A Storm With Its Own Travel Plans

419 Comments

9:24AM

A very interesting set-up, coming out of unseasonable warmth to the threat of significant snow (for some areas) on what is essentially and somewhat arguably the busiest travel day of the year (Wednesday). You’re going to either hear or take part in great analysis over the next 24-36 hours so I’m going to take the streamlined route in the discussion here and expand upon it with you all in the comments.

First, today, another very mild day by November standards, though sun will be limited for a while due to lots of high cloudiness streaming northward, it should shine brighter a little later as clouds thin out. But these clouds will thicken back up tonight in advance of a low pressure area developing along a frontal boundary just offshore. This system will be propelled northeastward rather rapidly. With departing warm and moist air to feed the system, and arriving cold air to set up contrast, we have a short-lived by volatile set-up, complicated further by the fact that its passage by southeastern New England will take place on the eve of Thanksgiving, presenting all kinds of complexities regarding both air and road travel. As for the storm itself, it will be moving very rapidly, arriving precipitation-wise during the morning and midday and departing by around midnight. It’s what happens in that 12+ hour period that is critical. We know that it should start as rain in most areas except probably mix to immediate snow in higher elevations of central MA. And in this area it will remain generally snow, where it is likely that the most will fall, which is over 6 inches of snow. This will likely include the tricky I-90/I-84 area which is elevated, and congested on a dry weekend day outside of the holidays at times. Potential for major traffic nightmare here. It’s also quite likely that the immediate coast and down across southeastern MA, coastal RI, and Cape Cod and the Islands will remain as mostly rain, possibly mixing later in the storm as steadiest precipitation is ready to depart. It’s the whole middle section, from Boston through Metro West down into RI and up into southeastern NH and interior northeastern MA that is the most tricky. The most reliable guidance suggest marginal temperatures for the majority of the event, which means at any given time it can be raining, snowing, or both. A cop out? Not at all. It’s that marginal. We’ll just have to see how the event unfolds. There is the potential for some heavier banding features associated with the storm during its passage which would tilt the balance more toward snow where they set up. So the forecast amounts are highly subject to change in this belt. See below for those amounts…

Once the storm gets out of here, and that will happen fairly rapidly from southwest to northeast in the later evening of Wednesday. By Thanksgiving morning, it’s gone, and that day itself is going to feature a gusty breeze, lots of clouds, intervals of sun, and a few spotty snow showers with some lingering low level moisture, at least through midday.

Friday looks fair, breezy, and cold as high pressure moves in. Saturday will feature increasing clouds as a warm front approaches, and this front may produce a touch of light snow Saturday night (uncertain depending on movement of its associated disturbance and available moisture). For now it looks like a cold front will follow this up later Sunday, allowing Sunday to be milder ahead of the front. Again, timing is a little uncertain this far out. The front may still be in the vicinity Monday which may keep clouds and some threat of precipitation in the region. Plenty of time to look at that.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Limited sun with lots of high clouds morning. More sun with less high clouds this afternoon. Highs in the 60s through midday cooling into the 50s this afternoon. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s from southern NH to Cape Cod. Wind light W.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain develops south to north morning-midday, except mix/snow in highest elevations well west and northwest of Boston. Rain/snow line moves slowly eastward but mix/snow may also develop spontaneously closer to I-95 later in the day. Temperatures cooling through 30s northwest of Boston, from lower 40s into 30s Boston southeastward. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow northwest of Boston, mix or snow immediate Boston area southward to interior RI, mix or rain interior southeastern MA and coastal RI, and mostly rain coastal southeastern MA to Cape Cod, all ending from southwest to northeast by or shortly after midnight. Snow accumulation 6 inches or more in higher elevations central MA into southwestern NH, 3-6 inches most other interior locations west of the I-95 belt but also into interior RI with the potential for spotty higher amounts, 1-3 inches on the east side of the I-95 belt ranging down to little or nothing in coastal locations. Lows upper 20s higher elevations well inland to middle 30s Cape Cod. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Lots of clouds, intervals of sun. Spotty light snow showers through midday. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 35.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Touch of light snow at night? Low 20. High 40.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 50.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Low 35. High 45.

419 thoughts on “A Storm With Its Own Travel Plans”

  1. Thanks TK! Great analysis! So in Wrentham just a couple miles west of 95 I guess I’d be on the edge of that 3-6″ range. Always such a hard spot to forecast.

    1. Since this is comments, I’ll say I get 2 to 3 inches in the hills on the east side of town, and you get 3 to 4 up there in the mountains of the west. 😉

      1. I won’t hold you to it. Actually I think you are high for my area…I think no one gets over 2 in our area (or so I hope…I have to be on the road by 10am Thursday and I have bad BAD OCD with clearing snow so it’s a bad mix for me).

        1. Probably a little less on the pavement than on the grass, because we are coming out of 3 very mild days heading into this, and the first part of the storm will be getting underway in daylight as rain.

          1. Yeah was going to ask about that. I think the past few days plus the storm starting sooner and ending sooner will help limit totals.

  3. So 1-3 for longwood medical area. Sucks bigtime I’ll be here all damn night with a house load coming around noontime Thursday .

  4. KEEP IN MIND there is about a 10 to 20 mile wide swath from just inland to somewhere between I-95 and I-495 that can be moderate to heavy RAIN or moderate to heavy SNOW, or anything in between, for about a 6 hour period Wednesday afternoon/evening. This is not a cover-ass statement. It’s THAT marginal for that long.

    1. Hoping it’s on the cold side of marginal for me. But that’s me just being selfish because I don’t have to travel anywhere, and a fresh few inches will keep the kids occupied while my wife cooks tomorrow…

  6. Thank TK. Many thanks for the excellent write-up and analysis.

    Marginal conditions are brutal.

    We shall see how it all unfolds.

    1. Literally several miles between 3 inches and a foot on that NAM snow map. STILL not as sharp a line as the Great Lakes Super Snow Band. 😉

      1. Indeed. Cutting the totals in half yields more reasonable totals.
        I am most curious to see how it pans out. 😀

  9. Thanks TK.
    Wow that 12z NAM gives my part of CT a foot of snow. My feeling are the same about the NAM it always over cooks things.
    Cut it down by at least half. The 6z GFS is what I expect to fall in the interior.

