Cold & Bright Today, Stormy Tomorrow, Then?

333 Comments

11:51AM

High pressure hangs on today with one more cold and dry day. In fact, this morning was quite cold, with good conditions for radiational cooling – calm winds, low dew points, and a clear sky. Low temperatures dropped to near or below zero in many inland areas, especially valley areas. But the quiet cold is about to come to an end.

Onto the storm. Let’s keep it simple. Deepening low pressure is going to come up the East Coast Thursday, pass over Cape Cod MA Thursday night, and bomb-out (rapidly intensify) as it moves through the Gulf of Maine early  Friday then away from the region. For southeastern New England, expect the following…

Precipitation/timing: Develops as snow from south to north from dawn near the South Coast and Cape Cod to mid or late morning in northern MA and southern NH. Grows heavier as a rain/snow line (or change from snow to rain) pushes first across Cape Cod and the Islands then into southeastern MA, the North Shore of MA, and NH Seacoast from mid morning through around noon, then westward from there through the I-95 belt and at least to the I-495 belt through the afternoon, including RI and into part of interior southeastern NH. Unclear exactly how far the rain/snow line gets – will follow this during the storm. Dry-slot with less precipitation works northward into southeastern and eastern MA by early evening, but there may be a few lines of heavier rain showers and even thunderstorms in this region. Wrap-around moisture as the low pulls away moves back eastward as snow to the west and rain/mix back to snow eastward, though may be only spotty and light the further south and east you go in MA and RI. All of this should exit the region from southwest to northeast Friday morning.

Snow accumulation: Coating to 1 inch Cape Cod and Islands, 1-2 inches near Cape Cod Canal and Buzzards Bay areas up through eastern and central Plymouth County MA, 2-4 inches southeastern RI up along and just east of I-95 to the NH Seacoast, 4-8 inches west of this region with the higher amounts near and outside of I-495 from the Mass Pike region northward, 8-12+ inches in higher elevations of north central MA into southwestern NH. An additional small accumulation may occur when a change back to snow takes place in the early hours of  Friday.

Wind: Gusts 40-50 MPH likely along the coast from the E as the storm approaches, becoming variable as the low crosses Cape Cod, and backing to N as the low begins to pull away toward the Gulf of Maine early Friday morning. Inland winds will be less strong, but will likely get stronger from the NE to NW during the morning Friday, gusting 35-45 MPH. Some wind damage may occur especially where wet snow weighs down trees and power lines. There may be little or no snow on trees and lines where winds are strongest, however, which would reduce the risk of outages somewhat.

Coastal flooding?: Astronomically low at this time. Minor flooding and moderate splash-over likely especially around the time of high tide Thursday night (9PM-midnight). Splash-over is likely on north-facing shores during Friday morning’s high tide, but should be relatively minor.

After the storm… Winds die down later Friday with dry, chilly weather. A weaker storm system comes through Friday night and early Saturday with some snow shower activity. High pressure builds back in later Saturday through the remainder of the holiday weekend (Sunday-Monday) with dry and cold weather.

Looking ahead… Low pressure approaches Tuesday but may track north of the region with a snow to rain situation for parts of southern New England, though it does not look like a major storm at this time.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, RI)…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 20-28. Wind light N.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows from near 10 interior valleys to the lower 20s South Coast, but starting to rise especially coastal and southern areas after midnight. Wind light NE to E.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Storm arrives as snow south to north during the morning, changes to rain eastern and southeastern areas midday and pushing inland somewhat afternoon. Snow/mix inland, rain tapering to rain showers and possible thunderstorms later afternoon and evening further east and south, but some heavy rain possible in these areas. (For detailed snow accumulations, see discussion above.) Highs 32-44 from northwest to southeast, warmest Cape Cod. Wind E to NE 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, especially coastal areas, becoming variable over Cape Cod / Islands late day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with mix/snow tapering off then another period of snow inland areas later, rain showers eventually changing to snow showers further east and south. Lows 25-30. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Snow or snow showers possible through mid morning eastern MA and southern NH. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late in the day.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy with snow showers early then partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows around 20. Highs around 30.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows around 10. Highs around 25.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Lows around 10. Highs around 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow to rain. Lows around 25. Highs around 40.

333 thoughts on “Cold & Bright Today, Stormy Tomorrow, Then?”

