Thursday Forecast

82 Comments

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
This morning, a bunch of rodents in various parts of the country appear out of holes, or are pulled out of boxes by humans dressed in funny hats and coats, and make predictions about the end of winter, or maybe a script is read which is just for fun and actually means nothing more than the fun little tradition and news story this has become. Not to be a party-pooper, but regardless of what any animal predicts, the weather is going to do what it is going to do, and we like to peek out 15 days every blog, but the focus will always be on the first 5 days. So here we go, starting today, Groundhog Day, with a mainly dry and chilly day. However, an approaching cold front may trigger scattered snow showers and snow squalls this afternoon and evening, so be on the look-out for those especially if traveling. Squalls don’t usually last more than a few to several minutes, but can bring visibility way down and rapidly coat the ground with snow, making untreated surfaces slippery. This front will usher in the coldest air we have seen in a while for Friday and Saturday, though this will not be an excessively cold air mass by February standards. By Sunday, we’ll start to see moderation as low pressure approaches from the west. This system is likely to be split into 2 parts, with the focus of energy being both well north and well south of southern New England, leaving this area in between with just some snow and rain showers later Sunday or Sunday evening. By Monday, this system will be offshore and moving away, with fair and chilly weather expected.
TODAY: Sun and clouds. Scattered snow showers and snow squalls this afternoon. Any squalls may be briefly heavy with quick coatings of snow. Highs 32-37 central MA to southern NH, 37-42 elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially near any snow squalls.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with scattered to isolated snow showers and snow squalls. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 13-18 interior, 18-23 coast. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. PM rain/snow showers. Lows 18-25. Highs 35-42.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
The timing of the next low pressure system brings the threat of unsettled weather back for February 7-8, with the very early indications for a snow/mix threat February 7 and a milder push of air with rain showers for February 8 as low pressure would pass north of the region. This is not set in stone yet so check back for updates. Drier, windy, colder weather would follow this for mid period with more tranquil weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
A couple of weak systems may bring light precipitation threats. At the moment, this does not look like a very stormy nor very cold stretch. Will watch for changes.

82 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Thank you TK

    As Todd Gross used to say, if it is only six more weeks of winter in New England, we are getting off easy !

    1. I liked Todd Gross. Always enjoyed his broadcasts. I wonder what the real
      story was there? Channel 7 Bull Crap probably. It’s a shame, because he
      was good.

        1. Heard a lot from Pete who is not the type to lie. I worked very closely with Todd on the Weather spotters network. I also created the weather spotters webpage for BZ. Todd had us to the studio on a few occasions. He was truly nice to work with……until he wasn’t. I understand he was upset and I cannot blame him but his true colors shone brightly once he was let go.

    1. I wouldn’t get your hopes up. Keep watching the model runs and look at the trends.

      The only caveat is that wherever that next system tracks, it will be bumping
      into a very Strong High with rather COLD temperatures. Thus, there is likely
      to be a period of Frozen precipitation of some sort and it “could” be an
      extended period. Likely snow transitioning to Sleet and then rain along the coast and perhaps some freezing rain inland. That’s the norm with these set ups.

      However, each one is different in it’s own way. Will there be some sort
      of coastal surface reflection? even IF weak, it could be enough to cause
      an ice storm inland. IF NO redevelop weak, strong or otherwise, it’s just
      a matter of time before it goes over to RAIN. The stronger the system
      and no coastal, the faster it goes to rain.

      Quite honestly, on the GFS, I see “Hints” of some sort of coastal, perhaps
      too weak, but something. Waiting on the 12Z runs.

      Please see below screen shot with pressure weakness off the coast. Hint of coastal????

      http://imgur.com/a/LEyjZ

      1. I know it’s out there, and I know there is a high degree of
        uncertaintly, but bumping into that Cold High, is there
        any chance some sort of redevelopment could occur?
        Not necessarily making it an all snow event near the coast,
        but perhaps enough to keep it all snow up North and interesting
        inland?