  12. TK – great writeup and thank you.

    I hate to add to the questions and know it is early. Current plan is for us to head to Uxbridge….last minute as kids here are sick and Uxbridge won’t come to us for good reason 🙂

    It seems to me Uxbridge is in the higher accumulation area. Are you seeing 6-9 in that area? If so, should it be gone in good time to allow for road clearing? Thank you.

    1. I’d lean closer to 6 and since this a well advertised storm arriving the day before Thanksgiving, the crews are going to be ready. I don’t think there will be many travel problems Thursday outside of 2 things: 1) Volume because of people that could not leave Tuesday and avoided Wednesday. 2) Icy spots in the morning from a quick drop of temp to a little below freezing for a few hours. Those would be confined to mainly untreated walks/driveways. Roads should hold enough residual warmth underneath to be just wet, drying out during the day.

      1. Thank you for taking the time to give such an indepth response. Icy patches are some of our worries as Mac cannot take the chance of going out if there is any ice so your addition of that was most important for us to know!

  13. the 06Z run of the BTV 4km WRF model has a MIX in Boston for a huge hunk
    of the storm. Total storm qpf 1.5-2.0 inches.

    Waiting on 12Z run of this. 😀

    1. I’m not sure they even have a set time, so much, especially now. They have shifts and update discussions and forecasts generally regularly, but I’d just check them frequently because they will issue things “as-needed” with the storm threat / holiday week.

  16. Between 3 and 4:30 this afternoon. Although I have see winter weather alerts go up just before noon sometimes but usually its in that 3 to 4:30 timeframe in afternoon.

    1. Yeah, that run had the torch going near the coast. Lots of numbers set to bust to high on this. It is going to be too warm on the ground and too warm in the air.

    1. I think so …. on Instant Weather Maps ……. My eyes are old, so take it for what its worth …… I’m not looking at the zoomed in picture. 🙂

  19. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 3m3 minutes ago
    More later…this is as tough as its gets forecasting…rain/snow line to be near or along coast #wcvb

  20. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 1m1 minute ago
    High forecast bust risk along coast and I 95 with this storm..heavy wet snow possible #wcvb

  21. What’s this?

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 5m5 minutes ago
    [1030a] A warm-air intrusion aloft could result in areas to mix with sleet; again, impacts to snow-totals

  22. I feel bad for some of these guys. THESE are the storms that attribute to the Met “how do they keep their job when they are wrong all the time?” reputation.

    1. Nice comment WW – and I sure agree. If only everyone could just read all of the posts from the knowledgeable folks on this blog alone, they would understand how difficult it is.

  24. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 5m5 minutes ago
    Rain/snow line super critical and tough to pin down #wcvb

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 2m2 minutes ago Boston, MA
    12z GFS staying the course. Just a touch east of Nantucket, snowy afternoon/evening for many.

  25. I’m sorry, but a winter storm watch that includes Boston on a “marginal” event, when its 60F the two prior days of the event, the ocean temp is 50F, no cold high to the north is highly questionable …….

    If the NWS was truly convinced at snow at the coastline, couldn’t they at least start with a winter weather advisory and IF …. a couple of hrs into the event, its snowing like crazy in Boston, then you could bump up straight to a warning …..

    Visually, when the public sees winter storm watches covering that MUCH area …. well, for the NWS’ sake, I hope it verifies …..

    I’d have winter weather advisories up for 495 westward, southward and northwestward out to Worcester, I’d have a special weather statement up from 495 to 128 advising that when precip falls hard enough, it could fall as heavy snow and my watches would be for the high terrain west of Worcester out to the Berkshires and up into SW NH. Then, if a colder scenario started playing out, I’d be adjusting accordingly.

    1. Don’t quite agree with that. This one is SO tough to call.
      That’s why the watch is up. It “could” very well come down later.
      We’ll see.

    2. They don’t have a choice. The stakes are too high because of the day of the year. It’s a forecaster’s nightmare.

  26. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 3m3 minutes ago
    Last update for now….rain/snow line still not locked in… stakes are high…somewhere near I 95 #wcvb

  27. And all of a sudden it’s trending warmer, I knew this was gonna happen, from what I see I’ll stick to Boston under 1 inch, Worcester 6 inches, 3 inches right in the middle point in Framingham, and essentially nothing Boston to Providence south and east towards the coast 🙂

  28. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 5m5 minutes ago Boston, MA
    Still thinking peak totals will be higher elevations of Worcester Co. & Berkshires, plus western side of coastal front around Metro West

    1. Lol he’s seeing trends warming, you can tell he’s sad tweeting that, he doesn’t have a kick or jump in his wording

    2. I’d have to ask Eric why he thinks the coastal front is only making it to Metro West and ……does he think its going to be like 38F at Logan and 25F on the other side of the front ? Arent we talking about low to mid 30s even west of the front ???

  29. Interesting from Taunton NWS office:

    …HOWEVER STRONG
    FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF ANDATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED – 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
    INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2″ PER HOUR.

      1. It’s for hype and recording and tv ratings and snow euthusiast, it might be the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen lol, most I’ve talked to agree

    2. Now when “Storm Center” has their guy (or gal) in Worcester showing us the snow (and bending down to show us the consistency of course) they can say scary things like “Monster storm Cato continue to rage through Worcester…”

      1. I looked back at some of the posts about this. You had me cracking up OS. You were so upset it was raining at your house and the snow was piling up just to your south and west 😀

        1. Oh I remember now.
          Then it changed back to snow at my house
          and a mile down the road it was still Raining at Hadi’s house. 😀
          Changed there shortly thereafter.

          We got 5 inches out of it. Better than nothing.

    1. What are we talking for temps? Guessing this means even if I get more snow than I want I don’t need to clean the roof.