  1. Thanks TK

    I can’t even believe this!! What a storm and we end up getting shafted!!! So frustrating for snow lovers!!! That dam high and no blocking!!!

  2. Thanks Tk, hadi I do feel for you and the snow lovers, I honestly do, on the other side, we’ve done we’ll so far, and I’m sure we will get more snow, good day hadi 🙂

  4. Already well known that I am a snow lover, but also a weather lover. A storm like this does not bother me in the least. I’d rather watch how it unfolds and give everyone the best info I can to keep then safe. 🙂 It’ll be very interesting to watch that low come right by us and bomb out like a meteorological meso scale black hole.

    1. I guess its cool to see this kind of storm, but its the sloppiness that bothers me. If we had no snow on the ground and we werent getting an inch or 2 of snow on the front end followed by rain, then yes, i would somewhat enjoy it from a pure meteorological standpoint. Just cant do it.

    2. Agreed. I freely 100000% percent admit I don’t want any snow this time around, and I am glad it won’t be feet. Hoping my outside garage grate isn’t full of frozen water.

          1. I went out to buy a new one yesterday. I called five Home Depots and only one had roof rakes in stock and it had 54 of them. Wouldn’t you think they’d share the wealth?

          2. Lol. I have the rake and did the bottom half last week. My problem is now I have ice damns half way up the roof. I too didn’t go for the battery backup in the basement. Going to get a small generator to use in case at some point soon.

  8. I would like to blame the news for stating the blizzard of 2014 was coming 4 days ago, and causing wasted money on contractors removing tons of snow that normally they wouldn’t, I just talked to a fellow that works for massdpw, and said they spent the last 2 days removing snow, I just think sometimes technology can cost us as we’ll. he said hey they got paid, but what a waste.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Should the low track 50 miles further east it could become very interesting for those of us at the coast. But, I doubt that will happen.

    Charlie, I also see 50 in the long-range, but it’ll be a short-lived warm-up. I think the remainder of February will be normal for the time of year with highs around 38-42 and lows around 26-30. This does not preclude more snow. It can snow, even without the kind of Arctic air we’ve been experiencing. By the way, after the weekend I do not think we return to a truly cold air mass this winter. I know I’ve said this before, but my hunch is we do not.

    1. even channel 5 has it right on the 3-6/ 6-10 line
      channel 7 is 5-8
      only NECN had us i a “bigger amount”
      i guess 5/6 inches of slop and rain

  13. Noyes article gave me a popsicle headache. We shall see. Very surprised hes going out on a limb especially since hes usually conservative. It would be like TK putting all his eggs in the GFS basket. Wait a minute… 😛

  15. Matt Noyes’ article was very good and I really like the analysis he put forth under either scenario. I found his comments on the NAM and it’s better performance of the rain/snow lines given it’s higher resolution. This is New England and anything can happen as we all know. I see a lot of people jumping off the snow train in droves, but I think it will be very very close. Not an easy call by any means, and certainly not set in stone

  16. I was just commenting with someone on FB, and let’s take it this way the change should happen somewhere around 2 PM and if it starts around 7 and then ramps up to about an inch an hour by 9-10 AM. What if the rain holds off a couple hours which is possible then we are looking at 6+. Who knows it is NE!!!

  18. Whether the ERUO is correct or not this will be a close call, EURO has dropped temps from 00z run and in fact only warms up at BOS for a small QPF time.

  21. 2 things I wish I knew ….

    what will the dewpoint depressions be when the precip starts? The dewpoints are so low right now. Having a temp/dewpoint of 34F/21F when the precip starts will create a far different scenario than if the temp/dewpoint is 34F/31F at the start of the precip.

    What about this front end precip ? If its heavy in eastern sections, I think we snow right to the ocean and get a quick few to several inches at the beginning. If its light or even moderate, it could well be a rain or mix with little accumulation.

    1. Just curious beacuse I cant see it ….

      Whats the pressure or has it stayed consistent, dropping from the low 980s to mid 970s as it tracks nearby ?

      And, where’s the track …… over SE Mass, over Cape Cod or SE of Cape Cod ?

      Thanks Hadi !

  26. I just talked to my SIL. She is in Clayton County and apparently they have the most of all power outages in that county. They are getting ice and have what she estimates to be a bit less than 1/4 inch on everything. She just lost power and said all she hears is the arcing noise and cracks of trees. The northern section of Atlanta and north of there is expected to get 6-8 inches of snow. She is currently scheduled to dead head on a flight from Atlanta to Salt Lake City tomorrow at 7:00 am. I’ll be very surprised if that happens.

