre-dawn for first flakes Wednesday with heaviest in a 6hr window from 8am-2pm subject to refinement as we are still 72 hours out. Mostly snow, some, but minimal amounts of sleet mixing in. Yes cut the .75 down by a tenth or two.

    Agree that I would not have mentioned the 18″ thing. You will have people hearing 18″ and think 18″ is coming from the next event or for the Saturday event. I don’t have any strong inclination about a significant event for next weekend.

      1. Great timing to call OFF school and WORK??
        Need it to come down really hard, even for only a few hours. 😀

  47. For Wednesday:

    06Z GFS, surface:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014020206&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=084

    Snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020206&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=096

    Total qpf:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gfs&run=06&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

    This represents about 24mm or .94 inch, which puts it on the higher end of guidance. 😀

    1. Nice map Matt.

      I think the mix line orients itself a little more West-East rather then
      the SW-NE orientation you have depicted. Also, I think the Mix line
      is a little farther to the South. We shall see. 😀

  52. Regarding next weekend. I know it’s a long way off, so I won’t post teaser maps, however, I have to say:

    The Euro, GFS and FIM have a very Signifcant east Coast storm. Very early inidcations
    are that it could be a large snow producer in our area. Too far out to know, that’s for
    sure. Models have been on it for days, so we’ll see. Have to get through this one first.
    😀 😀 😀

  53. From Taunton NWS office this morning:

    ANTICIPATING BOTH F-GEN/ ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTHWARD WITH HEIGHT OF THE WCB RESULTING IN WEST-TO-EAST SNOW BANDING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN…BUT IF THE PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT AND HOLDS TOGETHER UP TILL THE TIME OF THE EVENT…SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMS AND WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST REGION.

    1. What’s good about this time of yr, is when it does snow, it’s gone rather fast, this will be the same imo, off to church 🙂

      1. IDK Charlie. We still have 100% and have for a few weeks. Or is it a couple? After yesterday I am just starting to see some grass tips appear

        1. IDK either. AS a kid I would always be waiting
          for the snow in March to melt so we could play baseball.
          It just was OH so slow to go. 😀 😀 😀
          Of course we were inpatient at all. 😀

      2. Charlie, this year, it hasnt been about the time of year. Every time this winter we’ve had snow, it was gone rather quickly.

  54. Looking like the brunt of the snow is gonna be well north and west of Boston.
    Got a party of 71 Seattle fans coming over, at the party you must wear a Seattle shirt, or a blue 1 will do, I don’t think there will want to be any donkey fans here today, it wouldn’t be fair for them.
    Biggest sports game this country has to offer, THE SUPERBOWL!!! 🙂
    When will this be a national holiday?

    1. Why on earth would you say that Charlie? Makes no sense at this time, even if it were eventually to work out that way????????????

      1. The way the track is trending south, central and NNE might get shafted, again. I think jackpot will be worcester to boston north into southern NH

      1. That’s an earlier run. We’ll see what the next run brings.

        BTW, on the last bigger storm we had, the SREF was
        brutally bad. 😀 😀

    1. Think it keeps going down the coast. Would be for them to get a little precip. Doesn’t look like a huge amount for them.

    1. Agree. And the food :). Macs making a cheesecake as I type. I’m up next in kitchen. Budweiser commercials are always my favorite.

      1. Every other year unfortunately. Even when it was john madden i couldnt stand it. I never understood the fascination with him.

    1. I think Barry has a handle on this. eh? 😀

      BTW, he tweeted to someone that isolated 12 inch amounts would not
      be out of the question.

      Personally, I would have gone with 6-10, but I’m a fussy SOB. 😀 😀

      1. BTW, if it hasn’t been clear, I think that Barry Burbank is the BEST on air Met in the Country!!!

        Harvey is a very close 2nd and I reserve the right to move
        Eric Fisher in there at some point, perhaps sooner rather
        than later. 😀

      2. For a short duration storm its gonna have to come down pretty hard for a 12 incher somewhere. The inflated ratios are a thing of the past, id be surprised if we even get to 10:1

        2. If some guidance qpf verifies, we’ll be disappointed
          for sure. Imagine ending up with just 4 inches of snow???

          I’m hoping for a solid 6-8 inches and wishing it comes
          in at more than that. We’ll keep watching. 😀

      3. Of course, the map says 5-10 possible, but not probable. 🙂 He reserves the right to tweak that down to 4-8 after he consults with me..

        J/K!

    2. I sent that to my business associate earlier and based on your comments yesterday also he made a reservation at a hotel near where our meeting will be on Wednesday. For both tues and Wednesday night.