        Probably not, but something to watch at least?

        With the prospects of tons of rain, is there not much else one can do???? 😀

        1. There is a chance still that the bulk of the system including the low Center passes over or just south of New England. Recall SAK’s recent comment.

          1. Of course I recall SAK’s comments.

            I understand that, but IF it doesn’t, is there
            any chance at all for some sort of coastal redevelopment or even a weak surface reflection
            to keep winds North or NE?

            1. There’s quite a few members of the GFS Ensemble with a redevelopment near or just south of New England.

              http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020206/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_31.png

              The thing is, you don’t even need a secondary. All you need is for the warm front to get hung up to the south, and the snow the previous day only increases the chances of that happening. The models ALWAYS try and push the warm air in way too fast with these systems. The reality is that we end up with low-level cold air at the surface across the interior hanging around, and we end up with much more wintry weather than the models are showing. This happened just last week. And yet, every time the models show a big warm up ahead of a storm, everyone buys it hook, line, and sinker, thinking this will be the time the models are right and the warm air just floods right in. I’d seen this happen hundreds of times and have been burned in the past, so I refuse to get sucked in every time now. TK and I were having a private laugh the other day when the models were forecasting 60s around here next week. My exact line to him was “GFS has 60s on Thu. I’m guessing that it’s going to be off by 20+ degrees in some areas, especially S NH/Merrimack Valley.”

    1. Nope – didn’t get any worse. Sun trying to break through. My guess is there might have been some squalls (even if minor) nearby.

    1. Meaty? as in Beef? will anyone be asking: “Where’s the Beef?”
      Chicken? Turkey? Lamb? venison? Pork?

      I know it’s pork as we’ll get PORKED!

  12. I love this BULL SHIT!!!

    System 1 is a CUTTER.
    System 2 is OUT TO SEA.

    We can’t win. This sucks.

    Yes, I know, I know, I know. Why get alarmed when it is so far out there.
    Energy no where near to where it can be sampled properly. Believe me I am well
    aware of all of that.

    STILL, I have an emotional reactions to seeing this CRAP in the model runs.

    BRING ON SPRING!

    2. The GFS really hasn’t changed it’s tune at all from previous runs, so I think you’re confused. Your “Out-to-sea” System 2 is actually System 3, and has been forecast by the GFS to stay well to the south the entire time. As for the warm air coming in faster, please see the comment I write just a few moments ago.

      1. The only thing I said that has changed was the snow amounts
        depicted on the InstantWeathermaps for the 12Z run. They are clearly down from the 0Z and 6Z runs. That’s all I said that has changed.

        AS far as system 1, 2 or 3, it’s all semantics. I don’t consider
        system 1 to be anything at all. So for me, system 1 is the 2/7-2/8 system and system 2 is the 2/10 ots job.

        If you think I am confused, you got it all wrong.

        1. “System 1 is the 2/7-2/8 system” – there’s the problem. That’s 2 separate systems right there.

          You also said that the GFS has it becoming warmer faster than previously – that’s a second change.

          So yes, you are clearly confused.

          1. Please explain how 2/7-2/8 is 2 separate systems?

            #1.
            http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png
            #2.
            http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png
            #3.
            http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

            Please explain what I am missing in there.

            As far as the GFS getting warmer. Yes, I said it, because it had it changing to Rain sooner.
            If it’s not warmer who gives a rat’s ass, it’s the same result: less snow.

            1. What are you missing? You’re looking at the surface only.

              The warm front extends east from the main system and a little impulse runs along it first Monday night/Tuesday. It doesn’t have much of a surface reflection, but it is a separate piece of energy. Then the main system comes through on Wednesday.

              That is 2 separate systems in my book (and I’m sure TK would agree).

  13. Thanks, TK.

    Sun is strong today. Reminds us that spring is approaching, whether in 6 weeks or not.