  27. Last night, I was looking back at the Dec 9, 2005 bomb that had 60-100 mph wind gusts on the Cape as the storm departed.

    One thing that struck me was that the overall pressure of the low, even after it had bombed, was not tremendously low. In the summarizing articles that I read, I got the idea it was the rapid pressure fall within a short window of time that had a big contribution to the wind on the backside of the storm.

    There were some other unique features to this storm that were mentioned and I could not begin to recall what they were or explain them.

    I only bring all of this up because it appears this bomb is headed for a 20-25 mb drop in 24 hrs and that seems like quite a steep fall over a fairly short window of time.

  28. Geez, I think about an inch of rain is very possible, and its gonna be pouring it looks like for the pm commute

  29. Hadi that animation loop u posted pretty interesting! If i am reading it correctly it shows the 32 degree line hitting eastern massachusetts but at same time we are still in the blue zone for snow? Doesn’t seem like the rain gets here even tho the 32 degree line pushed west right? not untill the end atleast

    1. It looks like dynamic cooling at play while the precip is heaviest and then as it lightens up the change over would take place which make sense. Whether or not it will play out that way is another question

  30. Heavier precip keeps it snow and it lightens up rain moves in. Seems to coincide with euro temps but I am no expert. 🙂

  33. Boy Raleigh is taking a beating, people leaving cars on the roads, public transportation shut down etc.. what a mess. My brother and his wife live in Chapel Hill and I warned them days ago and they are home riding it out.

    1. I’m surprised they didn’t learn from Atlanta – I heard comment from maybe mayor of Charlotte that said they didn’t want to get stuck the way Atlanta did last week.

  34. I’m no expert either, but I believe the euro is under accounting for that strong easterly wind, and the nam IMO is much better at this range, what the hek do I know, I just follow the models, good day 🙂

  35. Again, this is a warm storm for eastern new england. Heavy snow quickly transitions to heavy rain from southeast to northwest.

    CC and the Islands: 0-2 inches and then quickly changes to rain
    South Shore and Boston: 1-3 inches and then a change to rain by mid to late morning
    I-95 to 495: 3-6 inches and then rain by noon
    495 to Worester: 6-12 and possibly mix by mid afternoon
    North and west of here: 12+ All Snow

    2. I like your confidence, but I’m not sure I agree. I think its going to be ever so close with this one and wouldn’t be surprised if it snows more than forecast. Usually a wind off the water is a kiss of death, but it’s at its coldest. Also I don’t have this information, but how long is the wind expected to be east vs say ene? Track is also very important here and that’s never set it stone

      1. A mean track from a blend of the current computer guidance suggests a track over and very close to Cape Cod. That is not a favorable track for snow for our parts. Additionally, while it is true that water temps remain cold, 37+ degrees is 37+ degrees which can and will influence air temperatures. The ingredients are just not there to support a mainly snow event. This is a sloppy one from I-495 eastward.

  37. Hope there is a surprise for you guys in eastern New England. I am hoping it stays mostly snow where I am and very little mixing but the mix line going to be close to where I am. I am curious if NWS out of Upton stays the same with their 10-14 inches predicted for my area.

  38. Its hard for me to take the euro’s snowmap seriously when it is saying 6+” into central GA when that’s obviously not going to happen. Its showing sleet/frz rain as snow, whats to say its not doing the same thing up here?

    1. My sister in law said that it is snowing north Atlanta and above and she’s hearing they will get 5-8″. Sleet south Atlanta and below.

    1. It’s just the beginning of a warmer trend Ace. This storm will go down the drain for much of us in eastern mass.

  45. AND its the 18Z, lol. How many times have we been told to throw that one out?? 😉 Ok, ill admit im grasping at straws now, anything to keep a slushy mess from happening.

  46. Looking over OBS and Temps down south IE Raleigh, so far its way colder than modeled and way more snow anticipated. Not sure it means anything for us but just interesting.