    1. Bought my son a decent North Face jacket last winter, and it’s certainly been tested out this winter! True to its name – warm and comfy!!! He claims the local mets are reporting most of Feb looks to be more of the same. It’s been a tough winter for folks in the mid-west!

      1. We have had it bad, they have definitely had it worse. Those jackets are definitely getting their use here and there.

  62. We have friends flying off for a Caribbean holiday very early Wednesday morning. They leave Logan at around 6 am and then They’ve got a short stopover in NY departing for St. Maarten at around 8 am. It sounds like they’ll be taking off in the early part of the storm and will fly through it… Will NY be experiencing this at all? They’re flying via JFK.

    1. Amy yes nyc will be experiancing this storm unlike many of the other storms where it only affected a smaller region, this storm will affect a much larger area. Nyc will probably see something similar to what southeast mass will be. snow to icy mix to rain

      1. Topkatt88

        … The imposters usually mess it up, and even if they don’t, you can tell by their writing style that it’s not me.

        1. I knew when I saw today’s. the one I saw yesterday was just a quick comment so the jury was out. I’ve learned on BZ that its best to err on the side of caution. There’s one on Keller that has a personal dislike of me even though we have never met. He posts under 3 names A lot of twisted folks out there 🙁

  66. I just wish Wednesdays storm could come in earlier. Regarding the game today it does not matter to me who wins but if I were betting this game I would take Seattle because I think there a better team right now and very good defense, there actually good on all sides of the ball including coaching. Pete has done well for himself since coaching here. So that’s my two cents as I pick Seattle and not because of welker or manning, because I just think there a very tough team.

  67. Hadi, I’m not sure I could find 71 Seattle fans, I was being funny, but it wasn’t even my idea for everyone to wear Seattle blue, it was everyone else’s, rooting against the arch enemy. Again it’s not about respect, it’s about the arch enemy in Patriot Nation, good day all

  75. I think this is going to be a close game. Seattle has to dominate time of possession and get pressure on Manning.

  77. I am surprised no one here has mentioned that Wednesday’s storm will be a Miller B.

    Also, Ms. G saw her shadow and her accuracy rate is 60% compared to Phil’s 39%…fwiw.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the Old Farmer’s Almanac isn’t much better than Ms. G. 😉

  79. Even though the specifics for next Sunday’s storm is for now extremely uncertain, I am already getting the impression that will be the strongest of the bunch regarding precip and winds.

    TK, do you agree on that much?

    1. Right now? No, I do not. I think ultimately that storm is going to end up strung out and further south than has been modeled so far.

      I think the “biggest” of the series is Wednesday, and that is only going to be moderate.

  80. 12Z Canadian made a Gargantuan jump in QPF for Wednesday’s storm!!!!

    Surface:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=078

    QPF:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemglb&run=12&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

    30mm 1.18 inches

    Note there is also a very small amount of Sleet indicated.

    What is the CMC seeing all of a sudden that others are not?

    Wednesday is looking more interesting.

    2. Can’t get all of the details from WUNDERMAP, but 12Z Euro
      qpf looks to be up. Hadi, do you have the numbers??

      Placement of low looks great as do 850mb temps and 1000-500MB thickness.

      So far, so good. 😀

  82. I made up a really bad weather joke today. Anyone wanna see if they can get it?

    What does a meteorologist need when he/she is forecasting the weather?

    Hahahaha

  83. Tomorrow just got a little more interesting for my part of CT. Latest snowfall from NWS in Upton now showing 2-4 inches before it was 1-3. In addition snowfall has increased in NYC from 2-4 to 4-6.

    1. The cut-off will be very sharp. 2 inches or less anywhere in SNE, and I may be generous with the 2.

  84. That Wednesday system is going to be moving so quickly that it doesn’t have a chance to become anything that big. I don’t think anybody reaches double digit snow.

    Euro has backed WAY OFF on next Sunday’s “bomb” to what is more likely to happen. This is not a pattern (even the new pattern shift) that produces the classic biggie. It hasn’t been, and isn’t likely to become that way any time soon.

  86. Looking like a moderate storm on Wednesday, but I’m still quite concerned about a changeover to mix/rain in the Boston area. I fear I’m sounding like Charlie, but other than Wednesday there really is not much going on this week. All the talk about a busy week with storms may have been over-hyped. Rare to see Barry Burbank over-hype, but his 18 inches over a 7 day period seems way off mark for Boston, unless I am missing something? Possibly a trace tomorrow, 3-6 inches on Wednesday in Boston before changeover to sleet/rain, and then maybe a few inches next weekend. The disappointing thing is that the mountains really don’t get much, either.