  37. This one is tough to forecast, yes. But, much more difficult for the interior (which is broadly defined) than the coast. Common sense is important here. Perhaps more important than the models. This is NOT March when the ocean temps are cold. With: a. the marginal nature of the temps (and at the coast they may not even make it to freezing until the storm is long gone); and b. the northeast wind, this is NOT a set-up conducive to accumulating snow at or even near the coast really. I think you have to be at least 5-10 miles inland to have measurable snow out of this one.

    My thinking is that near Charlie and the Providence area will have more snow out of this one than Boston, because of their relative positioning away from the coast. I think the back-end snow may accumulate in these areas because the temps will dip to or below freezing before they do in Boston itself. When I say accumulate I do not mean large amounts. Perhaps a couple of inches. Boston itself maybe an inch, but I’m thinking less than that, and it’ll be glop.

    1. Ugh Ugh triple Ugh. For once I want that Charlie hole to hold true. Son has to drive Boston to Providence home Wed night and then around 4:30 Thurs am Providence to Boston back to work. I’ll will be a wreck.

    2. I agree tough, very tough for the reasons you stated.
      I “think” the wind may have more of a Northerly component
      “just” back from the coastline.

      We shall see.

  40. That rain snow line is going to be key where it sets up shop.
    This storm system which is affecting taking shape in the eastern Gulf of Mexico had a tornado warning earlier near the Orlando, FL area.

  41. Here is the 12Z CMC precipitation type map

    21Z Wed or 4PM

    http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014112512/I_nw_r1_EST_2014112512_033.png

    02Z Thurs or 9PM Wed.

    http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014112512/I_nw_r1_EST_2014112512_038.png

    This model shows a thumping, however, a Heavy MIX along the immediate coast.
    Not clear until I can see other maps, IF this mix is Rain and Snow, OR sleet OR Sleet and snow or Sleet and rain.

  42. Just upgraded the winter storm watches to warnings for northern parts of fairfield and new haven counties in CT. NWS seems confident my area is going to get 6 inches or more of wet snow.

  43. I really wonder where the EURO comes in with the 12Z run.
    “should” be interesting.

    Unfreaking believable close call.

    LOVE IT.

  45. One thing I think we can pretty much count on is Boston being out of the drought zone after this upcoming storm. TK, am I correct in saying that?

  47. Just had a client tell me she and her husband said they just heard mostly rain, lol they live in Bridgewater, everyone is talking about storm 🙂

  50. Thanks TK! Last year we had a lot of rain the day before Thanksgiving also. My son went to Plimoth Plantation and is going again tomorrow and looks like it will be a similar experience. Bummer!

  51. Finally some boundary layer talk. Thank you Bernie! I forget which model it was last week but I remember one printing snow in Chesapeake Va and I was like WTF….

  53. New Euro to me looks quite a bit weaker and warmer. It’s a good snow track, but the precip intensity isn’t there to cool us down. Freezing line never appears to reach Boston, just hangs around Worcester. This baby is looking warm all the way. There will certainly be a plowable snow inland, but Boston should only come in on either side of the 1″ mark.

  54. Talking to someone who usually loves the SREF. Basically says don’t bother with it right now.

    I’m going to hold course and lean to the warmer side as I did yesterday. May update numbers later.

      1. Possibly because of the marginal temps. In not discounting the possibility yet.

        I did just talk to another colleague who thinks basically no snow inside 495.

    1. Love the loop !!

      Remember a couple weeks back when that intense 850 mb low went through the SE and there was record snow in South Carolina (I forget the city now). It just seems like that is kind of missing this go around.

  56. Well, at least the dewpoints are in the upper 20s now and Mt. Washington is down to 23.

    Of course, it is 55F to 60F out.

  57. TK’s comment above not withstanding, latest 15Z SREF just coming in
    Keeps the SNOW THEME going. Will post a map shortly.

  58. I’m beginning to believe and hear this will not be a big deal for the big cities on east coast, funny what 1 day does

    2. Thanks Old Salty. SREF was going when picking up the tornado potential this summer. Lets see how it does hear.
      GFS and EURO giving my area around 6 inches of snow. I hope that sleet rain line doesn’t make it up my way from the shoreline.

  62. Charlie TWC had 12-18 inches of snow for the Worcester area last night. I said that is not going to happen.
    5-8 inches right now looks good for the interior 1-3 for areas at near the coast but closer to the 1 than the 3.

    1. These guys are real GEMS!!!!
      Winter weather Advisory for HEAVY SNOW!!!

      …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM
      EST THURSDAY…

      THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY.

      * LOCATIONS…INCLUDE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS
      WELL AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND.

      * HAZARD TYPES…SNOW.

      PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

      A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS…BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE WOULD RESULT IN SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WHEN
      TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING…MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY
      DEVELOP.

      1. Interesting, in my county (western Norfolk), NWS snowmap says 6-8″ for me yet I am in a winter weather advisory

        1. Also makes zero sense for northern Bristol county to not be under any advisory at all. I can see some towns in that area getting just as much snow as some in nearby Norfolk county. The advisories dont match the snowmap.

          1. I’m thinking you are looking an an older map.
            IF not then the NWS is OUT OF THEIR MINDS!)(@#&!@&#*!&@*&#

  65. I think the weather advisory is overdone for Boston. However, it’s probably a good thing because of the impact that almost any kind of weather (including cold rain) will have on a day like tomorrow. I’m reducing my forecast of less than an inch in Boston to zero. Maybe a few flakes, but nothing will stick. I never had any faith in any of the forecasts for snow. Not a good set-up, especially in November. And, I should add the coming weeks look unfavorable for snow, too. Depressing for a snow person like me, but I’m also a realist.

    1. Perhaps, BUT it is CLEARLY displaying Boundary Layer and/or Sleet/mixing
      along the coast. Much more so than on other runs.
      HOWEVER, it has gone bonkers with Inland Snow totals.

    1. Overdone, indeed. However, NAM is a decent short-term model. the fact that it sees mostly a coastal mix/rain is an indicator of what to expect, I believe.

    4. The newest run isn’t always the correct one. This run pushes everything back way too far. The western edge of the precip wont even come close to that depiction.