  47. 18z NAM to boot. And I don’t think the models ever handle these types of situations well regardless. There are so many factors at play in determining a rain/snow line and a small change one way or the other from what the models are depicting can have a major impact. I think it’s going to come down to dynamic cooling and whether or not that can keep the snow around longer. I keep going back to the Saturday in January where it was too warm to snow and bam it snowed…different situations obviously but not handled well by models

    1. All models now trending toward the western envelope of possible tracks. Dynamic cooling or no dynamic cooling. It will not be enough to overcome the easterly and southeasterly winds as the storm approaches. There is nothing to suggest that this will be a competitive rain/snow line around these parts.

    2. The surprise might be that we may end up with less snow than some of the weather departments are forecasting ;D

        1. He was talking about the Euro. It came in a little colder. I and the NWS had been giving it more weight.

          A colleague of mine was saying “don’t we usually see model convergence closer to the event? seems like we’re still seeing some divergence” … and he’s right.

  50. arod, NWS service still has us in western norfolk county under a winter storm watch. Whats up with that? I think its an indication we will be in the battle zone between rain and snow. Eventually going over to rain yes, but maybe holding onto snow a bit longer?

    1. That WSW could be downgraded to a winter weather advisory with the next update or two. Western Norfolk could see 3-6 inches before it changes to rain. Is that warning criteria? I think it comes up short.

        1. They are likely taking into consideration the impact that the storm will have on both commutes tomorrow. Also, the wind and heavy rain will play a factor. Whether you want to call it a WSW or a WWW, this particular corridor sees 3-6 inches and likely closer to 3 inches before it transitions to rain.

  51. Nws tweet

    @NWSBoston: Complex #snow forecast for the City of Boston: 1-3″ E. Boston including Logan, w/4-6″ west side of City (Brookline, West Roxbury, etc) #MAwx

  52. In the public’s mind ….if there’s a 2-3 hr dump of moderate to heavy snow from 7-10am and it rains a good part of the rest of the day, it wont matter that the majority of the storm was rain, all most people will remember is the tough AM commute.

    I’m still somewhat bullish on snow chances.

    I feel, over the years, I’ve seen enough cases where there was snow or even rain to snow for a while when initial heavy precip moved through ….. occurring in a situation where rain was expected. I think its quite dependent on precip intensity and I’m going to gamble that there’ll be some heavy precip early on.

    Still like about 4 inches early on in the event at Logan and a bit more (6 inches) not too far inland …. then a big ramp up in accumulations well inland with elevated areas doing best.

    We’ll see. I’m so looking forward to the radar and satellite presentations of this thing as its pressure falls through the low 980s and into the high 970s.

  53. Being in between 495 and Worcester is rough…right on the border line of 12 inches of snow right to the west and 3-6 right to the east…

    2. I know what you mean. It’s like being right on the pike (well not literally). To the north is one thing and to the south is another.. I’ve learned to average (Tom would be proud of me) 😉

      1. Yea I agree Vicki. When forecasters say North of the Pike or NW of 495, I technically meet both conditions but I know that the forecasters mean well NW and well N most of the time

      2. Same goes for living right on 95. When they say, west of 95 it will snow, and east expect rain. No one ever says, well, if ur right on 95 expect…

  54. This thing is starting to really crank down south. It will be interesting to see how quickly a changeover happens if at all for the big cities along I-95 along the mid-atlantic.

      1. DT is swearing up and down DC gets big snows, people are calling him out on it and the rest of his forecast, kinda comical actually

  56. NWS still stick with 10-14 inches for my area. This better be mostly snow otherwise I don’t think those totals will be acheived.
    Mark I hope you get a dumping of snow in Coventry.

  58. Western norfolk county now under winter storm warning for 6-10″ of snow before changeover. I will say, my weather is more like northern bristol, under an advisory for 3-5″ so I’d say about 6″ is a good bet.

    1. 18z GFS showing def more snow than the 12z but that’s partially because it drops a lot of back end snow in the predawn/early morning hours friday

  62. The tweet the NWS just sent basically says that the snowmap should be taken with a major salt grain.

  63. What will the high temperature be at Logan during the storm? What will the high temperature be in Manchester New Hampshire during the storm?

  69. Oops Pete committed the snow map sin… one area that ends with 5 inches and the next area that starts with 6. So nobody can get between 5 and 6. 😉 teeheehee

  71. So what’s the deal? I keep hearing how this is trending wetter (rain) but the snow amounts keep creping up.

    1. I’d term it, “uncertainty”.

      Unless I have major reason to change, I’m sticking with what I put out.

