Chilling Out

177 Comments

7:28AM

Not much to add to yesterday’s update. It’s a stretch of relatively quiet and cold weather with the only somewhat notable things being a long stretch of mostly below-freezing temperatures into next week and only some clouds moving in Saturday and a chance of some light snow or snow showers Sunday from a pair of disturbances that will not link up and become a big storm. The next legitimate storm threat is not until about the middle of next week, and that’s too far away to know much and do anything other than give a very early call on resultant weather.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH, few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 coast and urban centers. Wind W 10-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs around 30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 20. Wind light NW.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow or snow showers. Highs around 30. Wind light N.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Fair weather. Lows 10-18. Highs 25-33.

THURSDAY: Snow/rain possible. Lows around 30. Highs around 40.

177 thoughts on “Chilling Out”

  4. Euro trending warmer for potential storm next week, now looking like thurs 2/13 but we know that can change. Honestly though, this far out, we were supposed to get a monster storm for this sun/mon and look how thats shaping up, or not shaping up, so im not buying into anything until 3-4 days out.

    1. lol, i dont think the NAM knows what the NAM is doing on a daily basis, especially at 84 hrs.

      About 2/13, i was wondering that myself. The GFS has the system too but takes it east of us but is still too warm. There must be a lot of warmer air coming up the eastern seaboard right before then. Not buying into anything right now as it will likely change 100 times between now and then and will probably go poof anyways.

    2. 12Z NAM coming out now, we’ll see if it still develops that clipper for monday. If its still there for a few more runs then we might have something.

  6. Morning,

    Thank you all for the kind comments about the blizzard pics.

    Retrac,

    You said we were close in age???? You lost me. You say you were 7 at
    the time of the blizzard? That pic had my 6 year old daughter?
    What kind of Math are you using? 😀 😀 😀

    Valentine’s storm, IF it materializes will be RAIN.(!@*(#*(!&@*(#&()!*@#()

  7. Its a shame we couldnt get that southern stream storm in here for sunday, would have been a doozy. We saw wednesday what happens when we can actually get some gulf moisture into a storm. Might have been our only shot.

  9. 12z nam does not show anything for Monday now, not really surprised…see what the other 12zs have to say

  10. Hello from the Absent Minded Professor here…..

    Left for work (casual Friday) with a heavy sweat shirt on.
    FORGOT to put a jacket on. I got outside and realized it, and figured,
    what the hell, I feel comfortable, screw the jacket. I was fine, didn’t even
    feel cold in the cold un-warmed up car.

    18 degrees out and no need for a coat.

    I’m all right. 😀 😀 😀

    1. Ugh..

      Tons of confusion for late next week.

      GFS nothing
      Euro has something at our door step
      Canadian has OTS

      We’ll keep watching.

  14. I suppose a quiet pattern is good for next week. Let the kids get in the full week of school and then it can snow all it wants during February vacation.

  16. TK, you deserve credit for being the only met I know who has consistently forecast a relatively dry pattern. You’ve done this for many months now. It seemed like every met, not just HM!, was saying a week to 10 days ago that we were entering an “active pattern with lots of systems,” a “February to remember,” “snow measured in feet, not inches,” etc … Well, all that hullabaloo was just that … Nonsensical hype … Notwithstanding a nice 1qpf or so on Wednesday, we are continuing a very dry pattern, which may be troublesome come March or April. Brush fires are not common in spring, but have happened in recent years (2012) and may happen again if we don’t begin to make up the deficit.

    1. I agree to disagree, it’s been a little dry, but not nearly like we were many months ago, we r in a light drought, which is not bad.

    2. Agree, Joshua. You are correct that TK has indeed seen this all along

      On the good news front, CA is getting some well needed rain. 6″ perhaps through the San Francisco area. Not enough but that will help. And I believe I heard 4 feet in the mountains – their reservoir. It’s been over a year since they have seen more than 1 inch in any month.

      1. Looked at wundermaps, looks like after that nice position it goes east of the BM and skirts coastal sections of SNE with some significant snow. Definitely a shift from the rainorama it was showing

  18. Looks quiet like tk said for sometime, I figure the mid Atlantic hasn’t had much snow, give it to them, they deserve it 🙂

        1. ? every storm has trended north and this will be no exception but i do see warmer temps after so that should make you happy if that’s possible 🙂 🙂

      2. That’s a big call hadi, so your saying a major snowstorm 12+, this far out, ok I’ve defiantly done that, that’s for sure, I respectably disagree, southern energy is moving, and moving fast. Take it easy 🙂

  21. I will say, I dont like the position of the high on that run. Retreating to the east after being in a nice location in eastern canada leads me to believe it will come closer to the coast with retreating cold air allowing warming to take place along the coast.