  70. Obviously NWS out of Taunton isn’t going with the NAM since they upgraded Tolland and Windham counties in CT to a winter storm warning going for 6-8 inches those areas.

  71. It’s looking more and more that Boston does NOT get into the serious action.
    I don’t like the looks of the NAM. It looks more and more like the GFS.
    We shall see.

    1. Once the GFS picked up on the storm, it has been so steady. I can’t ignore it and i think by Thursday morning everyone will be saying how well the GFS (regular) handled this situation and will leave us questioning all other models, including the euro.

      1. I wouldn’t be surprised. We’ll know really soon.
        Watch it RAIN ALL the way back to Worcester just like
        TOM originally predicted and I told him Worcester would
        get a foot give or take. 😆 😆 😆

        we shall see.

  72. Unless there is a surprise your near or at the coast this is looking like a Minor snowfall if any snow happens at all. Interior different story looking like a Moderate snowfall.
    I remember the last time it snowed the day before Thanksgiving back in 2005 Boston area had very little snow where I was along with the rest of interior SNE had several inches of snw.

      1. INDEED! Imagine an Arctic High parked to our North.
        Oh well, we take it as it comes. It’s not even Winter yet. 😀

        1. Its a good sign we’re at least getting storms to come up here and be in relatively good positions. With our luck, that will change right when the cold air gets here!

  75. Ch 7’s map is totally contradictory to NWS warnings and advisories, and Ch 5….well, their “hour-by-hour” map is useless

  76. Just think Eric fisher tweeted yesterday to get your plows ready, and I doubt you will need it anywhere inside 495 or at least 128. He tweeted to early by the looks of it, time will tell 🙂

    1. Just a reminder to you: people do live outside of the 495 belt, and will need plows. And those outside of 495 even get the Boston broadcast channels on their televisions, even using the ole’ rabbit ears!

      I realize that is not a commonly understood fact for some who live inside of 495, and especially 128!

      🙂

      3. My point is I don’t think that’s what he was meaning, we know that, he was repetitious on his tweeting about Boston, but yes outside 495 is the far flung suburbs of Boston, I guess 🙂

  77. 12Z FIM just in.

    Surface in good position

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014112512/130/3hap_sfc_f036.png

    850MB temperatures and 925 MB temperatures look Good, HOWEVER, surface temperatures BLOW.

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014112512/130/temp_2m_f036.png

    Nice Northerly component to the Wind.

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014112512/130/wind_10m_f036.png

    Total precip

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014112512/130/totp_24h_f048.png

    Just TOO early in the season.

  79. im sorry but honestly , i do not feel sorry for you guys inside 128 this could be an ok set up for my area to see some good snows,which reminds me i gotta go putaway the lawn mower that my brother left out…..

  80. Bouchard cut back to basically nothing/ maybe a coating in Boston, 1-3 128, 3-6 495, nothing south and east of Quincy to Providence.

  81. Logan 4PM Obs

    57 Degrees with a dewpoint of 28. I wonder how much and how fast it cools tonight
    IF AT ALL????

    1. Just took at the current obs up in Southern Quebec (St. Lawrence Valley) and temps are still in the low to mid 40s. A little further west and north (100-150 miles) and temps are in the low 30s. It’s not till you get up to the James Bay area where temps are cold (for us…not them) with readings in the low 20s.

  83. 18Z GFS looking WARM so far. At 7AM tomorrow 850 mb 0C line is through Albany, Extreme Southern VT and Central NH into Maine. Great news for snow haters and travelers.

  86. With this GFS run, forget about the surface temp, not that it isn’t important, but
    it’s ABOVE FREEZING up to and past Boston THROUGHOUT MOST of the event.

  89. PUT A FORK IN IT!!!!!!!!!! 👿 😈 😆 😆 😆

    GFS snow map. SEE YA!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014112518&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=042

    ZOOMED IN

    http://i.imgur.com/ZoHHPY8.png

    Comes too close plus the Southern Stream Jet just injects TOO MUCH WARM AIR
    at higher levels. It is DOOMED for snow.

    Should Have SHUT the BLEEP UP yesteday. Why would model runs hold 24 hours later. Is that too much to ask? Apparently so!!! 😆 😆 😆

    Oh well, next snow threat AFTER CHRISTMAS sometime, perhaps NOT till after NEW YEARS. Enjoy!

    2. Not necessarily OS !

      Much as I have been stubborn to stay with my ideas, dont give up so quickly on yours.

      Thats the first run withma low track so much further west than its been. Thats why the run is so mild.

      Doesnt mean that track is going to be correct either.

      1. I know, but I can feel it. It’s down the tubes, plus the 700Mb temperatures will wreck it anyway, regardless.

        Oh well, there hopefully will be others.

        1. Regardless of how this one ends up, there’s all of January and February. I think that …… anything inside of 495 from now through late December is always gravy !!

  90. Our CBS station in CT has named this storm Winter Storm Ariana since 6 inches or more of snow is forecasted for most of the state. This station has been naming storms since the early 70s.

      1. Sure. I named it Sky Fire. There is a Sky Fire 2 that I can post up too. And I can also post the other 3 full zoom out shots I took.

  93. will post a new map later tonight/tomorrow morning… those weather models i hope were flukes because they do not even give northeast mass more than 3 inches

    1. Because of the Warming at 10,000 feet, I think at the very least accumulations
      will be cut way down due to SLEET, if not plain rain.

  95. 18z NAM is WARM. One of my colleagues thinks here in Woburn the only snow we will see is at the tail end, otherwise all rain/sleet.

  97. We are both surprised how hard the NWS is still hitting this, snow-wise, as close to the coast as they are.

  99. 48f and 26DP in worcester. I’m gonna be watching that like a hawk tonight.

    Need to do a clear skies dance.

        1. I’m not gonna sleep tonight anyway. May as well watch the damn thermometer. Weather watching is an AFFLICTION I say. Been that way since I can remember being aware.

  102. Someone needs to do a well visit on O.S. if he doesn’t turn up by 7:00pm with some whacky model cooked up in some college met. dorm somewhere.