    1. if the 1-2 inch per hour snowfalls do not happen in the areas where ice could happen then amounts reduce drastically and go orange.

  76. After seeing NECN all day with 9 inches for me… Thy nibble their map down, as this happens chan 4,5,7 all beef up their totals 9-12 inches?
    This is why I teach history. And weather is my hobby lol

  77. From Wx synposis not sure how accurate they r but they indicated something interesting, I dont think it plays a huge role here
    COASTAL LOW WHICH I CIRCLED IN PINK, IS STILL EAST OF FORECASTED TRACK, AND IT HAS NOT SHIFTED WEST YET. VERY LIKELY LIKELY THIS LOW COULD PASS HATTERAS, NC TO THE EAST INSTEAD OF TO THE WEST INLAND****

  78. It’ll get windy tomorrow, and rainy at the coast (sadly; always a bit hard to believe it’ll warm up and rain after a beautiful winter day like today), but nothing like merry ole England:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26150788

    They’re just getting hammered by storm after storm. Looking at satellite imagery you can see the distinctive curl that these lows form, sometimes with what looks like a hurricane eye. These are devastating wind and rain storms. I recall in the mid 1980s that at the end of every news broadcast on BBC4 they would have a shipping forecast, and rare was the day during fall and winter that there weren’t warnings posted pretty much everywhere in the Irish and North Seas.

    1. Amazing and thanks for posting. Awful mess. The swans would be beautiful if not for the circumstances. And how very English is the comment ….””We don’t usually have a river view – we very much do now.”

      1. British understatement, taking things in stride, stiff upper lip. Very admirable qualities. Though they have their share of problems, GB is not a nation of whiners. I enjoyed their pluckiness and humor immensely. Still do.

        2. We had a visitor at work today from one of our sites in North Wales. I heard him on the phone, must have been with his wife and kids telling them to be safe during the storm. He sounded very worried.

    2. Ahh…BBC4…still heard here almost everynight on longwave at 198khz…and the shipping forecasts are still there too 🙂

  80. Wow kbox changed since my last look early this morning. Has me in the 14-18. Not sure I buy that but it looks pretty.

  82. I wonder where my area stands, since I live only a mile or 2 from Cambridge!
    SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
    INCLUDING THE CITY OF…CAMBRIDGE
    423 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014
    WINTER STORM WARNING
    …ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCH

    2. 3-5 inches in Boston and 6-10 in Cambridge. Does this mean the Charles river is our dividing line? I think it’ll be a moot point as the `warm’ air (east wind) ramps up and everything changes to rain rather quickly, in fact, by late morning. Cambridge could see a couple more inches than Boston, say, 4 versus 2. But, all of that will wash away during the afternoon and evening hours. It’ll be a mess no matter what, with glop everywhere, cold rain falling.

  86. Temp has already started to rise, it was 15.3 at 8pm, now 16.1, temp should be in the low 20’s at 6am I’m thinking

  87. The comma head precip Thursday night looks more reasonable in its placement ….. over western New England, heading northeast into the green and white mtns.

  88. At hr 42, expansive area of 50-60 mph wind gusts out over the ocean east of Cape Cod, with 30-40 mph gusts in Southern New England. At that pt, low is progged to be 974 mb over Eastport, ME.

    1. Well, I think I’m concerned about the NW wind behind the low, along the coastal plain, lasting about 4-6 hrs from when the low travels from just east of Boston to downeast Maine. Seems this run of the NAM increased the winds on the back southern side of the storm and given the pressure, I’d think that makes sense.

  91. And the 18z GFS ramped those surface winds up as well. Its in the 39-42 hr timeframe on both the 18z GFS and the 00z NAM.

    On the 18z GFS, there’s a 3 hr window of 50 mph NW winds along the whole Massachusetts coastline and a small contour of 70 mph winds just SE of Cape Cod.

    Dont like !!!!

    3. Me either. Thats one thing we havent experienced yet this winter, a strong low just offshore producing strong winds

      1. Major erosion on CC from this one. Natural process, of course, as the Cape is a unique peninsula that transforms during our lifetime. Amazing. Still, disconcerting. This storm will likely be more damaging than any snowstorm we’ve had this winter.

        1. I spent a lot of time in Eastham during the summers when I was young. I remember how far the parking lot used to stick out at Nauset Light Beach on the ocean side. We have watched over the years as the lighthouse has been moved back, moved back and then a few yrs back, they just moved it across the street. And of course, the beach parking lot has often been changed, as it has slowly been retreating inland…. Neat to watch the transformation over time.