  23. Here is the Euro for next week.

    http://i.imgur.com/mShazc1.jpg?1

    Suddenly colder. How’d that happen????

    Needs to come a bit closer for anything meaningful, although Hadi did
    say .5 for Boston. What would that be? 4-6 inches or so, depending on exact
    ratio.

    Perhaps it gets more intense as well. We shall see.

    Meanwhile, how boring will this weekend be?

    YAWN……………..

    I HATE Boring weather. 😀

    Here’s also hoping that Sunday/Monday yields the surprise of the Winter!
    Fat Chance of that. 😀

      1. It’s boring for me. I like action every few days or at least something going on. I like weather to be sure, but I am much more interested with ACTION.

        I love snow storms.
        I love thunderstorms.
        I love hurricanes

        I get excited if we can break a temperature record, either high or low.

        I DO LIKE beautiful weather in the Spring, Summer and Fall, just NOT in Winter. If we’re stuck with Winter, then PILE ON THE SNOW and make it interesting. Sunny day after sunny day in the Winter is BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOORRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG.

        1. Couldn’t agree more. I am much more interested in action during the winter, probably because there is not as much to do. In the spring/summer/fall I love boring weather because I can work in the yard, go for a walk, barbeque, etc….the options are endless

  25. The reason why even the Euro can flip flop is no different than any of the models. Initialization presents the model with a set of conditions. But the equations we program them with, though they do a great job mathematically explaining the physics of the atmosphere and attempt to predict them, there is enough wiggle room (or error) inherent in them to result in the differing results run-to-run. You all pretty much know this anyway, but it’s important to remind ourselves of it. That is the base reason why I just never try to get specific for any event more than 3 days out.

    1. Of course and very sound advice. It, at the very least, can keep us sane
      as the models do their flip-flop-O-rama. I’m getting a kick out of it.
      It has taken me a long time to accept this.

      Over time, these models can be improved in at least 2 ways:

      Better initialization – more data points and hopefully properly accurate data to boot.
      Better algorithms – When we know more, change the programming to reflect that knowledge (hopefully without f’n up what was already in place).

      By the way, as one intimately knowledgeable of computer programming, I can’t even begin to explain the INCREDIBLE COMPLEXITY of the programming
      involved with these computer models. It is truly amazing!!!!!

      I have written a complete Blackjack simulation program and a 3-card poker simulation and practice program. Let me tell you,
      that stuff is kindergarten work compared to what is in these models. Sort of
      like writing a sentence compared to a 500 page novel and even that doesn’t do the model programming justice.

      I AM thoroughly impressed by what they have accomplished.

      1. Canadian has gone that route. 😀

        But, to be honest, this Winter, systems have trended North
        and not South. Has it now changed? Who knows.

        I’m not taking the over/under on this one. 😀 😀

  27. I love all weather, even if its boring, but as OS has said hurricanes,thunderstorms (especially when I lived in Texas) and love snowstorms in Dec/Jan, after that I’m done cuput, none, ziltcho, of course unless its a true 1 in 100 yr storm then sure bring it. Good day.

    1. I don’t want anymore 2-4 3-6 inch snows, I’d rather have no snow, if its gonna snow if its gonna be 2ft + lol, if not bring on spring 🙂

      1. Ahhhh but if you love all weather, you do exactly that. You don’t like the big storms and not the little storms….and on and on. After all that would be the same as rooting for the broncos to win the Super Bowl. A true fan is either all in or……..he ain’t a fan 😉 😉

  29. Gotta love the 18z, lol. However, it would not surprise me if sundays storm trended further north.

  31. My reasoning for suspecting a southward trend on model forecasts for the midweek event is because I believe models may be erroneously forecasting the southern stream and therefore also forecasting too much interaction between the 2 streams. I think they stay out of phase and separated until will offshore.

    That said, the pieces of energy are still so far away. Just a general error I think the models are suffering right now.

  33. 00Z GFS still wants to pop something for monday. Now drops 6″ around boston. GFS is the only model showing this feature

    2. Not for nothing, but that is two (2) consecutive runs for the GFS, and the
      0Z is strong than the 18Z. What will the 06Z and the 12Z run hold for us?

      btw, Eric Fisher words tonight, the latest information shows a Juicier storm.
      Hmmm don’t we use that term all of the time here. Has he been lurking?