    Vicki, thanks for sharing the story of Mac being in Italy during the time of the Red Brigades and also neo-fascist terror. I arrived in Europe in the fall of 1980, a month after a neo-fascist group bombed the Bologna train station, killing 85 people. Even the Oktoberfest in Munich wasn’t spared as a neo-nazi group bombed it, killing 13 people and wounding scores more. In Europe, for a long, long time far-left and far-right extremists, radical Islamic groups, the IRA, and Basque separatists have carried out thousands of terror attacks.

  14. Well, regardless what happens with the Tues/Wed storm, it’s not looking too promising moving into Mid February if you like winter. Inferno across most of North America on the CFS model:

    https://s27.postimg.org/951xhfpn7/CFS_model.jpg

    Question is – how long do we slip back into the warmth and is there still potential for a colder, stormier pattern as we head into later Feb and early March?

      1. Euro weeklies were warm too. Although those weeklies are the “weakest” part of that product in my opinion.

  15. Nice little 45-minute snow squall/flurries and then “sun squall” noonish to about 12:45 in Middleborough. (“The ‘Boro!”)

  16. Mark, we’re running out of time. Even though last winter was mild, it did include two very cold periods, albeit brief. This winter will likely have no period of frigid cold. I believe Boston’s been in the single digits once this winter (!). Well, that may be all that she wrote this year as I don’t see anything close to single digits in Boston in the short- and mid-range outlook.

  17. What I’m watching for, short, medium, and longer term…

    *A quiet 4 days ahead, starting out cool but warming later in the weekend with the Sunday rain/snow shower chance. That was the system originally forecast to be a moderate to major storm by the models. Long range fail on that one.
    *Tuesday/Wednesday storm. Too early for details, but at this point the most likely scenario would seem to be some front end snow/ice, with a change to rain. Colder air moves in behind it late next week.
    *Mid-late February remains a tough call. I see two valid options. One is a coast-to-coast blowtorch for most of the mid and late month, a la the CFS and some other weekly guidance. The other keeps the warmth concentrated in the west-central US and leaves the East as a battleground, sort of like what the 12z GFS is showing. I lean more towards the latter at this point. For our region, that would mean up and down temperatures. Probably not very favorable for big snows, with mainly northern stream systems rotating through. But as usual at that range, it’s very much subject to change.

  18. By the way, the 12z Euro has backed off with the front end snow/ice on the Tuesday storm as well, only showing an inch or two at best. Mostly a rain storm. Still plenty of time though for a somewhat colder solution but with no -NAO I cannot see much reason to believe that this storm wouldn’t cut west. Question is how much cold air damming occurs ahead of it and how long of a period of snow/ice we get before the changeover.

    1. Perhaps it may be time to give up on anything resembling significant snow for the remainder of the winter. Even though the groundhog says otherwise, if I am not mistaken, today is the halfway point in the winter season anyway. Time is running out calendar-wise.

      1. The groundhog’s forecast is irrelevant, and February 2 marks the 1/2 way point of winter weather, from a climate standpoint.

        I’m not sure why people give up on winter when we can hardly see beyond 3 days in advance with any accuracy.

        We have a very, very long way to go here.

  21. Looks as if we are in need of some positives. Sun is out. It is 4:24 and the sky is a crystal blue. There are huge cotton balls in the sky. Sun does not set until 5:04:25 and I have a amazing dashboard that gives me that info. The air smells clean and fresh. We are alive to enjoy everything about today.

    I’ll take it.

    Is winter over? Not until March. Are significant snows over (which is kind of what I suspect folks mean when they say winter is over). Heck….Vicki’s internal weather station said so a while ago. And we all know exactly how accurate my methods are so you can place your money on…………….oh well, you pick.

    Just remember….GettingBetter endorsed it.

