Wednesday Forecast

93 Comments

6:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 13-17)…
Overall ideas are the same, but some fine-tuning has resulted in adding a slightly better risk of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast for Thursday and lessening the risk for Friday, as it looks like the support in the atmosphere will be greatest through Thursday evening and less so thereafter. Adding a few showers/storms to Saturday’s forecast but far from a wash-out threat. Updated forecast…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. More humid. Highs 77-82 Cape Cod, 83-88 other shores, 88-93 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy and hazy. Slight risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms especially south and west of Boston overnight. Humid. Lows 64-72, warmest urban areas. Wind light SW.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible during the day. Scattered or clustered showers/thunderstorms possible from west to east evening or night. Highs 76-83 Cape Cod and immediate shores, 84-91 elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Lows 66-73. Highs 77-85 Cape Cod and immediate shores, 86-94 elsewhere.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 65-73. Highs 82-90.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 62-70. Highs 84-92.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 18-22)…
Moderate to high humidity at times, warm to hot temperatures, and a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms in the area as the overall pattern is more typical of mid summer.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 23-27)…
Limited shower/thunderstorm chances early in the period may increase a bit later. Temperatures near to above normal.

93 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    In prepar4ation for today, re-installed an AC.

    Hope we don’t need it.

    Now let’s see IF we get any rain tomorrow. he he he.
    I’ll believe it when I see it. Surely some to the West, but again, is there any left
    for the coast.

    Model qpf for Boston leaves much to be desired. 😀

  2. Thank you, TK. Leaving the High Desert of Central Oregon with daily 70s highs and 50s lows partly sunny for the heat of SNE today 🙂

  4. Good morning. Wunder says temp 64 and DP 68 at Humarock. I have discovered S/SW wind covers both sides of house and goes tnru house. It is lovely. And it is wind, not breeze this am. It is in high teens and enough to make small waves on river.

  5. Chris Lambert on Ch. 7 has dps falling considerably over the weekend to very comfy levels starting as early as late Friday, but I gather that you disagree on that scenario TK?

    1. Dew point forecast…
      Today: Middle 60s.
      Thursday: Lower 70s.
      Friday: Middle 60s.
      Saturday: Upper 60s.
      Sunday: Upper 50s.

  6. 6Z 4KM NAM, shows most precipitation falls in Eastern sections tomorrow night from about 01 or 11 PM to about 2 or 3AM. Not saying that is correct, just reporting what
    that particular model shows. 😀

      1. I would if I had Brady’s resources, but I don’t know if they
        will or not. It is a long shot to win, should they decide to
        take that route.

        I guess you had a really enjoyable trip.

        At least your flight home was uneventful, so hopefully your wife
        was OK with it.

        1. We had a great trip. Seemed very hot there although the temp wasn’t over 90. We had been to Jamaica the last 4 years and seemed cooler there. It was beautiful in Punta Cana.

          My wife said the flight back yesterday wasn’t her favorite. I thought it was much smoother than the way down. But she hates flying no matter what. They brought us over the city on the west side and then had us do a u turn and come in from the North. Kind of strange. I haven’t landed on that runway before. It was 3 hours and 39 minutes. We got in at 610 and were out customs by 640 just before a huge plane lannded from Tokyo :). Love Jet Blue!

          1. I love Jet Blue as well. Used to take it to Vegas often. Out last flight was to Dallas on American, which I would NOT recommend to anyone.

            Re: your landing.
            Returning from Vegas, we almost always came in
            on that Northern aproach. We’d come over Nahant,Revere Beach, Winthrop and in.

            We often drive up rt. 1 and I can tell you those planes are lined up on that approach.

            I have also come in on the approach from the East or SouthEast coming in all the way over water.

            And also the Southern (SW?) approach, coming in over Southie.

            1. I have done the southwest and east often. Was neat coming in on one I haven’t before.

              We didn’t have TV until the last hour but that was ok. Over the water is out of the coverage area after a certain distance. We took US Air last year and it was horrible.

  9. Yup. It’s bull shit sorry!!!!!! As much as I think he is getting screwed he just needs to serve it and end this embarrassing distraction . He can go to the Supreme Court but I think he knows the gig is up , serve and end it . When he comes back I’m willing to bet he will play with so much emotion and a burning fire he will be unstoppable .

  10. Interesting…
    The Comparison between the 4KM NAM and the regular NAM is startling!

    Huge differences.

    Western areas of SNE and adjacent Eastern NY “may” be under the gun for
    possible tornadoes late tomorrow. Some of the parameters are impressive, but locations are totally different between these 2 models. Sref also has this threat.

    I don’t know about trusting the 18Z runs, but hopefully the 0Z runs will begin
    to fine tune this possible threat.

    No matter what, this does not currently appear to be a threat for Eastern Sections, in fact, it would not surprise me at all IF Eastern sections get totally and completely
    SKUNKED! As if that has never happened before. 😀

    JJ, please pay attention. You “may” be under the gun.

        1. And we will miss our WHW eyes out in that area. I think Mark is in a ddifferent part of the state.

  13. I think that the Charlie Hole will be in effect tomorrow into Friday for Boston.
    IF we get any rain, it will be an insignificant amount like a tenth or less.
    I hope Boston gets a slug of rain, but I fear not.