    There’s no way he’s giving up yet. Especially since it’s the 18z which we’ve all trashed since the start of this blog.

  103. the weather service put out a statement that they are waiting for tonights oz models to come in. they think its a fluke run

    1. so i will do the same, I do have a new snow map but will not make it public on my blog till later on tonight. I have a bad feeling my original thoughts were correct. lol GOD DAM IF I WAS CORRECT THE FIRST TIME lol

    2. Everything is trending warmer as we get closer to the event which is not really a surprise. I guess it’s a whole flock of flukes! 😉

      1. Do you think boston stays all rain or do they get some snow that sticks, curious to see future runs if the trend continues.

    1. well you always think that, you look at the charlie model, which says warm/rain more than 90% of the time 😛

    2. Especially for our area Charlie, I dont think the model trends matters. The concensus could return to right over the benchmark and our towns would be mostly rain or all rain. Way too much ocean influence, combined with the fact that its a mild airmass to begin with.

      1. yeah, it’s perfectly clear here. 45.4 now.

        Will have shaved off 3 degrees in 1.5 hrs. Hoping it continues.

        If clouds come in, I could see it warming up from trapped heat from the past couple of days. Crossing fingers

  106. The NWS makes me laugh. I am in Sutton and under a winter storm warning. In the warning dialogue, they call for 6-10 inches of snow. In their forecast, it says, “Rain and snow…snow accumulation less than one inch.” Then I look at the snowfall map and it has me in the 8-10 range. Good grief!

      1. Oh, and I love their “Chance that snowfall will be greater than maps.” There is a 100% chance that I will have more than 4 inches, but only a 77% chance that I will have more than 6 inches. How the hell do they arrive at those numbers? I feel badly for the people who actually BELIEVE this stuff!

      1. It is 700 feet at its highest. I live on a hill, and there times when the bottom of the hill is raining and we are snowing. It’s rare, but really cool when it does.

        1. 700 ft …. That should help you out a bit tomorrow, I’d think. You and Retrac have some elevation to help out. At least some mid storm snow. Good luck !!

      1. Boy, that looks like it wants to crank.
        Are we going to end up with MORE intensification that originally
        thought. I’ll be all over this model right to the end. We shall see.

        I don’t want false hope, but this looks more encouraging

      2. Look at that subtle little system over western Iowa. Perhaps, as we’ve gotten even closer to this event …. I wonder if it is helping to sharpen the flow along the east coast just a slight bit more and we’re starting to see that tonight with some closer tracks ????

  108. I still cannot get over that NWS snowmap and for that matter, ch. 4’s snow-map ….

    Reason … Did anyone see Harvey at all this evening ? He had a map whose only focus was predicting the temps tomorrow.

    Around 7am, it projected about 42 in Boston, upper 30s between Boston and Worcester and I’m pretty sure Worcester was 36F.

    Fast forward 8 hrs later and with heavier precip, the column cooling, etc …. only Worcester was 32F. I think Logan had cooled to 36F or 37F and most every other town was 33F or 34F.

    Now certainly, it can snow and it can snow hard at those temps and accumulate. But, to those amounts ? 8-10 in a good chunk of interior Massachusetts, during the daytime, coming off a warm spell ?

    Perhaps if the Sears Tower from Chicago were standing in interior New England, the top of it would have those amounts.

  109. No O.S. this is you.

    http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2F1.bp.blogspot.com%2F-_raIqVQIZwk%2FUMAkUUjH-MI%2FAAAAAAAABbQ%2F4G2umWI8epU%2Fs1600%2Ftumblr_mduu68ZFFE1rl0gz1o2_1280.jpg&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pbandawesome.com%2F2012%2F12%2Fchristmas-special-mania-12-rudolph-red.html&h=800&w=1280&tbnid=ZaXl6y4-3ENzMM%3A&zoom=1&docid=ZaE1QV8TKqIkUM&ei=WBZ1VN3rCsXOsQSQu4DoDQ&tbm=isch&client=safari&ved=0CDQQMygBMAE&iact=rc&uact=3&dur=980&page=1&start=0&ndsp=9

  110. This is interesting from Matt Noyes

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 2h2 hours ago
    As always, city of Boston will depend on wind direction. Enough northerly component and we get it 6. Northeast, more like 2.

  111. From Pete..,

    “”There is another.” (Obi Wan Kenobi) Thanksgiving day, with cold temperatures all around, a weak weather system will ripple through. Light snow will be off and on through the day, possibly accumulating to a coating to as much as an inch areawide. How funny would it be that the city of Boston gets more snow from this little ditty versus the big, ol’ storm tomorrow? Stranger things have happended.”

    1. Yes I just was reading that. I don’t think they have a clue as to what’s going to happen let alone when.

      1. I believe his last line…have seen that many times. Wouldn’t be surprised if this small ripple gives more snow to some people than the big one.

  112. Just tossing this out there. And before I do I have no problem at all with Eric and he puts out a great blog. But is he a jump the gun kinda guy and sticks with it. I do believe so . You all know I love Harvey but how he handled this storm I believe is the way it should be done by all of them .

    1. It seems to me that each of our mets has many strengths and, as is the case with all of us, some weaknesses. We are very lucky IMHO with new and old mets in this area and with the addition of Eric we got luckier

    2. The one break I’d allow Eric is this ….. I think he’s only back to forecasting locally after having been away for a while and I think that counts for something. Harvey and Barry, in my opinion, you can tell the decades of local experience they have and I wonder if Eric just needs a few years back locally to go through some events. Listening to Harvey the last few days has been so much fun, because he uses words like … “I’m incorporating the mildness into my thinking”, etc. He’s incorporating that local experience and blending it with what the models are saying.

      2. I might add Pete B. to that list as well. You can see it in his latest snowfall map. Its more realistic, through experience, of what usually happens in late November in eastern Massachusetts.

        1. What’s he saying for boston . Well I decided I’ll drive into Boston tomorrow just in case we need to stay cause if I don’t drive in than we will stay.