    1. Perfect. And we’ll be shoveling and plowing again before the end of March, probably more than once.

      1. See how well my system works….although to be fair, I don’t think of it as a real storm until it hits at least 10 inches. Under that it is just an ahhhhhhh moment 🙂

  23. Last two runs of GFS have offshore storm late next week. Hopefully this could move closer. 18z GFS has it clipping Cape and Islands with some snow.

    1. That will probably be further offshore than the GFS currently has it.

      GFS is struggling mightily.

  24. TK, you make a valid point about winter being at the halfway point. I apologize for complaining a bit. My excuse is that I so much look forward to this season, and it hasn’t been much to write home about. Well, I do enjoy afternoons and evenings like today. Just something about fresh, cold air that gets me going and makes me feel alive. Heck, I open my windows a crack on evenings like this to air out my place with wintry freshness.

    Vicki, what a glorious picture of the bobcat. At the trailside museum at the foot of blue hill they used to have a bobcat in captivity. As I recall the sign on the bobcat’s cage said that bobcats once roamed the blue hills, but were no longer east of Springfield, Massachusetts. Well clearly, they’re east of Springfield if they’ve reached Sutton. I’m wondering if bobcats have been spotted in the blue hills in recent years?

    1. Great question Joshua. I remember people in Bolton saying they had seen one years ago and being told by wildlife it was not possible. It makes me so happy to see species returning. Now if we can keep from messing it up

      1. That will end when someone’s pet or baby gets attacked. Everything balances in nature and that beauty has a price.

        1. If man encroaches on nature, then man needs to learn to deal with the consequence. By destroying species, we kill far more than just one child. So if it does end, it is due to mans self righteous belief it is superior. Destroying species is what has a price.

          1. Thank you Vicki, WeatherWiz humans are the worse animals on earth . How would you like it if animals relocated/killed you for being human?

    2. Oh you’re allowed to voice your opinion, complaint or not. I was just setting the facts down about where we stand in terms of the “winter weather season”.

      Just because models don’t show much through a certain time doesn’t mean a thing. As SAK has stated and I have reminded, the models have been CRAP beyond a few days for weeks, even months. There could be a major turn to snow-fest under 2 weeks away and we may not even have a clue. Not saying that is coming, I’m just using it as an example.

    3. If the Farmers’ Almanac is correct Mid Atlantic to SNE you could have that snow fest between 16th -19th with a small but intense area of low pressure delivering one to two feet.

  27. I must say that our many snow lovers passion and their acute frustration actually make me yearn for a big storm or two to come to fruition before we close the books on the 2016-2017 winter season for their sakes – and that is something unprecedented – for me to be pulling for snow. So JPDave, Joshua et al please don’t reign it in for my sake. You guys make this season enjoyable even for a snow-a-phobe like me. It makes me happy that you guys are so happy when it snows. Also I think we are all so lucky to have Vicki’s incredible optimism and consistently positive outlook – would be it that all of us could learn to appreciate the many things we take for granted every day as well as she does!

    1. Good evening, GettingBetter….to be honest I’ve been an emotional wreck for two weeks….I was working on positive thoughts for me also. I hid it well eh? You should see my blog postings. 😉 But you are right. We need to focus on that. And if you really want a big storm, I could have a heart to heart chat with the internal Vicki weather station

      1. You definitely hid it well! Hope everything is “getting better”! And yes – ok to authorize your internal weather station to allow 2 big storms for the others. But two only please!! 🙂

    1. I saw someone on a FB page run by someone without a degree remark that “this winter sucks!” … back in late November.

    2. I remember it all to well! Thus I’m trying not to get too cocky or self assured – I keep reminding myself of the April Fool’s Day storm. We are not out of the woods yet – by a long shot. Or for the snow lovers out there “The woods are lovely dark and deep” – remember that this winter still has “miles to go” before she sleeps. Fitting to write this now as Frost wrote this poem at sunrise on a winter day…

      1. I have a book specific to the poem on my livingroom shelves. It is a poem that reminds me of my dad. We read it at his memorial. The words always called to me

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