    1. I’ll take 0.55-0.65 for Boston, 0.75 max. Compact snow, some sleet mix.
      4-8 inches for Boston area Wednesday. Storm is too fast-moving. Not a classic.

    1. I think it does. I know the tempature above but I think it’s close to 40 for daytime tempature Wednesday. Thinking low end falls for boston as of now but could change. Could be wrong as well.

      1. Part of the issue with Wednesday is this is a daytime storm in February. If it were a powerful storm, accumulation would not be an issue. It is not. Moderate snowfall during the day in February doesn’t do very well in terms of accumulation. So even if this turns out to be an all snow event, with marginal surface temps and too much daylight accumulation will be fairly light.

        1. That would be true at the end of February but not so much in the first half of the month.

          There will be enough intensity to accumulate easily. You also don’t need a powerful storm to get moderate or heavy precipitation. You just need decent lift. We’ll have that.

  90. I’m still sticking with my guess 2 days ago of 4-6 inch south, 6 in Boston, 6+ north and west
    A lot of mixing south of Boston IMO

  91. ..94 total qpf from euro. I totally agree not a classic and faster mover. But a storm that’s dropping a decent slug during the day. It seems like every storm people want to poo poo the storms bc they are not huge but I don’t see anyone calling this one a monster. Euro is cold through all layers of atmosphere at kbos.

    1. Hadi I think some people just giving thoughts on what they think may happen. Sometimes I think you may just get caught up with the higher total amounts. I’m kind of liking what josh just posted and very much agree. Enjoy the game hadi.

    2. I can’t speak for others but I’m not poopooing any storm. I’m giving a forecast. And I think the QPF from the Euro is, as usual, too high for most of the region. All the models forecast too much precipitation. I wish I knew why.

      1. And the nam being the worst one of all of them. I said it earlier in the week and will again nam is garbage.

        1. Lately, the only time the NAM has a half decent shot is inside 48 hours. Outside that, forget it.

  92. No I just get the sense every storm people are calling for what they want vs what might happen. I have been wrong plenty but I in eat is calling for a major storm. I love these 4-6 or 4-8 storms. Pretty bit not bad enough to cause major problems.

    1. I’m just really concerned with the tempature as this is a daytime storm. Last I checked the projected tempature was about 38 degrees and Tuesday night was about 28. I’m going to look again. But that also could change.

      1. Most of the region will be 32 or below during the day Wednesday, except some areas near the South Coast.

    2. I have about 30 here now, but about 20-30 will show up around 6pm, I did have 71 on the guest list though lol 🙂

    3. ill be the party pooper and go with a seahawks jersey i don’t want manning to get a ring he already got another mvp which honestly alot more players deserved it. Alex smith with out him kc would have been a nobody. cam newton. whats his recievers? tom brady did what with who exactly. And bill deserved coach of the year or KC coach but none of that happened. also andrew luck can be thrown in there as well. manning would have done nothing if he had what brady had 🙂

  95. Hadi that’s a significant jump for the Euro. From the Wundermap it looked to be up.

    Ok, now EURO jumped from what .78 to .94
    CMC jumped from .43 to 1.18

    Tk says red flag. Ok I can buy that for one model, but 2?
    Also, the short wave can now me sampled, so why can’t there
    be a legitimate jump.

    Ok, granted perhaps not a classic, but still relatively loaded.
    It will be a quick impactful dump of snow.

    I still think 6-10+ is in order. Let’s see.

    Oh, NO RAIN in Boston, perhaps a tiny bit of sleet, but probably no sleet either.
    Mixing happens farther South.

    Just my thoughts and opinions for whatever they are worth.

    I’ll be watching. 😀 😀

    1. One other thing. I have to respectively disagree with this day time
      storm/sun angle stuff. The daylight hours will NOT have an impact on this particular event. Again, just my opinion.

    2. I respectfully disagree with 10+, I agree with tk that it’s overdone, and that the snow is gonna be very compacted, we shall see, I think 6 will do it in Boston IMO, good day 🙂

      1. But that good ol nam is sucking people in, not sure why. I said it earlier most snow tomorrow again is for the cape. Non event for most.

  98. random stuff

    62% ice cover on the Great Lakes currently ……. 96% of shallow Lake Erie is covered. That must look kind of neat.

  99. * Yes, red flag is still raised even if 2 models do it. Been there, done that.