          1. I’m seeing The ocean move closer and closer to the houses at Humarock also. I know its not an astronomically high tide but now, even for a run of the mill high tide, the ocean gets far too close. I felt a bit sick when I read just the winds that are expected

            1. Isnt that road at Humarock that parallels the South River a great, scenic road to drive ? But, at high tide, as you say, I dont think there’s more than 3 vertical ft btwn the height of the water and the level of the road.

            2. It is scary. 70mph is practically hurricane-force (Cat 1). I sort of doubt that kind of wind will occur, but this storm will be powerful, nonetheless. I think coastal communities like Scituate, Hull, and up near Cape Ann, will get hit hard, too. We tend to focus a lot on snow during the winter and the havoc that can wreak, but storms like these cause considerable damage to properties, boats, power lines, even without any snow at all.

          2. Me, too. Spent summers camping in Wellfleet and Eastham (late 1960s/early 1970s). Saw the erosion you are referring to. May have been my initiation into a fascination with nature, not just weather.

            1. Love that whole area, still do. Drive my wife and kids crazy always needing to go back. 🙂 🙂 An hour and a half ride, when the Marshfield beaches are 2 minutes away, but, I cant help it.

  92. Well …. I kind of thought the 0z runs would be anticlimatic, but now ….. I want to see the surface wind gust forecasts at around the 36 hr mark for eastern Massachusetts.

    I hope we are not starting a last minute trend here towards ferocious backside NW winds immediately behind this storm near the coastline. I’ve kind of been perplexed the last couple of days why the wind projections on the model solutions didnt seem too strong given the projected pressure.

  93. NAM is overdoing snow in Boston, I think. If the storm were to hit right now, yes, we’d get at least 4-6 inches of front-end snow, but the window of opportunity is truly fading away as Charlie alluded to with temps rising. The High is leaving us.

    I said it would hit the 40s in Boston tomorrow. I think I’m wrong to say that, but with an east wind my guess is surface temps in the city and up and down the coast will be roughly equal to the ocean temp, not supportive of accumulating snow unless it snows like crazy and brings the temp down.

  94. I know it is too early to look at the radar. But it seems like most of the action will be west of us and we just get in the dry slot with rai, especially for eastern mass. The snow is moving more N Than NE

  95. starting to be concerned expecially for interior northeast mass that we end up getting a good amount of ice on top of 5-10 inches of snow with sustained winds around 20-25mph with gusts up to 40 wide spread power outages?

  97. At hr 33 on the GFS, can see small little bubble of calm winds under the low on the south shore, literally over Marshfield. But …. on the South coast, there’s gusts to 50mph and just south of the Vineyard, there’s a 60mph contour. During the 36-39 hr period, it looks to project wind gusts of 40-45 mph in all of MA and 50 mph on the Cape.

    Also, looks like the winds north of the storm, earlier in the day, arent too shabby either, even inland.

  100. Boston now included in the winter storm warning.
    Snow falling right now a light pace. Will see if the NWS forecast of 10-14 inches for my area happens in what is being called a 3 part storm. The snow then the mix and rain and then back to snow.

  102. Todd Gutner’s snow map: Cape 1-3″; Coast out to 128 3-6″; West of 128 out to Worcester 6-10″; and northern MA/Worcester hills 10+”.

  107. Here are some current wind observations down in coastal Maryland (in knots)

    Ocean City …. NE at 22, gusting to 38

    Salisbury …. NE at 29, gusting to 44

    Wallops Island … NE at 35, gusting to 49

  108. Its just the opposite here in CT where all the schools are closed. Decision was made last night.
    Enjoy that front end snow up there for those living near and on the I -95 corridor south and east since I don’t think there will be a lot of backlash snow for those areas.

    1. We got the call for framingham last night. All schools closing 2 hrs early. Elementary closing at 1:00. Seems that may put buses on roads at worst of it before changeover. My youngest won’t send her son. Most of the schools in this immediate area are either open or dismissing early

      1. Those weather related choices were some of my favorite corporate world decisions.

        How many times, after say, 4 or 5 inches had fallen and it was snowing like crazy, the office would announce …. “Ok, everyone can leave early now.”

        Um ….. Thanks ????

