Saturday Forecast

102 Comments

9:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 6-10)…
Today’s storm threat: We have a pre-frontal trough, which in layman’s terms is a line of lower pressure and lift, like a front, moving slowly south southeastward into MA from northern New England, which carries some showers on it as of mid morning. These will fade with time and this line, as it continues to drop southward through MA toward CT and RI, will be the focal point for new showers and thunderstorms by the middle of the day and certainly the first half of the afternoon. The cloudiness with the initial showers may limit development north of the Mass Pike as this trough moves through that region, especially since there hasn’t been much, if any, sunshine to heat the lower atmosphere and destabilize it. The storms that do fire up in southern MA and moving into CT and RI may be quite strong, and locally severe. I still believe this will be the exception rather than the rule even in that region, and that the worst of the weather will be confined to rather isolated locations. But since it is a summer weekend, if you are in this area pay very close attention to changing weather today. But what about the actual cold front? Yes that still has to come through as well and will be moving along later this afternoon and early evening, but will only have the ability to initiate isolated to scattered storms. The best support for this may stay up across Maine but still cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm anywhere else as this front passes. By dusk, all activity will have dissipated or moved away. After the bit of action around today, we go back into the quiet pattern of dominant high pressure Sunday into the middle of next week.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers mid to late morning from southern NH and northern MA into east central MA with a remote risk of an isolated heavier thunderstorm in eastern MA. Redeveloping showers/thunderstorms most likely in a broken line near the Mass Pike then moving southeastward through southern MA, CT, and RI during the early to mid afternoon hours. Any storms may be strong to locally severe. Elsewhere just an additional isolated shower or thunderstorm possible through early evening. Humid. Highs 78-85 coast, coolest Cape Cod, and 86-92 elsewhere, warmest Merrimack Valley and southwestern NH. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Less humid. Lows 62-70, warmest in urban areas. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny, except some cloudiness in southern NH and eastern MA late day. Highs 80-88. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-68. Wind light NW to N.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-86. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 58-67, coolest interior valleys and warmest urban areas. Highs 80-88, coolest coast.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-68. Highs 82-90, coolest coast.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 11-15)…
Current timing brings a weak front through the region August 11 with only a remote shower/thunderstorm risk then another stretch of fair weather is expected with temperatures generally near to above normal. Perseid Meteor Shower occurs early to mid period so will be keeping an eye on sky conditions for late-night viewing.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 16-20)…
Lower confidence forecast at this point but still looks fairly dry though temperatures may temporarily trend cooler.

102 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    1. About what was expected. There are diurnal gaps in activity and Boston sits in that gap today I believe. The new stuff would have to fire very quickly to clip the city, but I think it may be too late.

      1. You know it’s too late. 😀

        There has been ZERO sun here and I mean ZERO.
        Heavily overcast all morning long.

        FIGURES

        I just hope we get some rain from this initial line.

        1. My lightning display shows ZERO activity anywhere in
          New England at the moment. I don’t know if that is correct or there is a malfunction.

  6. Thanks TK. Dave I’m curious as to how your set up goes for your weather station as I’m thinking of getting one.

    1. Been working on it. Pain the ass to set up, but well worth it I hope.
      I just set up the internet bridge and it is now syncing with the AcuRite
      servers.

      I have to run some errands. Will actually install sensors when I get home, most
      likely after lunch. I may miss my first chance at rain. We shall see.

  7. 13Z HRRR radar reflectivity loop

    m2.ezgif.com/tmp/ezgif-3851583579.gif

    Dramatically shows that the main convection is well to the South of Boston.

  8. Cell out by Worcester shows tops at 12,000 feet. I know that is not super high, but
    shouldn’t it be high enough for some lightning?

  11. Thank you TK

    Any sun we had this am was covered about an hour ago. Temps are just 77 but air is thick. Nice breeze from SW

  15. Pouring here in Sudbury! The sound of the rain is really nice – it has been raining the last 20 mins. or so. I will try to send it to JP Dave and anyone else who needs it. Ahhh, it’s starting to lighten up. Hope it reaches more areas.

  16. The transition is underway. The city of Boston’s shot at rain comes between about now and 1PM. After that, I’m not sure much happens around the metro. Look for stuff to the southwest and south, and also up in Maine. Anywhere else, isolated.

    1. I see you right away. You are the handsome one. Since I don’t know. What SAK looks like, I’ll guess he is one of the other men 😉

    2. Front row, 2nd and 3rd from the right???

      This photo brings back very bad memories.

      I had much to do with THAT building, from IT, admin and facilities.

      This photo was taken in the Atrium. You should see what it takes to maintain
      that place.