      1. I was wondering the same. I would think so. But then the question is could they rule and take him out toward end of season or playoffs. I have not don’t any reading on this yet

      1. Car says 91 here. Wunder says 89 with DP still at 70. Still have the natural AC with mid teen wind but off land is of course Warmer than off ocean.

        1. Was just home where my home thermometer was
          reading 86.

          STILL no observations from the NWS. Last one was
          10AM.

          1. There is NOTHING available in ANY state.
            They have a system-wide problem, yet one can
            access the observation website, it just has OLD
            data is all.

                1. I use the NWS RSS feeds to get notification of watches/warnings. But for the obs, I much prefer the MesoWest site, as it gets the 5 minute obs from all of the ASOS stations.

  16. I have a weather app that says it is 86.8 in Boston, but I have no idea where
    that obs is. Wundermap shows 90 for Boston.

  17. SAK, many thanks again.

    There is some nice stuff on that site.

    I like the map so one can see all of the observations at one time/place, sort of like
    the Wundermap only more accurate. 😀

  18. We have 91 in North Reading at 2:30 p.m. No clue on dewpoint. Despite the central air still being on the fritz, the house is still fairly cool downstairs. Sleeping upstairs could be a challenge tonight. May have to sleep in the basement room!

    1. Interesting that the text site shows wind as SW, yet the map wind barb shows
      wind due South. If the wind is truly South, then that temperature will slowly
      descend into the mid 80s. Now, that would be nice.

  20. Re Brady:
    The second circuit (the court that just rejected the ‘en banc” hearing) would have to first issue a stay of the suspension so Brady’s lawyers would have time to file an appeal with SCOTUS. IF that happened, his lawyers would have to file the briefs. Even then, SCOTUS wouldn’t have to hear it. It would buy some time, but my guess is SCOTUS wouldn’t even here it. If the second circuit does NOT issue a stay, Brady’s done. FWIW, I don’t think they’ll issue a stay.
    If a stay isn’t issued, he’ll have to take the 4 games. I’m of the opinion this has gone on long enough. Man it up, take the 4 games, and lets see if Jimmy G is any good. Worst they go is 2-2, they’ll still win the east and go to the playoffs.

    1. Agree that the worst they would go is 2-2 and could likely go 3-1 given the schedule, however, I disagree about maning up. In fact, I have grown tired
      of hearing that comment. He should fight this thing to the bitter end. When there is no recourse, then and only then, take the suspension.

      Just my humble opinion.

      1. As usual you said it for me. To me manning up is when you fight for what is right. The one caveat is if it would take him out at end of season or during playoffs. Even then it is his decision. He had always given his all for the team. I respected him enough from the start to know he didn’t do anything wrong. I will respect any decision he makes.

        That said great information blackstone. Thank you very much. You saved me hunting for facts and gave me more beach time. 🙂

    2. Just to clarify, I think he should try and get the stay, but like I said, I don’t think the second circuit will issue one.
      And SCOTUS not being in session has nothing to do with anything. It will take several months to get the briefs ready and file everything, then a few more months to see whether or not they hear it. Again, the stay is key.

  21. NWS has a network outage preventing hourly obs from transmitting. Will be up soon.

  22. Ok all,
    IF I have done this correctly, I have a link to the temperature/dew point map for
    which I posted a link above. This map is awesome and I would like to thank SAK
    again for providing.

    Please check this out and you might like to bookmark it.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=8&scroll_zoom=true&center=42.14915080911932,-73.4271240234375&basemap=ESRI%20Topographic&boundaries=false,false,false&hazard=true&hazard_type=severe&hazard_opacity=60&obs=true&obs_type=weather&elements=temp,dew,wind&obs_popup=false&obs_density=1

    1. I love using that source.

      BTW regarding a wind barb showing a S wind. It may have only been right at the ob was taken, with the wind being SW more of the time.

      1. True, because a few minutes later it was back to SSW, which still
        helps a little but not as much as due South, but certainly better
        than SW and WSW. 😀

        1. Always keep in mind, obs are momentary and representative of the condition at that moment. Anything can fluctuate, especially wind. Having a higher temp at Boston would be indicative of a more persistent southwesterly wind rather than a southerly one. One of the many many little things that a meteorologist must recognize and remember. 🙂

          1. To be sure and well understood. It was wishful thinking on my part that perhaps the wind
            had actually shifted to the South. Not the case.

              1. Wind has been SSW all day but switched to S here for a bit during my nap hour which was around 2:30. I have found it is important to have a nap when you spend the day doing nothing 😉

  24. There is some shear around tomorrow. Should we get any decent convection, we’ll have to be on the lookout for any possible spin ups. However, the main threat should be
    well to the West of the Boston area, mostly the berks and Eastern NY. But there is decent helicity even here, but probably not enough instability to worry about.

    Models still showing very little precipitation for Eastern sections.

    Time will tell.

    1. I’m not concerned about tornadoes tomorrow as I think any showers/storms will be brief and weak during the day.

      We’ll have to watch for a cluster or broken to solid line of storms coming eastward during the evening into early at night (somewhere in the 6PM-11PM window). Early odds favor a little north versus south, but there is opportunity for all as it stands now.

  25. Hi everyone…. It is quite warm down here in Virginia where I am vacationing. Heat advisory up tomorrow with heat index values in mid 100s.
    I see things may get a little interesting in parts of the region tomorrow.

    1. I cannot figure how to donate using my iPad. I will try again tomorrow. God bless your wife and little Gracie-Jo

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