        1. The businesses seem to be doing that this year. Several I know are told to come I’m early and leave when it gets bad …..exact wording. Huh?

        2. Our schools closed within the last half hour. Now we are in until Thursday June 26th. Tom are your schools closed?

          1. No, nothing on the South Shore is closed and I think thats a good choice.

            I wonder how many schools and other things will be closed tomorrow due to power issues …….

            1. Not sure I agree with us closing. Fine to get there this am and most likely fine to come home. Time will tell.

  110. Will be watching the winds and see how high they gust this afternoon and tonight. I don’t think this is a widespread power outage across SNE but would not be surprised if there are scattered power outages.

  114. By the way, this little followup system over the weekend is coming in at 984 mb on the EURO, southeast of the benchmark. Another deep system. We’re supposed to be headed for the Cape Saturday, so why wouldnt this next system turn into something bigger ? Of course ……. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. TIP

      Whole Food has an awesome sale.

      Double dozen with greens and baby breath for $33.
      Or just 2 doz roses for $25.

      BETTER than the damn florists shops. I picked up a bundle
      last night and they are beautiful.

  116. S N O W I N G
    here in JP. Very lightly.

    Morning.

    Euro gives Boston A good thumping of snow, other guidance not so much. 😀

    Euro is the most aggressive with the next system. 😀

  117. For those looking ahead to the next system. NWS out of Upton, NY. Lets get through this one first
    MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF A
    STRONGER LOW CENTER PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND A WEAKER LOW TO THE
    NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS THE LOW CENTER CLOSEST TO THE COAST AS
    IT PASSES BY…SO WILL NEED TO SEE IF THE OTHER MODELS TREND TOWARDS
    ITS CLOSER/WETTER SOLUTION AND IF THIS COULD BE MORE THAN A LIGHT
    SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.

  118. Light coating here already. Snow picking up a little bit.

    26.8. Don’t like that, but we knew those temps would be on the rise. 😀

    1. Looking at the EURO and the HRRR plus the NAM and you get that easily.

      I guess they are NOT factoring in the GFS ????

      😀

  121. That HRR model is just through 7pm when there could be a few more inches with the backlash snows especially across the interior. Showing around 10 inches for my area with that model.

    1. FYI

      TK said the HRRR was CRAP. I don’t know about that.
      His concern was that yesterday it was showing big Snow totals
      for Atlanta when it was Ice.

      Oh well, just another tool to use. 😀

      1. My forecast for Metro Atlanta for snowfall range was 2-4 inches (given to a friend that lives in Marietta).

          1. Sleet and snow mix after they got their ice. This was a 2-part storm for them, actually started with a swath of plain rain, then went to ice, then the more frozen stuff.

            The short range models were overdoing the snow totals down there.

  124. Looking at the current radar, i know its not really in here yet, but u can almost see the se to e flow pulling warmer air in from the ocean. Rain snow line look to already set up shop along route 24 unless the heavier precip collapses that further south and east.

  125. Don’t let the early arrival of snow fool you into thinking we’re suddenly getting slammed around Boston. Watch the radar trends for now.

  126. at 7 am ……. NJ coastline, MD Coastline all seem to be reporting around 25 knots sustained, gusting to 40. NYC and surrounding area has come up to 15-20 knots, gusting to 30.

  127. That sure is a nice circulation, both on radar and satellite centered around the Georgia / western South Carolina border.

    Looking forward to seeing if and what precip develops north and west of that circulation as the day carries on.

    1. So far, no. May tweak up SLIGHTLY, but if I do it won’t be by much at all.

      There is nothing serious on radar anywhere close to this area – all light to very light – for the next couple hours.

        1. High school 11, middle school 11:30, elementary 12. Should be OK, maybe a bit dicey toward the end.

          Monitoring the bands to the south. Don’t see too much evidence for development of advanced heavier snow at this point.

          More than verifying my forecast, PRIORITY is getting everyone home safely not just in Woburn but all over the region where any classes are being held today.

          I still think Woburn made the right call today.

      1. I did. It brings a stronger low closer to the coast. Its wetter than the other solutions. I rgink it may be an outlier.

        1. It is. But we know for every good forecast the Euro has had this winter, it’s had a not-so-good one.

  131. Temps will continue to warm. Our window of heavy snow is shrinking before the changeover as our start time has been delayed.