      1. Well, this year’s conference is at a different location. 😉

        The girl in the front row on the right that is facing the other way is between SAK and myself. SAK in blue, I, as my friend says, am the “man in black”. 😉

  20. Back home. More rain here, than in West Roxbury, a few miles away. Not puddles when I left, some decent puddles upon my return. Puddle estimate 1 or 2 tenths. I wonder
    what we actually got. Damn wish my rain gauge was set up in time. Another hour or so. 😀

  22. Thank you, TK.

    Pathetic amount of rain. Probably just enough to make the vegetation angry. It’s being teased with a meager supply of its most important nutrient. So much for the NECN forecast late last night of 1.13 inches in Boston. I took that one with several tablespoons of salt, particularly their call for thunderstorms in Boston. Just ain’t happening.

    1. That wasn’t really a NECN forecast. It was a model forecast. And that is a perfect example of why I don’t approve of TV stations showing model output. 🙂

  25. TK, point taken on NECN. It was indeed a model projection. Believe me (gosh, now I sound like Trump), make no mistake (oh no, now I sound like Obama), I don’t rely on the model projections. It’s just that I had hoped that we’d get a little more rain. Perhaps the sunshine and humid air will fire up the atmosphere in Boston and produce a surprise downpour?

  26. Vicki, it’s very interesting you knew the weather-related meaning of the word “close.” I look back fondly on those days in rural Pennsylvania. I was the `liberal’ city kid from a place (Brookline) as foreign to those people as any faraway place. I’m still a politically fairly `liberal’ person, but I have enormous respect for the gritty, self-reliant, conservative, family-oriented folk in rural Pennsylvania.

  27. I think my ideas from last night, about eastern Mass. being “split” by most of the convection, are proving to have some merit. Very little in the way of severe weather anywhere, but Maine has had a smattering of showers/storms, and there’s a few downpours to our southwest in CT and even more so down in northern NJ. But mostly just lighter showers so far in western MA, struggling mightily to push east. Still a risk anywhere though, just not a widespread or particularly impactful event.

  28. Well my AcuRite weather station is set up. Certainly NOT optimal for wind speed and direction, but there are so many trees around here, can’t be helped. Open enough for
    reasonably accurate rainfall.

    To my surprise, the unit DOES have a dew point sensor after all and it is reading 71.
    I was just out installing this thing and it sure feels like it to me. It is a SAUNA
    out there. I wonder how we Don’t get some rain.

    Thank you to Sue and Blackstone for you help with my decision.

    Question: Who knows how to get the web app working properly?

    I have the internet bridge connecting and the server accepted my Mac address
    and information for the bridge, yet I am NOT receiving and info on the app.

    many thanks

    1. Ok, I have the PC display working fine, now to get the smart phone App to work.

      Dew point here is now 72.

      Cell just popped up rt 93 in the vicinity of Andover. 😀

      2. I can go to the same web sit on my phone as on the PC and that
        works perfectly. But that is not the smart phone app.

    1. Isolated cells really. And less development near the trough than I expected. And no CGs anywhere except one cell in eastern NH and one in southeastern CT as of 3:30PM.

      Mid level lapse rates are crap except way up in Maine.

  30. As the storm threat diminishes in the next few hours, I’ll be heading to Newburyport MA where there is a fireworks display tonight for Yankee Homecoming. There is also one in Burlington MA in case anyone wants to venture out to either of these.

    Still have to watch for isolated storms until about sunset but I think once again they will be the exception by a large margin. Still might be a cluster of them in southeastern CT and RI before the end of the day, but I’ve been less than impressed so far with development down there.

  32. Special Weather Statement on storm west of me. Have not seen any warnings so far here in SNE today.

    1. JJ, I could be wrong, but I think I see some rotation on that sucker just
      to the West of Waterbury. Is that you?

  33. I’m afraid I’m going to have to move my weather sensor device.

    It’s mounted on a deck post on top of wood flooring over an asphalt roof.
    Even though it is about 3 feet up from the asphalt, it is catching some radiation
    from it. Current temperature reading is 94. Although it is nasty out, I do not think
    it is 94. More like 88-90. dp reading is 71 which looks good.

  35. Dave the storm just went by and the rain was coming down in sheets and had some gusty winds for about five minutes along with lightning and thunder. Now the sun is out.

  39. Temp jumped to 91 here in Wrentham with the clearing. Pretty uncomfortable with the humidity. Watching the cluster of storms between Springfield and Worcester.