      Si something up or not? Latest 0Z Canadian shows just little something.

      Tomorrow, we’ll know more.

      Your Grand Mother is on the roof. 😀 😀 😀

    1. NW, not too bullish, but they expect something:

      https://scontent-b-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn2/t1/1186679_572494526178256_1433757427_n.jpg

      06Z GFS:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014020806&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=051

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020806&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072

      This is down a wee bit from 0Z Run, BUT, this is three (3) consecutive runs

      Euro has a spit of snow as does the NAM and Canadian, but NONE of the other
      models even come close to what the GFS wants to generate here.

      IS it an OUTLIER? OR is it onto something.

      Looks like NWS is taking the middle road.

      Thoughts?

        1. NWS says it has some support from the RGEM and SREF. I don’t have links for those. Do you see that OS?

          1. North, Let me check. I’ll post a link to SREF.
            Not sure of that other. RGEM I think is the
            Canadian Regular: CMC-RDPS a.k.a. GEM-REG / North America (mesh: 10 km interpolated to 15 km)

            Be back in moment.

            1. Here is the RGEM at 48 hours:

              http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=048

              Here’s the SREF:

              http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014020803/SREF_PMSL_1000-500_THK_BLW_f057.gif

              And snow map from SREF:

              http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014020803/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f057.gif

              So There is some support other than
              the GFS. Even so, I’d like to see
              the Euro, Canadian and NAM on board.

          1. It would! I remember a storm in the 80’s that was to explode off the Jersey coast and bury us with 18 inches and then it went poof the night of the storm.

    1. Canadian for Thursday:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=144

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=156

      GFS (actually for Friday)

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014020806&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=147

      AND the GFS is TOO WARM, but the others are cold.

  39. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    In the northern hemisphere, an area of low pressure produces wind in what direction?
    A. Clockwise
    B. Counter Clockwise
    C. West to east
    D. Direction storm coming from

    Answer later today.

    1. Ahh, So What’s up Doc?
      Seriously, what are your thoughts on Sunday night/Monday?

      I’m thinking we get something on the order of 3-6 inches. 😀

  42. B.
    1-3 inches at best for Sunday night into Monday morning.
    Today one year ago was the start of the blizzard of 2013. As I said the other night this is my generations blizzard of 1978. Snow began falling on Friday and lasted into the day on Saturday. At the height of the storm there snowfall rates were close to 5 inches an hour in some places across SNE. It was the biggest snowfall from a storm I ever experienced in my life getting 30 inches of snow with the snow drifts the highest I have ever seen after a single storm. Some of them were taller than me and I am 5 foot 9. People after the snow were snowblowing there streets in some neighborhoods since plows couldn’t get there which is something I never saw in my life. Truly a memorable storm and one I won’t forget.

    1. JJ,

      To be sure that was a nice storm. “about” 25 inches here. Top 5 or 10 storm.
      Take what you experienced and multiply by 2 and you have ’78’ for us. 😀 😀

  43. Old Salty what was amazing here in CT was the snow depth in CT was greater than the blizzard of 78. Hamden, CT was the big winner or loser depending on your prespective with 40 inches of snow. However the winds were stronger in the blizzard of 78 than they were in the blizzard of 2013.

    1. JJ, the blizzard of 78 had many communities with 40 inches or more.
      Lincoln, RI came in with 51 icnhes. Logan “only” received 27 inches, but here in
      JP we had 36 inches and as one moved SW the totals went up to 48 inches.

      And the WIND! I can’t even begin to describe the wind. How we didn’t lose
      Every tree in the Neighborhood, I’ll never know.

      1. I mentioned in my memories post that the wind was insane.

        That was one of the only winter snowstorms I remember in which the wind was shaking my house with its gusts. I have a BIG house.

  45. Since the GFS is alone on the playground, I’m hesitant to call for more than an inch or 2 at this point. But would it surprise me to see an area of 3+ inches from the Sunday night event? Not at all. This will be the weather puzzle to complete in the next 24 hours.

    1. Not totally alone.

      FIM has it as does the RGEM and the SREF (see above), but of the generally known biggie models, Euro, Canadian and NAM, NOPE, not a clue. I have one of those old time feelings about this. Are these feelings wrong sometimes? YUP.

      It shall be interesting to see how it all pans out.