          1. Boston is shaded green and is called wet …. ending as snow. No snow amts called for in his green shaded area.

  114. Very positive NAO, very strong warm signals for at least the first 10 days of December, OVERALL.

    2. My son will be happy. He’s got quite a Christmas light landing strip planned here. If we get enough snow tomorrow, it’ll screw him up for the weekend. We’ll need the melt as least so he can get them up properly.

  116. As frustrating as the weatherweenie social media sites can be, man can they be funny to read…

    “I’m quietly following surface temperatures and noticing they are all 5 degrees lower than guidance forecasted” … Ah so that is the reason they have a forecast of up to 3 inches of snow including Cape Cod and the Islands? Makes sense…

    1. It actually is a bit cooler than modeled at this hour. Maybe not 5 degrees cooler but still cooler. Curious to see how low it goes

  117. So is this an actual nor’easter? I think that term is used for every rain and snowstorm now regardless of intensity.

  118. TK, I see similar very strong warm signals through mid December. In fact, the cold air does a vanishing act across virtually the entire lower 48. I must say I’m not feeling it in terms of a wintry winter, and have not felt it since perusing the long-term Euro charts about a month ago. I realize it’s early, but this one has the feel of 97-98 or 98-99 (I can’t remember which year it was), which also started out in December on the warm and rather wet side. There was a brief cold spell in January in 98 or 99 (I remember it sleeting while the temps at the surface were stuck at 10F), but the rest of the winter was balmy and rather gray and overcast. Yuck. I think we’re due for that kind of winter.

    1. 1997-98 = 25.6″
      1998-99 = 36.4″
      1999-00 = 24.9″

      3 very sad winters in a row for snow lovers indeed. 🙁

  119. I would definitely agree with TK that we turn up the heat for the first couple weeks of December. I’m not convinced it stays that way though; these patterns tend to repeat themselves, and if this current pattern reestablishes itself heading into later December and January, the whole East Coast is gonna see plenty of snow this winter.

    Not from this storm though. This is an inland special. Boston may not even get that inch.

  123. I went panel by panel, squinting, and the differences are so slight. I mean, maybe it’s like 10 miles more SE. I don’t know.

      1. Yeah, I thought it looked colder on the run but my God it’s so subtle. Tells you just how close this is going to be. Especially for people who are at/near 495.

  124. So how to make the call to travel to Western MA (between exit 2-3) Wednesday morning or wait till Thursday morning?
    I already lost the idea to head out tonight (-;

  125. Be very wary of that Weatherbell map. It’s basically useless in this case. Those maps assume a constant 10:1 snow-liquid ratio, and it counts sleet, which the NAM shows a lot of, as snow, so it accumulates it at a 10:1 ratio also. The 0z run was definitely colder than 18z, but that’s a poor representation. The Instant Weather Maps graphic is better.

    1. OK, I didn’t know what algorithm it uses.

      Instantmaps uses the Kuchera Method

      it takes temperature (surface and aloft) into account, and allows for the ratio to vary in space and time. We refer to this method as the “AF Method” on our website. AF stands for Air Force, since this method is based on a method used by them (also known as the Kuchera method). In a nutshell, here is how snowfall is computed via this method… Where the model forecasts snow: 1) Find the maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in degrees K (MaxT). 2) If MaxT is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RAT) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MaxT). 3) If MaxT is less than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RAT) is 12.0 + (271.16-MaxT).

  129. my thermometer is reading 38 degrees, i made a few maps that i be sharing in a bit, finishing touches and i thought those 18z models were sort of a fluke. of course its a bit less but not by much… thank god. lol

  130. Peeking back at Nemo …

    Actual snow in a good part of Massachusetts : 24-30 inches.

    Looking back at our comments, NAM snow expectations just before the storm : 40-50 inches.

    An exact multiplier of .6

    This, during a MUCH colder airmass then there will be tomorrow.

    Therefore, I’d take the NAM snow amounts and multiply by about .3

    So all of that 12-15 under that theory would translate to about 4 inches of cement.

  135. I don’t think we see a flake down here in na Wrentham area. I could be wrong but just a hunch, looks to me like a very wet day and evening for anyone inside 128, looks like around an inch of rain to me

  136. Harvey Leonard and Dr. Judah Cohen will be presenting their thoughts for the Winter 2014-15 tonight at 11 on Ch. 5.

    The WBZ AccuWeather team (Barry, Danielle and Eric) will give their thoughts as well on Saturday at 7:30 on Ch. 4.

  140. WELL I FINALLY GOT AN ANSWER FROM ECMFW AS TO WHY THEIR MODEL CAN’T PREDICT THE TIME OF DAY. HERE IT IS WORD FOR WORD WITH ONLY MY NAME REMOVED.

    Dear xxxxx,

    Thank you for your feedback. We are carefully monitoring the forecast every day and we have seen some problematic forecasts during the last year over North America. However, we do currently not suspect them to be related to the model upgrade last year. The problem in many of the cases have been related to snow cover, which leads to large uncertainties for the surface temperature.

    About the forecast for this week you mentioned, I suppose your main interest is the cyclone on Wednesday-Thursday. One should be aware that a forecast 5-6 days in advance is often uncertain and one should not only use the high-resolution forecast but also the ensemble forecast to account for the uncertainties.

    Best Regards,
    Petra.

    on behalf of Linus Magnusson, Analyst on duty

  142. David just said with warm air belie and above Boston should stay mostly rain with either very little or no snow at Logan . All other stations still seem to have boston picking up a costing to a couple of inches at tail end but slot also saying mix early for Boston . Hopefully I’ll be home tonight.

      1. Hi John. I’ll be going to work a bit later.

        RE: How much in our area. Right now sure looks like little
        to nothing. (I’ll keep watching in case there is a shift to the East, but doesn’t look like it)

        Storm kept creeping closer and closer to the coast with each run. IF were the dead of Winter, this would have been
        a bust for the coast. TOO TIGHT.

  144. 6z nam is showing more sleet than the GFS O.S.

    GFS not showing a changeover for BOS for a looooooonnnnngggg time.