    * I have never and would never forecast what I want to happen. If you want to see that, visit some of the many FB pages out there run by non-met’s. Wishcasting Land.

      1. Would never ask you to stop doing what you love to do. 🙂

        I’m watching too – anything can happen.

            1. John, I’ve never tried it. Will have to give it a shot. Always have gone with either Bejing House in Norwell or Feng Shui in Cohasset. Both very good.

    2. Yet you are a fan of DT?

      I’m not sure what I did above that constitutes bashing to you.

      I’d welcome a clarification so I can understand a bit better.

      1. The only bashing TK would do is if he bashed his head, or if he threw a bash. He’s throwing a small Super Bowl “bash” tonight with his family and a friend (with his kids). And TK hasn’t really had his head bashed many times in his life. Though, coincidently, in 8th grade he had a run in with a football 😉 But other than that, TK isn’t a basher 😛

      2. No, Not a DT fan because he bashes- I have said that. He is often on the edge but I like his presentations. It is very thorough. I am just surprised what you said , that’s all

  102. Agree TK. This is still an open wave in a zonal flow. I am fine with the idea of. General 5-8 storm for Wednesday. Temps will generally 27-32 region wide.

    Last night our old WXC SuperMicrocast model was spewing out the farther north advance of tomorrow’s event. Now GFS and ECMWF are on board. I was an 1″ on that. Might have to go 1-3 on that now from north to south. Boston being northern edge and Hyannis south.

    Right now I believe Wednesday is the biggest of the 3 or 4 modeled events.

  103. Do the NWS offices ever conflict or is it some unwritten rule that they should always be in synch ?

    For instance, if you take Taunton’s current 4am snowmap and extrapolate it west, you’d be taking a D-1 inch prediction and run it right into a 2-4 prediction that Upton has as of this afternoon.

    As we’ve seen, Taunton always seem last to go. I mean, will that automatically increase their far southern snow total predictions because Upton put that out there or has anyone ever seen 2 different takes on a storm ?

  104. Winter Weather Advisories posted for southern CT for tomorrow thinking is 2-5 inches. If you look at the 18z NAM it goes along with the advisory. I am not buying the NAM. I think this is a 1-2 inch snowfall for those that seeing accumulating snow in SNE tomorrow.

  105. We are having NJ tuna melts, NJ meatballs, BBQ honey wings (not NJ) and from jimmy at the James (not to be confused with JimmyJames I don’t think) NYC Amaretto ‘stoned’ sours….whatever they are. And macs NY cheesecake. I confess, football is as much for the food 🙂

  106. Vicki that is making me hungry reading your post. Speaking of food and I found this out last night Super Bowl Sunday is the second biggest consumption of food day behind Thanksgiving.

  107. Sad news about Philip Seymour Hoffman, a one-of-a-kind character actor.

    And some sad news from Sugarbush where a UVM sophomore lost her life yesterday in a skiing accident.

      1. Yes, drugs do kill, especially heroin. The country is in the midst of the worst heroin epidemic in many years. Most addicts are not wealthy actors like Hoffman. Nevertheless, heroin doesn’t discriminate when it comes to killing. It kills regardless of socioeconomic status.

        1. Plenty of addicts have money. Half of Hollywood is addicted to drugs or alcohol. It’s a disease and mental illness that destroys everything.

      2. The young woman (19) from Rhode Island lost control and struck a trail sign. Not an icy trail. In fact, generally good conditions yesterday. Just a freakish, sad accident.

  108. I am somewhat surprised that the Boston Buoy water temps haven’t gone down well into the mid-upper 30s by now given the arctic cold we have had. They currently are still stuck flip-flopping between 39 and 40 degrees. I believe the ocean temps are at their lowest around mid-February so we will see. 🙂

  110. great lakes are holding a race that they had not done for about 98 years across lake michigan this upcoming weekend.

    this storm might have some tricks up its sleeves. and anyone along or south of the pike gotta watch all levels of the atmosphere to determine if they are going to have all snow or not, the stronger the storm the better. the weaker the storm the further north that mix line makes it.

  112. CNN had the same video for punxatony (sp) Phil that BZ had. But CNN reported he didn’t see his shadow. My daughter had seen the CNN and my grandson had his homework on it done before she mentioned it to me. I said perhaps he should do a report on media ineptness ????

    1. Just goes to show you how locked in patterns can get. How many times have we seen this so far.

      JMA just sums it up perfectly and so long at the flow is zonal and the waves are open……

      I’m wondering now if the Wednesday system will fizzle even more. Very possible and even likely given the winter.

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