Thursday Forecast

63 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 12-16)…
High pressure dominates today and it warms up nicely over the interior while the coast is modified by a sea breeze, and sunshine will be in full control as it was yesterday. A broad low pressure trough will pass through from west to east Friday through Monday, but it still appears that rainfall will be limited to 2 frontal passages, the first late Friday and Friday night, and the second Saturday night through the early hours of Sunday. This will leave much of the weekend rain-free. Lingering cold air aloft on the trough’s back side may still cause a few very light showers but at least some clouds on Monday. The air mass change will be quite evident between Saturday (which will be 70+ in most areas), and Sunday-Monday, which will struggle to reach 60 in many areas.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 60s coast, 70s to lower 80s interior, but will likely cool back somewhat within a few miles of the coast in the afternoon. Wind light S with coastal sea breezes developing.
TONIGHT: Clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows in the 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers especially late day and night. Highs middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Shower threat returns at night. Lows in the 50s. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s, coolest South Coast and Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Lows middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs upper 50s to lower 60s.
MONDAY: Partly sunny and breezy. Isolated showers. Lows in the 40s. Highs middle 50s to lower 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 17-21)…
Fair May 17. Uncertain timing but rain risk somewhere in the May 18-19 period. Fair weather May 20-21. Temperatures slowly moderating.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 22-26)…
Fair May 22. Shower risk mid period. Fair late in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

63 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Thanks Tk . Need that rain to hold off between 5-8 tomorrow night . I need to get this job done that I started last Saturday afternoon . Lot of debris removal to haul off to dump.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Another Beauty.

    Started the day with 60 Degrees at 7AM.

  6. Can see it in the hazy skies and on the visible satellite, the smoke from the western Canada fires is overhead.

    Speaking of things on fire, Barrow, AK remained above 32F all night. I’m pretty sure their average high is in the high teens to low 20s. A very warm arctic winter has the Beaufort sea with unusual amounts of open sea for May. And now, this early warm surge

    I’m convinced this, in part, is why the models are struggling with consistency in the mid and long range. Yesterday’s 12z GFS and today’s 00z GFS are so different in the mid and long range. They just can’t agree on that anomalous western Canada ridge, its strength and its location which have are having downstream implications in the central and eastern U.S.

      1. Too bad it wasn’t purple haze as it would be Hendricks honoring Prince from the great stage in the sky. 😀

  8. Boston buoy starts the day out as follows. It really drops off from the sun heated afternoon readings. Yesterday it peak at 54 Degrees.

    Station 44013 (LLNR 420) – BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA Image indicating link to RSS feed of recent meteorological observations for station 44013
    Boston Approach Lighted Buoy BF NOAA 44013

    Conditions at 44013 as of
    (7:50 am EDT)
    1150 GMT on 05/12/2016:

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 48.7 °F

    Stellwagen:

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 47.5 °F

    These 2 readings are what the Water Temperatures really are.

    When the morning readings are up there, then we know we are in good shape.

      1. I want to compare my house to Logan. I think I reach at least 75 at my house. Will check at lunch. 😀

        I don’t give a flying horse shit about Logan!!

        That place sucks

        1. It’s convenient as far as plane departure and arrival. My friend calls it a pit.

          1. For me, Logan is damn inconvenient.
            It is clear across town with the worst
            traffic situation imaginable. Try catching
            a 6 or 7PM flight and getting to that airport.

            I can’t take Storrow Drive, else I’d miss the flight.
            We have to take a sneaky route through the back streets of JP and Roxbury and end up on the SE Expressway heading North for 1 mile to the
            airport exit. The ONLY way it can be done.

            And return flights? Holy Crap Batman, try getting home if the flight arrives at the wrong time.

            Frankly the Boston International airport should be somewhere outside of the city, like
            Norwood or Woburn or Burlington or the like.

            Never going to happen of course, but I vent.

            Hey, the bottom line is we are lucky to have a 1st class international airport.

            My biggest complaint is that is NOT NOT NOT
            the place to keep the City weather records.

              1. Right, that will get me far. 😀 😀 😀
                As you stated yesterday, we’re stuck with it.

            2. Odd that with all the airports my sister in law flies to and from, she rates Logan among the best She doesn’t have to travel to and from of course except she uses Logan express which she also loves. Marta in Atlanta is a plus but she makes shure to live on the line

              1. We don’t fly frequently, but I have several friends that do and have picked them up, etc. – and everything seems to run smoothly there for us pretty much each time.