    I’m wondering how much sleet is going to screw me out here. I could see the snow out here being anywhere from 3″ to 12″. Dreading hearing that first ping of ice off the windows. That’s when you know you’re f”d.

    1. You “may” just avoid sleet.

      I’m about to check the HRRR. Sleet would be caused by warm air at
      this level. Usually it’s around the 850MB level. Not so this time, it’s 700MB
      or around 10,000 feet or so.

  145. Well …..

    1) I am impressed with how MUCH precip is down the coastline.

    2) the dewpoints and Mt. Washington’s temp (14F, I think) make me think that rain will briefly turn to snow and might come down hard in the 128 to 495 belt for a bit late morning before transitioning back to a mix or even straight rain by mid afternoon.

    3) its not only the ocean temp ….. Look at the air temps at the buoys. 47F …… 45F to 50F air that probably wont wet bulb as much, ready to come ashore once the wind turns NE.

    I could see Logan do this …

    6am 46F. 8am light rain, 41F. 11am rain, 38F. 2pm rain, 42F, NE wind

    Further inland, Framingham perhaps 🙂

    6am 40F. 8am light rain, 37F. 11am snow, 35F. 2pm rain, 37F.

  146. Hmmm

    I can’t see 700 mb temperatures with Euro. I can see 850 MB temperatures
    and they look great. Sub freezing the whole way. No warmer than -2 to -4 C.

    There would be significantly MORE snow around IF IF IF IF the Euro were to verify.

    NAM and GFS say Screw you all, I’m move the SNOW to ALberta.

  147. Latest HRRR predicts 700MB warming just about to Boston by 2PM

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014112608/full/temp_700_f11.png

    By 6PM it envelops ALL of CT, RI and MOST of MA, except the Berkshires.
    Ain’t getting snow this way. TONS of SLEET inland and perhaps right to the coast.

    At the same time the 700MB layer is warm, 850MB still cold.

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014112608/full/temp_850_f15.png

    as is 925 MB layer inland

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014112608/full/temp_925_f15.png

    What a bummer

    1. With 700 MB layer warming doesn’t matter anymore. STICK A FORK IN IT.
      Snow accumulations even way inland will be cut WAY down by massive SLEET.

    2. Sleet just plain sucks. And it screws with you for hours. You sit there, nose pressed against the glass hoping, no, praying it’s not happening and that cold will save the day but NO…ping…ping….ping…..then the radar dries up..

      1. Now I’m LMAO!!!!!

        At least the ground will whiten where you are.
        I’m not sure we even see a coating at the ass end.

  150. In a way, I sincerely mean that this solution is disappointing.

    I really would have liked the benchmark track and the cooler temps aloft, because thats what I’ve been basing my thoughts off of, still thinking that late November’s overall mild climatology would have limited big snows in the eastern half of Massachusetts ……… with this milder trend the last 12 hrs ……. It appears were not going to get to try to see that scenario in full.

    1. Yes. And I was Wrong NOT because of those scenarios, but because the
      Freakin storm SNUCK INSIDE!!! This would have been a BUMMER in the dead of Winter with Snow to sleet and probably rain coastal plain.

      Oh well, it’s New England. Anything can happen. But I don’t see this thing
      taking a right turn or even meandering to the East. It’s over.

      Snow lovers inland WILL be disappointed with this one, although they will
      have a WHITE THANKSGIVING.

    1. Dry as my Burnt toast!!
      Nothing. Nada. Zilch

      Holding at 44,4 here. Would take some heavy precip to cool the column for snow
      before the 700MB BLAST FURNACE moves in.

          1. You “should” start as snow. Please let us know.
            I, for one, would be most curious.

            Did you see that report for W. Hartford?
            Stating as sleet. OUCH!!!

            1. Yeah, They’ll flip over though I’m betting.

              You know me, I’ll take a damn picture of the first snowflake.

  155. Does this make sense???

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 13s13 seconds ago
    Connecticut: RT @ryanhanrahan: Precipitation in west hartford has begun as very light sleet. @NWSBoston @bobmaxon

    Is 700MB warming approaching MUCH faster than forecast? OR is this 850 MB
    warmth as Cold is slow to move in????

    I wonder???

    1. From the NWS office in Taunton:

      ALERT
      FLUB WARNING!

      MAJOR FLUB IN THE FORECAST. MAJOR WARMING ALOFT
      WILL CAUSE MASSIVE FLUBBING THIS AFTERNOON!
      TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!!!!

  157. Spiked UP to 44.6 as the daylight begins. Should drop down when the rain starts.

    I’m hoping precip gets HEAVY enough BEFORE blast furnace aloft arrives to flip
    over to snow for awhile.

    Probably won’t happen, but a GOOD REASON to KEEP looking out the WINDOW. 😆

    1. Harvey and Judah Cohen kind of hinted at that last night on the 11pm news although their maps had the snowy situations all the way up to central and southern New England and the warmer rainy situations happening in Maine, far eastern Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Judah Cohen believes this could be the trend going forward (although I have to admit I was half awake watching so I could be wrong on the details).

      1. I think he was emphasizing temperatures moreso but they hinted at above normal snow for Boston because of the contrast.

        It’s odd because he usually does not talk about precipitation, just temperature. 🙂

  159. Time to Make the Donuts (shower and shave then head to the office)
    Will check in a bit later.

    Enjoy the BUSTORAMA!!!

    1. I don’t think I’m going to consider this a bustorama. Just have to tweak for warmer air above mid storm.

  160. Just drove into work …

    WBZ 10:30am radio …..

    Danielle Niles …

    1-3 near the coast, 3-6 btwn 495 and 128.

  162. Watched the BZ webcast ….

    One of the map’s BZ is using in its weathercast ………. shows Boston’s temp never getting below 40F during 98% of the storm. It actually drops below 40F (to about 36F) as the last of the precip pulls away. The radar’s simulated precip shows all green over Boston …. and then BZ’s snowmap comes in and there’s 1-3 over the city.

    1. I’m 100% certain you are an excellent teacher but you could very well have gone into meteorology full-on and done just as well. You have the ability to reason synoptic scenarios above and beyond the average.