  133. Everyone keeps saying the snow has started sooner than thought. I was thinking the opposite. I expected steady snow by 8am according to every forecast. Very light flakes in walpole as of 8am with accumulating snow at least a couple hours away. Not a good sign for those in the battleground between rain and snow. The more time for warming before it really starts snowing the less we will get before the changeover.

  137. Looking at snow reports from the Mid Atlantic. Some of the astronomical forecast totals are just not taking place. They are really going to need the back-side snows to perform to get closer to the #’s posted by some, though it appears NWS may be doing a decent job verifying. I have to look more into that to be sure. Focusing more on this area obviously.

  139. Good morning–snowing very lightly in Milton–roads are just wet and my driveway is sort of dusted. Schools are closed here. The problem is really getting the kids home–we stagger our buses and my school is last; we’ve waited well over an hour for the buses in iffy weather. Today was my day for bus duty so I’m kind of glad. I’ve got biscuits in the oven and a nice pot of coffee so it’s pretty good.

    1. They do the same in Framingham and there is also no parking on main roads so for those kids not bussed the parents have a miserable time finding parking. And to make matters worse, walkers leaving school end up having to go in between cars.

  140. The air doesnt feel snowy or even wintry to me outside. Feels very damp, almost marine-like. The warmer air is invading, already 32 and above most east coastal locations.

    2. There may be some temporary dynamic cooling when heavier precipitation gets in, but it will be limited by a solid push of warm air at 5,000+ feet.

      1. Eric Fisher mentioned that last night and indicated that
        the rain/snow line might wobble back and forth for awhile with the heavier precipitation, but eventually the warmer air aloft will win out and push the rain snow line way North and West.

  141. In the office.
    Had to clear off a Healthy coating of snow.
    26 at home when I left with a wind of 030 to 045.
    Arrived at the office in Roxbury and temp was 30 and wind East.

    Airport wind at 080. Norwood at 030.
    Beverly at 030. Blue Hill at 080

    Not sure it means anything, just an observation.

    Not for nothing, but it is SNOWING pretty good here.
    Vis around a mile or so, perhaps a tad more.

    😀 😀

    1. Yup. Noticed the same. Looks like a “coastal” front is draped in a SW-NE orientation from South of Beverly, West of Downtown, but East of JP and Sw of Milton and East of Norwood. 😀

  144. this might teach my younger brother not to wake me up in the morning to check if his school has not school or not, i told him he had a 2 hour delay hehe

  147. I could be wrong, but I think a BIG thump of snow is coming btwn 10 and noon, even into Boston. Perhaps 3 or 4 inches in a couple hrs. We shall see.

      1. Not disagreeing. If you are reading my comments as a slam on forecasters, you’re misreading it.

        There’s nothing worse than making a forecast and having it not work out. I know this well. 🙂

  151. Hadi you were mentioning that total in Upton, NY on Long Island just reading a special weather statement band producing 2-4 inches an hour of snow with near blizzard conditions in some places. Waiting where I am as the band pivots north and see if it has the same intensity as on Long Island and parts of the CT shoreline.

  152. OK, SNOW getting really serious here.

    I went to MAPQUEST and took out a ruler.

    I used MISSION CHURCH as my visibility reading.

    It is precisely 3,667 feet from my office window.

    I can barely see the Church, so VIS clearly is under a mile
    Probably 3/4 of a mile. When I can’t see the Church at all we’re down
    to 1/2 mile or less.

    So I am reporting 3/4 mile visibility and dropping. 😀 😀

  153. I am in agreement with AceMaster on this one. Snow has started later than expected. Temperature is already above freezing where I am, and you can feel that east wind. Heavier snow could cool things down. We’ll see. I’m not impressed thus far.

    1. Intensity of the snow has not changed here in Walpole. Started light around 8:30 and has continued the same light intensity with no accumulation through 10am.

  154. Editing parts of this blog and adding new info to put together a new blog which I will have posted by 10AM.

    Making a few changes to the forecast for today based on most recent info!

    1. Watching that heavy band of snow pushing north into CT.
      It is snow moderate clip and for the first time I noticed the winds starting to gust a little bit.

  158. Blog is updated.

    The post is not up for debate – questioning my forecast will result in an automatic ban.

    Oh and I’m just kidding. 🙂

    But yes the blog really is updated. 😀

  159. Not much of anything in downtown Hingham, light coating is all we have so far and it seems to have stopped for now temp is 34.5 degrees!

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