  9. The euro shows a bigger threat for Thunderstorms Saturday night than it does
    for tomorrow or tomorrow evening.

    1. It will be interesting to see how much sun is received Sat morning into mid afternoon.

      I think the SSW flow is going to stabilize lathe providence to Boston corridor pretty well, but interior areas may be a different story.

      1. SPC has marginal Severe extending up into Extreme Western MA
        and CT, otherwise general thunderstorm threat ending just about
        at the coast or a tad West of the East coast.

  11. All systems go on the upcoming pattern change. As much as folks probably think it already changed, it hasn’t quite. This is still blocking. But transition begins in under 24 hours.

    1. Next week looks a little down, the back up. Still looking like the end of next week we might get some sustained spring. I think

    1. Logan 63 at 11AM with EAST wind.

      Blue Hill 68
      Norwood 70
      Westfield 71
      Taunton 73
      Marshfield 61 (EAST WIND)

    1. Thank you. My wife and I are AOK as we have had the measles. Children are AOK because they have been vaccinated.

      Interesting agenda for our European visitor.

      1. JPD – I had a blood test a few years back b/c dr told my mom I had German measles twice and never measles. She insisted he was wrong. Blood test confirmed one had indeed been measles.

        And a very interesting agenda. Visitor certainly took in the sights. Wrentham outlets surprised me a bit.

  14. Misc.

    Left my house around 1:15 and it was 69.8 in JP while it’s been stuck at 63
    at the tip of the City sticking out into the Harbor, otherwise known as Logan
    Airport.

    2PM
    76 – Norwood
    78 – Westfield.
    81 – Taunton

    2. Glad I bumped the highs to lower 80s some interior areas today. 🙂

  16. Quick peak of the 12z GFS and NAM for instability tomorrow and Saturday and none being shown.
    Will see what 12z run of EURO says.

    1. Euro for Saturday night some parameters indicate thunderstorms, but at best marginal for severe.

  17. 2015-2016 Snow contest…

    Boston total: 36.1 inches / Winner: Matt
    Worcester total: 47.2 inches / Winner: Mel
    Providence total: 28.7 inches / Winner: Joshua
    Hartford total: 26.9 inches / Winner: JimmyJames

    Congrats to the winners!

      1. If you noticed, I waited until after the date of the latest measurable snow at Boston to post these. 😀

  18. Even with the Wind EAST at 11.5 mph, Logan’s temperature has moved up
    to 65 as of 3PM. That must be representative of the warmer sea surface temps with
    the wind blowing the warmer waters in towards short.

    Boston Buoy: Water Temperature (WTMP): 53.4 °F

    Usually, “about” 10 Degrees higher than the ocean temperature is about as
    well as one could expect. Logan managed 1.6 degrees more. Pretty good.
    Perhaps there is water warmer than 53.4 from 16 miles out, into Logan.

  19. JPDave I was not excited about the thunderstorm potential for Friday or Saturday. With that said would not be surprised if there are rumbles of thunder each of those days.

  20. I don’t want this to become discussion but just adding to that police chase: police officers have been suspended, and expecting to be fired. This is sad I agree, police are what keep us safe. But there’s always a couple bad ones.

    What a beautiful day!!!!! I hope everyone is enjoying it.

    1. Let’s just leave that subject alone here and you can discuss it on the appropriate news forums.

    2. THEN DONT POST IT AND IF YOU DO GET YOUR STORY STRAIGHT. they are on leave pending investigation. That is standard procedure. I am not saying they didn’t do anything wrong. However, in this country we do not convict In the court of public opinion.

      Can you please point me to the place where you commended the off duty sheriffs deputy for his heroism the other night. I’m curious to see if you just feed on the negative.

    3. I don’t mean to be rude, I don’t mean to insult, I don’t want to make this a discussion….yada, yada, yada….you are like a friggin broken record.

  22. Was 72 on the dot here in JP when I arrived home at 5:30 PM.

    Still 72 here and still 65 at the airport. It’s “almost” 1 Degree per mile difference. 😀

  23. Logan high temp (only) 66F today.

    If this were a month ago, we would have all been totally ecstatic.

    Fine with me…HHH will be here soon enough!

  24. Flew to Minnesota (daughter’s graduation) this morning. Very strong front caused quite a bit of turbulence. My guess is the front was centered near Cleveland or so. It’s cool and cloudy here. Looks like Boston last week. Apparently, frost warnings are up in nearby counties, and the highs on graduation day will be in the upper 40s. Am I bringing these Minnesotans coastal NE weather from last week? It would appear so.

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