    2. I hate these kind of inconsistencies. I see it all the time with NWS.

      I go absolutely Bonkers watching movies and some TV shows and drive my wife nuts.

      For example, we watched a Christmas movies last week supposedly set in Kansas. Yet the scenary looked like near the mountains in Colorado. I have
      No tolerance for that crap.

      I once watched a Crappy tornado movie on Sci Fi. It was set in Oklahoma
      and they showed 10,000 foot mountains in the back ground. INSANITY.

      Then there is the FAKE snow! The supposed cold and can’t see the breathes.
      Then there’s Winter scenes with the trees in full canpoy. etc etc etc

      Drives me INSANE!!!!

  164. Timing is on track. Amounts posted above look OK, but may down-tweak them slightly due to warmer air aloft caused by a low track about 10 miles further west (yes that makes a huge difference) on the next update which I hope to have out later this morning.

    Today’s agenda takes me to the bakery for Mom, taking Mom for a short follow up doc appointment this morning, and then a trip to my old school this afternoon. 🙂

    Been helping out pre-holiday so it’s easy for my mom and dad who still host us all! But today I get a break because my brother and sister in law are coming down to prepare all the food for tomorrow. 🙂 I’m very thankful for my wonderful family.

  165. and yet again my area gets screwed over by the storm. I bet many of those warnings become advisories pretty soon in eastern sections

    1. It’s not getting screwed over by a storm.

      It’s getting screwed over by too many forecasters that were treating the atmosphere as if it were February. 🙂

      NWS goes down in flames on this one.

  166. It is starting to snow where I am in CT now. Of note it was suppose to start as rain here and it did not. For a small state its going to be an interesting day where the southeast part of the state could get an inch of rain and the northwest part of the state could have 6 plus inches of wet snow.

  167. Jessica…

    I approved your message but not sure what WordPress just did with it.

    If you chanced leaving for that part of MA this morning you’d be alright for over half of the trip, but the last part of it could get dicey as it will indeed be snowing, probably moderately, as you got closer to your destination. If you left right now, you’d do ok, but you’d have to slow down toward the end.

    Tomorrow morning, things would be cleared and treated out there and you’d have no weather-related trouble other than a few passing snow showers which we could update you on first thing in the morning.

    1. Hmm found your message. It was from last night though WP did not give it to me until this morning. Naughty WordPress!

  170. In my humble meteorological opinion:

    This thing has only the slimmest chance to be a maximum potential snow producer. A few days ago when I was giving this thing no chance of being that close to the coast (and yes that was the WRONG call initially on my part – a mistake I’ve made many times) the thought was we wouldn’t have enough precipitation intensity. Once it become apparent that not only was the Euro not completely out to lunch but it did have SOME clue, climatology applied clearly stated that with the magnitude of warm air in place, even though it was going to get colder from the west and north, and from above during the storm, there would be too much warm air influence from the nearby ocean and possibly at some level aloft (though the magnitude of that will be missed by many since a matter of a few miles makes a big difference). We have never had a good high pressure area and supply of cold air for this one. The real cold is tied up behind that other disturbance! That was always going to be a factor in this but was ignored. Coastal front? Maybe, but not between maritime polar and Arctic air, like we often see in the Winter. This is between modified maritime polar and modified continental polar air. That’s not going to do it.

    The #’s I posted yesterday were 75% influenced by the above, and 25% influenced by the amount of short range guidance going cold/snowy. I should have given it more of a 90%/10% spread, but I had to leave that surprise-factor in place, given the high stakes forecast based on the timing.

    Working on a new blog now. This one should be shorter than the last couple. 🙂

  171. This one had bust written all over it. And yes the trend this winter will be for numerous coastal busts, I believe, with the inland – to our southwest (interior Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia) – getting much more snow than we do. Could this change? Of course, but I don’t see it changing in the short term with the parameters they way they are (positive NAO, among other things, cold Highs settling in to our west and not north and northwest thus far this November).

  172. In the office. Started to RAIN while driving in.

    Here’s something from Matt Noyes

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 9m9 minutes ago
    RT @TollandKev: @MattNoyesNECN Started as sleet..flipped to all snow Tolland, CT..grass and mulch whitening up

  174. I’m still hearing from local mets up to a fee inches in the city but the time it’s over with sleet causing bad driving conditions by 3.

      2. See as ace said after me mets still calling for a mess in the city. Tk what’s your call and what for longwood medical area. Nothing, somthing, all rain . On call tonight??

        1. Mostly rain there. May mix at times. I can’t see it flipping there long enough to accumulate. The very end of the storm may bring a brief coating but to be honest with you, the grounds should be warm enough for it to melt off.

          I say there is a fair chance you do not have to go in.

    2. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 24s25 seconds ago Boston, MA
      If you live inside 95, your best shot for snow is at the end of the storm (tonight) with a slushy inch or two.

      1. This is where i think Eric has some growing pains as was discussed last night. Other longer term mets have much more experience forecasting locally in NE and can pick up on the subtle nuances of this area when it comes to snow. Backside snows very rarely amount to anything, and especially in this case where this storm will be moving along.

  176. No surprise, starting as rain here in Wrentham, with a temperature of 39.5F or so. Might get a slushy inch or two on the back side late this evening here, but that’s it. Maybe some sleet too when it comes down hard enough this afternoon. Pretty gross day though.

      1. Oh for sure I understand that. There’s that pesky warm layer
        at 700MB and of course we have the boundary layer issue as well.

        I am MOST disappointed in that 700MB layer.

        Does this always happen? Of course it was much easier to
        penetrate this far North without true cold firmly in place,
        so that didn’t help for sure.

        Is it also a function of the storm not really wrapping up
        fully? Just Allowing that conveyor belt of warmth from the
        Gulf and SE states?

        Tx

  181. Backside snows are almost never a big producer here unless you have a very slow-moving or cut off system, an insane banding structure on a rapidly intensifying storm, or a norlun trough that is a big producer.

    In a progressive storm like this? Forget it.

    BLOG UPDATED!

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