    1. Use radar scope. Wbt radar and storn velocity display. You will see grenn echos beside red onrs. Please excuse typos I am mobile picking up pizzs

  42. Sky is threatening in Boston, but of course no rain. We can’t buy rain. Looks like the storms near Vicki and points southwest of the city are going to impact the Canton to Providence corridor. I expect some action there soon.

    1. Of course not. WHY would it rain here. Makes no sense IF it rained. 😀

      So frustrating when you can SEE the storm clouds BOTH to the NORTH
      and to the SOUTH!()8@#*(&*!@^#&*(^!@*#&^!&*@#^&*!%@^#%^!@#%^

  44. Its pouring here! Lighting bolt must have been right over me. I’m in Thr center of Whitinsville at the grocery store and it coming down in buckets. I’m sure my dogs are freaking out at home.

  45. Storm was so so but fun

    It was followed by a double rainbow. Mac is wishing his youngest a happy birthday (today) and welcoming Rilyn Mac and with the storm giving nana a smile.

  46. Temp went from 84 to 72.5 and in no more than 30 and probably closer to 15 minutes we had 1.06. Of course most of it ran off but it is something. Winds were up in the low high teens and 20s.

  47. Dave do you have the radar scope you pay yearly for? I don’t see the options you named. And it doesn’t drill down to Sutton which someone like me appreciates. I did choose the expert mode and then laughed out loud.

    I’m using the app on my iPad. Any suggestions are welcome. I sure don’t mind spending 9.99/yr if that is what is best but want to make sure I can see my location.

    2. Let me look. I believe it is a ONE TIME $9.99,

      That’s what I paid anyway. It better not be a subscription!!!!

      You don’t get a location like Sutton. Choose the radar you want.

      Select the radar up top. For example
      Boston KBOX
      Then down the buttom, there is a little gear wheel on the right.
      Click on that. That is settings
      Make sure Cities is ON.

      Then you can zoom the display in any area you like.

      It has a limit. I was able to zoom and see Oxford, Webster, Douglas and Whitinsville. I’m sure from there you know exactly where Sutton is.

      Works for me. 😀 good luck. You can try even if there is no
      storm in the area.

      1. Thanks Dave. I had found settings and have a choice of some radars but they are limited because I didn’t pay. I copied and saved your instructions. I do know where Sutton is but so like seeing my location…….I’m very literal 😉

        1. Hi Vicki, in Radarscope, if you have your location services on, there’s a little icon shaped like an arrow in the app, if you tap that it will give you your exact location. A little bullseye will pop up.

          And it is not a subscription, just the one payment!

  48. Very little thunder or lightening here and brief heavy rain. Sky was bright during half of it. Was kind of strange. Also saw clouds going south and then nearby those some going north. Got a quick .15.

    1. The clouds were doing weird things here too. And the wind was whipping the tree tops in multiple directions.

  49. Had a storm here in Wrentham, looked like the worst of it went pretty much right over me, but it wasn’t nearly severe despite the warnings. Winds gusted to maybe 35mph towards the onset, not nearly as strong as the gust front a couple weeks ago. Rain gauge said 0.32″ rain; seemed low to me, found a lot of debris in the gauge so not sure how accurate that number is, might be higher. Not even a whole lot of thunder/lightning though. Rainbow afterwards 🙂

    1. Sounds like ours. I certainly would not classify it as needing a warning. Although we seemed to have the lions share of rain….so far

    2. Those storms were carrying a downburst potential, hence the warnings. I think they were needed. Glad at least the result was below severe criteria.

  50. Lots of debris on the roads.
    I got 0.63″ of water in about 10 minutes. Church Street in town was flooded in a couple spots. Almost impassible in one stretch.

  51. Son in said our lawn is saturated for the first time perhaps since we moved here but certainly in a couple of months. So water did some good

  52. Even a hard rain helps. The run off into the ponds helps too. Most of these ponds you see around here charge the wells for the towns.

    1. It sure does help. Just not as much as it sounds as if it should. If that makes sense. At this point I’ll take anything. Even wiggles

  53. I just read up. I had not seen that you saw rotation in system approaching us. Is that what caused tree tops to go one way in wind and then the other. Thank heavens it didn’t materialize

    Have we heard from JJ.

  54. Hi Vicki…. Had a thunderstorm roll through here just prior to 5pm. Sheets of rain gusty winds thunder and lightning came with it.

  55. well, back home after 2 weeks doing Marine and coastal ecological research, did my independant my research was on the affect of abiotic factors on the population density of mummichugs in folgers marsh and the general biodiversity of fish in folgers mash and mill creek inlet. It was alot of fun, got alot of new connections, including the TA asking me to join his research team for his PHD. Got connections with the fish and wild life and Noaa fisheries. Two major groups .

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