  46. It also must be noted, the snowfall measurements during the Blizzard of 1978 (27.1 Boston) and Presidents Day Storm 2003 (27.5 Boston) were not only taken somewhat differently, but also someWHERE differently. 1978 was at the airport. 2003 was in East Boston. There was a “newer” more frequent brush-off method used in recent years. Therefore you were adding up smaller segments of less-settled snowfall. That would have easily accounted for more than the 0.4 inch difference between those 2 storms. I think history and pictures clearly shows that the impacts of these 2 storms were nothing alike. 1978 was such a bigger impacting storm it makes 2003 look ordinary.

    The greatest difference between these 2 storms was the wind. No comparison.

    1. Totally agree and that sums it up nicely.

      In fact, I don’t even remember the 2003 storm such an impact it left on me. 😀

      1. I remember it as a big snowstorm, one of many I have seen. And that I used to work with the guy that took the measurement. Nice guy! Great observer! Just a different location and measurement method. I think if the location and method were the same, the snowfall would have come in at closer to 24-25 inches for that storm.

    2. Tk, on that note:

      What is the current “official” way to take snow measurements?

      I still do it the old fashion way. When the snow is done, I stick a yardstick in it and whatever it says, it is. 😀

      1. Good question. I would assume drifts, etc., would skew. I would think multiple measurements from different locations and averaged?

    1. So far, NAM showing a swath of 4 inches worth to our West and that’s BEFORE
      it hits the coast. 😀

    2. Like I said days ago…when they say OTS I don’t believe it. Never did on this one. The last thing I want is more snow, but knew it was coming. It’s the pattern. I seriously wouldn’t be surprised it we got a foot. I can’t take another school day!!!

      1. The original “monster” of a storm we were supposed to get sunday was to have origins in the gulf. That storm will still go OTS. Our potential snow light snow event will be originating from a piece of northern stream energy and redeveloping near the coast. Completely different ideas than previously thought.

        1. Which is why I always speak against the type of premature hyping of potential events so many days away. We’ve heard of this weekend’s storm being “measured in feet”. Last Sunday evening, a local TV guy said “Whatever we see on Wednesday is pretty much what we’ll see again next Sunday.” I could go on, but you get the idea. 🙂

  48. All I can say about the NAM is that it shows much more precip than previous runs,
    but doesn’t ever really show a storm. The 4 inch swatch did NOT translate Eastward.

    I guess what I take from this is that the NAM is TRENDING to more. Onto the next run and of course the rest of the 12Z runs.

    1. No surprise. I think the GFS is showing its bias of overdoing the northern stream features. Still won’t turn my back on the possibility of some removable snow Sunday evening. Can’t deny that we’ve been in an “it wants to snow” pattern.

  53. I dont know if anyone mentioned this ….. but the melted precip totals for last Wednesday’s storm ended up being ….

    1.11, 1.28, 1.06 and 1.12 ( and I think that was Logan, Hartford, Providence and Worcester ….or the last 2 might be reversed).

  54. JimmyJames, I like the way you worded the comment that 2013 was your generations 1978 but also that 1978 was the benchmark storm for the SNE. I agree with you that a year ago will be what you, my kids, your generation will remember (so far) as your 78. It doesn’t have to have the same impact to create the same feeling/emotions or whatever the word is. The lead up, the road closures statewide and then to have the storm verify to me had far more impact than the Presidents’ Day (that apparently had little enough impact that I can’t remember) and the April fools storm along with a few others. It certainly would rank second for me…..even in front of my wedding day storm 🙂

  56. Oh well, I jumped the gun On tomorrow night. My Bad.
    Gfs has really backed off. Oh well.

    Re Valentine’s Day
    It will certainly snow now that we have dinner reservations!!

    GFS has a warm SOB for then:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014020812&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=141

    Canadian really doesn’t have it.

    Euro has a really nice looking system. Here’s Instant maps and then I’ll see IF available on Wundermap:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014020812&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=120

    Wundermap not ready yet.

  57. Good afternoon, looking like a quiet week ahead, with temps moderating towards the end of the week, enjoy the weekend, the season opening company meeting is Feb 21st, and the season begins March 3rd applying lime applications, then at the end of March fertilizer w/ crabgrass reducers r applied, I can’t believe it’s almost that time again, I think we receiver 1-2 more moderate events, then done IMO 🙂 we shall see

      1. Sometimes it can be mudmonths and can last into April. Don’t think that will be the case this year as the ground will probably dry out early.

    1. Sounds nice. Don;t like GFS and FIM.

      Also, DT says Euro ensembles takes it the HUGGER route as well.

    2. Beautiful map, Charlie. Remember last year on March 22nd, we had a similar map. That is unlikely to repeat any time soon, that late in the season: all of NE (even the Islands) under some snow cover.

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